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Nevada Wolf Pack v Utah Valley Wolverines — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 14 November 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Nevada Wolf Pack win
67.4%
Draw
0.0%
Utah Valley Wolverines win
32.6%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 76.41–71.75 77-72 0% 49% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Utah Valley Wolverines to score 100+ 0.2% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 283.32
Utah Valley Wolverines to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.36
Utah Valley Wolverines to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
Utah Valley Wolverines to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.35
Nevada Wolf Pack to score 100+ 0.9% 0.4% 3.4% 0.10× 283.18
Nevada Wolf Pack to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.35
Nevada Wolf Pack to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.36
Nevada Wolf Pack to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack to win H1 58.2% 57.3% 57.9% 0.99× 1.75
Nevada Wolf Pack to win H1 58.1% 57.3% 57.9% 0.99× 1.75
Utah Valley Wolverines to win H1 37.4% 37.8% 38.2% 0.99× 2.64
Utah Valley Wolverines to win H1 37.5% 37.8% 38.2% 0.99× 2.64
H1 tied 4.4% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 tied 4.4% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 82.5 87.9% 87.7% 88.9% 0.99× 1.14
H1 over 58.5 86.2% 87.7% 83.3% 1.05× 1.14
H1 under 78.5 79.3% 77.4% 80.7% 0.96× 1.29
H1 under 78.5 78.6% 77.4% 80.7% 0.96× 1.29
H1 over 62.5 76.9% 77.4% 72.0% 1.08× 1.29
H1 over 62.5 76.2% 77.4% 72.0% 1.08× 1.29
H1 under 75.5 70.1% 73.5% 72.8% 1.01× 1.36
H1 under 75.5 69.5% 67.4% 72.8% 0.93× 1.48
H1 over 65.5 67.1% 67.4% 61.9% 1.09× 1.48
H1 over 65.5 66.6% 67.4% 61.9% 1.09× 1.48
H1 under 73.5 63.0% 62.7% 66.6% 0.94× 1.59
H1 under 73.5 62.6% 62.7% 66.6% 0.94× 1.59
H1 over 67.5 59.9% 58.2% 54.4% 1.07× 1.72
H1 over 67.5 59.6% 58.2% 54.4% 1.07× 1.72
H1 under 71.5 55.5% 58.2% 60.0% 0.97× 1.72
H1 under 71.5 55.3% 58.2% 60.0% 0.97× 1.72
H1 over 69.5 52.2% 52.6% 46.9% 1.12× 1.90
H1 under 70.5 51.7% 52.6% 56.5% 0.93× 1.90
H1 over 69.5 52.1% 52.6% 46.9% 1.12× 1.90
H1 under 70.5 51.6% 52.6% 56.5% 0.93× 1.90
H1 over 70.5 48.4% 47.4% 43.5% 1.09× 2.11
H1 under 69.5 47.8% 47.4% 53.1% 0.89× 2.11
H1 over 70.5 48.3% 47.4% 43.5% 1.09× 2.11
H1 under 69.5 47.9% 47.4% 53.1% 0.89× 2.11
H1 over 71.5 44.5% 41.8% 40.0% 1.05× 2.39
H1 over 71.5 44.7% 41.8% 40.0% 1.05× 2.39
H1 under 67.5 40.1% 41.8% 45.6% 0.92× 2.39
H1 under 67.5 40.4% 41.8% 45.6% 0.92× 2.39
H1 over 73.5 37.0% 37.3% 33.4% 1.12× 2.68
H1 over 73.5 37.4% 37.3% 33.4% 1.12× 2.68
H1 under 65.5 33.4% 32.6% 38.1% 0.86× 3.07
H1 under 65.5 32.9% 32.6% 38.1% 0.86× 3.07
H1 over 75.5 30.5% 32.6% 27.2% 1.20× 3.07
H1 over 75.5 29.9% 26.5% 27.2% 0.98× 3.77
H1 under 62.5 23.8% 22.6% 28.0% 0.80× 4.43
H1 under 62.5 23.1% 22.6% 28.0% 0.80× 4.43
H1 over 78.5 21.4% 22.6% 19.3% 1.17× 4.43
H1 over 78.5 20.7% 22.6% 19.3% 1.17× 4.43
H1 under 58.5 13.8% 12.3% 16.7% 0.74× 8.13
H1 over 82.5 12.1% 12.3% 11.1% 1.10× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack to win H2 59.0% 55.0% 56.9% 0.97× 1.82
Nevada Wolf Pack to win H2 59.0% 55.0% 57.5% 0.96× 1.82
Utah Valley Wolverines to win H2 36.8% 41.2% 38.9% 1.06× 2.43
Utah Valley Wolverines to win H2 36.8% 41.2% 38.5% 1.07× 2.43
H2 tied 4.2% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.35
H2 tied 4.2% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.35
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 90.5 86.4% 85.2% 83.6% 1.02× 1.17
H2 over 66.5 84.8% 81.8% 82.3% 0.99× 1.22
H2 under 86.5 77.8% 75.8% 79.3% 0.96× 1.32
H2 under 86.5 77.2% 75.8% 75.7% 1.00× 1.32
H2 over 70.5 75.6% 75.8% 69.8% 1.09× 1.32
H2 over 70.5 75.0% 75.8% 71.9% 1.05× 1.32
H2 under 83.5 68.9% 66.4% 71.6% 0.93× 1.51
H2 under 83.5 68.4% 66.4% 68.0% 0.98× 1.51
H2 over 73.5 66.3% 66.4% 60.4% 1.10× 1.51
H2 over 73.5 65.9% 66.4% 63.1% 1.05× 1.51
H2 under 81.5 62.2% 61.6% 65.8% 0.94× 1.62
H2 under 81.5 61.8% 61.6% 62.2% 0.99× 1.62
H2 over 75.5 59.4% 57.3% 53.4% 1.07× 1.74
H2 over 75.5 59.1% 57.3% 56.4% 1.02× 1.74
H2 under 79.5 55.1% 57.3% 59.8% 0.96× 1.74
H2 under 79.5 54.9% 52.4% 56.2% 0.93× 1.91
H2 over 77.5 52.2% 52.4% 47.0% 1.12× 1.91
H2 under 78.5 51.4% 52.4% 56.4% 0.93× 1.91
H2 over 77.5 52.1% 52.4% 50.2% 1.04× 1.91
H2 under 78.5 51.4% 52.4% 53.0% 0.99× 1.91
H2 under 77.5 47.8% 47.6% 53.0% 0.90× 2.10
H2 over 78.5 48.6% 47.6% 43.6% 1.09× 2.10
H2 under 77.5 47.9% 47.6% 49.8% 0.96× 2.10
H2 over 78.5 48.6% 47.6% 47.0% 1.01× 2.10
H2 over 79.5 45.1% 47.6% 43.8% 1.09× 2.10
H2 over 79.5 44.9% 42.7% 40.3% 1.06× 2.34
H2 under 75.5 40.9% 42.7% 43.6% 0.98× 2.35
H2 under 75.5 40.6% 42.7% 46.6% 0.91× 2.35
H2 over 81.5 37.8% 38.4% 34.2% 1.12× 2.61
H2 over 81.5 38.2% 38.4% 37.8% 1.02× 2.61
H2 under 73.5 33.7% 33.6% 39.6% 0.85× 2.97
H2 under 73.5 34.1% 33.6% 36.9% 0.91× 2.97
H2 over 83.5 31.1% 33.6% 28.4% 1.18× 2.97
H2 over 83.5 31.6% 33.6% 32.0% 1.05× 2.97
H2 under 70.5 25.0% 24.2% 28.1% 0.86× 4.13
H2 under 70.5 24.4% 24.2% 30.2% 0.80× 4.13
H2 over 86.5 22.8% 24.2% 24.3% 1.00× 4.13
H2 over 86.5 22.2% 24.2% 20.7% 1.17× 4.13
H2 under 66.5 15.2% 18.2% 17.7% 1.03× 5.50
H2 over 90.5 13.6% 14.8% 16.4% 0.90× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack leading at half time 58.1% 56.9% 57.9% 0.98× 1.76
Utah Valley Wolverines leading at half time 37.5% 37.9% 38.2% 0.99× 2.64
Level at half time 4.4% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.40
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack +14.5 96.2% 97.4% 92.2% 1.06× 1.03
Nevada Wolf Pack +16.5 97.5% 97.4% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
Nevada Wolf Pack +18.5 98.4% 97.4% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
Nevada Wolf Pack +20.5 99.0% 97.4% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
Nevada Wolf Pack +12.5 94.3% 91.1% 89.9% 1.01× 1.10
Utah Valley Wolverines +20.5 92.8% 91.1% 86.5% 1.05× 1.10
Nevada Wolf Pack +9.5 90.3% 91.1% 85.3% 1.07× 1.10
Nevada Wolf Pack +10.5 91.9% 91.1% 87.2% 1.05× 1.10
Nevada Wolf Pack +8.5 88.6% 85.9% 83.3% 1.03× 1.16
Utah Valley Wolverines +18.5 89.8% 85.9% 83.9% 1.02× 1.16
Nevada Wolf Pack +7.5 86.7% 85.9% 81.0% 1.06× 1.16
Utah Valley Wolverines +16.5 86.0% 85.9% 80.7% 1.06× 1.16
Nevada Wolf Pack +6.5 84.6% 81.1% 78.8% 1.03× 1.23
Nevada Wolf Pack +5.5 82.2% 81.1% 76.4% 1.06× 1.23
Utah Valley Wolverines +14.5 81.4% 81.1% 77.2% 1.05× 1.23
Nevada Wolf Pack +4.5 79.7% 76.5% 73.7% 1.04× 1.31
Nevada Wolf Pack +3.5 76.9% 76.5% 70.8% 1.08× 1.31
Utah Valley Wolverines +12.5 75.9% 76.5% 72.4% 1.06× 1.31
Nevada Wolf Pack +2.5 73.9% 71.6% 68.0% 1.05× 1.40
Nevada Wolf Pack +1.5 70.7% 71.6% 65.4% 1.10× 1.40
Utah Valley Wolverines +10.5 69.7% 66.7% 67.4% 0.99× 1.50
Utah Valley Wolverines +9.5 66.3% 66.7% 64.5% 1.03× 1.50
Nevada Wolf Pack −1.5 63.8% 61.9% 60.8% 1.02× 1.62
Utah Valley Wolverines +8.5 62.7% 61.9% 61.5% 1.01× 1.62
Nevada Wolf Pack −2.5 60.0% 61.9% 57.7% 1.07× 1.62
Utah Valley Wolverines +7.5 59.0% 57.1% 58.7% 0.97× 1.75
Nevada Wolf Pack −3.5 56.2% 57.1% 54.1% 1.05× 1.75
Utah Valley Wolverines +6.5 55.3% 57.1% 55.7% 1.02× 1.75
Nevada Wolf Pack −4.5 52.4% 52.4% 50.7% 1.03× 1.91
Utah Valley Wolverines +5.5 51.5% 52.4% 53.0% 0.99× 1.91
Nevada Wolf Pack −5.5 48.5% 47.6% 47.0% 1.01× 2.10
Utah Valley Wolverines +4.5 47.6% 47.6% 49.3% 0.96× 2.10
Utah Valley Wolverines +3.5 43.8% 42.9% 45.9% 0.94× 2.33
Nevada Wolf Pack −6.5 44.7% 42.9% 44.3% 0.97× 2.33
Nevada Wolf Pack −7.5 41.0% 42.9% 41.3% 1.04× 2.33
Utah Valley Wolverines +2.5 40.0% 38.1% 42.3% 0.90× 2.63
Utah Valley Wolverines +1.5 36.3% 38.1% 39.2% 0.97× 2.63
Nevada Wolf Pack −8.5 37.3% 38.1% 38.5% 0.99× 2.63
Nevada Wolf Pack −9.5 33.7% 33.3% 35.5% 0.94× 3.01
Nevada Wolf Pack −10.5 30.3% 33.3% 32.6% 1.02× 3.01
Utah Valley Wolverines −1.5 29.3% 28.4% 34.6% 0.82× 3.53
Utah Valley Wolverines −2.5 26.1% 28.4% 32.0% 0.89× 3.53
Utah Valley Wolverines −3.5 23.1% 23.5% 29.3% 0.80× 4.25
Nevada Wolf Pack −12.5 24.1% 23.5% 27.6% 0.85× 4.25
Utah Valley Wolverines −4.5 20.3% 23.5% 26.3% 0.89× 4.25
Nevada Wolf Pack −14.5 18.6% 18.9% 22.8% 0.83× 5.29
Utah Valley Wolverines −5.5 17.8% 18.9% 23.6% 0.80× 5.29
Utah Valley Wolverines −6.5 15.4% 18.9% 21.2% 0.89× 5.30
Utah Valley Wolverines −7.5 13.3% 14.1% 19.0% 0.74× 7.09
Nevada Wolf Pack −16.5 14.0% 14.1% 19.3% 0.73× 7.09
Utah Valley Wolverines −8.5 11.4% 14.1% 16.7% 0.85× 7.09
Nevada Wolf Pack −18.5 10.2% 14.1% 16.1% 0.87× 7.09
Utah Valley Wolverines −9.5 9.7% 8.9% 14.7% 0.61× 11.25
Utah Valley Wolverines −10.5 8.1% 8.9% 12.8% 0.69× 11.25
Nevada Wolf Pack −20.5 7.2% 8.9% 13.5% 0.66× 11.25
Utah Valley Wolverines −12.5 5.7% 8.9% 10.1% 0.88× 11.25
Utah Valley Wolverines −14.5 3.8% 2.6% 7.8% 0.33× 38.73
Utah Valley Wolverines −16.5 2.5% 2.6% 6.0% 0.43× 38.73
Utah Valley Wolverines −18.5 1.6% 2.6% 4.6% 0.57× 38.73
Utah Valley Wolverines −20.5 1.0% 2.6% 3.5% 0.75× 38.74
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 highest scoring 79.3% 71.6% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
2nd half highest scoring 77.8% 71.6% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 22.2% 28.4% 27.5% 1.03× 3.53
H1 highest scoring 20.7% 28.4% 29.6% 0.96× 3.53
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack at HT / Nevada Wolf Pack at FT 48.4% 46.6% 48.6% 0.96× 2.15
Utah Valley Wolverines at HT / Utah Valley Wolverines at FT 21.3% 24.4% 25.8% 0.94× 4.10
Utah Valley Wolverines at HT / Nevada Wolf Pack at FT 16.2% 15.5% 12.4% 1.25× 6.47
Nevada Wolf Pack at HT / Utah Valley Wolverines at FT 9.7% 8.3% 9.3% 0.89× 12.08
Level at HT / Nevada Wolf Pack at FT 2.8% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.74
Level at HT / Utah Valley Wolverines at FT 1.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.76
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack to win 67.4% 64.5% 63.2% 1.02× 1.55
Utah Valley Wolverines to win 32.6% 35.5% 36.8% 0.97× 2.82
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.8% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
Utah Valley Wolverines even 50.0% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Nevada Wolf Pack even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Utah Valley Wolverines odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Nevada Wolf Pack odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 48.2% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 92.5% 94.0% 94.2% 1.00× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 7.5% 6.0% 5.8% 1.04× 16.65
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Utah Valley Wolverines over 61.5 85.6% 83.9% 79.3% 1.06× 1.19
Nevada Wolf Pack over 66.5 84.7% 80.7% 78.7% 1.03× 1.24
Nevada Wolf Pack under 86.5 84.7% 80.7% 80.8% 1.00× 1.24
Utah Valley Wolverines under 81.5 84.7% 80.7% 81.2% 0.99× 1.24
Nevada Wolf Pack over 69.5 76.3% 75.1% 69.6% 1.08× 1.33
Nevada Wolf Pack under 83.5 76.2% 75.1% 73.5% 1.02× 1.33
Utah Valley Wolverines over 64.5 77.3% 75.1% 70.7% 1.06× 1.33
Utah Valley Wolverines under 78.5 76.2% 75.1% 73.7% 1.02× 1.33
Utah Valley Wolverines over 66.5 70.5% 70.7% 64.7% 1.09× 1.41
Nevada Wolf Pack over 71.5 69.6% 66.4% 63.7% 1.04× 1.51
Nevada Wolf Pack under 81.5 69.5% 66.4% 67.9% 0.98× 1.51
Utah Valley Wolverines under 76.5 69.3% 66.4% 67.9% 0.98× 1.51
Nevada Wolf Pack over 73.5 62.1% 61.2% 57.4% 1.07× 1.63
Utah Valley Wolverines over 68.5 62.9% 61.2% 58.4% 1.05× 1.63
Nevada Wolf Pack under 79.5 62.0% 61.2% 61.6% 0.99× 1.63
Utah Valley Wolverines under 74.5 61.7% 61.2% 61.7% 0.99× 1.63
Nevada Wolf Pack over 75.5 54.1% 52.3% 51.0% 1.02× 1.91
Nevada Wolf Pack under 77.5 54.0% 52.3% 55.4% 0.94× 1.91
Utah Valley Wolverines over 70.5 54.8% 52.3% 51.4% 1.02× 1.91
Utah Valley Wolverines under 72.5 53.5% 52.3% 55.3% 0.95× 1.91
Nevada Wolf Pack over 76.5 50.1% 52.3% 47.7% 1.10× 1.91
Utah Valley Wolverines over 71.5 50.7% 52.3% 48.2% 1.08× 1.91
Nevada Wolf Pack under 76.5 49.9% 47.7% 52.3% 0.91× 2.09
Utah Valley Wolverines under 71.5 49.3% 47.7% 51.8% 0.92× 2.09
Utah Valley Wolverines over 72.5 46.5% 47.7% 44.7% 1.07× 2.09
Nevada Wolf Pack under 75.5 45.9% 47.7% 49.0% 0.97× 2.09
Nevada Wolf Pack over 77.5 46.0% 47.7% 44.6% 1.07× 2.09
Utah Valley Wolverines under 70.5 45.2% 47.7% 48.7% 0.98× 2.09
Nevada Wolf Pack over 79.5 38.0% 38.8% 38.4% 1.01× 2.58
Utah Valley Wolverines over 74.5 38.3% 38.8% 38.3% 1.01× 2.58
Nevada Wolf Pack under 73.5 37.9% 38.8% 42.6% 0.91× 2.58
Utah Valley Wolverines under 68.5 37.1% 38.8% 41.6% 0.93× 2.58
Nevada Wolf Pack under 71.5 30.4% 33.6% 36.3% 0.93× 2.98
Nevada Wolf Pack over 81.5 30.5% 33.6% 32.1% 1.05× 2.98
Utah Valley Wolverines over 76.5 30.7% 33.6% 32.1% 1.05× 2.98
Utah Valley Wolverines under 66.5 29.5% 29.3% 35.3% 0.83× 3.42
Nevada Wolf Pack under 69.5 23.7% 24.9% 30.4% 0.82× 4.02
Nevada Wolf Pack over 83.5 23.8% 24.9% 26.5% 0.94× 4.02
Utah Valley Wolverines under 64.5 22.7% 24.9% 29.3% 0.85× 4.02
Utah Valley Wolverines over 78.5 23.8% 24.9% 26.3% 0.95× 4.02
Nevada Wolf Pack under 66.5 15.3% 19.3% 21.3% 0.91× 5.18
Nevada Wolf Pack over 86.5 15.3% 19.3% 19.2% 1.01× 5.18
Utah Valley Wolverines over 81.5 15.3% 19.3% 18.8% 1.03× 5.18
Utah Valley Wolverines under 61.5 14.4% 16.1% 20.7% 0.78× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 168.5 points 89.8% 85.0% 86.7% 0.98× 1.18
Over 128.5 points 89.1% 85.0% 84.5% 1.01× 1.18
Under 163.5 points 83.1% 80.6% 80.9% 1.00× 1.24
Over 133.5 points 82.0% 80.6% 76.4% 1.05× 1.24
Under 158.5 points 74.0% 70.8% 73.3% 0.97× 1.41
Over 138.5 points 72.7% 70.8% 67.0% 1.06× 1.41
Under 155.5 points 67.7% 65.9% 68.1% 0.97× 1.52
Over 141.5 points 66.1% 65.9% 60.4% 1.09× 1.52
Under 153.5 points 63.1% 61.5% 64.6% 0.95× 1.63
Over 143.5 points 61.4% 61.5% 56.3% 1.09× 1.63
Under 151.5 points 58.3% 56.5% 60.6% 0.93× 1.77
Over 145.5 points 56.6% 56.5% 51.8% 1.09× 1.77
Under 149.5 points 53.3% 52.3% 56.3% 0.93× 1.91
Over 147.5 points 51.6% 52.3% 47.8% 1.09× 1.91
Under 148.5 points 50.8% 52.3% 54.3% 0.96× 1.91
Over 148.5 points 49.2% 47.7% 45.7% 1.04× 2.10
Under 147.5 points 48.4% 47.7% 52.2% 0.91× 2.10
Over 149.5 points 46.7% 47.7% 43.7% 1.09× 2.10
Under 145.5 points 43.4% 43.5% 48.2% 0.90× 2.30
Over 151.5 points 41.7% 43.5% 39.4% 1.10× 2.30
Under 143.5 points 38.6% 38.5% 43.7% 0.88× 2.60
Over 153.5 points 36.9% 38.5% 35.4% 1.09× 2.60
Under 141.5 points 33.9% 34.1% 39.6% 0.86× 2.93
Over 155.5 points 32.3% 34.1% 31.9% 1.07× 2.93
Under 138.5 points 27.3% 29.2% 33.0% 0.88× 3.43
Over 158.5 points 26.0% 29.2% 26.7% 1.09× 3.43
Under 133.5 points 18.0% 19.4% 23.6% 0.82× 5.15
Over 163.5 points 16.9% 19.4% 19.1% 1.02× 5.15
Under 128.5 points 10.9% 15.0% 15.5% 0.97× 6.69
Over 168.5 points 10.2% 15.0% 13.3% 1.12× 6.69
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack to win both halves 30.7% 31.2% 33.2% 0.94× 3.20
Utah Valley Wolverines to win both halves 10.5% 14.0% 14.5% 0.96× 7.13
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack by 1-5 18.9% 16.8% 16.2% 1.03× 5.97
Nevada Wolf Pack by 6-10 18.2% 16.8% 14.4% 1.16× 5.97
Utah Valley Wolverines by 1-5 14.8% 12.3% 13.2% 0.94× 8.11
Nevada Wolf Pack by 11-15 14.2% 12.3% 11.6% 1.07× 8.11
Utah Valley Wolverines by 6-10 9.6% 7.5% 10.8% 0.69× 13.40
Nevada Wolf Pack by 16-20 8.9% 7.5% 7.6% 0.98× 13.40
Utah Valley Wolverines by 11-15 5.0% 7.5% 6.1% 1.23× 13.41
Nevada Wolf Pack by 21-25 4.5% 2.0% 5.6% 0.36× 49.29
Utah Valley Wolverines by 16-20 2.1% 2.0% 3.3% 0.61× 49.31
Utah Valley Wolverines by 21-25 0.7% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 49.32
Nevada Wolf Pack by 26+ 2.7% 2.0% 7.9% 0.26× 49.30
Utah Valley Wolverines by 26+ 0.3% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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