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Kansas State Wildcats v Creighton Bluejays — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 10 November 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Kansas State Wildcats win
48.6%
Draw
0.0%
Creighton Bluejays win
51.4%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 80.16–80.52 80-81 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kansas State Wildcats to score 100+ 2.4% 0.4% 3.4% 0.10× 282.88
Kansas State Wildcats to score 110+ 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.33
Kansas State Wildcats to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.36
Kansas State Wildcats to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
Creighton Bluejays to score 100+ 2.4% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 282.89
Creighton Bluejays to score 110+ 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.33
Creighton Bluejays to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
Creighton Bluejays to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.30
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Creighton Bluejays to win H1 48.5% 47.3% 38.2% 1.24× 2.11
Creighton Bluejays to win H1 48.5% 47.3% 38.2% 1.24× 2.11
Kansas State Wildcats to win H1 46.9% 47.3% 57.9% 0.82× 2.11
Kansas State Wildcats to win H1 46.9% 47.3% 57.9% 0.82× 2.11
H1 tied 4.5% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.85
H1 tied 4.6% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.85
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 88.5 88.0% 87.7% 95.6% 0.92× 1.14
H1 over 64.5 86.0% 87.7% 65.3% 1.34× 1.14
H1 under 84.5 79.6% 77.4% 91.7% 0.84× 1.29
H1 under 84.5 78.8% 77.4% 91.7% 0.84× 1.29
H1 over 68.5 75.9% 77.4% 50.7% 1.53× 1.29
H1 over 68.5 76.6% 77.4% 50.7% 1.53× 1.29
H1 under 81.5 70.4% 73.5% 87.2% 0.84× 1.36
H1 under 81.5 69.8% 67.4% 87.2% 0.77× 1.48
H1 over 71.5 66.3% 67.4% 40.0% 1.69× 1.48
H1 over 71.5 66.8% 67.4% 40.0% 1.69× 1.48
H1 under 79.5 62.9% 62.7% 83.1% 0.75× 1.59
H1 under 79.5 63.4% 62.7% 83.1% 0.75× 1.59
H1 over 73.5 59.5% 58.2% 33.4% 1.74× 1.72
H1 over 73.5 59.2% 58.2% 33.4% 1.74× 1.72
H1 under 77.5 55.7% 58.2% 78.3% 0.74× 1.72
H1 under 77.5 55.8% 58.2% 78.3% 0.74× 1.72
H1 over 75.5 51.8% 52.6% 27.2% 1.93× 1.90
H1 under 76.5 51.9% 52.6% 75.5% 0.70× 1.90
H1 over 75.5 51.9% 52.6% 27.2% 1.93× 1.90
H1 under 76.5 52.0% 52.6% 75.5% 0.70× 1.90
H1 under 75.5 48.2% 47.4% 72.8% 0.65× 2.11
H1 over 76.5 48.1% 47.4% 24.5% 1.94× 2.11
H1 under 75.5 48.1% 47.4% 72.8% 0.65× 2.11
H1 over 76.5 48.0% 47.4% 24.5% 1.94× 2.11
H1 over 77.5 44.3% 41.8% 21.7% 1.93× 2.39
H1 over 77.5 44.2% 41.8% 21.7% 1.93× 2.39
H1 under 73.5 40.8% 41.8% 66.6% 0.63× 2.39
H1 under 73.5 40.5% 41.8% 66.6% 0.63× 2.39
H1 over 79.5 37.1% 37.3% 16.9% 2.21× 2.68
H1 over 79.5 36.6% 37.3% 16.9% 2.21× 2.68
H1 under 71.5 33.7% 32.6% 60.0% 0.54× 3.07
H1 under 71.5 33.2% 32.6% 60.0% 0.54× 3.07
H1 over 81.5 30.2% 32.6% 12.8% 2.55× 3.07
H1 over 81.5 29.6% 26.5% 12.8% 2.08× 3.77
H1 under 68.5 24.1% 22.6% 49.3% 0.46× 4.43
H1 under 68.5 23.4% 22.6% 49.3% 0.46× 4.43
H1 over 84.5 21.2% 22.6% 8.3% 2.72× 4.43
H1 over 84.5 20.4% 22.6% 8.3% 2.72× 4.43
H1 under 64.5 14.0% 12.3% 34.8% 0.35× 8.13
H1 over 88.5 12.0% 12.3% 4.4% 2.81× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Creighton Bluejays to win H2 48.7% 47.1% 38.5% 1.22× 2.12
Creighton Bluejays to win H2 48.7% 47.1% 38.9% 1.21× 2.12
Kansas State Wildcats to win H2 47.0% 47.1% 57.5% 0.82× 2.12
Kansas State Wildcats to win H2 47.0% 47.1% 56.9% 0.83× 2.12
H2 tied 4.4% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.35
H2 tied 4.4% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.35
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 over 72.5 86.0% 85.2% 65.9% 1.29× 1.17
H2 under 96.5 85.2% 85.2% 91.4% 0.93× 1.17
H2 over 76.5 76.6% 75.8% 53.4% 1.42× 1.32
H2 over 76.5 77.2% 75.8% 50.3% 1.51× 1.32
H2 under 92.5 76.2% 75.8% 90.1% 0.84× 1.32
H2 under 92.5 75.6% 75.8% 86.9% 0.87× 1.32
H2 over 79.5 68.2% 66.4% 40.3% 1.65× 1.51
H2 over 79.5 67.7% 66.4% 43.8% 1.51× 1.51
H2 under 89.5 67.0% 66.4% 85.1% 0.78× 1.51
H2 under 89.5 66.5% 66.4% 81.8% 0.81× 1.51
H2 over 81.5 61.4% 61.6% 34.2% 1.80× 1.62
H2 over 81.5 61.1% 61.6% 37.8% 1.63× 1.62
H2 under 87.5 60.1% 61.6% 81.2% 0.76× 1.62
H2 under 87.5 59.8% 57.3% 77.7% 0.74× 1.74
H2 over 83.5 54.3% 52.4% 28.4% 1.84× 1.91
H2 over 83.5 54.2% 52.4% 32.0% 1.64× 1.91
H2 under 85.5 53.0% 52.4% 76.8% 0.68× 1.91
H2 under 85.5 52.9% 52.4% 73.3% 0.71× 1.91
H2 over 84.5 50.7% 52.4% 25.9% 2.03× 1.91
H2 over 84.5 50.7% 52.4% 29.5% 1.78× 1.91
H2 under 84.5 49.3% 47.6% 74.1% 0.64× 2.10
H2 under 84.5 49.3% 47.6% 70.5% 0.68× 2.10
H2 over 85.5 47.0% 47.6% 23.2% 2.06× 2.10
H2 over 85.5 47.1% 47.6% 26.7% 1.78× 2.10
H2 under 83.5 45.7% 47.6% 71.6% 0.67× 2.10
H2 under 83.5 45.8% 47.6% 68.0% 0.70× 2.10
H2 over 87.5 40.2% 42.7% 22.3% 1.91× 2.35
H2 over 87.5 39.9% 38.4% 18.8% 2.04× 2.61
H2 under 81.5 38.6% 38.4% 65.8% 0.58× 2.61
H2 under 81.5 38.9% 38.4% 62.2% 0.62× 2.61
H2 over 89.5 33.0% 33.6% 14.9% 2.26× 2.97
H2 over 89.5 33.5% 33.6% 18.2% 1.84× 2.97
H2 under 79.5 31.8% 33.6% 59.8% 0.56× 2.97
H2 under 79.5 32.3% 33.6% 56.2% 0.60× 2.97
H2 over 92.5 23.8% 24.2% 9.9% 2.44× 4.13
H2 over 92.5 24.4% 24.2% 13.1% 1.85× 4.13
H2 under 76.5 22.8% 24.2% 49.7% 0.49× 4.13
H2 under 76.5 23.4% 24.2% 46.6% 0.52× 4.13
H2 over 96.5 14.8% 14.8% 8.6% 1.72× 6.76
H2 under 72.5 14.0% 14.8% 34.1% 0.43× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Creighton Bluejays leading at half time 48.5% 47.2% 38.2% 1.24× 2.12
Kansas State Wildcats leading at half time 46.9% 47.2% 57.9% 0.82× 2.12
Level at half time 4.5% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.40
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Creighton Bluejays +18.5 95.9% 97.4% 83.9% 1.16× 1.03
Creighton Bluejays +20.5 97.3% 97.4% 86.5% 1.13× 1.03
Kansas State Wildcats +20.5 96.9% 97.4% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
Kansas State Wildcats +18.5 95.3% 97.4% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
Creighton Bluejays +16.5 94.0% 91.1% 80.7% 1.13× 1.10
Kansas State Wildcats +16.5 93.1% 91.1% 94.0% 0.97× 1.10
Creighton Bluejays +14.5 91.4% 91.1% 77.2% 1.18× 1.10
Kansas State Wildcats +14.5 90.3% 91.1% 92.2% 0.99× 1.10
Creighton Bluejays +12.5 88.0% 85.9% 72.4% 1.19× 1.16
Kansas State Wildcats +12.5 86.6% 85.9% 89.9% 0.96× 1.16
Creighton Bluejays +10.5 83.8% 81.1% 67.4% 1.20× 1.23
Kansas State Wildcats +10.5 82.1% 81.1% 87.2% 0.93× 1.23
Creighton Bluejays +9.5 81.4% 81.1% 64.5% 1.26× 1.23
Creighton Bluejays +8.5 78.8% 76.5% 61.5% 1.24× 1.31
Kansas State Wildcats +9.5 79.5% 76.5% 85.3% 0.90× 1.31
Creighton Bluejays +7.5 75.9% 76.5% 58.7% 1.30× 1.31
Kansas State Wildcats +8.5 76.7% 76.5% 83.3% 0.92× 1.31
Kansas State Wildcats +7.5 73.7% 71.6% 81.0% 0.88× 1.40
Creighton Bluejays +6.5 72.9% 71.6% 55.7% 1.29× 1.40
Kansas State Wildcats +6.5 70.6% 71.6% 78.8% 0.91× 1.40
Creighton Bluejays +5.5 69.6% 66.7% 53.0% 1.26× 1.50
Creighton Bluejays +4.5 66.2% 66.7% 49.3% 1.35× 1.50
Kansas State Wildcats +5.5 67.2% 66.7% 76.4% 0.87× 1.50
Creighton Bluejays +3.5 62.7% 61.9% 45.9% 1.35× 1.62
Kansas State Wildcats +4.5 63.7% 61.9% 73.7% 0.84× 1.62
Kansas State Wildcats +3.5 60.0% 61.9% 70.8% 0.88× 1.62
Creighton Bluejays +2.5 59.0% 57.1% 42.3% 1.35× 1.75
Kansas State Wildcats +2.5 56.3% 57.1% 68.0% 0.84× 1.75
Creighton Bluejays +1.5 55.2% 57.1% 39.2% 1.46× 1.75
Kansas State Wildcats +1.5 52.5% 52.4% 65.4% 0.80× 1.91
Creighton Bluejays −1.5 47.5% 47.6% 34.6% 1.38× 2.10
Kansas State Wildcats −1.5 44.8% 42.9% 60.8% 0.71× 2.33
Creighton Bluejays −2.5 43.7% 42.9% 32.0% 1.34× 2.33
Kansas State Wildcats −2.5 41.0% 42.9% 57.7% 0.74× 2.33
Creighton Bluejays −3.5 40.0% 38.1% 29.3% 1.30× 2.63
Kansas State Wildcats −3.5 37.3% 38.1% 54.1% 0.70× 2.63
Creighton Bluejays −4.5 36.3% 38.1% 26.3% 1.45× 2.63
Kansas State Wildcats −4.5 33.8% 33.3% 50.7% 0.66× 3.01
Creighton Bluejays −5.5 32.8% 33.3% 23.6% 1.41× 3.01
Kansas State Wildcats −5.5 30.4% 33.3% 47.0% 0.71× 3.01
Creighton Bluejays −6.5 29.4% 28.4% 21.2% 1.34× 3.53
Kansas State Wildcats −6.5 27.1% 28.4% 44.3% 0.64× 3.53
Creighton Bluejays −7.5 26.3% 28.4% 19.0% 1.49× 3.53
Kansas State Wildcats −7.5 24.1% 23.5% 41.3% 0.57× 4.25
Creighton Bluejays −8.5 23.3% 23.5% 16.7% 1.41× 4.25
Kansas State Wildcats −8.5 21.2% 23.5% 38.5% 0.61× 4.25
Creighton Bluejays −9.5 20.5% 23.5% 14.7% 1.61× 4.25
Kansas State Wildcats −9.5 18.6% 18.9% 35.5% 0.53× 5.29
Creighton Bluejays −10.5 17.9% 18.9% 12.8% 1.47× 5.29
Kansas State Wildcats −10.5 16.2% 18.9% 32.6% 0.58× 5.30
Creighton Bluejays −12.5 13.4% 14.1% 10.1% 1.40× 7.09
Kansas State Wildcats −12.5 12.0% 14.1% 27.6% 0.51× 7.09
Kansas State Wildcats −14.5 8.6% 8.9% 22.8% 0.39× 11.25
Creighton Bluejays −14.5 9.7% 8.9% 7.8% 1.14× 11.25
Kansas State Wildcats −16.5 6.0% 8.9% 19.3% 0.46× 11.25
Creighton Bluejays −16.5 6.9% 8.9% 6.0% 1.49× 11.25
Creighton Bluejays −18.5 4.7% 2.6% 4.6% 0.57× 38.72
Kansas State Wildcats −18.5 4.1% 2.6% 16.1% 0.16× 38.72
Kansas State Wildcats −20.5 2.7% 2.6% 13.5% 0.19× 38.73
Creighton Bluejays −20.5 3.1% 2.6% 3.5% 0.75× 38.73
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 79.6% 71.6% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
H2 highest scoring 81.2% 71.5% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
H1 highest scoring 18.8% 28.5% 29.6% 0.96× 3.51
1st half highest scoring 20.4% 28.4% 27.5% 1.03× 3.53
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Creighton Bluejays at HT / Creighton Bluejays at FT 35.2% 37.7% 25.8% 1.46× 2.65
Kansas State Wildcats at HT / Kansas State Wildcats at FT 33.1% 33.2% 48.6% 0.68× 3.01
Kansas State Wildcats at HT / Creighton Bluejays at FT 13.9% 12.2% 9.3% 1.31× 8.17
Creighton Bluejays at HT / Kansas State Wildcats at FT 13.3% 12.2% 12.4% 0.99× 8.17
Level at HT / Kansas State Wildcats at FT 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.75
Level at HT / Creighton Bluejays at FT 2.3% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.75
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Creighton Bluejays to win 51.4% 51.0% 36.8% 1.39× 1.96
Kansas State Wildcats to win 48.6% 49.0% 63.2% 0.78× 2.04
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.9% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
Kansas State Wildcats even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Creighton Bluejays even 50.0% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Kansas State Wildcats odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Creighton Bluejays odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.1% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 92.0% 94.0% 94.2% 1.00× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 8.0% 6.0% 5.8% 1.04× 16.64
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kansas State Wildcats under 90.5 85.4% 83.9% 88.1% 0.95× 1.19
Creighton Bluejays over 70.5 85.2% 83.9% 51.4% 1.63× 1.19
Creighton Bluejays under 90.5 85.1% 83.9% 94.5% 0.89× 1.19
Kansas State Wildcats over 70.5 83.7% 80.7% 66.7% 1.21× 1.24
Kansas State Wildcats under 87.5 77.3% 75.1% 82.8% 0.91× 1.33
Creighton Bluejays over 73.5 76.8% 75.1% 41.7% 1.80× 1.33
Creighton Bluejays under 87.5 76.6% 75.1% 91.4% 0.82× 1.33
Kansas State Wildcats over 73.5 75.1% 75.1% 57.4% 1.31× 1.33
Kansas State Wildcats under 85.5 70.7% 70.7% 78.6% 0.90× 1.41
Creighton Bluejays over 75.5 70.0% 66.4% 35.3% 1.88× 1.51
Creighton Bluejays under 85.5 69.8% 66.4% 88.8% 0.75× 1.51
Kansas State Wildcats over 75.5 68.2% 66.4% 51.0% 1.30× 1.51
Kansas State Wildcats under 83.5 63.4% 61.2% 73.5% 0.83× 1.63
Creighton Bluejays over 77.5 62.4% 61.2% 29.1% 2.10× 1.63
Creighton Bluejays under 83.5 62.2% 61.2% 85.3% 0.72× 1.63
Kansas State Wildcats over 77.5 60.6% 61.2% 44.6% 1.37× 1.63
Kansas State Wildcats under 81.5 55.5% 57.1% 67.9% 0.84× 1.75
Creighton Bluejays over 79.5 54.2% 52.3% 23.7% 2.20× 1.91
Creighton Bluejays under 81.5 54.0% 52.3% 81.2% 0.64× 1.91
Kansas State Wildcats over 79.5 52.6% 52.3% 38.4% 1.36× 1.91
Kansas State Wildcats under 80.5 51.4% 52.3% 64.9% 0.81× 1.91
Creighton Bluejays over 80.5 50.1% 52.3% 21.2% 2.46× 1.91
Creighton Bluejays under 80.5 49.9% 47.7% 78.8% 0.61× 2.09
Kansas State Wildcats under 79.5 47.4% 47.7% 61.6% 0.78× 2.09
Kansas State Wildcats over 80.5 48.6% 47.7% 35.1% 1.36× 2.09
Creighton Bluejays under 79.5 45.8% 47.7% 76.3% 0.63× 2.09
Creighton Bluejays over 81.5 46.0% 47.7% 18.8% 2.54× 2.09
Kansas State Wildcats over 81.5 44.5% 42.9% 32.1% 1.34× 2.33
Kansas State Wildcats under 77.5 39.4% 38.8% 55.4% 0.70× 2.58
Kansas State Wildcats over 83.5 36.7% 38.8% 26.5% 1.47× 2.58
Creighton Bluejays under 77.5 37.6% 38.8% 70.9% 0.55× 2.58
Creighton Bluejays over 83.5 37.8% 38.8% 14.7% 2.65× 2.58
Kansas State Wildcats under 75.5 31.8% 33.6% 49.0% 0.69× 2.98
Creighton Bluejays under 75.5 30.0% 33.6% 64.7% 0.52× 2.98
Creighton Bluejays over 85.5 30.2% 33.6% 11.2% 3.01× 2.98
Kansas State Wildcats over 85.5 29.3% 29.3% 21.4% 1.37× 3.42
Kansas State Wildcats under 73.5 24.9% 24.9% 42.6% 0.58× 4.02
Kansas State Wildcats over 87.5 22.7% 24.9% 17.2% 1.45× 4.02
Creighton Bluejays under 73.5 23.2% 24.9% 58.3% 0.43× 4.02
Creighton Bluejays over 87.5 23.4% 24.9% 8.6% 2.89× 4.02
Kansas State Wildcats under 70.5 16.3% 19.3% 33.3% 0.58× 5.18
Kansas State Wildcats over 90.5 14.6% 16.1% 11.9% 1.35× 6.21
Creighton Bluejays under 70.5 14.8% 16.1% 48.7% 0.33× 6.21
Creighton Bluejays over 90.5 14.9% 16.1% 5.5% 2.94× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 140.5 points 89.6% 85.0% 62.8% 1.35× 1.18
Under 180.5 points 89.2% 85.0% 95.4% 0.89× 1.18
Over 145.5 points 82.8% 80.6% 51.8% 1.55× 1.24
Under 175.5 points 82.3% 80.6% 92.5% 0.87× 1.24
Over 150.5 points 73.8% 70.8% 41.6% 1.70× 1.41
Under 170.5 points 73.0% 70.8% 88.6% 0.80× 1.41
Over 153.5 points 67.2% 65.9% 35.4% 1.86× 1.52
Under 167.5 points 66.5% 65.9% 85.6% 0.77× 1.52
Over 155.5 points 62.6% 61.5% 31.9% 1.92× 1.63
Under 165.5 points 61.9% 61.5% 83.4% 0.74× 1.63
Over 157.5 points 57.8% 56.5% 28.4% 1.99× 1.77
Under 163.5 points 57.0% 56.5% 80.9% 0.70× 1.77
Over 159.5 points 52.9% 52.3% 25.0% 2.09× 1.91
Under 161.5 points 52.1% 52.3% 77.9% 0.67× 1.91
Over 160.5 points 50.5% 52.3% 23.6% 2.21× 1.91
Under 160.5 points 49.5% 47.7% 76.4% 0.62× 2.10
Under 159.5 points 47.1% 47.7% 75.0% 0.64× 2.10
Over 161.5 points 47.9% 47.7% 22.1% 2.16× 2.10
Over 163.5 points 43.0% 43.5% 19.1% 2.28× 2.30
Under 157.5 points 42.2% 43.5% 71.6% 0.61× 2.30
Over 165.5 points 38.1% 38.5% 16.6% 2.32× 2.60
Under 155.5 points 37.4% 38.5% 68.1% 0.57× 2.60
Under 153.5 points 32.8% 34.1% 64.6% 0.53× 2.93
Over 167.5 points 33.5% 34.1% 14.4% 2.37× 2.93
Over 170.5 points 27.0% 29.2% 11.4% 2.57× 3.43
Under 150.5 points 26.2% 29.2% 58.4% 0.50× 3.43
Under 145.5 points 17.2% 19.4% 48.2% 0.40× 5.15
Over 175.5 points 17.7% 19.4% 7.5% 2.59× 5.15
Under 140.5 points 10.4% 15.0% 37.2% 0.40× 6.69
Over 180.5 points 10.8% 15.0% 4.6% 3.26× 6.69
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Creighton Bluejays to win both halves 20.0% 18.9% 14.5% 1.30× 5.29
Kansas State Wildcats to win both halves 18.4% 18.9% 33.2% 0.57× 5.30
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kansas State Wildcats by 1-5 18.2% 16.8% 16.2% 1.03× 5.97
Creighton Bluejays by 1-5 18.6% 16.8% 13.2% 1.27× 5.97
Creighton Bluejays by 6-10 14.9% 12.3% 10.8% 1.14× 8.11
Kansas State Wildcats by 6-10 14.2% 12.3% 14.4% 0.86× 8.11
Creighton Bluejays by 11-15 9.7% 7.5% 6.1% 1.23× 13.40
Kansas State Wildcats by 11-15 8.9% 7.5% 11.6% 0.65× 13.40
Creighton Bluejays by 16-20 5.1% 7.5% 3.3% 2.24× 13.41
Kansas State Wildcats by 16-20 4.5% 2.0% 7.6% 0.27× 49.29
Kansas State Wildcats by 21-25 1.9% 2.0% 5.6% 0.36× 49.31
Creighton Bluejays by 21-25 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 49.31
Kansas State Wildcats by 26+ 0.8% 2.0% 7.9% 0.26× 49.32
Creighton Bluejays by 26+ 1.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.32
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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