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Bowling Green Falcons v Niagara Purple Eagles — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 12 November 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Bowling Green Falcons win
89.4%
Draw
0.0%
Niagara Purple Eagles win
10.6%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 74.60–61.53 75-62 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bowling Green Falcons to score 100+ 0.5% 0.4% 3.4% 0.10× 283.25
Bowling Green Falcons to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.35
Bowling Green Falcons to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.36
Bowling Green Falcons to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
Niagara Purple Eagles to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 283.36
Niagara Purple Eagles to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.36
Niagara Purple Eagles to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
Niagara Purple Eagles to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.36
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bowling Green Falcons to win H1 74.7% 73.0% 57.9% 1.26× 1.37
Bowling Green Falcons to win H1 74.6% 73.0% 57.9% 1.26× 1.37
Niagara Purple Eagles to win H1 21.9% 21.4% 38.2% 0.56× 4.68
Niagara Purple Eagles to win H1 21.8% 21.4% 38.2% 0.56× 4.68
H1 tied 3.6% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 tied 3.5% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 52.5 87.4% 87.7% 93.8% 0.94× 1.14
H1 under 76.5 87.1% 87.7% 75.5% 1.16× 1.14
H1 over 56.5 78.5% 77.4% 87.5% 0.89× 1.29
H1 under 72.5 78.2% 77.4% 63.3% 1.22× 1.29
H1 under 72.5 77.5% 77.4% 63.3% 1.22× 1.29
H1 over 56.5 77.7% 77.4% 87.5% 0.89× 1.29
H1 under 69.5 68.1% 67.4% 53.1% 1.27× 1.48
H1 over 59.5 68.9% 67.4% 80.7% 0.84× 1.48
H1 under 69.5 68.7% 67.4% 53.1% 1.27× 1.48
H1 over 59.5 68.3% 67.4% 80.7% 0.84× 1.48
H1 over 61.5 61.6% 62.7% 74.9% 0.84× 1.59
H1 under 67.5 61.5% 62.7% 45.6% 1.38× 1.59
H1 over 61.5 61.3% 62.7% 74.9% 0.84× 1.59
H1 under 67.5 61.1% 62.7% 45.6% 1.38× 1.59
H1 over 63.5 54.0% 52.6% 69.0% 0.76× 1.90
H1 under 65.5 53.8% 52.6% 38.1% 1.38× 1.90
H1 over 63.5 53.8% 52.6% 69.0% 0.76× 1.90
H1 under 65.5 53.7% 52.6% 38.1% 1.38× 1.90
H1 over 64.5 50.1% 52.6% 65.3% 0.81× 1.90
H1 over 64.5 50.1% 52.6% 65.3% 0.81× 1.90
H1 under 64.5 49.9% 47.4% 34.8% 1.36× 2.11
H1 under 64.5 49.9% 47.4% 34.8% 1.36× 2.11
H1 under 63.5 46.0% 47.4% 31.0% 1.53× 2.11
H1 over 65.5 46.2% 47.4% 61.9% 0.77× 2.11
H1 under 63.5 46.2% 47.4% 31.0% 1.53× 2.11
H1 over 65.5 46.3% 47.4% 61.9% 0.77× 2.11
H1 under 61.5 38.4% 37.3% 25.1% 1.48× 2.68
H1 over 67.5 38.5% 37.3% 54.4% 0.69× 2.68
H1 under 61.5 38.7% 37.3% 25.1% 1.48× 2.68
H1 over 67.5 38.9% 37.3% 54.4% 0.69× 2.68
H1 under 59.5 31.1% 32.6% 19.3% 1.69× 3.07
H1 over 69.5 31.3% 32.6% 46.9% 0.69× 3.07
H1 under 59.5 31.7% 32.6% 19.3% 1.69× 3.07
H1 over 69.5 31.9% 32.6% 46.9% 0.69× 3.07
H1 over 72.5 22.5% 22.6% 36.7% 0.62× 4.43
H1 under 56.5 22.3% 22.6% 12.5% 1.80× 4.43
H1 under 56.5 21.5% 22.6% 12.5% 1.80× 4.43
H1 over 72.5 21.8% 22.6% 36.7% 0.62× 4.43
H1 over 76.5 12.9% 12.3% 24.5% 0.50× 8.14
H1 under 52.5 12.6% 12.3% 6.2% 1.97× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bowling Green Falcons to win H2 76.4% 73.9% 56.9% 1.30× 1.35
Bowling Green Falcons to win H2 76.3% 73.9% 57.5% 1.29× 1.35
Niagara Purple Eagles to win H2 20.4% 26.8% 38.5% 0.70× 3.73
Niagara Purple Eagles to win H2 20.4% 26.8% 38.9% 0.69× 3.73
H2 tied 3.3% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.36
H2 tied 3.3% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.36
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 84.5 86.9% 85.2% 70.5% 1.21× 1.17
H2 over 60.5 84.8% 81.8% 92.7% 0.88× 1.22
H2 under 80.5 77.8% 75.8% 59.2% 1.28× 1.32
H2 under 80.5 78.5% 75.8% 62.9% 1.21× 1.32
H2 over 64.5 75.3% 75.8% 85.3% 0.89× 1.32
H2 over 64.5 74.7% 72.2% 86.5% 0.83× 1.39
H2 under 77.5 69.1% 66.4% 49.8% 1.33× 1.51
H2 under 77.5 69.7% 66.4% 53.0% 1.25× 1.51
H2 over 67.5 65.8% 66.4% 78.2% 0.85× 1.51
H2 over 67.5 65.4% 66.4% 80.0% 0.83× 1.51
H2 under 75.5 62.6% 61.6% 43.6% 1.41× 1.62
H2 under 75.5 63.0% 61.6% 46.6% 1.32× 1.62
H2 over 69.5 58.8% 57.3% 72.8% 0.79× 1.74
H2 over 69.5 58.5% 57.3% 74.8% 0.77× 1.74
H2 under 73.5 55.7% 57.3% 36.9% 1.55× 1.74
H2 under 73.5 55.8% 57.3% 39.6% 1.45× 1.74
H2 over 71.5 51.4% 52.4% 68.8% 0.76× 1.91
H2 under 72.5 52.1% 52.4% 34.1% 1.54× 1.91
H2 over 71.5 51.5% 52.4% 66.4% 0.79× 1.91
H2 under 72.5 52.2% 52.4% 36.6% 1.43× 1.91
H2 under 71.5 48.6% 47.6% 31.2% 1.52× 2.10
H2 over 72.5 47.9% 47.6% 65.9% 0.72× 2.10
H2 under 71.5 48.5% 47.6% 33.6% 1.42× 2.10
H2 over 72.5 47.8% 47.6% 63.4% 0.75× 2.10
H2 over 73.5 44.3% 42.7% 63.1% 0.68× 2.34
H2 over 73.5 44.2% 42.7% 60.4% 0.71× 2.34
H2 under 69.5 41.5% 42.7% 25.2% 1.69× 2.34
H2 under 69.5 41.2% 42.7% 27.2% 1.57× 2.34
H2 over 75.5 37.4% 38.4% 56.4% 0.68× 2.61
H2 over 75.5 37.0% 38.4% 53.4% 0.72× 2.61
H2 under 67.5 34.6% 33.6% 20.0% 1.68× 2.97
H2 under 67.5 34.2% 33.6% 21.8% 1.55× 2.97
H2 over 77.5 30.9% 33.6% 50.2% 0.67× 2.97
H2 over 77.5 30.4% 33.6% 47.0% 0.72× 2.97
H2 under 64.5 25.3% 27.8% 13.5% 2.06× 3.59
H2 under 64.5 24.7% 24.2% 14.7% 1.64× 4.13
H2 over 80.5 22.2% 24.2% 40.8% 0.59× 4.13
H2 over 80.5 21.5% 24.2% 37.1% 0.65× 4.13
H2 under 60.5 15.2% 18.2% 7.3% 2.50× 5.50
H2 over 84.5 13.1% 14.8% 29.5% 0.50× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bowling Green Falcons leading at half time 74.6% 73.5% 57.9% 1.27× 1.36
Niagara Purple Eagles leading at half time 21.9% 20.9% 38.2% 0.55× 4.78
Level at half time 3.5% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bowling Green Falcons +14.5 99.5% 97.4% 92.2% 1.06× 1.03
Bowling Green Falcons +16.5 99.7% 97.4% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
Bowling Green Falcons +18.5 99.8% 97.4% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
Bowling Green Falcons +20.5 99.9% 97.4% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
Bowling Green Falcons +5.5 95.7% 97.4% 76.4% 1.28× 1.03
Bowling Green Falcons +6.5 96.5% 97.4% 78.8% 1.24× 1.03
Bowling Green Falcons +7.5 97.2% 97.4% 81.0% 1.20× 1.03
Bowling Green Falcons +8.5 97.7% 97.4% 83.3% 1.17× 1.03
Bowling Green Falcons +9.5 98.2% 97.4% 85.3% 1.14× 1.03
Bowling Green Falcons +10.5 98.6% 97.4% 87.2% 1.12× 1.03
Bowling Green Falcons +12.5 99.1% 97.4% 89.9% 1.08× 1.03
Bowling Green Falcons +4.5 94.8% 91.1% 73.7% 1.24× 1.10
Bowling Green Falcons +2.5 92.5% 91.1% 68.0% 1.34× 1.10
Bowling Green Falcons +3.5 93.7% 91.1% 70.8% 1.29× 1.10
Bowling Green Falcons +1.5 91.0% 91.1% 65.4% 1.39× 1.10
Bowling Green Falcons −1.5 87.4% 85.9% 60.8% 1.41× 1.16
Bowling Green Falcons −2.5 85.1% 85.9% 57.7% 1.49× 1.16
Bowling Green Falcons −3.5 82.7% 81.1% 54.1% 1.50× 1.23
Bowling Green Falcons −4.5 80.0% 76.5% 50.7% 1.51× 1.31
Bowling Green Falcons −5.5 77.1% 76.5% 47.0% 1.63× 1.31
Niagara Purple Eagles +20.5 75.7% 76.5% 86.5% 0.88× 1.31
Bowling Green Falcons −6.5 74.0% 71.6% 44.3% 1.62× 1.40
Bowling Green Falcons −7.5 70.8% 71.6% 41.3% 1.73× 1.40
Niagara Purple Eagles +18.5 69.4% 66.7% 83.9% 0.80× 1.50
Bowling Green Falcons −8.5 67.4% 66.7% 38.5% 1.74× 1.50
Bowling Green Falcons −9.5 63.8% 61.9% 35.5% 1.75× 1.62
Niagara Purple Eagles +16.5 62.4% 61.9% 80.7% 0.77× 1.62
Bowling Green Falcons −10.5 60.1% 61.9% 32.6% 1.90× 1.62
Niagara Purple Eagles +14.5 55.0% 57.1% 77.2% 0.74× 1.75
Bowling Green Falcons −12.5 52.6% 52.4% 27.6% 1.90× 1.91
Niagara Purple Eagles +12.5 47.4% 47.6% 72.4% 0.66× 2.10
Bowling Green Falcons −14.5 45.0% 42.9% 22.8% 1.88× 2.33
Niagara Purple Eagles +10.5 39.9% 38.1% 67.4% 0.57× 2.63
Bowling Green Falcons −16.5 37.6% 38.1% 19.3% 1.97× 2.63
Niagara Purple Eagles +9.5 36.2% 38.1% 64.5% 0.59× 2.63
Niagara Purple Eagles +8.5 32.6% 33.3% 61.5% 0.54× 3.01
Bowling Green Falcons −18.5 30.6% 33.3% 16.1% 2.06× 3.01
Niagara Purple Eagles +7.5 29.2% 28.4% 58.7% 0.48× 3.53
Niagara Purple Eagles +6.5 26.0% 28.4% 55.7% 0.51× 3.53
Bowling Green Falcons −20.5 24.3% 23.5% 13.5% 1.75× 4.25
Niagara Purple Eagles +5.5 22.9% 23.5% 53.0% 0.44× 4.25
Niagara Purple Eagles +4.5 20.0% 23.5% 49.3% 0.48× 4.25
Niagara Purple Eagles +3.5 17.3% 18.9% 45.9% 0.41× 5.29
Niagara Purple Eagles +2.5 14.9% 14.1% 42.3% 0.33× 7.09
Niagara Purple Eagles +1.5 12.6% 14.1% 39.2% 0.36× 7.09
Niagara Purple Eagles −1.5 9.0% 8.9% 34.6% 0.26× 11.25
Niagara Purple Eagles −2.5 7.5% 8.9% 32.0% 0.28× 11.25
Niagara Purple Eagles −3.5 6.3% 8.9% 29.3% 0.30× 11.25
Niagara Purple Eagles −4.5 5.2% 8.9% 26.3% 0.34× 11.25
Niagara Purple Eagles −5.5 4.3% 2.6% 23.6% 0.11× 38.72
Niagara Purple Eagles −6.5 3.5% 2.6% 21.2% 0.12× 38.73
Niagara Purple Eagles −7.5 2.8% 2.6% 19.0% 0.14× 38.73
Niagara Purple Eagles −8.5 2.3% 2.6% 16.7% 0.16× 38.73
Niagara Purple Eagles −9.5 1.8% 2.6% 14.7% 0.18× 38.73
Niagara Purple Eagles −10.5 1.4% 2.6% 12.8% 0.20× 38.73
Niagara Purple Eagles −12.5 0.9% 2.6% 10.1% 0.26× 38.74
Niagara Purple Eagles −14.5 0.5% 2.6% 7.8% 0.33× 38.74
Niagara Purple Eagles −16.5 0.3% 2.6% 6.0% 0.43× 38.74
Niagara Purple Eagles −18.5 0.2% 2.6% 4.6% 0.57× 38.74
Niagara Purple Eagles −20.5 0.1% 2.6% 3.5% 0.75× 38.74
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 highest scoring 77.5% 71.6% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
2nd half highest scoring 75.9% 71.6% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 24.1% 28.4% 27.5% 1.03× 3.53
H1 highest scoring 22.5% 28.4% 29.6% 0.96× 3.53
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bowling Green Falcons at HT / Bowling Green Falcons at FT 71.0% 73.1% 48.6% 1.50× 1.37
Niagara Purple Eagles at HT / Bowling Green Falcons at FT 15.4% 15.4% 12.4% 1.25× 6.47
Niagara Purple Eagles at HT / Niagara Purple Eagles at FT 6.5% 8.3% 25.8% 0.32× 12.09
Bowling Green Falcons at HT / Niagara Purple Eagles at FT 3.6% 2.1% 9.3% 0.22× 47.73
Level at HT / Bowling Green Falcons at FT 3.0% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.74
Level at HT / Niagara Purple Eagles at FT 0.5% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bowling Green Falcons to win 89.4% 85.6% 63.2% 1.35× 1.17
Niagara Purple Eagles to win 10.6% 14.4% 36.8% 0.39× 6.93
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bowling Green Falcons even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Niagara Purple Eagles even 50.1% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 50.9% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
Bowling Green Falcons odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Niagara Purple Eagles odd 49.9% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 49.1% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 94.9% 94.0% 94.2% 1.00× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 5.1% 6.0% 5.8% 1.04× 16.66
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bowling Green Falcons under 85.5 86.5% 83.9% 78.6% 1.07× 1.19
Niagara Purple Eagles over 51.5 86.0% 83.9% 95.9% 0.88× 1.19
Niagara Purple Eagles under 71.5 85.4% 83.9% 51.8% 1.62× 1.19
Bowling Green Falcons over 65.5 83.3% 80.7% 81.1% 0.99× 1.24
Bowling Green Falcons under 82.5 78.6% 75.1% 70.8% 1.06× 1.33
Niagara Purple Eagles over 54.5 77.5% 75.1% 92.6% 0.81× 1.33
Niagara Purple Eagles under 68.5 76.9% 75.1% 41.6% 1.81× 1.33
Bowling Green Falcons over 68.5 74.4% 70.7% 72.7% 0.97× 1.41
Bowling Green Falcons under 80.5 72.1% 70.7% 64.9% 1.09× 1.41
Niagara Purple Eagles over 56.5 70.5% 70.7% 89.8% 0.79× 1.41
Niagara Purple Eagles under 66.5 70.0% 70.7% 35.3% 2.01× 1.41
Bowling Green Falcons over 70.5 67.3% 66.4% 66.7% 1.00× 1.51
Bowling Green Falcons under 78.5 64.8% 61.2% 58.4% 1.05× 1.63
Niagara Purple Eagles over 58.5 62.7% 61.2% 86.2% 0.71× 1.63
Niagara Purple Eagles under 64.5 62.3% 61.2% 29.3% 2.09× 1.63
Bowling Green Falcons over 72.5 59.5% 57.1% 60.8% 0.94× 1.75
Bowling Green Falcons under 76.5 56.9% 57.1% 52.3% 1.09× 1.75
Niagara Purple Eagles over 60.5 54.4% 52.3% 82.0% 0.64× 1.91
Niagara Purple Eagles under 62.5 54.1% 52.3% 23.4% 2.23× 1.91
Bowling Green Falcons over 74.5 51.4% 52.3% 54.1% 0.97× 1.91
Bowling Green Falcons under 75.5 52.8% 52.3% 49.0% 1.07× 1.91
Niagara Purple Eagles over 61.5 50.2% 52.3% 79.3% 0.66× 1.91
Niagara Purple Eagles under 61.5 49.8% 47.7% 20.7% 2.31× 2.09
Bowling Green Falcons under 74.5 48.6% 47.7% 45.9% 1.04× 2.09
Bowling Green Falcons over 75.5 47.2% 47.7% 51.0% 0.94× 2.09
Niagara Purple Eagles under 60.5 45.6% 47.7% 18.0% 2.65× 2.09
Niagara Purple Eagles over 62.5 45.9% 47.7% 76.6% 0.62× 2.09
Bowling Green Falcons over 76.5 43.1% 42.9% 47.7% 0.90× 2.33
Bowling Green Falcons under 72.5 40.5% 42.9% 39.2% 1.09× 2.33
Niagara Purple Eagles under 58.5 37.3% 38.8% 13.8% 2.82× 2.58
Niagara Purple Eagles over 64.5 37.7% 38.8% 70.7% 0.55× 2.58
Bowling Green Falcons over 78.5 35.2% 38.8% 41.6% 0.93× 2.58
Bowling Green Falcons under 70.5 32.7% 33.6% 33.3% 1.01× 2.98
Niagara Purple Eagles under 56.5 29.5% 29.3% 10.2% 2.88× 3.42
Niagara Purple Eagles over 66.5 30.0% 29.3% 64.7% 0.45× 3.42
Bowling Green Falcons over 80.5 27.9% 29.3% 35.1% 0.83× 3.42
Bowling Green Falcons under 68.5 25.6% 29.3% 27.3% 1.07× 3.42
Niagara Purple Eagles under 54.5 22.5% 24.9% 7.4% 3.37× 4.02
Niagara Purple Eagles over 68.5 23.1% 24.9% 58.4% 0.43× 4.02
Bowling Green Falcons over 82.5 21.4% 24.9% 29.2% 0.85× 4.02
Bowling Green Falcons under 65.5 16.7% 19.3% 18.9% 1.02× 5.18
Niagara Purple Eagles over 71.5 14.6% 16.1% 48.2% 0.33× 6.21
Bowling Green Falcons over 85.5 13.5% 16.1% 21.4% 0.75× 6.21
Niagara Purple Eagles under 51.5 14.0% 16.1% 4.1% 3.89× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 116.5 points 89.9% 85.0% 95.9% 0.89× 1.18
Under 156.5 points 89.7% 85.0% 69.8% 1.22× 1.18
Under 151.5 points 82.9% 80.6% 60.6% 1.33× 1.24
Over 121.5 points 82.8% 80.6% 92.1% 0.87× 1.24
Under 146.5 points 73.8% 70.8% 50.2% 1.41× 1.41
Over 126.5 points 73.4% 70.8% 87.0% 0.81× 1.41
Over 129.5 points 66.8% 65.9% 83.3% 0.79× 1.52
Under 143.5 points 67.4% 65.9% 43.7% 1.51× 1.52
Under 141.5 points 62.7% 61.5% 39.6% 1.55× 1.63
Over 131.5 points 62.0% 61.5% 79.9% 0.77× 1.63
Over 133.5 points 57.1% 56.5% 76.4% 0.74× 1.77
Under 139.5 points 57.9% 56.5% 35.4% 1.60× 1.77
Over 135.5 points 52.1% 52.3% 72.9% 0.72× 1.91
Under 137.5 points 52.9% 52.3% 31.0% 1.69× 1.91
Under 136.5 points 50.3% 52.3% 28.9% 1.81× 1.91
Over 136.5 points 49.7% 47.7% 71.1% 0.67× 2.10
Under 135.5 points 47.9% 47.7% 27.1% 1.76× 2.10
Over 137.5 points 47.1% 47.7% 69.0% 0.69× 2.10
Under 133.5 points 42.9% 43.5% 23.6% 1.84× 2.30
Over 139.5 points 42.1% 43.5% 64.6% 0.67× 2.30
Under 131.5 points 38.0% 38.5% 20.1% 1.92× 2.60
Over 141.5 points 37.3% 38.5% 60.4% 0.64× 2.60
Under 129.5 points 33.2% 34.1% 16.7% 2.04× 2.93
Over 143.5 points 32.6% 34.1% 56.3% 0.61× 2.93
Under 126.5 points 26.6% 29.2% 13.0% 2.24× 3.43
Over 146.5 points 26.2% 29.2% 49.8% 0.59× 3.43
Under 121.5 points 17.2% 19.4% 7.9% 2.47× 5.15
Over 151.5 points 17.1% 19.4% 39.4% 0.49× 5.15
Over 156.5 points 10.3% 15.0% 30.2% 0.50× 6.69
Under 116.5 points 10.1% 15.0% 4.1% 3.61× 6.69
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bowling Green Falcons to win both halves 54.5% 50.5% 33.2% 1.52× 1.98
Niagara Purple Eagles to win both halves 2.6% 3.0% 14.5% 0.20× 33.69
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bowling Green Falcons by 11-15 18.9% 16.8% 11.6% 1.45× 5.97
Bowling Green Falcons by 6-10 17.0% 16.8% 14.4% 1.16× 5.97
Bowling Green Falcons by 16-20 17.0% 16.8% 7.6% 2.20× 5.97
Bowling Green Falcons by 1-5 12.3% 12.3% 16.2% 0.76× 8.11
Bowling Green Falcons by 21-25 12.3% 12.3% 5.6% 2.22× 8.11
Bowling Green Falcons by 26+ 12.0% 12.3% 7.9% 1.56× 8.11
Niagara Purple Eagles by 1-5 6.3% 7.5% 13.2% 0.57× 13.40
Niagara Purple Eagles by 6-10 2.9% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.30
Niagara Purple Eagles by 11-15 1.0% 2.0% 6.1% 0.34× 49.32
Niagara Purple Eagles by 16-20 0.3% 2.0% 3.3% 0.61× 49.33
Niagara Purple Eagles by 21-25 0.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 49.33
Niagara Purple Eagles by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.33
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Aider Reading the Basketball model · online
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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