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Columbia Lions v Duke Blue Devils — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Columbia Lions win
18.1%
Draw
0.0%
Duke Blue Devils win
81.9%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 60.68–70.73 61-71 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Duke Blue Devils to score 100+ 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.72× 283.34
Duke Blue Devils to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.36
Duke Blue Devils to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
Duke Blue Devils to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
Columbia Lions to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 283.36
Columbia Lions to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.36
Columbia Lions to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
Columbia Lions to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Duke Blue Devils to win H1 68.9% 68.3% 39.9% 1.71× 1.46
Columbia Lions to win H1 27.2% 26.5% 56.4% 0.47× 3.77
H1 tied 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.86
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 75.5 89.3% 87.7% 88.8% 0.99× 1.14
H1 over 51.5 87.2% 87.7% 82.0% 1.07× 1.14
H1 under 71.5 80.2% 82.5% 81.4% 1.01× 1.21
H1 over 55.5 76.8% 77.4% 71.0% 1.09× 1.29
H1 under 68.5 71.0% 73.5% 73.5% 1.00× 1.36
H1 over 58.5 66.8% 67.4% 61.4% 1.10× 1.48
H1 under 66.5 64.0% 62.7% 67.1% 0.93× 1.59
H1 over 60.5 59.3% 58.2% 53.9% 1.08× 1.72
H1 under 64.5 56.4% 58.2% 60.7% 0.96× 1.72
H1 under 63.5 52.4% 52.6% 57.1% 0.92× 1.90
H1 over 62.5 51.5% 52.6% 46.3% 1.14× 1.90
H1 under 62.5 48.5% 47.4% 53.7% 0.88× 2.11
H1 over 63.5 47.6% 47.4% 42.9% 1.10× 2.11
H1 over 64.5 43.7% 41.8% 39.3% 1.06× 2.39
H1 under 60.5 40.7% 41.8% 46.1% 0.91× 2.39
H1 over 66.5 36.0% 37.3% 32.9% 1.13× 2.68
H1 under 58.5 33.2% 32.6% 38.6% 0.84× 3.07
H1 over 68.5 29.0% 26.5% 26.5% 1.00× 3.77
H1 under 55.5 23.2% 22.6% 29.0% 0.78× 4.43
H1 over 71.5 19.8% 17.5% 18.6% 0.94× 5.72
H1 under 51.5 12.8% 12.3% 18.0% 0.68× 8.14
H1 over 75.5 10.7% 12.3% 11.2% 1.10× 8.14
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Duke Blue Devils to win H2 70.1% 67.6% 40.6% 1.67× 1.48
Columbia Lions to win H2 26.2% 31.3% 56.0% 0.56× 3.20
H2 tied 3.7% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.36
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 81.5 88.3% 85.2% 85.8% 0.99× 1.17
H2 over 57.5 86.0% 85.2% 82.2% 1.04× 1.17
H2 under 77.5 79.2% 75.8% 77.9% 0.97× 1.32
H2 over 61.5 75.8% 75.8% 71.3% 1.06× 1.32
H2 under 74.5 70.2% 72.2% 69.9% 1.03× 1.39
H2 over 64.5 66.0% 66.4% 62.1% 1.07× 1.51
H2 under 72.5 63.4% 61.6% 64.1% 0.96× 1.62
H2 over 66.5 58.8% 57.3% 55.4% 1.04× 1.74
H2 under 70.5 56.1% 57.3% 57.8% 0.99× 1.74
H2 over 68.5 51.4% 52.4% 48.7% 1.08× 1.91
H2 under 69.5 52.4% 52.4% 54.8% 0.96× 1.91
H2 under 68.5 48.6% 47.6% 51.3% 0.93× 2.10
H2 over 69.5 47.6% 47.6% 45.2% 1.05× 2.10
H2 over 70.5 43.9% 42.7% 42.2% 1.01× 2.34
H2 under 66.5 41.2% 42.7% 44.6% 0.96× 2.34
H2 over 72.5 36.6% 38.4% 36.0% 1.07× 2.61
H2 under 64.5 34.0% 33.6% 37.9% 0.89× 2.97
H2 over 74.5 29.8% 27.8% 30.1% 0.93× 3.59
H2 under 61.5 24.2% 24.2% 28.7% 0.84× 4.13
H2 over 77.5 20.8% 24.2% 22.1% 1.10× 4.13
H2 under 57.5 14.0% 14.8% 17.8% 0.83× 6.76
H2 over 81.5 11.7% 14.8% 14.2% 1.04× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Duke Blue Devils leading at half time 68.9% 68.4% 39.9% 1.72× 1.46
Columbia Lions leading at half time 27.2% 26.5% 56.4% 0.47× 3.78
Level at half time 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Duke Blue Devils +18.5 99.4% 97.4% 79.3% 1.23× 1.03
Duke Blue Devils +20.5 99.7% 97.4% 82.0% 1.19× 1.03
Duke Blue Devils +9.5 95.8% 97.4% 60.7% 1.61× 1.03
Duke Blue Devils +10.5 96.5% 97.4% 63.2% 1.54× 1.03
Duke Blue Devils +12.5 97.7% 97.4% 67.9% 1.44× 1.03
Duke Blue Devils +14.5 98.5% 97.4% 72.1% 1.35× 1.03
Duke Blue Devils +16.5 99.1% 97.4% 75.7% 1.29× 1.03
Duke Blue Devils +8.5 94.9% 91.1% 58.0% 1.57× 1.10
Duke Blue Devils +6.5 92.7% 91.1% 52.4% 1.74× 1.10
Duke Blue Devils +7.5 93.9% 91.1% 55.2% 1.65× 1.10
Duke Blue Devils +5.5 91.4% 91.1% 50.3% 1.81× 1.10
Duke Blue Devils +4.5 89.9% 85.9% 47.8% 1.80× 1.16
Duke Blue Devils +3.5 88.2% 85.9% 45.8% 1.88× 1.16
Duke Blue Devils +2.5 86.3% 85.9% 43.3% 1.98× 1.16
Duke Blue Devils +1.5 84.2% 81.1% 41.3% 1.96× 1.23
Columbia Lions +20.5 82.7% 81.1% 92.7% 0.87× 1.23
Duke Blue Devils −1.5 79.3% 76.5% 38.8% 1.97× 1.31
Columbia Lions +18.5 77.7% 76.5% 91.1% 0.84× 1.31
Duke Blue Devils −2.5 76.4% 76.5% 36.7% 2.09× 1.31
Duke Blue Devils −3.5 73.4% 71.6% 34.3% 2.09× 1.40
Columbia Lions +16.5 71.8% 71.6% 89.1% 0.80× 1.40
Duke Blue Devils −4.5 70.2% 71.6% 32.2% 2.22× 1.40
Duke Blue Devils −5.5 66.9% 66.7% 29.9% 2.23× 1.50
Columbia Lions +14.5 65.3% 66.7% 86.7% 0.77× 1.50
Duke Blue Devils −6.5 63.4% 61.9% 27.7% 2.23× 1.62
Duke Blue Devils −7.5 59.9% 57.1% 25.5% 2.24× 1.75
Columbia Lions +12.5 58.3% 57.1% 83.8% 0.68× 1.75
Duke Blue Devils −8.5 56.3% 57.1% 23.5% 2.42× 1.75
Duke Blue Devils −9.5 52.6% 52.4% 21.3% 2.46× 1.91
Columbia Lions +10.5 51.1% 52.4% 80.4% 0.65× 1.91
Duke Blue Devils −10.5 48.9% 47.6% 19.6% 2.43× 2.10
Columbia Lions +9.5 47.4% 47.6% 78.7% 0.61× 2.10
Columbia Lions +8.5 43.7% 42.9% 76.5% 0.56× 2.33
Duke Blue Devils −12.5 41.7% 42.9% 16.2% 2.64× 2.33
Columbia Lions +7.5 40.1% 42.9% 74.5% 0.58× 2.33
Columbia Lions +6.5 36.6% 38.1% 72.3% 0.53× 2.63
Duke Blue Devils −14.5 34.7% 33.3% 13.3% 2.51× 3.01
Columbia Lions +5.5 33.1% 33.3% 70.1% 0.47× 3.01
Columbia Lions +4.5 29.8% 28.4% 67.8% 0.42× 3.53
Duke Blue Devils −16.5 28.2% 28.4% 10.9% 2.61× 3.53
Columbia Lions +3.5 26.6% 28.4% 65.7% 0.43× 3.53
Columbia Lions +2.5 23.6% 23.5% 63.3% 0.37× 4.25
Duke Blue Devils −18.5 22.3% 23.5% 8.9% 2.64× 4.25
Columbia Lions +1.5 20.7% 23.5% 61.2% 0.38× 4.25
Duke Blue Devils −20.5 17.3% 18.9% 7.3% 2.60× 5.29
Columbia Lions −1.5 15.8% 18.9% 58.7% 0.32× 5.30
Columbia Lions −2.5 13.7% 14.1% 56.7% 0.25× 7.09
Columbia Lions −3.5 11.8% 14.1% 54.2% 0.26× 7.09
Columbia Lions −4.5 10.1% 14.1% 52.2% 0.27× 7.09
Columbia Lions −5.5 8.6% 8.9% 49.7% 0.18× 11.25
Columbia Lions −6.5 7.3% 8.9% 47.6% 0.19× 11.25
Columbia Lions −7.5 6.1% 8.9% 44.8% 0.20× 11.25
Columbia Lions −8.5 5.1% 8.9% 42.0% 0.21× 11.25
Columbia Lions −9.5 4.2% 2.6% 39.3% 0.07× 38.72
Columbia Lions −10.5 3.5% 2.6% 36.8% 0.07× 38.73
Columbia Lions −12.5 2.3% 2.6% 32.1% 0.08× 38.73
Columbia Lions −14.5 1.5% 2.6% 27.9% 0.09× 38.73
Columbia Lions −16.5 0.9% 2.6% 24.3% 0.11× 38.74
Columbia Lions −18.5 0.6% 2.6% 20.7% 0.12× 38.74
Columbia Lions −20.5 0.3% 2.6% 18.0% 0.14× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 72.2% 67.1% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
1st half highest scoring 27.8% 32.9% 33.3% 0.99× 3.04
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 highest scoring 34.5% 31.9% 31.2% 1.02× 3.14
Q3 highest scoring 32.7% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q1 highest scoring 17.2% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
Q2 highest scoring 15.7% 18.3% 17.9% 1.02× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Duke Blue Devils at HT / Duke Blue Devils at FT 63.3% 62.3% 30.1% 2.07× 1.61
Columbia Lions at HT / Duke Blue Devils at FT 15.7% 15.4% 8.2% 1.88× 6.47
Columbia Lions at HT / Columbia Lions at FT 11.5% 12.2% 48.3% 0.25× 8.18
Duke Blue Devils at HT / Columbia Lions at FT 5.7% 8.3% 9.8% 0.85× 12.10
Level at HT / Duke Blue Devils at FT 3.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.74
Level at HT / Columbia Lions at FT 0.9% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Duke Blue Devils to win 81.9% 80.9% 40.1% 2.02× 1.24
Columbia Lions to win 18.1% 19.1% 59.9% 0.32× 5.23
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Duke Blue Devils even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Total points odd 51.2% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
Columbia Lions even 50.1% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
Duke Blue Devils odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 48.8% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Columbia Lions odd 49.9% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 95.3% 97.0% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 4.7% 3.0% 4.4% 0.68× 33.33
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Duke Blue Devils to win Q1 61.6% 64.9% 40.4% 1.61× 1.54
Columbia Lions to win Q1 32.6% 30.4% 54.7% 0.56× 3.29
Q1 tied 5.7% 5.5% 4.9% 1.11× 18.32
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 23.5 88.6% 87.4% 85.4% 1.02× 1.14
Q1 under 39.5 87.8% 87.4% 87.5% 1.00× 1.14
Q1 over 26.5 77.6% 76.9% 72.9% 1.06× 1.30
Q1 under 36.5 76.5% 76.9% 77.4% 0.99× 1.30
Q1 over 28.5 67.8% 67.6% 62.7% 1.08× 1.48
Q1 under 34.5 66.5% 67.6% 68.5% 0.99× 1.48
Q1 over 30.5 56.6% 58.6% 51.2% 1.14× 1.71
Q1 under 32.5 55.2% 58.6% 59.1% 0.99× 1.71
Q1 over 31.5 50.7% 52.7% 46.0% 1.14× 1.90
Q1 under 31.5 49.3% 47.3% 54.0% 0.88× 2.11
Q1 over 32.5 44.8% 41.4% 40.9% 1.01× 2.42
Q1 under 30.5 43.4% 41.4% 48.8% 0.85× 2.42
Q1 over 34.5 33.5% 32.4% 31.5% 1.03× 3.08
Q1 under 28.5 32.2% 32.4% 37.3% 0.87× 3.08
Q1 over 36.5 23.5% 23.1% 22.6% 1.02× 4.33
Q1 under 26.5 22.4% 23.1% 27.1% 0.85× 4.33
Q1 over 39.5 12.2% 12.6% 12.5% 1.01× 7.95
Q1 under 23.5 11.4% 12.6% 14.6% 0.86× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Duke Blue Devils to win Q2 61.3% 61.9% 41.5% 1.49× 1.62
Columbia Lions to win Q2 33.1% 31.8% 52.9% 0.60× 3.14
Q2 tied 5.6% 6.1% 5.7% 1.07× 16.50
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 39.5 88.8% 87.3% 88.4% 0.99× 1.15
Q2 over 23.5 87.6% 87.3% 84.6% 1.03× 1.15
Q2 under 36.5 78.0% 76.8% 78.7% 0.98× 1.30
Q2 over 26.5 76.1% 76.8% 71.6% 1.07× 1.30
Q2 under 34.5 68.3% 67.4% 70.1% 0.96× 1.49
Q2 over 28.5 66.0% 67.4% 61.2% 1.10× 1.49
Q2 under 32.5 57.1% 58.2% 60.8% 0.96× 1.72
Q2 over 30.5 54.6% 52.7% 49.9% 1.06× 1.90
Q2 under 31.5 51.3% 52.7% 55.7% 0.95× 1.90
Q2 over 31.5 48.7% 47.3% 44.3% 1.07× 2.11
Q2 under 30.5 45.4% 47.3% 50.1% 0.94× 2.11
Q2 over 32.5 42.9% 41.8% 39.2% 1.07× 2.39
Q2 under 28.5 34.0% 32.6% 38.8% 0.84× 3.06
Q2 over 34.5 31.7% 32.6% 29.9% 1.09× 3.06
Q2 under 26.5 23.9% 23.2% 28.4% 0.82× 4.31
Q2 over 36.5 22.0% 23.2% 21.3% 1.09× 4.31
Q2 under 23.5 12.4% 12.7% 15.4% 0.82× 7.89
Q2 over 39.5 11.2% 12.7% 11.6% 1.09× 7.90
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Duke Blue Devils to win Q3 62.5% 60.9% 41.8% 1.46× 1.64
Columbia Lions to win Q3 31.9% 33.8% 53.3% 0.63× 2.96
Q3 tied 5.5% 5.3% 4.9% 1.07× 18.97
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 42.5 87.8% 87.2% 87.8% 0.99× 1.15
Q3 over 26.5 87.4% 87.2% 83.8% 1.04× 1.15
Q3 under 39.5 76.8% 77.3% 77.9% 0.99× 1.29
Q3 over 29.5 76.1% 77.3% 71.8% 1.08× 1.29
Q3 under 37.5 67.2% 67.8% 69.7% 0.97× 1.48
Q3 over 31.5 66.3% 67.8% 61.6% 1.10× 1.48
Q3 under 35.5 56.2% 58.4% 59.7% 0.98× 1.71
Q3 over 33.5 55.2% 58.4% 50.9% 1.15× 1.71
Q3 under 34.5 50.5% 52.3% 54.6% 0.96× 1.91
Q3 over 34.5 49.5% 47.7% 45.4% 1.05× 2.10
Q3 under 33.5 44.8% 41.6% 49.1% 0.85× 2.40
Q3 over 35.5 43.8% 41.6% 40.3% 1.03× 2.40
Q3 under 31.5 33.7% 32.2% 38.4% 0.84× 3.10
Q3 over 37.5 32.8% 32.2% 30.3% 1.06× 3.10
Q3 under 29.5 23.9% 22.7% 28.2% 0.81× 4.40
Q3 over 39.5 23.2% 22.7% 22.1% 1.03× 4.40
Q3 under 26.5 12.6% 12.8% 16.2% 0.79× 7.83
Q3 over 42.5 12.2% 12.8% 12.2% 1.05× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Duke Blue Devils to win Q4 62.3% 57.8% 41.5% 1.39× 1.73
Columbia Lions to win Q4 32.3% 37.4% 52.8% 0.71× 2.68
Q4 tied 5.4% 5.8% 5.7% 1.02× 17.26
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 over 26.5 86.2% 85.6% 82.6% 1.04× 1.17
Q4 under 42.5 86.2% 85.6% 86.2% 0.99× 1.17
Q4 under 39.5 75.3% 76.9% 77.0% 1.00× 1.30
Q4 over 29.5 75.1% 76.9% 70.8% 1.09× 1.30
Q4 over 31.5 65.8% 67.4% 61.1% 1.10× 1.48
Q4 under 37.5 66.0% 67.4% 68.8% 0.98× 1.48
Q4 under 35.5 55.5% 58.4% 59.4% 0.98× 1.71
Q4 over 33.5 55.3% 58.4% 50.4% 1.16× 1.71
Q4 under 34.5 50.1% 52.5% 54.4% 0.96× 1.91
Q4 over 34.5 49.9% 47.5% 45.6% 1.04× 2.11
Q4 under 33.5 44.7% 41.6% 49.6% 0.84× 2.40
Q4 over 35.5 44.5% 41.6% 40.6% 1.03× 2.40
Q4 under 31.5 34.2% 32.6% 38.9% 0.84× 3.07
Q4 over 37.5 34.0% 32.6% 31.2% 1.04× 3.07
Q4 under 29.5 24.9% 23.1% 29.2% 0.79× 4.33
Q4 over 39.5 24.7% 23.1% 23.0% 1.00× 4.33
Q4 under 26.5 13.8% 14.4% 17.4% 0.83× 6.95
Q4 over 42.5 13.8% 14.4% 13.8% 1.04× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Duke Blue Devils under 81.5 87.3% 83.9% 92.0% 0.91× 1.19
Columbia Lions under 71.5 87.2% 83.9% 63.0% 1.33× 1.19
Columbia Lions over 51.5 84.0% 80.7% 89.3% 0.90× 1.24
Duke Blue Devils over 61.5 84.6% 80.7% 52.1% 1.55× 1.24
Columbia Lions under 68.5 79.5% 75.1% 54.4% 1.38× 1.33
Duke Blue Devils under 78.5 79.3% 75.1% 88.3% 0.85× 1.33
Duke Blue Devils over 64.5 75.7% 75.1% 43.2% 1.74× 1.33
Columbia Lions over 54.5 74.7% 70.7% 83.8% 0.84× 1.41
Duke Blue Devils under 76.5 72.5% 70.7% 85.8% 0.82× 1.41
Columbia Lions under 66.5 73.0% 70.7% 48.2% 1.47× 1.41
Duke Blue Devils over 66.5 68.5% 66.4% 37.3% 1.78× 1.51
Columbia Lions over 56.5 67.3% 66.4% 79.5% 0.83× 1.51
Columbia Lions under 64.5 65.6% 66.4% 41.6% 1.60× 1.51
Duke Blue Devils under 74.5 64.9% 61.2% 82.3% 0.74× 1.63
Duke Blue Devils over 68.5 60.5% 61.2% 31.4% 1.95× 1.63
Columbia Lions over 58.5 59.3% 57.1% 74.7% 0.76× 1.75
Columbia Lions under 62.5 57.6% 57.1% 35.7% 1.60× 1.75
Duke Blue Devils under 72.5 56.6% 57.1% 78.2% 0.73× 1.75
Columbia Lions under 61.5 53.4% 52.3% 33.1% 1.58× 1.91
Duke Blue Devils over 70.5 52.0% 52.3% 26.3% 1.99× 1.91
Duke Blue Devils under 71.5 52.3% 52.3% 76.1% 0.69× 1.91
Columbia Lions over 60.5 50.8% 52.3% 69.5% 0.75× 1.91
Columbia Lions under 60.5 49.2% 47.7% 30.5% 1.56× 2.09
Columbia Lions over 61.5 46.6% 47.7% 66.9% 0.71× 2.09
Duke Blue Devils under 70.5 48.0% 47.7% 73.7% 0.65× 2.09
Duke Blue Devils over 71.5 47.7% 47.7% 23.9% 1.99× 2.09
Columbia Lions over 62.5 42.4% 42.9% 64.3% 0.67× 2.33
Duke Blue Devils over 72.5 43.4% 42.9% 21.8% 1.97× 2.33
Columbia Lions under 58.5 40.7% 42.9% 25.3% 1.70× 2.33
Duke Blue Devils under 68.5 39.5% 38.8% 68.6% 0.57× 2.58
Duke Blue Devils over 74.5 35.1% 38.8% 17.7% 2.19× 2.58
Columbia Lions over 64.5 34.4% 33.6% 58.4% 0.58× 2.98
Columbia Lions under 56.5 32.7% 33.6% 20.5% 1.64× 2.98
Duke Blue Devils under 66.5 31.5% 33.6% 62.7% 0.54× 2.98
Duke Blue Devils over 76.5 27.5% 29.3% 14.2% 2.06× 3.42
Columbia Lions over 66.5 27.0% 29.3% 51.8% 0.56× 3.42
Columbia Lions under 54.5 25.3% 29.3% 16.2% 1.81× 3.42
Duke Blue Devils under 64.5 24.3% 24.9% 56.9% 0.44× 4.02
Duke Blue Devils over 78.5 20.7% 24.9% 11.7% 2.13× 4.02
Columbia Lions over 68.5 20.5% 24.9% 45.6% 0.55× 4.02
Columbia Lions under 51.5 16.0% 19.3% 10.7% 1.80× 5.18
Duke Blue Devils under 61.5 15.4% 19.3% 47.9% 0.40× 5.18
Duke Blue Devils over 81.5 12.7% 16.1% 8.0% 2.00× 6.21
Columbia Lions over 71.5 12.8% 16.1% 37.0% 0.44× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 152.5 points 91.7% 88.8% 88.1% 1.01× 1.13
Over 112.5 points 90.6% 88.8% 83.6% 1.06× 1.13
Under 147.5 points 85.5% 85.0% 82.3% 1.03× 1.18
Over 117.5 points 83.2% 80.6% 75.3% 1.07× 1.24
Under 142.5 points 76.5% 75.6% 75.1% 1.01× 1.32
Over 122.5 points 73.3% 70.8% 65.6% 1.08× 1.41
Under 139.5 points 70.0% 70.8% 69.9% 1.01× 1.41
Over 125.5 points 66.1% 65.9% 59.5% 1.11× 1.52
Under 137.5 points 65.2% 65.9% 66.2% 1.00× 1.52
Over 127.5 points 61.0% 61.5% 55.1% 1.12× 1.63
Under 135.5 points 60.2% 61.5% 62.4% 0.99× 1.63
Over 129.5 points 55.8% 56.5% 50.5% 1.12× 1.77
Under 133.5 points 54.9% 52.3% 58.0% 0.90× 1.91
Under 132.5 points 52.2% 52.3% 56.0% 0.94× 1.91
Over 131.5 points 50.4% 52.3% 46.1% 1.14× 1.91
Under 131.5 points 49.6% 47.7% 53.9% 0.88× 2.10
Over 132.5 points 47.8% 47.7% 44.0% 1.08× 2.10
Over 133.5 points 45.1% 47.7% 42.0% 1.14× 2.10
Under 129.5 points 44.2% 43.5% 49.5% 0.88× 2.30
Over 135.5 points 39.8% 38.5% 37.6% 1.02× 2.60
Under 127.5 points 39.0% 38.5% 44.9% 0.86× 2.60
Over 137.5 points 34.8% 34.1% 33.8% 1.01× 2.93
Under 125.5 points 33.9% 34.1% 40.5% 0.84× 2.93
Over 139.5 points 30.0% 29.2% 30.1% 0.97× 3.43
Under 122.5 points 26.7% 29.2% 34.4% 0.85× 3.43
Over 142.5 points 23.5% 24.4% 24.9% 0.98× 4.10
Under 117.5 points 16.8% 19.4% 24.7% 0.79× 5.15
Over 147.5 points 14.5% 15.0% 17.7% 0.84× 6.68
Under 112.5 points 9.4% 11.2% 16.4% 0.68× 8.96
Over 152.5 points 8.3% 11.2% 11.9% 0.94× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Duke Blue Devils to win both halves 46.0% 45.8% 20.4% 2.25× 2.18
Columbia Lions to win both halves 5.2% 8.8% 36.0% 0.24× 11.34
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Duke Blue Devils by 6-10 17.9% 16.8% 10.3% 1.63× 5.97
Duke Blue Devils by 11-15 17.6% 16.8% 7.6% 2.20× 5.97
Duke Blue Devils by 1-5 15.1% 16.8% 10.2% 1.65× 5.97
Duke Blue Devils by 16-20 14.1% 12.3% 4.8% 2.60× 8.11
Columbia Lions by 1-5 9.4% 7.5% 10.2% 0.73× 13.40
Duke Blue Devils by 21-25 9.3% 7.5% 2.7% 2.79× 13.40
Duke Blue Devils by 26+ 8.0% 7.5% 4.6% 1.62× 13.40
Columbia Lions by 6-10 5.1% 7.5% 12.9% 0.58× 13.41
Columbia Lions by 11-15 2.3% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.31
Columbia Lions by 16-20 0.9% 2.0% 8.0% 0.25× 49.32
Columbia Lions by 21-25 0.3% 2.0% 5.4% 0.38× 49.33
Columbia Lions by 26+ 0.1% 2.0% 12.6% 0.16× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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