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Florida State Seminoles v UNC Asheville Bulldogs — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 24 November 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Florida State Seminoles win
91.7%
Draw
0.0%
UNC Asheville Bulldogs win
8.3%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 82.01–67.58 82-68 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles to score 100+ 3.7% 0.4% 3.4% 0.10× 282.63
Florida State Seminoles to score 110+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.31
Florida State Seminoles to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.35
Florida State Seminoles to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
UNC Asheville Bulldogs to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 283.35
UNC Asheville Bulldogs to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.36
UNC Asheville Bulldogs to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
UNC Asheville Bulldogs to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.35
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles to win H1 77.1% 79.2% 57.9% 1.37× 1.26
Florida State Seminoles to win H1 77.1% 79.2% 57.9% 1.37× 1.26
UNC Asheville Bulldogs to win H1 19.6% 16.9% 38.2% 0.44× 5.90
UNC Asheville Bulldogs to win H1 19.5% 16.9% 38.2% 0.44× 5.91
H1 tied 3.3% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 tied 3.3% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 83.5 88.4% 87.7% 90.3% 0.97× 1.14
H1 over 59.5 85.6% 87.7% 80.7% 1.09× 1.14
H1 under 79.5 80.2% 82.5% 83.1% 0.99× 1.21
H1 under 79.5 79.4% 77.4% 83.1% 0.93× 1.29
H1 over 63.5 76.0% 77.4% 69.0% 1.12× 1.29
H1 over 63.5 75.3% 77.4% 69.0% 1.12× 1.29
H1 under 76.5 71.1% 73.5% 75.5% 0.97× 1.36
H1 under 76.5 70.5% 73.5% 75.5% 0.97× 1.36
H1 over 66.5 66.1% 67.4% 58.2% 1.16× 1.48
H1 over 66.5 65.6% 67.4% 58.2% 1.16× 1.48
H1 under 74.5 64.2% 62.7% 69.6% 0.90× 1.59
H1 under 74.5 63.7% 62.7% 69.6% 0.90× 1.59
H1 over 68.5 58.7% 58.2% 50.7% 1.15× 1.72
H1 over 68.5 58.4% 58.2% 50.7% 1.15× 1.72
H1 under 72.5 56.7% 58.2% 63.3% 0.92× 1.72
H1 under 72.5 56.5% 58.2% 63.3% 0.92× 1.72
H1 under 71.5 52.8% 52.6% 60.0% 0.88× 1.90
H1 under 71.5 52.8% 52.6% 60.0% 0.88× 1.90
H1 over 70.5 51.0% 52.6% 43.5% 1.21× 1.90
H1 over 70.5 51.0% 52.6% 43.5% 1.21× 1.90
H1 under 70.5 49.0% 47.4% 56.5% 0.84× 2.11
H1 under 70.5 49.0% 47.4% 56.5% 0.84× 2.11
H1 over 71.5 47.2% 47.4% 40.0% 1.19× 2.11
H1 over 71.5 47.2% 47.4% 40.0% 1.19× 2.11
H1 over 72.5 43.3% 41.8% 36.7% 1.14× 2.39
H1 over 72.5 43.5% 41.8% 36.7% 1.14× 2.39
H1 under 68.5 41.6% 41.8% 49.3% 0.85× 2.39
H1 under 68.5 41.3% 41.8% 49.3% 0.85× 2.39
H1 over 74.5 35.8% 37.3% 30.4% 1.23× 2.68
H1 over 74.5 36.3% 37.3% 30.4% 1.23× 2.68
H1 under 66.5 34.4% 32.6% 41.8% 0.78× 3.07
H1 under 66.5 33.9% 32.6% 41.8% 0.78× 3.07
H1 over 76.5 29.5% 26.5% 24.5% 1.08× 3.77
H1 over 76.5 28.9% 26.5% 24.5% 1.08× 3.77
H1 under 63.5 24.7% 22.6% 31.0% 0.73× 4.43
H1 under 63.5 24.0% 22.6% 31.0% 0.73× 4.43
H1 over 79.5 20.6% 22.6% 16.9% 1.34× 4.43
H1 over 79.5 19.8% 17.5% 16.9% 1.03× 5.72
H1 under 59.5 14.4% 12.3% 19.3% 0.64× 8.13
H1 over 83.5 11.6% 12.3% 9.7% 1.26× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles to win H2 78.9% 74.0% 56.9% 1.30× 1.35
Florida State Seminoles to win H2 78.8% 74.0% 57.5% 1.29× 1.35
UNC Asheville Bulldogs to win H2 18.1% 20.4% 38.5% 0.53× 4.89
UNC Asheville Bulldogs to win H2 18.0% 20.4% 38.9% 0.53× 4.89
H2 tied 3.1% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.36
H2 tied 3.1% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.36
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 91.5 86.9% 85.2% 85.5% 1.00× 1.17
H2 over 67.5 84.4% 81.8% 80.0% 1.02× 1.22
H2 under 87.5 78.5% 75.8% 81.2% 0.93× 1.32
H2 under 87.5 77.8% 75.8% 77.7% 0.98× 1.32
H2 over 71.5 75.0% 72.2% 66.4% 1.09× 1.39
H2 over 71.5 74.4% 72.2% 68.8% 1.05× 1.39
H2 under 84.5 69.6% 66.4% 74.1% 0.90× 1.51
H2 under 84.5 69.1% 66.4% 70.5% 0.94× 1.51
H2 over 74.5 65.5% 66.4% 57.0% 1.16× 1.51
H2 over 74.5 65.1% 66.4% 60.0% 1.11× 1.51
H2 under 82.5 63.0% 61.6% 68.9% 0.89× 1.62
H2 under 82.5 62.6% 61.6% 65.3% 0.94× 1.62
H2 over 76.5 58.6% 57.3% 50.3% 1.14× 1.74
H2 over 76.5 58.4% 57.3% 53.4% 1.07× 1.74
H2 under 80.5 55.9% 57.3% 62.9% 0.91× 1.74
H2 under 80.5 55.7% 57.3% 59.2% 0.97× 1.74
H2 over 78.5 51.4% 52.4% 43.6% 1.20× 1.91
H2 under 79.5 52.3% 52.4% 59.8% 0.88× 1.91
H2 under 79.5 52.2% 52.4% 56.2% 0.93× 1.91
H2 over 78.5 51.3% 52.4% 47.0% 1.11× 1.91
H2 under 78.5 48.7% 47.6% 53.0% 0.90× 2.10
H2 under 78.5 48.6% 47.6% 56.4% 0.84× 2.10
H2 over 79.5 47.7% 47.6% 40.3% 1.18× 2.10
H2 over 79.5 47.8% 47.6% 43.8% 1.09× 2.10
H2 over 80.5 44.1% 42.7% 37.1% 1.15× 2.34
H2 over 80.5 44.3% 42.7% 40.8% 1.05× 2.34
H2 under 76.5 41.6% 42.7% 46.6% 0.92× 2.34
H2 under 76.5 41.4% 42.7% 49.7% 0.86× 2.34
H2 over 82.5 37.0% 38.4% 31.1% 1.23× 2.61
H2 over 82.5 37.4% 38.4% 34.7% 1.11× 2.61
H2 under 74.5 34.5% 33.6% 43.0% 0.78× 2.97
H2 under 74.5 34.9% 33.6% 40.0% 0.84× 2.97
H2 over 84.5 30.4% 33.6% 25.9% 1.30× 2.97
H2 over 84.5 30.9% 33.6% 29.5% 1.14× 2.97
H2 under 71.5 25.6% 27.8% 31.2% 0.89× 3.59
H2 under 71.5 25.0% 27.8% 33.6% 0.83× 3.59
H2 over 87.5 21.5% 24.2% 18.8% 1.29× 4.13
H2 over 87.5 22.2% 24.2% 22.3% 1.08× 4.13
H2 under 67.5 15.6% 18.2% 20.0% 0.91× 5.50
H2 over 91.5 13.1% 14.8% 14.5% 1.02× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles leading at half time 77.1% 79.7% 57.9% 1.38× 1.26
UNC Asheville Bulldogs leading at half time 19.6% 17.1% 38.2% 0.45× 5.86
Level at half time 3.3% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles +14.5 99.6% 97.4% 92.2% 1.06× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +16.5 99.8% 97.4% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +18.5 99.9% 97.4% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +20.5 99.9% 97.4% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +12.5 99.4% 97.4% 89.9% 1.08× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +4.5 96.1% 97.4% 73.7% 1.32× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +5.5 96.8% 97.4% 76.4% 1.28× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +6.5 97.4% 97.4% 78.8% 1.24× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +7.5 97.9% 97.4% 81.0% 1.20× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +8.5 98.3% 97.4% 83.3% 1.17× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +9.5 98.7% 97.4% 85.3% 1.14× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +10.5 99.0% 97.4% 87.2% 1.12× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +3.5 95.2% 97.4% 70.8% 1.38× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +2.5 94.2% 91.1% 68.0% 1.34× 1.10
Florida State Seminoles +1.5 93.0% 91.1% 65.4% 1.39× 1.10
Florida State Seminoles −1.5 89.9% 85.9% 60.8% 1.41× 1.16
Florida State Seminoles −2.5 88.0% 85.9% 57.7% 1.49× 1.16
Florida State Seminoles −3.5 85.9% 85.9% 54.1% 1.59× 1.16
Florida State Seminoles −4.5 83.5% 81.1% 50.7% 1.60× 1.23
Florida State Seminoles −5.5 80.9% 81.1% 47.0% 1.72× 1.23
Florida State Seminoles −6.5 78.2% 76.5% 44.3% 1.73× 1.31
Florida State Seminoles −7.5 75.2% 76.5% 41.3% 1.85× 1.31
UNC Asheville Bulldogs +20.5 71.1% 71.6% 86.5% 0.83× 1.40
Florida State Seminoles −8.5 72.0% 71.6% 38.5% 1.86× 1.40
Florida State Seminoles −9.5 68.7% 66.7% 35.5% 1.88× 1.50
Florida State Seminoles −10.5 65.2% 66.7% 32.6% 2.04× 1.50
UNC Asheville Bulldogs +18.5 64.3% 61.9% 83.9% 0.74× 1.62
Florida State Seminoles −12.5 58.0% 57.1% 27.6% 2.07× 1.75
UNC Asheville Bulldogs +16.5 57.1% 57.1% 80.7% 0.71× 1.75
Florida State Seminoles −14.5 50.4% 52.4% 22.8% 2.30× 1.91
UNC Asheville Bulldogs +14.5 49.6% 47.6% 77.2% 0.62× 2.10
Florida State Seminoles −16.5 42.9% 42.9% 19.3% 2.23× 2.33
UNC Asheville Bulldogs +12.5 42.0% 42.9% 72.4% 0.59× 2.33
Florida State Seminoles −18.5 35.7% 38.1% 16.1% 2.36× 2.63
UNC Asheville Bulldogs +10.5 34.8% 33.3% 67.4% 0.49× 3.01
UNC Asheville Bulldogs +9.5 31.3% 33.3% 64.5% 0.52× 3.01
Florida State Seminoles −20.5 28.9% 28.4% 13.5% 2.11× 3.53
UNC Asheville Bulldogs +8.5 28.0% 28.4% 61.5% 0.46× 3.53
UNC Asheville Bulldogs +7.5 24.8% 23.5% 58.7% 0.40× 4.25
UNC Asheville Bulldogs +6.5 21.8% 23.5% 55.7% 0.42× 4.25
UNC Asheville Bulldogs +5.5 19.1% 18.9% 53.0% 0.36× 5.29
UNC Asheville Bulldogs +4.5 16.5% 18.9% 49.3% 0.38× 5.30
UNC Asheville Bulldogs +3.5 14.1% 14.1% 45.9% 0.31× 7.09
UNC Asheville Bulldogs +2.5 12.0% 14.1% 42.3% 0.33× 7.09
UNC Asheville Bulldogs +1.5 10.1% 14.1% 39.2% 0.36× 7.09
UNC Asheville Bulldogs −1.5 7.0% 8.9% 34.6% 0.26× 11.25
UNC Asheville Bulldogs −2.5 5.8% 8.9% 32.0% 0.28× 11.25
UNC Asheville Bulldogs −3.5 4.8% 2.6% 29.3% 0.09× 38.72
UNC Asheville Bulldogs −4.5 3.9% 2.6% 26.3% 0.10× 38.72
UNC Asheville Bulldogs −5.5 3.2% 2.6% 23.6% 0.11× 38.73
UNC Asheville Bulldogs −6.5 2.6% 2.6% 21.2% 0.12× 38.73
UNC Asheville Bulldogs −7.5 2.1% 2.6% 19.0% 0.14× 38.73
UNC Asheville Bulldogs −8.5 1.7% 2.6% 16.7% 0.16× 38.73
UNC Asheville Bulldogs −9.5 1.3% 2.6% 14.7% 0.18× 38.74
UNC Asheville Bulldogs −10.5 1.0% 2.6% 12.8% 0.20× 38.74
UNC Asheville Bulldogs −14.5 0.4% 2.6% 7.8% 0.33× 38.74
UNC Asheville Bulldogs −16.5 0.2% 2.6% 6.0% 0.43× 38.74
UNC Asheville Bulldogs −18.5 0.1% 2.6% 4.6% 0.57× 38.74
UNC Asheville Bulldogs −20.5 0.1% 2.6% 3.5% 0.75× 38.74
UNC Asheville Bulldogs −12.5 0.6% 2.6% 10.1% 0.26× 38.74
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 highest scoring 79.6% 71.6% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
2nd half highest scoring 78.1% 71.6% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 21.9% 28.4% 27.5% 1.03× 3.53
H1 highest scoring 20.4% 28.4% 29.6% 0.96× 3.53
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles at HT / Florida State Seminoles at FT 74.2% 73.2% 48.6% 1.51× 1.37
UNC Asheville Bulldogs at HT / Florida State Seminoles at FT 14.5% 12.2% 12.4% 0.99× 8.17
UNC Asheville Bulldogs at HT / UNC Asheville Bulldogs at FT 5.1% 8.3% 25.8% 0.32× 12.10
Florida State Seminoles at HT / UNC Asheville Bulldogs at FT 2.8% 2.1% 9.3% 0.22× 47.74
Level at HT / Florida State Seminoles at FT 2.9% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.74
Level at HT / UNC Asheville Bulldogs at FT 0.4% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles to win 91.7% 90.6% 63.2% 1.43× 1.10
UNC Asheville Bulldogs to win 8.3% 9.4% 36.8% 0.26× 10.63
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
UNC Asheville Bulldogs even 50.0% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 50.8% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
Florida State Seminoles odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
UNC Asheville Bulldogs odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 49.2% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 95.4% 97.0% 94.2% 1.03× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 4.6% 3.0% 5.8% 0.52× 33.34
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles under 92.5 85.7% 83.9% 90.8% 0.92× 1.19
UNC Asheville Bulldogs over 57.5 85.4% 83.9% 88.1% 0.95× 1.19
UNC Asheville Bulldogs under 77.5 85.4% 83.9% 70.9% 1.18× 1.19
Florida State Seminoles over 72.5 84.0% 80.7% 60.8% 1.33× 1.24
Florida State Seminoles under 89.5 77.6% 75.1% 86.5% 0.87× 1.33
UNC Asheville Bulldogs over 60.5 76.9% 75.1% 82.0% 0.92× 1.33
UNC Asheville Bulldogs under 74.5 77.0% 75.1% 61.7% 1.22× 1.33
Florida State Seminoles over 75.5 75.3% 75.1% 51.0% 1.47× 1.33
Florida State Seminoles under 87.5 70.9% 70.7% 82.8% 0.85× 1.41
UNC Asheville Bulldogs over 62.5 70.0% 70.7% 76.6% 0.92× 1.41
UNC Asheville Bulldogs under 72.5 70.1% 70.7% 55.3% 1.28× 1.41
Florida State Seminoles over 77.5 68.4% 66.4% 44.6% 1.49× 1.51
Florida State Seminoles under 85.5 63.5% 61.2% 78.6% 0.78× 1.63
UNC Asheville Bulldogs over 64.5 62.3% 61.2% 70.7% 0.87× 1.63
UNC Asheville Bulldogs under 70.5 62.5% 61.2% 48.7% 1.26× 1.63
Florida State Seminoles over 79.5 60.8% 61.2% 38.4% 1.59× 1.63
Florida State Seminoles under 83.5 55.5% 57.1% 73.5% 0.78× 1.75
UNC Asheville Bulldogs over 66.5 54.1% 52.3% 64.7% 0.81× 1.91
UNC Asheville Bulldogs under 68.5 54.3% 52.3% 41.6% 1.26× 1.91
Florida State Seminoles over 81.5 52.7% 52.3% 32.1% 1.63× 1.91
Florida State Seminoles under 82.5 51.4% 52.3% 70.8% 0.74× 1.91
UNC Asheville Bulldogs under 67.5 50.1% 52.3% 38.4% 1.36× 1.91
UNC Asheville Bulldogs over 67.5 49.9% 47.7% 61.6% 0.78× 2.09
Florida State Seminoles under 81.5 47.3% 47.7% 67.9% 0.70× 2.09
Florida State Seminoles over 82.5 48.6% 47.7% 29.2% 1.63× 2.09
UNC Asheville Bulldogs under 66.5 45.9% 47.7% 35.3% 1.35× 2.09
UNC Asheville Bulldogs over 68.5 45.7% 47.7% 58.4% 0.82× 2.09
Florida State Seminoles over 83.5 44.5% 42.9% 26.5% 1.62× 2.33
Florida State Seminoles under 79.5 39.2% 38.8% 61.6% 0.63× 2.58
Florida State Seminoles over 85.5 36.5% 38.8% 21.4% 1.81× 2.58
UNC Asheville Bulldogs under 64.5 37.7% 38.8% 29.3% 1.33× 2.58
UNC Asheville Bulldogs over 70.5 37.5% 38.8% 51.4% 0.76× 2.58
Florida State Seminoles under 77.5 31.6% 33.6% 55.4% 0.61× 2.98
Florida State Seminoles over 87.5 29.1% 29.3% 17.2% 1.71× 3.42
UNC Asheville Bulldogs under 62.5 30.0% 29.3% 23.4% 1.25× 3.42
UNC Asheville Bulldogs over 72.5 29.9% 29.3% 44.7% 0.65× 3.42
Florida State Seminoles under 75.5 24.7% 24.9% 49.0% 0.51× 4.02
Florida State Seminoles over 89.5 22.4% 24.9% 13.5% 1.84× 4.02
UNC Asheville Bulldogs under 60.5 23.1% 24.9% 18.0% 1.38× 4.02
UNC Asheville Bulldogs over 74.5 23.0% 24.9% 38.3% 0.65× 4.02
Florida State Seminoles under 72.5 16.0% 19.3% 39.2% 0.49× 5.18
Florida State Seminoles over 92.5 14.3% 16.1% 9.2% 1.75× 6.21
UNC Asheville Bulldogs under 57.5 14.6% 16.1% 11.9% 1.35× 6.21
UNC Asheville Bulldogs over 77.5 14.6% 16.1% 29.1% 0.55× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 129.5 points 89.7% 85.0% 83.3% 1.02× 1.18
Under 169.5 points 89.3% 85.0% 87.7% 0.97× 1.18
Over 134.5 points 82.8% 80.6% 74.7% 1.08× 1.24
Under 164.5 points 82.3% 80.6% 82.3% 0.98× 1.24
Over 139.5 points 73.7% 70.8% 64.6% 1.10× 1.41
Under 159.5 points 73.1% 70.8% 75.0% 0.94× 1.41
Over 142.5 points 67.2% 65.9% 58.3% 1.13× 1.52
Under 156.5 points 66.6% 65.9% 69.8% 0.94× 1.52
Over 144.5 points 62.6% 61.5% 54.1% 1.14× 1.63
Under 154.5 points 61.9% 61.5% 66.4% 0.93× 1.63
Over 146.5 points 57.8% 56.5% 49.8% 1.13× 1.77
Under 152.5 points 57.1% 56.5% 62.7% 0.90× 1.77
Over 148.5 points 52.8% 52.3% 45.7% 1.14× 1.91
Under 150.5 points 52.2% 52.3% 58.4% 0.90× 1.91
Over 149.5 points 50.3% 52.3% 43.7% 1.20× 1.91
Under 149.5 points 49.7% 47.7% 56.3% 0.85× 2.10
Under 148.5 points 47.2% 47.7% 54.3% 0.88× 2.10
Over 150.5 points 47.9% 47.7% 41.6% 1.15× 2.10
Under 146.5 points 42.2% 43.5% 50.2% 0.87× 2.30
Over 152.5 points 42.9% 43.5% 37.4% 1.16× 2.30
Over 154.5 points 38.1% 38.5% 33.6% 1.15× 2.60
Under 144.5 points 37.4% 38.5% 45.9% 0.84× 2.60
Under 142.5 points 32.8% 34.1% 41.7% 0.82× 2.93
Over 156.5 points 33.4% 34.1% 30.2% 1.13× 2.93
Over 159.5 points 26.9% 29.2% 25.0% 1.17× 3.43
Under 139.5 points 26.3% 29.2% 35.4% 0.82× 3.43
Over 164.5 points 17.7% 19.4% 17.7% 1.10× 5.15
Under 134.5 points 17.2% 19.4% 25.3% 0.77× 5.15
Under 129.5 points 10.4% 15.0% 16.7% 0.89× 6.69
Over 169.5 points 10.7% 15.0% 12.3% 1.22× 6.69
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles to win both halves 58.7% 57.8% 33.2% 1.74× 1.73
UNC Asheville Bulldogs to win both halves 1.9% 3.0% 14.5% 0.20× 33.73
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles by 11-15 18.6% 16.8% 11.6% 1.45× 5.97
Florida State Seminoles by 16-20 17.7% 16.8% 7.6% 2.20× 5.97
Florida State Seminoles by 6-10 15.7% 16.8% 14.4% 1.16× 5.97
Florida State Seminoles by 26+ 15.2% 16.8% 7.9% 2.12× 5.97
Florida State Seminoles by 21-25 13.7% 12.3% 5.6% 2.22× 8.11
Florida State Seminoles by 1-5 10.7% 12.3% 16.2% 0.76× 8.11
UNC Asheville Bulldogs by 1-5 5.1% 7.5% 13.2% 0.57× 13.41
UNC Asheville Bulldogs by 6-10 2.2% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.31
UNC Asheville Bulldogs by 11-15 0.8% 2.0% 6.1% 0.34× 49.32
UNC Asheville Bulldogs by 16-20 0.2% 2.0% 3.3% 0.61× 49.33
UNC Asheville Bulldogs by 21-25 0.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 49.33
UNC Asheville Bulldogs by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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