Miami Heat v New Orleans Pelicans — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 8 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated 3 Sep 2026, 23:45

Miami Heat

19:30

New Orleans Pelicans

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Miami Heat win

69.1%

Draw

0.0%

New Orleans Pelicans win

30.9%

69031

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	69031	126.33–119.31	126-119 0%	50%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to score 100+	98.9%	94.9%	89.3%	1.06×	1.05
New Orleans Pelicans to score 100+	95.4%	94.9%	85.9%	1.10×	1.05
Both sides to score 100+	94.4%	90.3%	77.5%	1.17×	1.11
Miami Heat to score 110+	92.4%	90.3%	67.0%	1.35×	1.11
New Orleans Pelicans to score 110+	79.7%	77.0%	60.9%	1.26×	1.30
Miami Heat to score 120+	72.1%	72.3%	36.5%	1.98×	1.38
New Orleans Pelicans to score 120+	49.0%	47.0%	29.7%	1.59×	2.13
Miami Heat to score 130+	39.8%	36.0%	12.8%	2.81×	2.77
New Orleans Pelicans to score 130+	19.0%	17.6%	10.0%	1.76×	5.69

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to win H1	60.9%	62.2%	52.8%	1.18×	1.61
New Orleans Pelicans to win H1	35.7%	37.8%	44.1%	0.86×	2.64
H1 tied	3.3%	3.9%	3.1%	1.25×	25.86

H1 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 over 108.5	81.6%	83.2%	67.7%	1.23×	1.20
H1 under 136.5	83.2%	82.5%	95.4%	0.87×	1.21
H1 over 112.5	81.1%	82.5%	55.8%	1.48×	1.21
H1 under 128.5	73.3%	74.0%	86.7%	0.85×	1.35
H1 under 132.5	74.4%	73.5%	92.0%	0.80×	1.36
H1 over 116.5	71.7%	73.5%	43.4%	1.69×	1.36
H1 under 129.5	66.5%	67.4%	88.1%	0.76×	1.48
H1 over 115.5	64.3%	63.3%	46.4%	1.36×	1.58
H1 over 119.5	63.5%	62.7%	34.1%	1.84×	1.59
H1 under 127.5	60.7%	62.7%	84.8%	0.74×	1.59
H1 over 121.5	57.6%	58.2%	28.8%	2.02×	1.72
H1 over 117.5	58.5%	58.2%	40.4%	1.44×	1.72
H1 under 125.5	54.7%	52.6%	80.7%	0.65×	1.90
H1 over 123.5	51.5%	52.6%	24.0%	2.19×	1.90
H1 under 124.5	51.6%	52.6%	78.4%	0.67×	1.90
H1 under 120.5	50.5%	52.5%	68.4%	0.77×	1.90
H1 over 120.5	49.5%	47.5%	31.6%	1.50×	2.11
H1 under 123.5	48.5%	47.4%	76.0%	0.62×	2.11
H1 over 124.5	48.4%	47.4%	21.7%	2.19×	2.11
H1 over 125.5	45.3%	47.4%	19.3%	2.45×	2.11
H1 under 117.5	41.5%	41.9%	59.6%	0.70×	2.39
H1 under 121.5	42.4%	41.8%	71.2%	0.59×	2.39
H1 over 127.5	39.3%	37.3%	15.2%	2.46×	2.68
H1 under 119.5	36.5%	37.3%	65.9%	0.57×	2.68
H1 under 115.5	35.7%	36.7%	53.6%	0.68×	2.72
H1 over 129.5	33.5%	32.6%	11.9%	2.75×	3.07
H1 under 116.5	28.3%	26.5%	56.6%	0.47×	3.77
H1 over 132.5	25.6%	26.5%	8.0%	3.31×	3.77
H1 over 128.5	26.7%	26.0%	13.3%	1.95×	3.84
H1 under 112.5	18.9%	17.5%	44.2%	0.40×	5.72
H1 over 136.5	16.8%	17.5%	4.6%	3.80×	5.73
H1 under 108.5	18.4%	16.8%	32.3%	0.52×	5.96

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to win H2	60.8%	58.8%	51.6%	1.14×	1.70
New Orleans Pelicans to win H2	35.9%	41.2%	44.7%	0.92×	2.43
H2 tied	3.4%	3.9%	3.7%	1.06×	25.36

H2 total 36

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 over 109.5	82.8%	81.8%	60.9%	1.34×	1.22
H2 under 133.5	82.1%	81.8%	91.8%	0.89×	1.22
H2 under 130.5	83.0%	81.5%	88.9%	0.92×	1.23
H2 over 106.5	81.3%	81.5%	68.8%	1.18×	1.23
H2 over 110.5	72.0%	72.5%	58.1%	1.25×	1.38
H2 over 113.5	73.7%	72.2%	49.9%	1.45×	1.39
H2 under 129.5	72.8%	72.2%	87.6%	0.82×	1.39
H2 over 116.5	65.6%	66.4%	41.9%	1.58×	1.51
H2 under 123.5	66.1%	64.4%	76.9%	0.84×	1.55
H2 under 126.5	64.6%	61.6%	83.2%	0.74×	1.62
H2 over 115.5	57.9%	58.0%	44.6%	1.30×	1.72
H2 over 118.5	59.7%	57.3%	36.4%	1.58×	1.74
H2 under 124.5	58.7%	57.3%	79.1%	0.72×	1.74
H2 over 120.5	53.6%	52.4%	30.7%	1.71×	1.91
H2 under 122.5	52.6%	52.4%	74.4%	0.70×	1.91
H2 over 121.5	50.5%	52.4%	28.0%	1.87×	1.91
H2 under 119.5	54.3%	52.1%	66.4%	0.78×	1.92
H2 over 117.5	51.8%	52.0%	38.9%	1.34×	1.92
H2 under 117.5	48.2%	48.0%	61.1%	0.79×	2.09
H2 over 119.5	45.7%	47.9%	33.6%	1.43×	2.09
H2 under 121.5	49.5%	47.6%	72.0%	0.66×	2.10
H2 over 122.5	47.4%	47.6%	25.6%	1.86×	2.10
H2 under 120.5	46.4%	47.6%	69.3%	0.69×	2.10
H2 over 124.5	41.3%	42.7%	20.9%	2.05×	2.34
H2 under 118.5	40.3%	42.7%	63.6%	0.67×	2.35
H2 under 115.5	42.1%	42.0%	55.4%	0.76×	2.38
H2 over 126.5	35.4%	38.4%	16.8%	2.29×	2.61
H2 over 123.5	33.9%	35.6%	23.1%	1.54×	2.81
H2 under 116.5	34.4%	33.6%	58.1%	0.58×	2.97
H2 over 129.5	27.2%	27.8%	12.4%	2.24×	3.59
H2 under 113.5	26.3%	27.8%	50.1%	0.56×	3.59
H2 under 110.5	28.0%	27.5%	41.9%	0.66×	3.63
H2 under 106.5	18.7%	18.5%	31.2%	0.59×	5.41
H2 over 130.5	17.0%	18.5%	11.1%	1.67×	5.41
H2 over 133.5	17.9%	18.2%	8.2%	2.22×	5.50
H2 under 109.5	17.2%	18.2%	39.1%	0.46×	5.50

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat leading at half time	60.9%	62.5%	52.8%	1.18×	1.60
New Orleans Pelicans leading at half time	35.7%	37.8%	44.1%	0.86×	2.64
Level at half time	3.3%	3.8%	3.1%	1.22×	26.41

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat +18.5	96.0%	97.4%	91.5%	1.06×	1.03
Miami Heat +20.5	97.0%	97.4%	93.1%	1.05×	1.03
Miami Heat +16.5	94.6%	91.1%	89.7%	1.02×	1.10
Miami Heat +14.5	92.9%	91.1%	87.0%	1.05×	1.10
Miami Heat +12.5	90.9%	91.1%	83.9%	1.09×	1.10
Miami Heat +9.5	87.0%	85.9%	78.1%	1.10×	1.16
Miami Heat +10.5	88.4%	85.9%	80.3%	1.07×	1.16
Miami Heat +8.5	85.4%	85.9%	75.7%	1.13×	1.16
Miami Heat +7.5	83.8%	81.1%	73.0%	1.11×	1.23
Miami Heat +6.5	82.0%	81.1%	70.6%	1.15×	1.23
New Orleans Pelicans +20.5	81.9%	81.1%	89.1%	0.91×	1.23
Miami Heat +5.5	80.1%	81.1%	68.0%	1.19×	1.23
New Orleans Pelicans +18.5	78.0%	76.5%	86.4%	0.89×	1.31
Miami Heat +4.5	78.1%	76.5%	65.7%	1.16×	1.31
Miami Heat +3.5	76.0%	76.5%	63.1%	1.21×	1.31
New Orleans Pelicans +16.5	73.7%	71.6%	83.5%	0.86×	1.40
Miami Heat +2.5	73.8%	71.6%	60.5%	1.18×	1.40
Miami Heat +1.5	71.5%	71.6%	57.9%	1.24×	1.40
New Orleans Pelicans +14.5	68.9%	66.7%	80.1%	0.83×	1.50
Miami Heat −1.5	66.5%	66.7%	53.7%	1.24×	1.50
New Orleans Pelicans +12.5	63.8%	61.9%	76.0%	0.82×	1.62
Miami Heat −2.5	63.8%	61.9%	50.9%	1.22×	1.62
Miami Heat −3.5	61.1%	61.9%	48.4%	1.28×	1.62
New Orleans Pelicans +10.5	58.5%	57.1%	71.0%	0.80×	1.75
Miami Heat −4.5	58.3%	57.1%	46.0%	1.24×	1.75
New Orleans Pelicans +9.5	55.7%	57.1%	68.7%	0.83×	1.75
Miami Heat −5.5	55.5%	57.1%	42.9%	1.33×	1.75
Miami Heat −6.5	52.7%	52.4%	40.0%	1.31×	1.91
New Orleans Pelicans +8.5	52.9%	52.4%	65.9%	0.80×	1.91
New Orleans Pelicans +7.5	50.1%	52.4%	63.0%	0.83×	1.91
Miami Heat −7.5	49.9%	47.6%	37.0%	1.29×	2.10
New Orleans Pelicans +6.5	47.3%	47.6%	60.0%	0.79×	2.10
Miami Heat −8.5	47.1%	47.6%	34.1%	1.40×	2.10
Miami Heat −9.5	44.3%	42.9%	31.3%	1.37×	2.33
New Orleans Pelicans +5.5	44.5%	42.9%	57.1%	0.75×	2.33
Miami Heat −10.5	41.5%	42.9%	29.0%	1.48×	2.33
New Orleans Pelicans +4.5	41.7%	42.9%	54.1%	0.79×	2.33
New Orleans Pelicans +3.5	38.9%	38.1%	51.6%	0.74×	2.63
Miami Heat −12.5	36.2%	38.1%	24.0%	1.58×	2.63
New Orleans Pelicans +2.5	36.2%	38.1%	49.1%	0.78×	2.63
New Orleans Pelicans +1.5	33.5%	33.3%	46.3%	0.72×	3.01
Miami Heat −14.5	31.1%	33.3%	19.9%	1.68×	3.01
New Orleans Pelicans −1.5	28.5%	28.4%	42.1%	0.67×	3.53
Miami Heat −16.5	26.3%	28.4%	16.5%	1.72×	3.53
New Orleans Pelicans −2.5	26.2%	28.4%	39.5%	0.72×	3.53
New Orleans Pelicans −3.5	24.0%	23.5%	36.9%	0.64×	4.25
Miami Heat −18.5	22.0%	23.5%	13.6%	1.73×	4.25
New Orleans Pelicans −4.5	21.9%	23.5%	34.3%	0.69×	4.25
New Orleans Pelicans −5.5	19.9%	18.9%	32.0%	0.59×	5.29
New Orleans Pelicans −6.5	18.0%	18.9%	29.4%	0.64×	5.29
Miami Heat −20.5	18.1%	18.9%	10.9%	1.74×	5.29
New Orleans Pelicans −7.5	16.2%	18.9%	27.0%	0.70×	5.30
New Orleans Pelicans −8.5	14.6%	14.1%	24.3%	0.58×	7.09
New Orleans Pelicans −9.5	13.0%	14.1%	21.9%	0.65×	7.09
New Orleans Pelicans −10.5	11.6%	14.1%	19.7%	0.71×	7.09
New Orleans Pelicans −12.5	9.1%	8.9%	16.1%	0.55×	11.25
New Orleans Pelicans −14.5	7.1%	8.9%	13.0%	0.68×	11.25
New Orleans Pelicans −16.5	5.4%	8.9%	10.3%	0.86×	11.25
New Orleans Pelicans −18.5	4.0%	2.6%	8.5%	0.30×	38.72
New Orleans Pelicans −20.5	3.0%	2.6%	6.9%	0.37×	38.73

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	57.1%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
2nd half highest scoring	42.9%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 highest scoring	28.5%	27.4%	29.2%	0.94×	3.65
Q3 highest scoring	28.2%	27.4%	27.5%	1.00×	3.65
Q2 highest scoring	26.6%	27.4%	26.3%	1.04×	3.65
Q4 highest scoring	16.7%	18.3%	17.0%	1.08×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat at HT / Miami Heat at FT	52.1%	51.1%	40.8%	1.25×	1.96
New Orleans Pelicans at HT / New Orleans Pelicans at FT	21.0%	24.4%	30.9%	0.79×	4.10
New Orleans Pelicans at HT / Miami Heat at FT	14.8%	12.2%	13.3%	0.92×	8.17
Miami Heat at HT / New Orleans Pelicans at FT	8.8%	8.3%	12.0%	0.69×	12.08
Level at HT / Miami Heat at FT	2.2%	2.1%	1.7%	1.22×	47.75
Level at HT / New Orleans Pelicans at FT	1.2%	2.1%	1.4%	1.49×	47.77

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to win	69.1%	64.5%	55.7%	1.16×	1.55
New Orleans Pelicans to win	31.0%	35.5%	44.3%	0.80×	2.82

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat odd	50.0%	50.5%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
New Orleans Pelicans even	50.0%	50.5%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
Total points odd	51.3%	50.5%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Miami Heat even	50.0%	49.5%	49.7%	1.00×	2.02
New Orleans Pelicans odd	50.0%	49.5%	49.7%	1.00×	2.02
Total points even	48.7%	49.5%	49.0%	1.01×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	93.7%	94.0%	94.8%	0.99×	1.06
Match to go to overtime	6.3%	6.0%	5.2%	1.16×	16.65

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to win Q1	56.3%	57.3%	51.3%	1.12×	1.75
New Orleans Pelicans to win Q1	39.0%	38.3%	44.1%	0.87×	2.61
Q1 tied	4.7%	4.2%	4.6%	0.90×	23.94

Q1 total 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 under 68.5	83.1%	83.2%	90.7%	0.92×	1.20
Q1 over 52.5	82.0%	83.2%	72.4%	1.15×	1.20
Q1 under 70.5	83.7%	82.8%	94.0%	0.88×	1.21
Q1 over 54.5	81.6%	82.8%	63.3%	1.31×	1.21
Q1 over 55.5	71.4%	73.1%	59.2%	1.24×	1.37
Q1 under 67.5	73.6%	72.7%	88.8%	0.82×	1.38
Q1 over 57.5	70.8%	72.7%	49.6%	1.47×	1.38
Q1 under 65.5	65.3%	67.6%	83.2%	0.81×	1.48
Q1 over 59.5	62.2%	61.7%	40.0%	1.54×	1.62
Q1 under 63.5	56.3%	58.6%	76.8%	0.76×	1.71
Q1 under 60.5	50.8%	52.7%	64.5%	0.82×	1.90
Q1 over 61.5	53.0%	52.7%	31.5%	1.67×	1.90
Q1 under 62.5	51.7%	52.7%	72.9%	0.72×	1.90
Q1 over 62.5	48.3%	47.3%	27.1%	1.75×	2.11
Q1 under 61.5	47.0%	47.3%	68.5%	0.69×	2.11
Q1 over 60.5	49.2%	47.3%	35.5%	1.33×	2.11
Q1 over 63.5	43.7%	41.4%	23.2%	1.78×	2.42
Q1 under 59.5	37.8%	38.3%	60.0%	0.64×	2.61
Q1 over 65.5	34.7%	32.4%	16.8%	1.93×	3.08
Q1 under 57.5	29.2%	27.3%	50.4%	0.54×	3.66
Q1 over 67.5	26.4%	27.3%	11.2%	2.43×	3.66
Q1 under 55.5	28.6%	26.9%	40.8%	0.66×	3.72
Q1 under 54.5	18.4%	17.2%	36.7%	0.47×	5.83
Q1 over 70.5	16.3%	17.2%	6.0%	2.86×	5.83
Q1 under 52.5	18.0%	16.8%	27.6%	0.61×	5.95
Q1 over 68.5	16.9%	16.8%	9.3%	1.80×	5.95

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to win Q2	56.2%	59.4%	49.3%	1.20×	1.68
New Orleans Pelicans to win Q2	39.1%	35.8%	46.2%	0.77×	2.79
Q2 tied	4.6%	4.4%	4.5%	0.98×	22.88

Q2 total 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 under 68.5	83.8%	83.1%	90.6%	0.92×	1.20
Q2 over 52.5	80.9%	83.1%	70.3%	1.18×	1.20
Q2 under 70.5	84.5%	83.0%	94.0%	0.88×	1.21
Q2 over 54.5	80.4%	83.0%	61.1%	1.36×	1.21
Q2 over 55.5	70.0%	73.0%	56.3%	1.30×	1.37
Q2 under 67.5	74.7%	72.0%	88.7%	0.81×	1.39
Q2 over 57.5	69.4%	67.4%	47.3%	1.42×	1.48
Q2 under 65.5	66.6%	67.4%	83.6%	0.81×	1.49
Q2 over 59.5	60.7%	60.7%	38.1%	1.59×	1.65
Q2 under 63.5	57.8%	58.2%	77.5%	0.75×	1.72
Q2 under 62.5	53.1%	52.7%	74.4%	0.71×	1.90
Q2 over 61.5	51.5%	52.7%	29.6%	1.78×	1.90
Q2 under 60.5	52.3%	52.2%	65.7%	0.79×	1.92
Q2 over 60.5	47.7%	47.8%	34.3%	1.40×	2.09
Q2 under 61.5	48.5%	47.3%	70.4%	0.67×	2.11
Q2 over 62.5	46.9%	47.3%	25.6%	1.85×	2.11
Q2 over 63.5	42.2%	41.8%	22.5%	1.86×	2.39
Q2 under 59.5	39.3%	39.3%	61.9%	0.63×	2.55
Q2 over 65.5	33.4%	32.6%	16.4%	2.00×	3.06
Q2 under 57.5	30.6%	32.6%	52.7%	0.62×	3.06
Q2 over 67.5	25.3%	28.0%	11.3%	2.47×	3.57
Q2 under 55.5	30.0%	27.0%	43.7%	0.62×	3.71
Q2 under 54.5	19.6%	17.0%	38.9%	0.44×	5.88
Q2 over 70.5	15.5%	17.0%	6.0%	2.81×	5.89
Q2 under 52.5	19.1%	16.9%	29.7%	0.57×	5.93
Q2 over 68.5	16.2%	16.9%	9.4%	1.78×	5.93

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to win Q3	56.3%	56.8%	50.9%	1.12×	1.76
New Orleans Pelicans to win Q3	39.1%	38.8%	44.3%	0.88×	2.58
Q3 tied	4.6%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.43

Q3 total 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 under 70.5	83.5%	82.3%	92.9%	0.89×	1.22
Q3 over 54.5	82.4%	82.3%	63.9%	1.29×	1.22
Q3 over 52.5	82.7%	82.2%	72.2%	1.14×	1.22
Q3 under 68.5	82.8%	82.2%	89.3%	0.92×	1.22
Q3 over 55.5	72.2%	72.5%	59.9%	1.21×	1.38
Q3 under 67.5	73.1%	71.8%	87.0%	0.83×	1.39
Q3 over 57.5	71.7%	71.8%	50.2%	1.43×	1.39
Q3 under 65.5	64.7%	62.0%	82.2%	0.75×	1.61
Q3 over 59.5	63.1%	62.0%	41.0%	1.51×	1.61
Q3 under 63.5	55.6%	58.4%	75.9%	0.77×	1.71
Q3 under 60.5	50.1%	52.6%	63.5%	0.83×	1.90
Q3 over 61.5	53.9%	52.3%	32.3%	1.62×	1.91
Q3 under 62.5	50.9%	52.3%	71.9%	0.73×	1.91
Q3 over 62.5	49.1%	47.7%	28.1%	1.70×	2.10
Q3 under 61.5	46.1%	47.7%	67.7%	0.70×	2.10
Q3 over 60.5	49.9%	47.4%	36.5%	1.30×	2.11
Q3 over 63.5	44.4%	41.6%	24.1%	1.73×	2.40
Q3 under 59.5	36.9%	38.1%	59.0%	0.65×	2.63
Q3 over 65.5	35.3%	38.0%	17.8%	2.14×	2.63
Q3 under 57.5	28.3%	28.2%	49.8%	0.57×	3.55
Q3 over 67.5	26.9%	28.2%	13.0%	2.17×	3.55
Q3 under 55.5	27.8%	27.5%	40.1%	0.69×	3.64
Q3 under 52.5	17.3%	17.8%	27.8%	0.64×	5.62
Q3 over 68.5	17.2%	17.8%	10.7%	1.66×	5.62
Q3 under 54.5	17.6%	17.7%	36.1%	0.49×	5.66
Q3 over 70.5	16.5%	17.7%	7.1%	2.48×	5.66

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to win Q4	56.1%	52.0%	48.3%	1.08×	1.92
New Orleans Pelicans to win Q4	39.2%	42.4%	46.4%	0.91×	2.36
Q4 tied	4.8%	5.2%	5.3%	0.98×	19.28

Q4 total 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 under 67.5	82.6%	82.0%	91.7%	0.89×	1.22
Q4 over 51.5	81.7%	82.0%	64.7%	1.27×	1.22
Q4 over 49.5	82.3%	81.9%	72.3%	1.13×	1.22
Q4 under 65.5	81.7%	81.9%	88.4%	0.93×	1.22
Q4 over 52.5	72.1%	72.3%	60.4%	1.20×	1.38
Q4 under 64.5	72.4%	71.5%	86.3%	0.83×	1.40
Q4 over 54.5	71.2%	71.5%	51.4%	1.39×	1.40
Q4 under 62.5	64.2%	61.4%	80.4%	0.76×	1.63
Q4 over 56.5	62.9%	61.4%	42.8%	1.44×	1.63
Q4 under 60.5	55.3%	58.4%	74.2%	0.79×	1.71
Q4 over 58.5	53.9%	52.5%	33.8%	1.55×	1.91
Q4 under 59.5	50.7%	52.5%	70.2%	0.75×	1.91
Q4 over 57.5	50.5%	52.3%	38.1%	1.37×	1.91
Q4 under 57.5	49.5%	47.7%	61.9%	0.77×	2.10
Q4 over 59.5	49.3%	47.5%	29.8%	1.60×	2.11
Q4 under 58.5	46.1%	47.5%	66.2%	0.72×	2.11
Q4 over 60.5	44.7%	41.6%	25.8%	1.62×	2.40
Q4 under 56.5	37.1%	38.6%	57.2%	0.67×	2.59
Q4 over 62.5	35.8%	38.6%	19.6%	1.97×	2.59
Q4 under 54.5	28.8%	28.5%	48.6%	0.59×	3.51
Q4 over 64.5	27.6%	28.5%	13.7%	2.08×	3.51
Q4 under 52.5	27.9%	27.7%	39.6%	0.70×	3.61
Q4 over 65.5	18.3%	18.1%	11.6%	1.56×	5.53
Q4 under 49.5	17.7%	18.1%	27.7%	0.65×	5.53
Q4 under 51.5	18.3%	18.0%	35.3%	0.51×	5.56
Q4 over 67.5	17.4%	18.0%	8.3%	2.16×	5.56

Team total 66

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat under 136.5	80.3%	80.7%	95.3%	0.85×	1.24
New Orleans Pelicans under 129.5	81.0%	80.7%	90.0%	0.90×	1.24
New Orleans Pelicans under 127.5	81.3%	80.3%	86.9%	0.92×	1.25
Miami Heat over 111.5	80.0%	78.3%	61.1%	1.28×	1.28
New Orleans Pelicans over 107.5	77.8%	78.3%	66.6%	1.17×	1.28
Miami Heat over 116.5	79.9%	75.1%	45.3%	1.66×	1.33
New Orleans Pelicans over 109.5	79.7%	75.1%	60.9%	1.23×	1.33
Miami Heat over 114.5	72.3%	71.8%	51.4%	1.40×	1.39
Miami Heat under 128.5	71.4%	71.8%	85.5%	0.84×	1.39
New Orleans Pelicans under 126.5	73.3%	70.7%	85.3%	0.83×	1.41
New Orleans Pelicans over 112.5	71.7%	70.7%	51.5%	1.37×	1.41
Miami Heat over 119.5	72.1%	70.7%	36.5%	1.94×	1.41
Miami Heat under 133.5	72.5%	70.7%	92.3%	0.77×	1.41
New Orleans Pelicans over 110.5	69.8%	66.6%	57.9%	1.15×	1.50
New Orleans Pelicans under 124.5	67.4%	66.4%	81.4%	0.82×	1.51
Miami Heat over 121.5	66.2%	66.4%	30.4%	2.18×	1.51
Miami Heat under 131.5	66.6%	66.4%	89.8%	0.74×	1.51
New Orleans Pelicans over 114.5	65.6%	66.4%	44.5%	1.49×	1.51
New Orleans Pelicans under 122.5	61.1%	61.2%	77.4%	0.79×	1.63
Miami Heat under 129.5	60.2%	61.2%	87.2%	0.70×	1.63
Miami Heat over 118.5	60.3%	61.2%	39.7%	1.54×	1.64
Miami Heat under 124.5	59.2%	57.9%	76.8%	0.75×	1.73
Miami Heat over 123.5	59.8%	57.1%	25.6%	2.23×	1.75
New Orleans Pelicans over 116.5	59.1%	57.1%	38.5%	1.48×	1.75
New Orleans Pelicans under 120.5	54.4%	52.3%	72.7%	0.72×	1.91
Miami Heat over 125.5	53.2%	52.3%	20.9%	2.50×	1.91
New Orleans Pelicans over 118.5	52.4%	52.3%	32.6%	1.60×	1.91
Miami Heat under 127.5	53.6%	52.3%	83.5%	0.63×	1.91
New Orleans Pelicans under 119.5	51.0%	52.3%	70.3%	0.74×	1.91
Miami Heat under 126.5	50.2%	52.3%	81.5%	0.64×	1.91
Miami Heat over 120.5	53.9%	52.2%	33.7%	1.55×	1.91
Miami Heat under 122.5	52.7%	52.2%	71.8%	0.73×	1.91
New Orleans Pelicans under 117.5	52.5%	52.2%	64.4%	0.81×	1.91
New Orleans Pelicans over 117.5	47.5%	47.8%	35.6%	1.34×	2.09
Miami Heat over 122.5	47.3%	47.8%	28.2%	1.69×	2.09
Miami Heat under 120.5	46.1%	47.8%	66.3%	0.72×	2.09
Miami Heat over 126.5	49.8%	47.7%	18.5%	2.59×	2.09
Miami Heat under 125.5	46.8%	47.7%	79.1%	0.60×	2.09
New Orleans Pelicans under 118.5	47.6%	47.7%	67.4%	0.71×	2.09
Miami Heat over 127.5	46.4%	47.7%	16.5%	2.90×	2.09
New Orleans Pelicans over 119.5	49.0%	47.7%	29.7%	1.61×	2.09
New Orleans Pelicans over 120.5	45.6%	47.7%	27.3%	1.75×	2.09
New Orleans Pelicans under 116.5	40.9%	42.9%	61.5%	0.70×	2.33
Miami Heat under 123.5	40.2%	42.9%	74.4%	0.58×	2.33
Miami Heat over 124.5	40.8%	42.1%	23.2%	1.81×	2.38
Miami Heat under 118.5	39.7%	38.8%	60.3%	0.64×	2.58
Miami Heat over 129.5	39.8%	38.8%	12.8%	3.02×	2.58
New Orleans Pelicans over 122.5	38.9%	38.8%	22.6%	1.71×	2.58
New Orleans Pelicans under 114.5	34.4%	33.6%	55.5%	0.61×	2.98
Miami Heat under 121.5	33.8%	33.6%	69.6%	0.48×	2.98
Miami Heat over 131.5	33.4%	33.6%	10.2%	3.29×	2.98
New Orleans Pelicans over 124.5	32.6%	33.6%	18.6%	1.81×	2.98
New Orleans Pelicans under 110.5	30.2%	33.4%	42.1%	0.79×	3.00
New Orleans Pelicans under 112.5	28.3%	29.3%	48.5%	0.60×	3.42
Miami Heat under 119.5	27.9%	29.3%	63.5%	0.46×	3.42
Miami Heat over 133.5	27.5%	29.3%	7.7%	3.78×	3.42
New Orleans Pelicans over 126.5	26.7%	29.3%	14.7%	1.99×	3.42
Miami Heat over 128.5	28.6%	28.2%	14.5%	1.94×	3.55
Miami Heat under 114.5	27.7%	28.2%	48.6%	0.58×	3.55
Miami Heat under 116.5	20.1%	24.9%	54.7%	0.45×	4.02
New Orleans Pelicans under 109.5	20.3%	24.9%	39.1%	0.64×	4.02
New Orleans Pelicans under 107.5	22.2%	21.7%	33.4%	0.65×	4.60
Miami Heat under 111.5	20.1%	21.7%	38.9%	0.56×	4.61
New Orleans Pelicans over 127.5	18.7%	19.7%	13.1%	1.50×	5.07
Miami Heat over 136.5	19.7%	19.3%	4.8%	4.06×	5.18
New Orleans Pelicans over 129.5	19.0%	19.3%	10.0%	1.94×	5.18

Total points 52

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 218.5 points	85.6%	85.5%	67.8%	1.26×	1.17
Under 258.5 points	85.7%	85.5%	93.0%	0.92×	1.17
Over 225.5 points	86.3%	85.0%	54.7%	1.55×	1.18
Under 265.5 points	86.0%	85.0%	96.4%	0.88×	1.18
Under 253.5 points	78.9%	78.1%	89.1%	0.88×	1.28
Over 223.5 points	78.6%	78.1%	58.3%	1.34×	1.28
Over 230.5 points	79.5%	75.6%	44.6%	1.69×	1.32
Under 260.5 points	79.0%	75.6%	94.1%	0.80×	1.32
Over 228.5 points	70.2%	71.0%	48.7%	1.46×	1.41
Over 235.5 points	70.9%	70.8%	34.7%	2.04×	1.41
Under 255.5 points	70.4%	70.8%	90.8%	0.78×	1.41
Over 238.5 points	65.1%	65.9%	29.1%	2.26×	1.52
Over 231.5 points	64.3%	61.8%	42.6%	1.45×	1.62
Under 243.5 points	60.7%	61.7%	78.2%	0.79×	1.62
Over 233.5 points	60.3%	61.7%	38.6%	1.60×	1.62
Under 252.5 points	64.5%	61.5%	88.1%	0.70×	1.63
Over 240.5 points	61.0%	61.5%	26.0%	2.37×	1.63
Under 250.5 points	60.4%	61.5%	86.1%	0.71×	1.63
Under 248.5 points	56.1%	56.5%	84.4%	0.67×	1.77
Over 242.5 points	56.8%	56.5%	23.2%	2.44×	1.77
Under 241.5 points	56.5%	56.0%	75.5%	0.74×	1.79
Over 244.5 points	52.5%	52.3%	20.5%	2.55×	1.91
Under 246.5 points	51.8%	52.3%	82.0%	0.64×	1.91
Over 245.5 points	50.3%	52.3%	19.1%	2.73×	1.91
Under 239.5 points	52.3%	52.2%	72.5%	0.72×	1.92
Over 237.5 points	51.9%	52.2%	30.7%	1.70×	1.92
Under 237.5 points	48.1%	47.8%	69.3%	0.69×	2.09
Over 239.5 points	47.7%	47.8%	27.5%	1.74×	2.09
Under 245.5 points	49.7%	47.7%	80.9%	0.59×	2.10
Under 244.5 points	47.5%	47.7%	79.5%	0.60×	2.10
Over 246.5 points	48.2%	47.7%	18.0%	2.65×	2.10
Over 241.5 points	43.5%	44.0%	24.5%	1.80×	2.27
Over 248.5 points	43.9%	43.5%	15.6%	2.80×	2.30
Under 242.5 points	43.2%	43.5%	76.8%	0.57×	2.30
Over 250.5 points	39.6%	38.5%	13.9%	2.78×	2.60
Under 240.5 points	39.0%	38.5%	74.0%	0.52×	2.60
Over 252.5 points	35.5%	38.5%	11.9%	3.24×	2.60
Under 233.5 points	39.7%	38.3%	61.4%	0.62×	2.61
Over 243.5 points	39.3%	38.3%	21.8%	1.75×	2.61
Under 231.5 points	35.7%	38.2%	57.4%	0.67×	2.62
Under 238.5 points	34.9%	34.1%	70.9%	0.48×	2.93
Over 255.5 points	29.6%	29.2%	9.2%	3.17×	3.43
Under 235.5 points	29.1%	29.2%	65.3%	0.45×	3.43
Under 228.5 points	29.8%	29.0%	51.3%	0.56×	3.45
Over 260.5 points	21.0%	24.4%	5.9%	4.15×	4.10
Under 230.5 points	20.5%	24.4%	55.4%	0.44×	4.10
Under 223.5 points	21.4%	21.9%	41.7%	0.52×	4.57
Over 253.5 points	21.1%	21.9%	10.9%	2.02×	4.57
Over 265.5 points	14.0%	15.0%	3.6%	4.14×	6.68
Under 225.5 points	13.7%	15.0%	45.3%	0.33×	6.68
Under 218.5 points	14.4%	14.5%	32.2%	0.45×	6.88
Over 258.5 points	14.3%	14.5%	7.0%	2.08×	6.88

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat to win both halves	35.0%	31.3%	25.2%	1.24×	3.20
New Orleans Pelicans to win both halves	10.9%	14.0%	17.8%	0.79×	7.13

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat by 1-5	13.5%	12.3%	12.8%	0.96×	8.11
Miami Heat by 6-10	14.0%	12.3%	13.9%	0.88×	8.11
Miami Heat by 11-15	12.9%	12.3%	10.8%	1.14×	8.11
New Orleans Pelicans by 1-5	11.1%	12.3%	12.3%	1.01×	8.11
Miami Heat by 16-20	10.6%	12.3%	7.3%	1.68×	8.11
Miami Heat by 26+	10.4%	12.3%	6.2%	1.99×	8.11
New Orleans Pelicans by 6-10	8.2%	7.5%	12.3%	0.61×	13.40
Miami Heat by 21-25	7.7%	7.5%	4.7%	1.58×	13.40
New Orleans Pelicans by 11-15	5.5%	7.5%	8.0%	0.93×	13.40
New Orleans Pelicans by 16-20	3.2%	2.0%	4.9%	0.42×	49.30
New Orleans Pelicans by 21-25	1.7%	2.0%	3.0%	0.67×	49.31
New Orleans Pelicans by 26+	1.3%	2.0%	3.9%	0.53×	49.32

Miami Heat v New Orleans Pelicans — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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