Ball State Cardinals v Louisville Cardinals — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 12 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027
NCAAW results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Ball State Cardinals win
10.7%
Draw
0.0%
Louisville Cardinals win
89.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nba-normal | 67.46–81.04 | 67-81 0% | 50% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
Century marks 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State Cardinals to score 100+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0.20× | 283.35 |
| Ball State Cardinals to score 110+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.64× | 283.36 |
| Ball State Cardinals to score 120+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 2.91× | 283.36 |
| Ball State Cardinals to score 130+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 7.58× | 283.36 |
| Louisville Cardinals to score 100+ | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.72× | 282.89 |
| Louisville Cardinals to score 110+ | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 4.74× | 283.33 |
| Louisville Cardinals to score 120+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 18.95× | 283.36 |
| Louisville Cardinals to score 130+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 37.89× | 283.36 |
| Both sides to score 100+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 6.32× | 283.36 |
H1 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals to win H1 | 75.6% | 79.2% | 39.9% | 1.98× | 1.26 |
| Ball State Cardinals to win H1 | 21.0% | 21.4% | 56.4% | 0.38× | 4.68 |
| H1 tied | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.05× | 25.86 |
H1 total 22
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 under 83.5 | 89.2% | 87.7% | 96.8% | 0.91× | 1.14 |
| H1 over 59.5 | 86.9% | 87.7% | 57.8% | 1.52× | 1.14 |
| H1 under 79.5 | 80.1% | 82.5% | 93.9% | 0.88× | 1.21 |
| H1 over 63.5 | 76.6% | 77.4% | 42.9% | 1.80× | 1.29 |
| H1 under 76.5 | 70.9% | 73.5% | 90.2% | 0.81× | 1.36 |
| H1 over 66.5 | 66.7% | 67.4% | 32.9% | 2.05× | 1.48 |
| H1 under 74.5 | 63.8% | 62.7% | 87.2% | 0.72× | 1.59 |
| H1 over 68.5 | 59.3% | 58.2% | 26.5% | 2.20× | 1.72 |
| H1 under 72.5 | 56.3% | 58.2% | 83.6% | 0.70× | 1.72 |
| H1 under 71.5 | 52.4% | 52.6% | 81.4% | 0.65× | 1.90 |
| H1 over 70.5 | 51.5% | 52.6% | 21.1% | 2.50× | 1.90 |
| H1 under 70.5 | 48.5% | 47.4% | 78.9% | 0.60× | 2.11 |
| H1 over 71.5 | 47.6% | 47.4% | 18.6% | 2.55× | 2.11 |
| H1 over 72.5 | 43.7% | 41.8% | 16.4% | 2.55× | 2.39 |
| H1 under 68.5 | 40.7% | 41.8% | 73.5% | 0.57× | 2.39 |
| H1 over 74.5 | 36.2% | 37.3% | 12.8% | 2.90× | 2.68 |
| H1 under 66.5 | 33.3% | 32.6% | 67.1% | 0.49× | 3.07 |
| H1 over 76.5 | 29.1% | 26.5% | 9.8% | 2.71× | 3.77 |
| H1 under 63.5 | 23.4% | 22.6% | 57.1% | 0.40× | 4.43 |
| H1 over 79.5 | 19.9% | 17.5% | 6.1% | 2.85× | 5.72 |
| H1 under 59.5 | 13.1% | 12.3% | 42.2% | 0.29× | 8.14 |
| H1 over 83.5 | 10.8% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 3.89× | 8.14 |
H2 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals to win H2 | 77.0% | 73.9% | 40.6% | 1.82× | 1.35 |
| Ball State Cardinals to win H2 | 19.8% | 20.5% | 56.0% | 0.37× | 4.89 |
| H2 tied | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.16× | 25.36 |
H2 total 22
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H2 over 65.5 | 87.2% | 85.2% | 58.8% | 1.45× | 1.17 |
| H2 under 89.5 | 86.6% | 85.2% | 94.8% | 0.90× | 1.17 |
| H2 over 69.5 | 77.7% | 75.8% | 45.2% | 1.68× | 1.32 |
| H2 under 85.5 | 76.9% | 75.8% | 91.2% | 0.83× | 1.32 |
| H2 over 72.5 | 68.5% | 66.4% | 36.0% | 1.85× | 1.51 |
| H2 under 82.5 | 67.6% | 66.4% | 87.4% | 0.76× | 1.51 |
| H2 over 74.5 | 61.5% | 61.6% | 30.1% | 2.05× | 1.62 |
| H2 under 80.5 | 60.6% | 61.6% | 84.0% | 0.73× | 1.62 |
| H2 over 76.5 | 54.2% | 52.4% | 24.4% | 2.15× | 1.91 |
| H2 under 78.5 | 53.2% | 52.4% | 80.1% | 0.65× | 1.91 |
| H2 over 77.5 | 50.5% | 52.4% | 22.1% | 2.37× | 1.91 |
| H2 under 77.5 | 49.5% | 47.6% | 77.9% | 0.61× | 2.10 |
| H2 over 78.5 | 46.8% | 47.6% | 19.9% | 2.40× | 2.10 |
| H2 under 76.5 | 45.8% | 47.6% | 75.6% | 0.63× | 2.10 |
| H2 over 80.5 | 39.4% | 38.4% | 16.0% | 2.40× | 2.61 |
| H2 under 74.5 | 38.5% | 38.4% | 69.9% | 0.55× | 2.61 |
| H2 over 82.5 | 32.4% | 33.6% | 12.6% | 2.67× | 2.97 |
| H2 under 72.5 | 31.5% | 33.6% | 64.1% | 0.53× | 2.97 |
| H2 over 85.5 | 23.1% | 24.2% | 8.8% | 2.76× | 4.13 |
| H2 under 69.5 | 22.3% | 24.2% | 54.8% | 0.44× | 4.13 |
| H2 under 65.5 | 12.8% | 14.8% | 41.2% | 0.36× | 6.76 |
| H2 over 89.5 | 13.4% | 14.8% | 5.2% | 2.84× | 6.76 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals leading at half time | 75.6% | 79.6% | 39.9% | 2.00× | 1.26 |
| Ball State Cardinals leading at half time | 21.0% | 20.9% | 56.4% | 0.37× | 4.78 |
| Level at half time | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.03× | 26.41 |
Handicap 60
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals +14.5 | 99.4% | 97.4% | 72.1% | 1.35× | 1.03 |
| Louisville Cardinals +16.5 | 99.6% | 97.4% | 75.7% | 1.29× | 1.03 |
| Louisville Cardinals +18.5 | 99.8% | 97.4% | 79.3% | 1.23× | 1.03 |
| Louisville Cardinals +20.5 | 99.9% | 97.4% | 82.0% | 1.19× | 1.03 |
| Louisville Cardinals +6.5 | 96.2% | 97.4% | 52.4% | 1.86× | 1.03 |
| Louisville Cardinals +7.5 | 96.9% | 97.4% | 55.2% | 1.76× | 1.03 |
| Louisville Cardinals +8.5 | 97.5% | 97.4% | 58.0% | 1.68× | 1.03 |
| Louisville Cardinals +9.5 | 98.0% | 97.4% | 60.7% | 1.61× | 1.03 |
| Louisville Cardinals +10.5 | 98.4% | 97.4% | 63.2% | 1.54× | 1.03 |
| Louisville Cardinals +12.5 | 99.0% | 97.4% | 67.9% | 1.44× | 1.03 |
| Louisville Cardinals +5.5 | 95.4% | 97.4% | 50.3% | 1.94× | 1.03 |
| Louisville Cardinals +4.5 | 94.5% | 91.1% | 47.8% | 1.90× | 1.10 |
| Louisville Cardinals +2.5 | 92.2% | 91.1% | 43.3% | 2.11× | 1.10 |
| Louisville Cardinals +3.5 | 93.4% | 91.1% | 45.8% | 1.99× | 1.10 |
| Louisville Cardinals +1.5 | 90.8% | 91.1% | 41.3% | 2.21× | 1.10 |
| Louisville Cardinals −1.5 | 87.3% | 85.9% | 38.8% | 2.22× | 1.16 |
| Louisville Cardinals −2.5 | 85.2% | 85.9% | 36.7% | 2.34× | 1.16 |
| Louisville Cardinals −3.5 | 82.9% | 81.1% | 34.3% | 2.36× | 1.23 |
| Louisville Cardinals −4.5 | 80.4% | 81.1% | 32.2% | 2.52× | 1.23 |
| Louisville Cardinals −5.5 | 77.7% | 76.5% | 29.9% | 2.56× | 1.31 |
| Louisville Cardinals −6.5 | 74.8% | 71.6% | 27.7% | 2.58× | 1.40 |
| Ball State Cardinals +20.5 | 72.7% | 71.6% | 92.7% | 0.77× | 1.40 |
| Louisville Cardinals −7.5 | 71.7% | 71.6% | 25.5% | 2.81× | 1.40 |
| Louisville Cardinals −8.5 | 68.5% | 66.7% | 23.5% | 2.83× | 1.50 |
| Ball State Cardinals +18.5 | 66.4% | 66.7% | 91.1% | 0.73× | 1.50 |
| Louisville Cardinals −9.5 | 65.2% | 66.7% | 21.3% | 3.13× | 1.50 |
| Louisville Cardinals −10.5 | 61.8% | 61.9% | 19.6% | 3.16× | 1.62 |
| Ball State Cardinals +16.5 | 59.6% | 57.1% | 89.1% | 0.64× | 1.75 |
| Louisville Cardinals −12.5 | 54.7% | 52.4% | 16.2% | 3.23× | 1.91 |
| Ball State Cardinals +14.5 | 52.5% | 52.4% | 86.7% | 0.60× | 1.91 |
| Louisville Cardinals −14.5 | 47.5% | 47.6% | 13.3% | 3.59× | 2.10 |
| Ball State Cardinals +12.5 | 45.3% | 47.6% | 83.8% | 0.57× | 2.10 |
| Louisville Cardinals −16.5 | 40.4% | 42.9% | 10.9% | 3.95× | 2.33 |
| Ball State Cardinals +10.5 | 38.2% | 38.1% | 80.4% | 0.47× | 2.63 |
| Ball State Cardinals +9.5 | 34.8% | 33.3% | 78.7% | 0.42× | 3.01 |
| Louisville Cardinals −18.5 | 33.6% | 33.3% | 8.9% | 3.73× | 3.01 |
| Ball State Cardinals +8.5 | 31.5% | 33.3% | 76.5% | 0.44× | 3.01 |
| Ball State Cardinals +7.5 | 28.3% | 28.4% | 74.5% | 0.38× | 3.53 |
| Louisville Cardinals −20.5 | 27.3% | 28.4% | 7.3% | 3.90× | 3.53 |
| Ball State Cardinals +6.5 | 25.2% | 28.4% | 72.3% | 0.39× | 3.53 |
| Ball State Cardinals +5.5 | 22.3% | 23.5% | 70.1% | 0.34× | 4.25 |
| Ball State Cardinals +4.5 | 19.6% | 18.9% | 67.8% | 0.28× | 5.29 |
| Ball State Cardinals +3.5 | 17.1% | 18.9% | 65.7% | 0.29× | 5.29 |
| Ball State Cardinals +2.5 | 14.8% | 14.1% | 63.3% | 0.22× | 7.09 |
| Ball State Cardinals +1.5 | 12.7% | 14.1% | 61.2% | 0.23× | 7.09 |
| Ball State Cardinals −1.5 | 9.2% | 8.9% | 58.7% | 0.15× | 11.25 |
| Ball State Cardinals −2.5 | 7.8% | 8.9% | 56.7% | 0.16× | 11.25 |
| Ball State Cardinals −3.5 | 6.6% | 8.9% | 54.2% | 0.16× | 11.25 |
| Ball State Cardinals −4.5 | 5.5% | 8.9% | 52.2% | 0.17× | 11.25 |
| Ball State Cardinals −5.5 | 4.6% | 2.6% | 49.7% | 0.05× | 38.72 |
| Ball State Cardinals −6.5 | 3.8% | 2.6% | 47.6% | 0.05× | 38.73 |
| Ball State Cardinals −7.5 | 3.1% | 2.6% | 44.8% | 0.06× | 38.73 |
| Ball State Cardinals −8.5 | 2.5% | 2.6% | 42.0% | 0.06× | 38.73 |
| Ball State Cardinals −9.5 | 2.1% | 2.6% | 39.3% | 0.07× | 38.73 |
| Ball State Cardinals −10.5 | 1.6% | 2.6% | 36.8% | 0.07× | 38.73 |
| Ball State Cardinals −12.5 | 1.0% | 2.6% | 32.1% | 0.08× | 38.74 |
| Ball State Cardinals −14.5 | 0.6% | 2.6% | 27.9% | 0.09× | 38.74 |
| Ball State Cardinals −16.5 | 0.4% | 2.6% | 24.3% | 0.11× | 38.74 |
| Ball State Cardinals −18.5 | 0.2% | 2.6% | 20.7% | 0.12× | 38.74 |
| Ball State Cardinals −20.5 | 0.1% | 2.6% | 18.0% | 0.14× | 38.74 |
Highest scoring half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 74.6% | 67.1% | 66.7% | 1.01× | 1.49 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 25.4% | 32.9% | 33.3% | 0.99× | 3.04 |
Highest scoring quarter 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 highest scoring | 33.7% | 31.9% | 31.3% | 1.02× | 3.14 |
| Q4 highest scoring | 35.4% | 28.6% | 31.2% | 0.92× | 3.50 |
| Q2 highest scoring | 14.7% | 18.3% | 17.9% | 1.03× | 5.45 |
| Q1 highest scoring | 16.3% | 18.3% | 19.6% | 0.94× | 5.46 |
HT/FT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals at HT / Louisville Cardinals at FT | 72.1% | 73.2% | 30.1% | 2.43× | 1.37 |
| Ball State Cardinals at HT / Louisville Cardinals at FT | 14.3% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 1.49× | 8.17 |
| Ball State Cardinals at HT / Ball State Cardinals at FT | 6.7% | 8.3% | 48.3% | 0.17× | 12.09 |
| Level at HT / Louisville Cardinals at FT | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.20× | 47.74 |
| Louisville Cardinals at HT / Ball State Cardinals at FT | 3.5% | 2.1% | 9.8% | 0.21× | 47.73 |
| Level at HT / Ball State Cardinals at FT | 0.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.09× | 47.78 |
Moneyline 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals to win | 89.3% | 85.6% | 40.1% | 2.14× | 1.17 |
| Ball State Cardinals to win | 10.7% | 14.4% | 59.9% | 0.24× | 6.93 |
Odd/Even 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State Cardinals even | 50.0% | 50.5% | 49.4% | 1.02× | 1.98 |
| Louisville Cardinals even | 50.0% | 50.5% | 50.1% | 1.01× | 1.98 |
| Total points odd | 50.9% | 50.5% | 51.5% | 0.98× | 1.98 |
| Ball State Cardinals odd | 50.0% | 49.5% | 50.6% | 0.98× | 2.02 |
| Louisville Cardinals odd | 50.0% | 49.5% | 49.9% | 0.99× | 2.02 |
| Total points even | 49.1% | 49.5% | 48.5% | 1.02× | 2.02 |
Overtime 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No overtime | 96.2% | 97.0% | 95.6% | 1.02× | 1.03 |
| Match to go to overtime | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 0.68× | 33.40 |
Q1 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals to win Q1 | 66.7% | 72.2% | 40.4% | 1.79× | 1.38 |
| Ball State Cardinals to win Q1 | 27.9% | 22.4% | 54.7% | 0.41× | 4.46 |
| Q1 tied | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 1.11× | 18.33 |
Q1 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 over 27.5 | 88.5% | 87.4% | 67.7% | 1.29× | 1.14 |
| Q1 under 43.5 | 87.7% | 87.4% | 95.0% | 0.92× | 1.14 |
| Q1 over 30.5 | 77.5% | 76.9% | 51.2% | 1.50× | 1.30 |
| Q1 under 40.5 | 76.3% | 76.9% | 89.9% | 0.86× | 1.30 |
| Q1 over 32.5 | 67.8% | 67.6% | 40.9% | 1.65× | 1.48 |
| Q1 under 38.5 | 66.4% | 67.6% | 84.8% | 0.80× | 1.48 |
| Q1 over 34.5 | 56.6% | 58.6% | 31.5% | 1.86× | 1.71 |
| Q1 under 36.5 | 55.1% | 58.6% | 77.4% | 0.76× | 1.71 |
| Q1 over 35.5 | 50.8% | 52.7% | 26.8% | 1.96× | 1.90 |
| Q1 under 35.5 | 49.2% | 47.3% | 73.2% | 0.65× | 2.11 |
| Q1 over 36.5 | 44.9% | 41.4% | 22.6% | 1.83× | 2.42 |
| Q1 under 34.5 | 43.4% | 41.4% | 68.5% | 0.60× | 2.42 |
| Q1 over 38.5 | 33.6% | 32.4% | 15.2% | 2.13× | 3.08 |
| Q1 under 32.5 | 32.2% | 32.4% | 59.1% | 0.55× | 3.08 |
| Q1 over 40.5 | 23.7% | 23.1% | 10.1% | 2.29× | 4.33 |
| Q1 under 30.5 | 22.5% | 23.1% | 48.8% | 0.47× | 4.33 |
| Q1 over 43.5 | 12.3% | 12.6% | 5.0% | 2.53× | 7.95 |
| Q1 under 27.5 | 11.5% | 12.6% | 32.3% | 0.39× | 7.95 |
Q2 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals to win Q2 | 66.2% | 68.3% | 41.5% | 1.65× | 1.46 |
| Ball State Cardinals to win Q2 | 28.4% | 27.7% | 52.9% | 0.52× | 3.60 |
| Q2 tied | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 1.06× | 16.50 |
Q2 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 under 43.5 | 88.7% | 87.3% | 95.7% | 0.91× | 1.15 |
| Q2 over 27.5 | 87.4% | 87.3% | 66.7% | 1.31× | 1.15 |
| Q2 under 40.5 | 78.0% | 76.8% | 90.8% | 0.85× | 1.30 |
| Q2 over 30.5 | 75.9% | 76.8% | 49.9% | 1.54× | 1.30 |
| Q2 under 38.5 | 68.3% | 67.4% | 85.6% | 0.79× | 1.49 |
| Q2 over 32.5 | 65.8% | 67.4% | 39.2% | 1.72× | 1.49 |
| Q2 under 36.5 | 57.2% | 58.2% | 78.7% | 0.74× | 1.72 |
| Q2 over 34.5 | 54.5% | 52.7% | 29.9% | 1.76× | 1.90 |
| Q2 under 35.5 | 51.4% | 52.7% | 74.6% | 0.71× | 1.90 |
| Q2 over 35.5 | 48.6% | 47.3% | 25.4% | 1.86× | 2.11 |
| Q2 under 34.5 | 45.5% | 47.3% | 70.1% | 0.68× | 2.11 |
| Q2 over 36.5 | 42.8% | 41.8% | 21.3% | 1.97× | 2.39 |
| Q2 under 32.5 | 34.2% | 32.6% | 60.8% | 0.54× | 3.06 |
| Q2 over 38.5 | 31.7% | 32.6% | 14.4% | 2.26× | 3.06 |
| Q2 under 30.5 | 24.1% | 23.2% | 50.1% | 0.46× | 4.31 |
| Q2 over 40.5 | 22.0% | 23.2% | 9.2% | 2.53× | 4.31 |
| Q2 under 27.5 | 12.6% | 12.7% | 33.3% | 0.38× | 7.89 |
| Q2 over 43.5 | 11.3% | 12.7% | 4.3% | 2.94× | 7.90 |
Q3 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals to win Q3 | 67.9% | 66.7% | 41.8% | 1.60× | 1.50 |
| Ball State Cardinals to win Q3 | 27.0% | 28.8% | 53.3% | 0.54× | 3.47 |
| Q3 tied | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 1.07× | 18.98 |
Q3 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 under 47.5 | 89.4% | 87.2% | 96.3% | 0.91× | 1.15 |
| Q3 over 31.5 | 85.2% | 87.2% | 61.6% | 1.42× | 1.15 |
| Q3 under 44.5 | 79.4% | 77.3% | 92.1% | 0.84× | 1.29 |
| Q3 over 34.5 | 73.0% | 71.8% | 45.4% | 1.58× | 1.39 |
| Q3 under 42.5 | 70.3% | 71.8% | 87.8% | 0.82× | 1.39 |
| Q3 over 36.5 | 62.8% | 61.9% | 35.4% | 1.75× | 1.61 |
| Q3 under 40.5 | 59.7% | 58.4% | 81.9% | 0.71× | 1.71 |
| Q3 under 39.5 | 54.1% | 52.3% | 77.9% | 0.67× | 1.91 |
| Q3 over 38.5 | 51.6% | 52.3% | 26.1% | 2.00× | 1.91 |
| Q3 under 38.5 | 48.4% | 47.7% | 73.9% | 0.65× | 2.10 |
| Q3 over 39.5 | 45.9% | 47.7% | 22.1% | 2.16× | 2.10 |
| Q3 over 40.5 | 40.3% | 41.6% | 18.1% | 2.29× | 2.40 |
| Q3 under 36.5 | 37.2% | 38.1% | 64.6% | 0.59× | 2.63 |
| Q3 over 42.5 | 29.7% | 28.2% | 12.2% | 2.32× | 3.55 |
| Q3 under 34.5 | 27.0% | 28.2% | 54.6% | 0.52× | 3.55 |
| Q3 over 44.5 | 20.6% | 22.7% | 7.9% | 2.89× | 4.40 |
| Q3 under 31.5 | 14.8% | 12.8% | 38.4% | 0.33× | 7.83 |
| Q3 over 47.5 | 10.6% | 12.8% | 3.7% | 3.48× | 7.83 |
Q4 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals to win Q4 | 67.6% | 60.6% | 41.5% | 1.46× | 1.65 |
| Ball State Cardinals to win Q4 | 27.4% | 33.3% | 52.8% | 0.63× | 3.00 |
| Q4 tied | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 1.02× | 17.26 |
Q4 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 under 47.5 | 87.9% | 85.6% | 95.3% | 0.90× | 1.17 |
| Q4 over 31.5 | 84.1% | 82.0% | 61.1% | 1.34× | 1.22 |
| Q4 under 44.5 | 77.8% | 76.9% | 90.6% | 0.85× | 1.30 |
| Q4 over 34.5 | 72.2% | 71.5% | 45.6% | 1.57× | 1.40 |
| Q4 under 42.5 | 68.9% | 67.4% | 86.2% | 0.78× | 1.48 |
| Q4 over 36.5 | 62.5% | 61.4% | 35.7% | 1.72× | 1.63 |
| Q4 under 40.5 | 58.8% | 58.4% | 80.6% | 0.72× | 1.71 |
| Q4 under 39.5 | 53.5% | 52.5% | 77.0% | 0.68× | 1.91 |
| Q4 over 38.5 | 51.9% | 52.5% | 26.9% | 1.95× | 1.91 |
| Q4 under 38.5 | 48.1% | 47.5% | 73.1% | 0.65× | 2.11 |
| Q4 over 39.5 | 46.5% | 47.5% | 23.0% | 2.06× | 2.11 |
| Q4 over 40.5 | 41.2% | 41.6% | 19.4% | 2.14× | 2.40 |
| Q4 under 36.5 | 37.5% | 38.6% | 64.3% | 0.60× | 2.59 |
| Q4 over 42.5 | 31.1% | 32.6% | 13.8% | 2.36× | 3.07 |
| Q4 under 34.5 | 27.8% | 28.5% | 54.4% | 0.52× | 3.51 |
| Q4 over 44.5 | 22.2% | 23.1% | 9.4% | 2.45× | 4.33 |
| Q4 under 31.5 | 15.9% | 18.0% | 38.9% | 0.46× | 5.56 |
| Q4 over 47.5 | 12.1% | 14.4% | 4.7% | 3.05× | 6.95 |
Team total 44
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals under 91.5 | 86.8% | 83.9% | 98.2% | 0.85× | 1.19 |
| Ball State Cardinals over 57.5 | 85.1% | 83.9% | 77.2% | 1.09× | 1.19 |
| Ball State Cardinals under 77.5 | 85.7% | 83.9% | 77.4% | 1.08× | 1.19 |
| Louisville Cardinals over 71.5 | 85.2% | 83.9% | 23.9% | 3.50× | 1.19 |
| Louisville Cardinals under 88.5 | 78.6% | 75.1% | 97.1% | 0.77× | 1.33 |
| Ball State Cardinals over 60.5 | 76.5% | 75.1% | 69.5% | 1.08× | 1.33 |
| Ball State Cardinals under 74.5 | 77.4% | 75.1% | 70.7% | 1.06× | 1.33 |
| Louisville Cardinals over 74.5 | 76.4% | 75.1% | 17.7% | 4.24× | 1.33 |
| Louisville Cardinals under 86.5 | 71.8% | 70.7% | 96.1% | 0.74× | 1.41 |
| Ball State Cardinals under 72.5 | 70.6% | 70.7% | 65.7% | 1.08× | 1.41 |
| Ball State Cardinals over 62.5 | 69.5% | 66.4% | 64.3% | 1.03× | 1.51 |
| Louisville Cardinals over 76.5 | 69.3% | 66.4% | 14.2% | 4.68× | 1.51 |
| Louisville Cardinals under 84.5 | 64.0% | 61.2% | 94.7% | 0.65× | 1.63 |
| Ball State Cardinals under 70.5 | 63.0% | 61.2% | 60.3% | 1.01× | 1.63 |
| Ball State Cardinals over 64.5 | 61.8% | 61.2% | 58.4% | 1.05× | 1.63 |
| Louisville Cardinals over 78.5 | 61.4% | 61.2% | 11.7% | 5.24× | 1.63 |
| Louisville Cardinals under 82.5 | 55.7% | 57.1% | 93.0% | 0.61× | 1.75 |
| Ball State Cardinals under 68.5 | 54.9% | 52.3% | 54.4% | 0.96× | 1.91 |
| Ball State Cardinals over 66.5 | 53.5% | 52.3% | 51.8% | 1.01× | 1.91 |
| Louisville Cardinals over 80.5 | 52.9% | 52.3% | 9.0% | 5.80× | 1.91 |
| Louisville Cardinals under 81.5 | 51.4% | 52.3% | 92.0% | 0.57× | 1.91 |
| Ball State Cardinals under 67.5 | 50.7% | 52.3% | 51.3% | 1.02× | 1.91 |
| Ball State Cardinals over 67.5 | 49.3% | 47.7% | 48.7% | 0.98× | 2.09 |
| Ball State Cardinals under 66.5 | 46.5% | 47.7% | 48.2% | 0.99× | 2.09 |
| Louisville Cardinals under 80.5 | 47.1% | 47.7% | 91.0% | 0.52× | 2.09 |
| Louisville Cardinals over 81.5 | 48.6% | 47.7% | 8.0% | 5.95× | 2.09 |
| Ball State Cardinals over 68.5 | 45.1% | 47.7% | 45.6% | 1.05× | 2.09 |
| Louisville Cardinals over 82.5 | 44.3% | 42.9% | 7.0% | 6.16× | 2.33 |
| Ball State Cardinals under 64.5 | 38.2% | 38.8% | 41.6% | 0.93× | 2.58 |
| Louisville Cardinals under 78.5 | 38.6% | 38.8% | 88.3% | 0.44× | 2.58 |
| Ball State Cardinals over 70.5 | 37.0% | 38.8% | 39.7% | 0.98× | 2.58 |
| Louisville Cardinals over 84.5 | 36.0% | 38.8% | 5.3% | 7.28× | 2.58 |
| Ball State Cardinals under 62.5 | 30.5% | 33.6% | 35.7% | 0.94× | 2.98 |
| Louisville Cardinals under 76.5 | 30.7% | 33.6% | 85.8% | 0.39× | 2.98 |
| Ball State Cardinals over 72.5 | 29.4% | 29.3% | 34.3% | 0.85× | 3.42 |
| Louisville Cardinals over 86.5 | 28.2% | 29.3% | 3.9% | 7.47× | 3.42 |
| Ball State Cardinals under 60.5 | 23.5% | 24.9% | 30.5% | 0.81× | 4.02 |
| Ball State Cardinals over 74.5 | 22.6% | 24.9% | 29.3% | 0.85× | 4.02 |
| Louisville Cardinals under 74.5 | 23.6% | 24.9% | 82.3% | 0.30× | 4.02 |
| Louisville Cardinals over 88.5 | 21.4% | 24.9% | 2.9% | 8.62× | 4.02 |
| Ball State Cardinals under 57.5 | 14.9% | 16.1% | 22.8% | 0.70× | 6.21 |
| Ball State Cardinals over 77.5 | 14.3% | 16.1% | 22.6% | 0.71× | 6.21 |
| Louisville Cardinals under 71.5 | 14.8% | 16.1% | 76.1% | 0.21× | 6.21 |
| Louisville Cardinals over 91.5 | 13.2% | 16.1% | 1.8% | 8.73× | 6.21 |
Total points 30
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 168.5 points | 90.7% | 88.8% | 97.2% | 0.91× | 1.13 |
| Over 128.5 points | 90.9% | 88.8% | 52.8% | 1.68× | 1.13 |
| Under 163.5 points | 84.0% | 80.6% | 95.5% | 0.84× | 1.24 |
| Over 133.5 points | 84.1% | 80.6% | 42.0% | 1.92× | 1.24 |
| Under 158.5 points | 74.6% | 70.8% | 92.7% | 0.76× | 1.41 |
| Over 138.5 points | 74.7% | 70.8% | 32.1% | 2.21× | 1.41 |
| Under 155.5 points | 67.9% | 65.9% | 90.7% | 0.73× | 1.52 |
| Over 141.5 points | 67.9% | 65.9% | 26.6% | 2.48× | 1.52 |
| Over 143.5 points | 63.0% | 61.5% | 23.3% | 2.64× | 1.63 |
| Under 153.5 points | 63.0% | 61.5% | 89.0% | 0.69× | 1.63 |
| Over 145.5 points | 57.9% | 56.5% | 20.5% | 2.76× | 1.77 |
| Under 151.5 points | 57.9% | 56.5% | 87.3% | 0.65× | 1.77 |
| Over 147.5 points | 52.7% | 52.3% | 17.7% | 2.95× | 1.91 |
| Under 149.5 points | 52.6% | 52.3% | 84.9% | 0.62× | 1.91 |
| Over 148.5 points | 50.1% | 52.3% | 16.3% | 3.20× | 1.91 |
| Under 148.5 points | 49.9% | 47.7% | 83.7% | 0.57× | 2.10 |
| Under 147.5 points | 47.3% | 47.7% | 82.3% | 0.58× | 2.10 |
| Over 149.5 points | 47.4% | 47.7% | 15.1% | 3.17× | 2.10 |
| Under 145.5 points | 42.1% | 43.5% | 79.5% | 0.55× | 2.30 |
| Over 151.5 points | 42.1% | 43.5% | 12.8% | 3.41× | 2.30 |
| Under 143.5 points | 37.0% | 38.5% | 76.7% | 0.50× | 2.60 |
| Over 153.5 points | 37.0% | 38.5% | 11.0% | 3.51× | 2.60 |
| Over 155.5 points | 32.1% | 34.1% | 9.3% | 3.67× | 2.93 |
| Under 141.5 points | 32.1% | 34.1% | 73.4% | 0.46× | 2.93 |
| Over 158.5 points | 25.4% | 29.2% | 7.3% | 4.00× | 3.43 |
| Under 138.5 points | 25.3% | 29.2% | 67.9% | 0.43× | 3.43 |
| Over 163.5 points | 16.0% | 19.4% | 4.5% | 4.27× | 5.15 |
| Under 133.5 points | 15.9% | 19.4% | 58.0% | 0.33× | 5.15 |
| Over 168.5 points | 9.3% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 3.95× | 8.96 |
| Under 128.5 points | 9.1% | 11.2% | 47.2% | 0.24× | 8.96 |
Win both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals to win both halves | 56.4% | 57.7% | 20.4% | 2.84× | 1.73 |
| Ball State Cardinals to win both halves | 2.8% | 3.0% | 36.0% | 0.08× | 33.67 |
Winning margin 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals by 11-15 | 17.9% | 16.8% | 7.6% | 2.20× | 5.97 |
| Louisville Cardinals by 16-20 | 16.6% | 16.8% | 4.8% | 3.53× | 5.97 |
| Louisville Cardinals by 6-10 | 15.9% | 16.8% | 10.3% | 1.63× | 5.97 |
| Louisville Cardinals by 26+ | 14.6% | 12.3% | 4.6% | 2.68× | 8.11 |
| Louisville Cardinals by 21-25 | 12.7% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.61× | 8.11 |
| Louisville Cardinals by 1-5 | 11.6% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 1.21× | 8.11 |
| Ball State Cardinals by 1-5 | 6.2% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 0.73× | 13.40 |
| Ball State Cardinals by 6-10 | 2.9% | 2.0% | 12.9% | 0.16× | 49.30 |
| Ball State Cardinals by 11-15 | 1.2% | 2.0% | 10.8% | 0.19× | 49.32 |
| Ball State Cardinals by 16-20 | 0.4% | 2.0% | 8.0% | 0.25× | 49.32 |
| Ball State Cardinals by 21-25 | 0.1% | 2.0% | 5.4% | 0.38× | 49.33 |
| Ball State Cardinals by 26+ | 0.0% | 2.0% | 12.6% | 0.16× | 49.33 |