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Indiana Pacers v Philadelphia 76ers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Indiana Pacers win
40.4%
Draw
0.0%
Philadelphia 76ers win
59.6%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 115.62–119.05 116-119 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to score 100+ 95.3% 94.8% 85.9% 1.10× 1.05
Indiana Pacers to score 100+ 91.3% 90.3% 89.3% 1.01× 1.11
Both sides to score 100+ 87.4% 85.0% 77.5% 1.10× 1.18
Philadelphia 76ers to score 110+ 79.4% 77.0% 60.9% 1.26× 1.30
Indiana Pacers to score 110+ 69.6% 63.9% 67.0% 0.95× 1.57
Philadelphia 76ers to score 120+ 48.7% 47.0% 29.7% 1.58× 2.13
Indiana Pacers to score 120+ 37.0% 36.0% 36.5% 0.98× 2.78
Philadelphia 76ers to score 130+ 18.8% 17.6% 10.0% 1.76× 5.69
Indiana Pacers to score 130+ 12.0% 13.8% 12.8% 1.08× 7.24
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to win H1 54.5% 51.9% 44.1% 1.18× 1.93
Indiana Pacers to win H1 42.0% 42.7% 52.8% 0.81× 2.34
H1 tied 3.5% 3.9% 3.1% 1.25× 25.86
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 129.5 82.8% 83.2% 88.1% 0.94× 1.20
H1 over 105.5 81.0% 83.2% 75.8% 1.10× 1.20
H1 over 106.5 82.1% 82.5% 73.3% 1.13× 1.21
H1 under 130.5 82.3% 82.5% 89.6% 0.92× 1.21
H1 under 125.5 74.0% 74.0% 80.7% 0.92× 1.35
H1 over 109.5 71.7% 73.9% 65.0% 1.14× 1.35
H1 under 126.5 73.2% 73.5% 82.8% 0.89× 1.36
H1 over 110.5 72.9% 73.5% 61.9% 1.19× 1.36
H1 under 122.5 66.1% 68.1% 74.0% 0.92× 1.47
H1 under 123.5 65.1% 67.4% 76.0% 0.89× 1.48
H1 over 112.5 63.5% 63.3% 55.8% 1.13× 1.58
H1 under 120.5 60.4% 63.3% 68.4% 0.92× 1.58
H1 over 113.5 64.8% 62.7% 52.4% 1.20× 1.59
H1 over 115.5 58.9% 58.2% 46.4% 1.26× 1.72
H1 under 121.5 59.3% 58.2% 71.2% 0.82× 1.72
H1 over 114.5 57.7% 58.1% 49.6% 1.17× 1.72
H1 over 117.5 52.9% 52.6% 40.4% 1.30× 1.90
H1 under 119.5 53.3% 52.6% 65.9% 0.80× 1.90
H1 under 118.5 50.2% 52.6% 62.9% 0.84× 1.90
H1 over 116.5 51.7% 52.5% 43.4% 1.21× 1.90
H1 under 116.5 48.3% 47.5% 56.6% 0.84× 2.11
H1 over 118.5 49.8% 47.4% 37.1% 1.28× 2.11
H1 under 117.5 47.1% 47.4% 59.6% 0.79× 2.11
H1 over 119.5 46.7% 47.4% 34.1% 1.39× 2.11
H1 under 114.5 42.3% 41.9% 50.4% 0.83× 2.39
H1 under 115.5 41.1% 41.8% 53.6% 0.78× 2.39
H1 over 121.5 40.7% 41.8% 28.8% 1.45× 2.39
H1 under 113.5 35.2% 37.3% 47.6% 0.78× 2.68
H1 over 120.5 39.6% 36.7% 31.6% 1.16× 2.72
H1 under 112.5 36.5% 36.7% 44.2% 0.83× 2.72
H1 over 123.5 34.9% 32.6% 24.0% 1.36× 3.07
H1 over 122.5 33.9% 31.9% 26.0% 1.23× 3.13
H1 under 110.5 27.1% 26.5% 38.1% 0.70× 3.77
H1 over 126.5 26.8% 26.5% 17.2% 1.54× 3.77
H1 under 109.5 28.3% 26.1% 35.0% 0.74× 3.84
H1 over 125.5 26.0% 26.0% 19.3% 1.35× 3.84
H1 under 106.5 17.9% 17.5% 26.7% 0.65× 5.73
H1 over 130.5 17.7% 17.5% 10.4% 1.68× 5.73
H1 under 105.5 19.0% 16.8% 24.2% 0.69× 5.96
H1 over 129.5 17.2% 16.8% 11.9% 1.41× 5.96
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to win H2 54.4% 51.2% 44.7% 1.15× 1.95
Indiana Pacers to win H2 42.1% 43.5% 51.6% 0.84× 2.30
H2 tied 3.5% 3.9% 3.7% 1.06× 25.36
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 128.5 83.0% 81.8% 86.3% 0.95× 1.22
H2 over 104.5 81.9% 81.8% 73.9% 1.11× 1.22
H2 under 127.5 83.4% 81.5% 84.9% 0.96× 1.23
H2 over 103.5 80.9% 81.5% 76.2% 1.07× 1.23
H2 under 123.5 74.6% 72.5% 76.9% 0.94× 1.38
H2 over 107.5 71.4% 72.5% 66.2% 1.09× 1.38
H2 under 124.5 74.0% 72.2% 79.1% 0.91× 1.39
H2 over 108.5 72.6% 72.2% 63.8% 1.13× 1.39
H2 under 121.5 65.9% 66.4% 72.0% 0.92× 1.51
H2 under 120.5 66.7% 64.4% 69.3% 0.93× 1.55
H2 over 110.5 63.1% 62.6% 58.1% 1.08× 1.60
H2 under 118.5 61.0% 62.6% 63.6% 0.98× 1.60
H2 over 111.5 64.3% 61.6% 55.3% 1.11× 1.62
H2 under 119.5 60.0% 61.6% 66.4% 0.93× 1.62
H2 over 112.5 57.2% 58.0% 52.6% 1.10× 1.72
H2 over 113.5 58.4% 57.3% 49.9% 1.15× 1.74
H2 under 117.5 53.9% 52.4% 61.1% 0.86× 1.91
H2 over 115.5 52.3% 52.4% 44.6% 1.17× 1.91
H2 under 116.5 50.8% 52.4% 58.1% 0.90× 1.91
H2 over 114.5 51.1% 52.0% 47.5% 1.10× 1.92
H2 under 114.5 48.9% 48.0% 52.5% 0.91× 2.09
H2 over 116.5 49.2% 47.6% 41.9% 1.14× 2.10
H2 under 115.5 47.7% 47.6% 55.4% 0.86× 2.10
H2 over 117.5 46.1% 47.6% 38.9% 1.22× 2.10
H2 under 113.5 41.6% 42.7% 50.1% 0.85× 2.34
H2 under 112.5 42.8% 42.0% 47.4% 0.89× 2.38
H2 over 119.5 40.0% 38.4% 33.6% 1.14× 2.61
H2 under 111.5 35.7% 38.4% 44.7% 0.86× 2.61
H2 over 118.5 39.0% 37.4% 36.4% 1.03× 2.67
H2 under 110.5 36.9% 37.4% 41.9% 0.89× 2.67
H2 over 120.5 33.3% 35.6% 30.7% 1.16× 2.81
H2 over 121.5 34.1% 33.6% 28.0% 1.20× 2.97
H2 under 108.5 27.4% 27.8% 36.2% 0.77× 3.59
H2 over 124.5 26.1% 27.8% 20.9% 1.33× 3.59
H2 under 107.5 28.6% 27.5% 33.8% 0.82× 3.63
H2 over 123.5 25.4% 27.5% 23.1% 1.19× 3.64
H2 under 103.5 19.1% 18.5% 23.8% 0.78× 5.41
H2 over 127.5 16.6% 18.5% 15.1% 1.22× 5.41
H2 under 104.5 18.1% 18.2% 26.1% 0.70× 5.50
H2 over 128.5 17.0% 18.2% 13.7% 1.32× 5.50
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers leading at half time 54.5% 51.9% 44.1% 1.18× 1.93
Indiana Pacers leading at half time 42.0% 42.8% 52.8% 0.81× 2.33
Level at half time 3.5% 3.8% 3.1% 1.22× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers +20.5 94.9% 91.1% 89.1% 1.02× 1.10
Philadelphia 76ers +18.5 93.3% 91.1% 86.4% 1.05× 1.10
Philadelphia 76ers +16.5 91.3% 91.1% 83.5% 1.09× 1.10
Philadelphia 76ers +14.5 88.9% 85.9% 80.1% 1.07× 1.16
Indiana Pacers +20.5 87.7% 85.9% 93.1% 0.92× 1.16
Philadelphia 76ers +12.5 86.0% 85.9% 76.0% 1.13× 1.16
Indiana Pacers +18.5 84.7% 81.1% 91.5% 0.89× 1.23
Philadelphia 76ers +10.5 82.7% 81.1% 71.0% 1.14× 1.23
Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 80.9% 81.1% 68.7% 1.18× 1.23
Indiana Pacers +16.5 81.1% 81.1% 89.7% 0.90× 1.23
Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 78.9% 76.5% 65.9% 1.16× 1.31
Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 76.8% 76.5% 63.0% 1.21× 1.31
Indiana Pacers +14.5 77.1% 76.5% 87.0% 0.88× 1.31
Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 74.7% 71.6% 60.0% 1.19× 1.40
Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 72.4% 71.6% 57.1% 1.25× 1.40
Indiana Pacers +12.5 72.7% 71.6% 83.9% 0.85× 1.40
Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 70.0% 66.7% 54.1% 1.23× 1.50
Philadelphia 76ers +3.5 67.5% 66.7% 51.6% 1.29× 1.50
Indiana Pacers +10.5 67.8% 66.7% 80.3% 0.83× 1.50
Indiana Pacers +9.5 65.3% 66.7% 78.1% 0.85× 1.50
Philadelphia 76ers +2.5 64.9% 61.9% 49.1% 1.26× 1.62
Indiana Pacers +8.5 62.7% 61.9% 75.7% 0.82× 1.62
Philadelphia 76ers +1.5 62.3% 61.9% 46.3% 1.34× 1.62
Indiana Pacers +7.5 60.0% 57.1% 73.0% 0.78× 1.75
Philadelphia 76ers −1.5 56.8% 57.1% 42.1% 1.35× 1.75
Indiana Pacers +6.5 57.2% 57.1% 70.6% 0.81× 1.75
Indiana Pacers +5.5 54.5% 52.4% 68.0% 0.77× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers −2.5 54.0% 52.4% 39.5% 1.33× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers −3.5 51.2% 52.4% 36.9% 1.42× 1.91
Indiana Pacers +4.5 51.6% 52.4% 65.7% 0.80× 1.91
Indiana Pacers +3.5 48.8% 47.6% 63.1% 0.75× 2.10
Philadelphia 76ers −4.5 48.4% 47.6% 34.3% 1.39× 2.10
Indiana Pacers +2.5 46.0% 47.6% 60.5% 0.79× 2.10
Philadelphia 76ers −5.5 45.5% 47.6% 32.0% 1.49× 2.10
Indiana Pacers +1.5 43.2% 42.9% 57.9% 0.74× 2.33
Philadelphia 76ers −6.5 42.8% 42.9% 29.4% 1.46× 2.33
Philadelphia 76ers −7.5 40.0% 42.9% 27.0% 1.59× 2.33
Indiana Pacers −1.5 37.7% 38.1% 53.7% 0.71× 2.63
Philadelphia 76ers −8.5 37.3% 38.1% 24.3% 1.57× 2.63
Indiana Pacers −2.5 35.1% 38.1% 50.9% 0.75× 2.63
Philadelphia 76ers −9.5 34.7% 33.3% 21.9% 1.52× 3.01
Indiana Pacers −3.5 32.5% 33.3% 48.4% 0.69× 3.01
Philadelphia 76ers −10.5 32.2% 33.3% 19.7% 1.69× 3.01
Indiana Pacers −4.5 30.0% 33.3% 46.0% 0.72× 3.01
Indiana Pacers −5.5 27.6% 28.4% 42.9% 0.66× 3.53
Philadelphia 76ers −12.5 27.3% 28.4% 16.1% 1.76× 3.53
Indiana Pacers −6.5 25.3% 28.4% 40.0% 0.71× 3.53
Indiana Pacers −7.5 23.2% 23.5% 37.0% 0.64× 4.25
Philadelphia 76ers −14.5 22.9% 23.5% 13.0% 1.81× 4.25
Indiana Pacers −8.5 21.1% 23.5% 34.1% 0.69× 4.25
Indiana Pacers −9.5 19.1% 18.9% 31.3% 0.60× 5.29
Philadelphia 76ers −16.5 18.9% 18.9% 10.3% 1.83× 5.29
Indiana Pacers −10.5 17.3% 18.9% 29.0% 0.65× 5.29
Philadelphia 76ers −18.5 15.3% 18.9% 8.5% 2.22× 5.30
Indiana Pacers −12.5 14.0% 14.1% 24.0% 0.59× 7.09
Philadelphia 76ers −20.5 12.3% 14.1% 6.9% 2.05× 7.09
Indiana Pacers −14.5 11.1% 14.1% 19.9% 0.71× 7.09
Indiana Pacers −16.5 8.7% 8.9% 16.5% 0.54× 11.25
Indiana Pacers −18.5 6.7% 8.9% 13.6% 0.65× 11.25
Indiana Pacers −20.5 5.1% 8.9% 10.9% 0.82× 11.25
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1st half highest scoring 56.8% 52.6% 53.5% 0.98× 1.90
2nd half highest scoring 43.2% 47.4% 46.5% 1.02× 2.11
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.4% 27.4% 29.2% 0.94× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 28.1% 27.4% 27.5% 1.00× 3.65
Q2 highest scoring 26.6% 27.4% 26.3% 1.04× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 17.0% 18.3% 17.0% 1.08× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers at HT / Philadelphia 76ers at FT 43.7% 41.0% 30.9% 1.33× 2.44
Indiana Pacers at HT / Indiana Pacers at FT 28.1% 29.6% 40.8% 0.73× 3.38
Indiana Pacers at HT / Philadelphia 76ers at FT 14.0% 12.2% 12.0% 1.02× 8.17
Philadelphia 76ers at HT / Indiana Pacers at FT 10.9% 12.2% 13.3% 0.92× 8.18
Level at HT / Indiana Pacers at FT 1.5% 2.1% 1.7% 1.22× 47.77
Level at HT / Philadelphia 76ers at FT 2.0% 2.1% 1.4% 1.50× 47.76
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to win 59.6% 55.2% 44.3% 1.25× 1.81
Indiana Pacers to win 40.4% 44.8% 55.7% 0.80× 2.23
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.4% 50.5% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
Indiana Pacers even 50.0% 50.5% 49.7% 1.02× 1.98
Philadelphia 76ers even 50.0% 50.5% 50.3% 1.00× 1.98
Indiana Pacers odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.3% 0.98× 2.02
Philadelphia 76ers odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.7% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.6% 49.5% 49.0% 1.01× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 93.0% 94.0% 94.8% 0.99× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 7.0% 6.0% 5.2% 1.16× 16.65
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to win Q1 51.9% 52.6% 44.1% 1.19× 1.90
Indiana Pacers to win Q1 43.4% 42.9% 51.3% 0.84× 2.33
Q1 tied 4.8% 4.2% 4.6% 0.90× 23.94
Q1 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 50.5 83.0% 83.2% 79.4% 1.05× 1.20
Q1 under 66.5 82.0% 83.2% 86.1% 0.97× 1.20
Q1 under 67.5 83.1% 82.8% 88.8% 0.93× 1.21
Q1 over 51.5 82.3% 82.8% 76.0% 1.09× 1.21
Q1 over 53.5 72.7% 73.1% 68.2% 1.07× 1.37
Q1 under 63.5 71.4% 73.1% 76.8% 0.95× 1.37
Q1 under 64.5 72.7% 72.7% 80.1% 0.91× 1.38
Q1 over 54.5 71.7% 72.7% 63.3% 1.15× 1.38
Q1 over 55.5 64.5% 62.3% 59.2% 1.05× 1.61
Q1 under 61.5 63.0% 62.3% 68.5% 0.91× 1.61
Q1 under 62.5 64.4% 61.7% 72.9% 0.85× 1.62
Q1 over 56.5 63.2% 61.7% 54.6% 1.13× 1.62
Q1 over 57.5 55.5% 59.2% 49.6% 1.19× 1.69
Q1 under 60.5 55.3% 58.6% 64.5% 0.91× 1.71
Q1 over 58.5 54.1% 52.7% 44.3% 1.19× 1.90
Q1 under 59.5 50.6% 52.7% 60.0% 0.88× 1.90
Q1 over 59.5 49.4% 47.3% 40.0% 1.18× 2.11
Q1 under 58.5 45.9% 47.3% 55.7% 0.85× 2.11
Q1 over 60.5 44.7% 41.4% 35.5% 1.17× 2.42
Q1 under 57.5 44.5% 40.8% 50.4% 0.81× 2.45
Q1 under 56.5 36.8% 38.3% 45.4% 0.84× 2.61
Q1 over 62.5 35.6% 38.3% 27.1% 1.41× 2.61
Q1 over 61.5 37.0% 37.7% 31.5% 1.20× 2.65
Q1 under 55.5 35.5% 37.7% 40.8% 0.92× 2.65
Q1 under 54.5 28.3% 27.3% 36.7% 0.74× 3.66
Q1 over 64.5 27.3% 27.3% 19.9% 1.37× 3.66
Q1 over 63.5 28.6% 26.9% 23.2% 1.16× 3.72
Q1 under 53.5 27.3% 26.9% 31.8% 0.85× 3.72
Q1 under 51.5 17.7% 17.2% 24.0% 0.71× 5.83
Q1 over 67.5 16.9% 17.2% 11.2% 1.53× 5.83
Q1 over 66.5 18.0% 16.8% 13.9% 1.21× 5.95
Q1 under 50.5 17.0% 16.8% 20.6% 0.82× 5.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to win Q2 51.9% 51.4% 46.2% 1.11× 1.95
Indiana Pacers to win Q2 43.4% 43.9% 49.3% 0.89× 2.28
Q2 tied 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 0.98× 22.88
Q2 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 66.5 82.8% 83.1% 86.5% 0.96× 1.20
Q2 over 50.5 82.0% 83.1% 78.1% 1.06× 1.20
Q2 under 67.5 83.8% 83.0% 88.7% 0.94× 1.21
Q2 over 51.5 81.2% 83.0% 74.2% 1.12× 1.21
Q2 under 63.5 72.5% 73.0% 77.5% 0.94× 1.37
Q2 over 53.5 71.4% 73.0% 65.8% 1.11× 1.37
Q2 under 64.5 73.8% 72.0% 80.9% 0.89× 1.39
Q2 over 54.5 70.3% 72.0% 61.1% 1.18× 1.39
Q2 under 62.5 65.6% 67.4% 74.4% 0.91× 1.49
Q2 under 61.5 64.2% 62.0% 70.4% 0.88× 1.61
Q2 over 55.5 63.1% 62.0% 56.3% 1.10× 1.61
Q2 over 56.5 61.8% 60.7% 51.7% 1.17× 1.65
Q2 under 60.5 56.7% 58.2% 65.7% 0.88× 1.72
Q2 over 58.5 52.6% 52.7% 42.7% 1.23× 1.90
Q2 under 59.5 52.0% 52.7% 61.9% 0.85× 1.90
Q2 over 57.5 54.0% 52.2% 47.3% 1.10× 1.92
Q2 under 57.5 46.0% 47.8% 52.7% 0.91× 2.09
Q2 over 59.5 48.0% 47.3% 38.1% 1.24× 2.11
Q2 under 58.5 47.4% 47.3% 57.3% 0.83× 2.11
Q2 over 60.5 43.3% 41.8% 34.3% 1.22× 2.39
Q2 under 56.5 38.2% 39.3% 48.3% 0.81× 2.55
Q2 under 55.5 36.9% 38.0% 43.7% 0.87× 2.63
Q2 over 61.5 35.8% 38.0% 29.6% 1.28× 2.63
Q2 over 62.5 34.4% 32.6% 25.6% 1.27× 3.06
Q2 under 54.5 29.7% 28.0% 38.9% 0.72× 3.57
Q2 over 64.5 26.3% 28.0% 19.1% 1.46× 3.57
Q2 under 53.5 28.6% 27.0% 34.2% 0.79× 3.71
Q2 over 63.5 27.5% 27.0% 22.5% 1.20× 3.71
Q2 under 51.5 18.8% 17.0% 25.8% 0.66× 5.88
Q2 over 67.5 16.2% 17.0% 11.3% 1.50× 5.89
Q2 under 50.5 18.0% 16.9% 21.9% 0.77× 5.93
Q2 over 66.5 17.2% 16.9% 13.5% 1.25× 5.93
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to win Q3 51.9% 52.7% 44.3% 1.19× 1.90
Indiana Pacers to win Q3 43.4% 42.3% 50.9% 0.83× 2.37
Q3 tied 4.7% 4.3% 4.9% 0.88× 23.43
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 over 51.5 83.0% 82.3% 76.1% 1.08× 1.22
Q3 under 67.5 82.8% 82.3% 87.0% 0.95× 1.22
Q3 over 54.5 72.5% 71.8% 63.9% 1.12× 1.39
Q3 under 64.5 72.2% 71.8% 79.2% 0.91× 1.39
Q3 over 56.5 64.1% 62.0% 55.0% 1.13× 1.61
Q3 under 62.5 63.8% 62.0% 71.9% 0.86× 1.61
Q3 over 58.5 54.9% 52.3% 45.2% 1.16× 1.91
Q3 under 60.5 54.6% 52.3% 63.5% 0.82× 1.91
Q3 over 59.5 50.2% 52.3% 41.0% 1.28× 1.91
Q3 under 59.5 49.8% 47.7% 59.0% 0.81× 2.10
Q3 under 58.5 45.1% 47.7% 54.8% 0.87× 2.10
Q3 over 60.5 45.4% 47.7% 36.5% 1.31× 2.10
Q3 over 62.5 36.2% 38.0% 28.1% 1.35× 2.63
Q3 under 56.5 35.9% 38.0% 45.0% 0.85× 2.63
Q3 over 64.5 27.8% 28.2% 20.8% 1.35× 3.55
Q3 under 54.5 27.5% 28.2% 36.1% 0.78× 3.55
Q3 over 67.5 17.2% 17.7% 13.0% 1.36× 5.66
Q3 under 51.5 17.0% 17.7% 23.9% 0.74× 5.66
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to win Q4 51.7% 51.4% 46.4% 1.11× 1.95
Indiana Pacers to win Q4 43.4% 43.1% 48.3% 0.89× 2.32
Q4 tied 4.9% 5.2% 5.3% 0.98× 19.28
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 over 48.5 82.8% 82.0% 75.5% 1.09× 1.22
Q4 under 64.5 81.6% 82.0% 86.3% 0.95× 1.22
Q4 over 51.5 72.5% 71.5% 64.7% 1.11× 1.40
Q4 under 61.5 71.0% 71.5% 77.5% 0.92× 1.40
Q4 over 53.5 64.4% 61.4% 55.7% 1.10× 1.63
Q4 under 59.5 62.7% 61.4% 70.2% 0.87× 1.63
Q4 over 55.5 55.5% 58.4% 47.1% 1.24× 1.71
Q4 under 57.5 53.7% 52.5% 61.9% 0.85× 1.91
Q4 over 56.5 50.9% 52.5% 42.8% 1.23× 1.91
Q4 under 56.5 49.1% 47.5% 57.2% 0.83× 2.11
Q4 over 57.5 46.3% 47.5% 38.1% 1.25× 2.11
Q4 under 55.5 44.5% 41.6% 52.9% 0.79× 2.40
Q4 over 59.5 37.3% 38.6% 29.8% 1.30× 2.59
Q4 under 53.5 35.6% 38.6% 44.3% 0.87× 2.59
Q4 over 61.5 29.0% 28.5% 22.5% 1.27× 3.51
Q4 under 51.5 27.5% 28.5% 35.3% 0.81× 3.51
Q4 over 64.5 18.4% 18.0% 13.7% 1.31× 5.56
Q4 under 48.5 17.2% 18.0% 24.5% 0.73× 5.56
Team total 58
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers under 129.5 81.2% 80.7% 90.0% 0.90× 1.24
Indiana Pacers over 105.5 80.3% 80.7% 77.4% 1.04× 1.24
Philadelphia 76ers over 106.5 79.3% 78.3% 68.9% 1.14× 1.28
Indiana Pacers under 125.5 79.9% 75.1% 79.1% 0.95× 1.33
Philadelphia 76ers over 109.5 79.4% 75.1% 60.9% 1.23× 1.33
Philadelphia 76ers under 123.5 72.3% 71.8% 79.5% 0.90× 1.39
Philadelphia 76ers under 126.5 73.6% 70.7% 85.3% 0.83× 1.41
Indiana Pacers over 108.5 72.5% 70.7% 69.9% 1.01× 1.41
Indiana Pacers under 122.5 72.1% 70.7% 71.8% 0.98× 1.41
Philadelphia 76ers over 112.5 71.3% 70.7% 51.5% 1.37× 1.41
Philadelphia 76ers under 121.5 66.5% 66.6% 74.7% 0.89× 1.50
Philadelphia 76ers over 111.5 65.6% 66.6% 54.6% 1.22× 1.50
Philadelphia 76ers under 124.5 67.7% 66.4% 81.4% 0.82× 1.51
Indiana Pacers over 110.5 66.5% 66.4% 64.1% 1.04× 1.51
Indiana Pacers under 120.5 66.2% 66.4% 66.3% 1.00× 1.51
Philadelphia 76ers over 114.5 65.3% 66.4% 44.5% 1.49× 1.51
Philadelphia 76ers under 122.5 61.4% 61.2% 77.4% 0.79× 1.63
Indiana Pacers over 112.5 60.2% 61.2% 57.7% 1.06× 1.63
Philadelphia 76ers over 113.5 59.4% 57.9% 48.0% 1.21× 1.73
Indiana Pacers under 118.5 59.8% 57.1% 60.3% 0.95× 1.75
Philadelphia 76ers over 116.5 58.8% 57.1% 38.5% 1.48× 1.75
Indiana Pacers over 114.5 53.6% 52.3% 51.4% 1.02× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers under 120.5 54.7% 52.3% 72.7% 0.72× 1.91
Indiana Pacers under 116.5 53.2% 52.3% 54.7% 0.95× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers under 119.5 51.3% 52.3% 70.3% 0.74× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers over 118.5 52.1% 52.3% 32.6% 1.60× 1.91
Indiana Pacers over 115.5 50.2% 52.3% 48.4% 1.08× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers under 117.5 53.8% 52.2% 64.4% 0.81× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers over 115.5 52.8% 52.2% 41.4% 1.26× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers under 115.5 47.2% 47.8% 58.6% 0.82× 2.09
Philadelphia 76ers over 117.5 46.2% 47.8% 35.6% 1.34× 2.09
Indiana Pacers under 115.5 49.8% 47.7% 51.6% 0.93× 2.09
Indiana Pacers over 116.5 46.8% 47.7% 45.3% 1.05× 2.09
Philadelphia 76ers over 119.5 48.7% 47.7% 29.7% 1.61× 2.09
Philadelphia 76ers under 118.5 47.9% 47.7% 67.4% 0.71× 2.09
Indiana Pacers under 114.5 46.4% 47.7% 48.6% 0.98× 2.09
Philadelphia 76ers over 120.5 45.3% 47.7% 27.3% 1.75× 2.09
Philadelphia 76ers under 116.5 41.2% 42.9% 61.5% 0.70× 2.33
Indiana Pacers over 118.5 40.2% 42.9% 39.7% 1.08× 2.33
Philadelphia 76ers under 113.5 40.6% 42.1% 52.0% 0.81× 2.38
Indiana Pacers under 112.5 39.8% 38.8% 42.3% 0.92× 2.58
Philadelphia 76ers over 122.5 38.6% 38.8% 22.6% 1.71× 2.58
Philadelphia 76ers under 114.5 34.7% 33.6% 55.5% 0.61× 2.98
Indiana Pacers under 110.5 33.5% 33.6% 35.9% 0.94× 2.98
Indiana Pacers over 120.5 33.8% 33.6% 33.7% 1.00× 2.98
Philadelphia 76ers over 124.5 32.3% 33.6% 18.6% 1.81× 2.98
Philadelphia 76ers under 111.5 34.4% 33.4% 45.4% 0.74× 2.99
Philadelphia 76ers over 121.5 33.5% 33.4% 25.3% 1.32× 2.99
Philadelphia 76ers under 112.5 28.7% 29.3% 48.5% 0.60× 3.42
Indiana Pacers under 108.5 27.5% 29.3% 30.1% 0.97× 3.42
Indiana Pacers over 122.5 27.9% 29.3% 28.2% 1.04× 3.42
Philadelphia 76ers over 126.5 26.4% 29.3% 14.7% 1.99× 3.42
Philadelphia 76ers over 123.5 27.7% 28.2% 20.5% 1.37× 3.55
Indiana Pacers over 125.5 20.1% 24.9% 20.9% 1.19× 4.02
Philadelphia 76ers under 109.5 20.7% 24.9% 39.1% 0.64× 4.02
Philadelphia 76ers under 106.5 20.7% 21.7% 31.1% 0.70× 4.60
Indiana Pacers under 105.5 19.7% 19.3% 22.6% 0.85× 5.18
Philadelphia 76ers over 129.5 18.8% 19.3% 10.0% 1.94× 5.18
Total points 46
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 252.5 points 86.3% 85.5% 88.1% 0.97× 1.17
Over 214.5 points 86.4% 85.0% 75.1% 1.13× 1.18
Under 254.5 points 85.9% 85.0% 89.9% 0.95× 1.18
Over 212.5 points 85.0% 81.9% 77.8% 1.05× 1.22
Under 247.5 points 79.7% 78.1% 83.3% 0.94× 1.28
Over 217.5 points 77.8% 78.1% 69.6% 1.12× 1.28
Over 219.5 points 79.5% 75.6% 66.1% 1.14× 1.32
Under 249.5 points 79.0% 75.6% 85.3% 0.89× 1.32
Under 242.5 points 71.3% 71.0% 76.8% 0.92× 1.41
Over 224.5 points 71.0% 70.8% 56.5% 1.25× 1.41
Under 244.5 points 70.3% 70.8% 79.5% 0.89× 1.41
Over 222.5 points 69.2% 66.6% 60.4% 1.10× 1.50
Over 227.5 points 65.1% 65.9% 50.6% 1.30× 1.52
Over 225.5 points 63.3% 61.8% 54.7% 1.13× 1.62
Under 241.5 points 64.5% 61.5% 75.5% 0.81× 1.63
Over 229.5 points 61.0% 61.5% 46.7% 1.32× 1.63
Under 239.5 points 60.4% 61.5% 72.5% 0.85× 1.63
Over 231.5 points 56.8% 56.5% 42.6% 1.33× 1.77
Under 237.5 points 56.1% 56.5% 69.3% 0.82× 1.77
Over 233.5 points 52.5% 52.3% 38.6% 1.35× 1.91
Under 235.5 points 51.8% 52.3% 65.3% 0.80× 1.91
Over 234.5 points 50.4% 52.3% 36.7% 1.43× 1.91
Under 232.5 points 51.2% 52.2% 59.4% 0.88× 1.92
Over 232.5 points 48.8% 47.8% 40.6% 1.18× 2.09
Under 234.5 points 49.6% 47.7% 63.3% 0.75× 2.10
Under 233.5 points 47.5% 47.7% 61.4% 0.78× 2.10
Over 235.5 points 48.2% 47.7% 34.7% 1.37× 2.10
Under 231.5 points 43.2% 43.5% 57.4% 0.76× 2.30
Over 237.5 points 43.9% 43.5% 30.7% 1.41× 2.30
Over 239.5 points 39.6% 38.5% 27.5% 1.40× 2.60
Under 229.5 points 39.0% 38.5% 53.3% 0.72× 2.60
Over 241.5 points 35.5% 38.5% 24.5% 1.57× 2.60
Under 225.5 points 36.7% 38.3% 45.3% 0.84× 2.61
Under 227.5 points 34.9% 34.1% 49.4% 0.69× 2.93
Under 222.5 points 30.8% 33.4% 39.6% 0.84× 3.00
Over 244.5 points 29.7% 29.2% 20.5% 1.42× 3.43
Under 224.5 points 29.0% 29.2% 43.5% 0.67× 3.43
Over 242.5 points 28.7% 29.0% 23.2% 1.25× 3.45
Over 249.5 points 21.0% 24.4% 14.7% 1.66× 4.10
Under 219.5 points 20.5% 24.4% 33.9% 0.72× 4.10
Under 217.5 points 22.2% 21.9% 30.4% 0.72× 4.57
Over 247.5 points 20.3% 21.9% 16.7% 1.31× 4.57
Under 212.5 points 15.0% 18.1% 22.2% 0.82× 5.53
Over 254.5 points 14.1% 15.0% 10.1% 1.49× 6.68
Under 214.5 points 13.6% 15.0% 24.9% 0.60× 6.68
Over 252.5 points 13.7% 14.5% 11.9% 1.22× 6.88
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to win both halves 27.5% 27.2% 17.8% 1.52× 3.68
Indiana Pacers to win both halves 15.6% 18.9% 25.2% 0.75× 5.30
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers by 1-5 14.1% 12.3% 12.3% 1.01× 8.11
Philadelphia 76ers by 6-10 13.4% 12.3% 12.3% 1.00× 8.11
Indiana Pacers by 1-5 12.8% 12.3% 12.8% 0.96× 8.11
Philadelphia 76ers by 11-15 11.3% 12.3% 8.0% 1.54× 8.11
Indiana Pacers by 6-10 10.3% 12.3% 13.9% 0.88× 8.11
Philadelphia 76ers by 16-20 8.5% 7.5% 4.9% 1.53× 13.40
Indiana Pacers by 11-15 7.4% 7.5% 10.8% 0.69× 13.40
Philadelphia 76ers by 21-25 5.7% 7.5% 3.0% 2.45× 13.40
Philadelphia 76ers by 26+ 6.6% 7.5% 3.9% 1.93× 13.40
Indiana Pacers by 16-20 4.8% 2.0% 7.3% 0.28× 49.29
Indiana Pacers by 21-25 2.7% 2.0% 4.7% 0.43× 49.30
Indiana Pacers by 26+ 2.4% 2.0% 6.2% 0.33× 49.31
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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