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Nevada Wolf Pack v Washington State Cougars — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 2 December 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Nevada Wolf Pack win
61.8%
Draw
0.0%
Washington State Cougars win
38.2%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 64.96–61.65 65-62 0% 51% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 283.35
Nevada Wolf Pack to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.36
Nevada Wolf Pack to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
Nevada Wolf Pack to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
Washington State Cougars to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.72× 283.36
Washington State Cougars to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.36
Washington State Cougars to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
Washington State Cougars to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack to win H1 55.0% 57.3% 56.4% 1.01× 1.75
Washington State Cougars to win H1 40.6% 42.7% 39.9% 1.07× 2.34
H1 tied 4.4% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.86
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 48.5 88.6% 87.7% 88.8% 0.99× 1.14
H1 under 72.5 88.0% 87.7% 83.6% 1.05× 1.14
H1 over 52.5 78.9% 77.4% 79.6% 0.97× 1.29
H1 under 68.5 78.3% 77.4% 73.5% 1.05× 1.29
H1 over 55.5 69.3% 67.4% 71.0% 0.95× 1.48
H1 under 65.5 68.6% 67.4% 63.9% 1.06× 1.48
H1 over 57.5 62.0% 62.7% 64.8% 0.97× 1.59
H1 under 63.5 61.3% 62.7% 57.1% 1.10× 1.59
H1 over 59.5 54.3% 52.6% 57.8% 0.91× 1.90
H1 under 61.5 53.6% 52.6% 49.8% 1.06× 1.90
H1 over 60.5 50.3% 52.6% 53.9% 0.98× 1.90
H1 under 60.5 49.7% 47.4% 46.1% 1.03× 2.11
H1 over 61.5 46.4% 47.4% 50.2% 0.94× 2.11
H1 under 59.5 45.7% 47.4% 42.2% 1.12× 2.11
H1 under 57.5 38.0% 37.3% 35.2% 1.06× 2.68
H1 over 63.5 38.7% 37.3% 42.9% 0.87× 2.68
H1 over 65.5 31.4% 32.6% 36.1% 0.90× 3.07
H1 under 55.5 30.7% 32.6% 29.0% 1.12× 3.07
H1 under 52.5 21.1% 22.6% 20.4% 1.11× 4.43
H1 over 68.5 21.7% 22.6% 26.5% 0.85× 4.43
H1 over 72.5 12.0% 12.3% 16.4% 0.75× 8.14
H1 under 48.5 11.4% 12.3% 11.2% 1.10× 8.14
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack to win H2 55.5% 55.0% 56.0% 0.98× 1.82
Washington State Cougars to win H2 40.2% 43.5% 40.6% 1.07× 2.30
H2 tied 4.3% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.35
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 78.5 87.4% 85.2% 80.1% 1.06× 1.17
H2 over 54.5 87.0% 85.2% 88.0% 0.97× 1.17
H2 under 74.5 77.9% 75.8% 69.9% 1.08× 1.32
H2 over 58.5 77.2% 75.8% 79.6% 0.95× 1.32
H2 under 71.5 68.7% 66.4% 61.1% 1.09× 1.51
H2 over 61.5 67.7% 66.4% 71.3% 0.93× 1.51
H2 under 69.5 61.7% 61.6% 54.8% 1.12× 1.62
H2 over 63.5 60.6% 61.6% 65.3% 0.94× 1.62
H2 under 67.5 54.4% 52.4% 47.9% 1.09× 1.91
H2 over 65.5 53.2% 52.4% 58.8% 0.89× 1.91
H2 under 66.5 50.6% 52.4% 44.6% 1.17× 1.91
H2 over 66.5 49.4% 47.6% 55.4% 0.86× 2.10
H2 under 65.5 46.8% 47.6% 41.2% 1.16× 2.10
H2 over 67.5 45.6% 47.6% 52.1% 0.91× 2.10
H2 under 63.5 39.4% 38.4% 34.7% 1.11× 2.61
H2 over 69.5 38.3% 38.4% 45.2% 0.85× 2.61
H2 under 61.5 32.3% 33.6% 28.7% 1.17× 2.97
H2 over 71.5 31.3% 33.6% 38.9% 0.87× 2.97
H2 under 58.5 22.8% 24.2% 20.4% 1.19× 4.13
H2 over 74.5 22.1% 24.2% 30.1% 0.81× 4.13
H2 under 54.5 13.0% 14.8% 12.0% 1.23× 6.76
H2 over 78.5 12.6% 14.8% 19.9% 0.74× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack leading at half time 55.0% 56.9% 56.4% 1.01× 1.76
Washington State Cougars leading at half time 40.6% 42.8% 39.9% 1.07× 2.34
Level at half time 4.4% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.40
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack +16.5 96.1% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
Nevada Wolf Pack +18.5 97.4% 97.4% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
Nevada Wolf Pack +20.5 98.3% 97.4% 92.7% 1.05× 1.03
Nevada Wolf Pack +14.5 94.3% 91.1% 86.7% 1.05× 1.10
Washington State Cougars +20.5 93.8% 91.1% 82.0% 1.11× 1.10
Nevada Wolf Pack +12.5 91.9% 91.1% 83.8% 1.09× 1.10
Washington State Cougars +18.5 91.3% 91.1% 79.3% 1.15× 1.10
Nevada Wolf Pack +10.5 88.8% 85.9% 80.4% 1.07× 1.16
Nevada Wolf Pack +9.5 86.9% 85.9% 78.7% 1.09× 1.16
Washington State Cougars +16.5 88.0% 85.9% 75.7% 1.13× 1.16
Nevada Wolf Pack +8.5 84.9% 81.1% 76.5% 1.06× 1.23
Washington State Cougars +14.5 83.9% 81.1% 72.1% 1.12× 1.23
Nevada Wolf Pack +7.5 82.7% 81.1% 74.5% 1.09× 1.23
Nevada Wolf Pack +6.5 80.3% 81.1% 72.3% 1.12× 1.23
Washington State Cougars +12.5 79.0% 76.5% 67.9% 1.13× 1.31
Nevada Wolf Pack +5.5 77.6% 76.5% 70.1% 1.09× 1.31
Nevada Wolf Pack +4.5 74.8% 71.6% 67.8% 1.06× 1.40
Washington State Cougars +10.5 73.4% 71.6% 63.2% 1.13× 1.40
Nevada Wolf Pack +3.5 71.8% 71.6% 65.7% 1.09× 1.40
Washington State Cougars +9.5 70.3% 71.6% 60.7% 1.18× 1.40
Nevada Wolf Pack +2.5 68.6% 66.7% 63.3% 1.05× 1.50
Washington State Cougars +8.5 67.0% 66.7% 58.0% 1.15× 1.50
Nevada Wolf Pack +1.5 65.3% 66.7% 61.2% 1.09× 1.50
Washington State Cougars +7.5 63.7% 61.9% 55.2% 1.12× 1.62
Washington State Cougars +6.5 60.1% 61.9% 52.4% 1.18× 1.62
Nevada Wolf Pack −1.5 58.2% 57.1% 58.7% 0.97× 1.75
Washington State Cougars +5.5 56.5% 57.1% 50.3% 1.13× 1.75
Nevada Wolf Pack −2.5 54.5% 52.4% 56.7% 0.92× 1.91
Washington State Cougars +4.5 52.9% 52.4% 47.8% 1.10× 1.91
Nevada Wolf Pack −3.5 50.8% 52.4% 54.2% 0.97× 1.91
Washington State Cougars +3.5 49.2% 47.6% 45.8% 1.04× 2.10
Nevada Wolf Pack −4.5 47.1% 47.6% 52.2% 0.91× 2.10
Washington State Cougars +2.5 45.5% 47.6% 43.3% 1.10× 2.10
Nevada Wolf Pack −5.5 43.5% 42.9% 49.7% 0.86× 2.33
Washington State Cougars +1.5 41.8% 42.9% 41.3% 1.04× 2.33
Nevada Wolf Pack −6.5 39.9% 38.1% 47.6% 0.80× 2.63
Nevada Wolf Pack −7.5 36.3% 38.1% 44.8% 0.85× 2.63
Washington State Cougars −1.5 34.7% 33.3% 38.8% 0.86× 3.01
Nevada Wolf Pack −8.5 33.0% 33.3% 42.0% 0.79× 3.01
Washington State Cougars −2.5 31.4% 33.3% 36.7% 0.91× 3.01
Nevada Wolf Pack −9.5 29.7% 28.4% 39.3% 0.72× 3.53
Washington State Cougars −3.5 28.2% 28.4% 34.3% 0.83× 3.53
Nevada Wolf Pack −10.5 26.6% 28.4% 36.8% 0.77× 3.53
Washington State Cougars −4.5 25.2% 28.4% 32.2% 0.88× 3.53
Washington State Cougars −5.5 22.4% 23.5% 29.9% 0.79× 4.25
Nevada Wolf Pack −12.5 21.0% 23.5% 32.1% 0.73× 4.25
Washington State Cougars −6.5 19.8% 18.9% 27.7% 0.68× 5.29
Washington State Cougars −7.5 17.3% 18.9% 25.5% 0.74× 5.29
Nevada Wolf Pack −14.5 16.1% 18.9% 27.9% 0.68× 5.30
Washington State Cougars −8.5 15.1% 18.9% 23.5% 0.80× 5.30
Washington State Cougars −9.5 13.1% 14.1% 21.3% 0.66× 7.09
Nevada Wolf Pack −16.5 12.0% 14.1% 24.3% 0.58× 7.09
Washington State Cougars −10.5 11.2% 14.1% 19.6% 0.72× 7.09
Washington State Cougars −12.5 8.1% 8.9% 16.2% 0.55× 11.25
Nevada Wolf Pack −18.5 8.7% 8.9% 20.7% 0.43× 11.25
Nevada Wolf Pack −20.5 6.2% 8.9% 18.0% 0.49× 11.25
Washington State Cougars −14.5 5.7% 8.9% 13.3% 0.67× 11.25
Washington State Cougars −16.5 3.9% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.73
Washington State Cougars −18.5 2.6% 2.6% 8.9% 0.29× 38.73
Washington State Cougars −20.5 1.7% 2.6% 7.3% 0.35× 38.73
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 71.5% 67.1% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
1st half highest scoring 28.5% 32.9% 33.3% 0.99× 3.04
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 highest scoring 34.2% 31.9% 31.2% 1.02× 3.14
Q3 highest scoring 32.4% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q1 highest scoring 17.4% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
Q2 highest scoring 15.9% 18.3% 17.9% 1.02× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack at HT / Nevada Wolf Pack at FT 44.2% 41.0% 48.3% 0.85× 2.44
Washington State Cougars at HT / Washington State Cougars at FT 25.6% 29.6% 30.1% 0.98× 3.38
Washington State Cougars at HT / Nevada Wolf Pack at FT 15.0% 12.2% 9.8% 1.25× 8.17
Nevada Wolf Pack at HT / Washington State Cougars at FT 10.8% 12.2% 8.2% 1.49× 8.18
Level at HT / Nevada Wolf Pack at FT 2.6% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.75
Level at HT / Washington State Cougars at FT 1.8% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.76
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack to win 61.9% 60.6% 59.9% 1.01× 1.65
Washington State Cougars to win 38.2% 39.4% 40.1% 0.98× 2.54
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.8% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
Nevada Wolf Pack even 50.0% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
Washington State Cougars even 50.1% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Nevada Wolf Pack odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
Washington State Cougars odd 49.9% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 48.2% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 94.0% 94.0% 95.6% 0.98× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 6.0% 6.0% 4.4% 1.35× 16.66
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack to win Q1 51.9% 52.6% 54.7% 0.96× 1.90
Washington State Cougars to win Q1 42.1% 42.9% 40.4% 1.06× 2.33
Q1 tied 6.1% 5.5% 4.9% 1.11× 18.31
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 22.5 88.2% 87.4% 88.8% 0.98× 1.14
Q1 under 38.5 88.3% 87.4% 84.8% 1.03× 1.14
Q1 under 35.5 77.2% 76.9% 73.2% 1.05× 1.30
Q1 over 25.5 76.9% 76.9% 77.6% 0.99× 1.30
Q1 under 33.5 67.4% 67.6% 64.0% 1.06× 1.48
Q1 over 27.5 67.0% 67.6% 67.7% 1.00× 1.48
Q1 under 31.5 56.1% 58.6% 54.0% 1.09× 1.71
Q1 over 29.5 55.7% 58.6% 56.9% 1.03× 1.71
Q1 under 30.5 50.2% 52.7% 48.8% 1.08× 1.90
Q1 over 30.5 49.8% 47.3% 51.2% 0.92× 2.11
Q1 under 29.5 44.3% 41.4% 43.1% 0.96× 2.42
Q1 over 31.5 43.9% 41.4% 46.0% 0.90× 2.42
Q1 under 27.5 33.0% 32.4% 32.3% 1.00× 3.08
Q1 over 33.5 32.6% 32.4% 36.0% 0.90× 3.08
Q1 under 25.5 23.1% 23.1% 22.4% 1.03× 4.33
Q1 over 35.5 22.8% 23.1% 26.8% 0.86× 4.33
Q1 under 22.5 11.8% 12.6% 11.2% 1.12× 7.95
Q1 over 38.5 11.7% 12.6% 15.2% 0.83× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack to win Q2 51.8% 51.4% 52.9% 0.97× 1.95
Washington State Cougars to win Q2 42.3% 43.9% 41.5% 1.06× 2.28
Q2 tied 6.0% 6.1% 5.7% 1.07× 16.49
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 38.5 89.2% 87.3% 85.6% 1.02× 1.15
Q2 over 22.5 87.2% 87.3% 87.4% 1.00× 1.15
Q2 under 35.5 78.6% 76.8% 74.6% 1.03× 1.30
Q2 over 25.5 75.5% 76.8% 76.2% 1.01× 1.30
Q2 under 33.5 69.0% 67.4% 65.6% 1.03× 1.48
Q2 over 27.5 65.2% 67.4% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
Q2 under 31.5 58.0% 58.2% 55.7% 1.04× 1.72
Q2 over 29.5 53.8% 52.7% 55.8% 0.94× 1.90
Q2 under 30.5 52.1% 52.7% 50.1% 1.05× 1.90
Q2 over 30.5 47.9% 47.3% 49.9% 0.95× 2.11
Q2 under 29.5 46.2% 47.3% 44.2% 1.07× 2.11
Q2 over 31.5 42.0% 41.8% 44.3% 0.94× 2.39
Q2 under 27.5 34.8% 32.6% 33.3% 0.98× 3.06
Q2 over 33.5 31.0% 32.6% 34.4% 0.95× 3.06
Q2 under 25.5 24.5% 23.2% 23.8% 0.98× 4.31
Q2 over 35.5 21.4% 23.2% 25.4% 0.91× 4.31
Q2 under 22.5 12.8% 12.7% 12.6% 1.01× 7.89
Q2 over 38.5 10.8% 12.7% 14.4% 0.88× 7.90
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack to win Q3 52.2% 52.7% 53.3% 0.99× 1.90
Washington State Cougars to win Q3 41.9% 42.3% 41.8% 1.01× 2.37
Q3 tied 5.9% 5.3% 4.9% 1.07× 18.96
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 41.5 88.5% 87.2% 85.1% 1.03× 1.15
Q3 over 25.5 86.6% 87.2% 86.9% 1.00× 1.15
Q3 under 38.5 77.9% 77.3% 73.9% 1.05× 1.29
Q3 over 28.5 74.9% 71.8% 76.4% 0.94× 1.39
Q3 under 36.5 68.5% 67.8% 64.6% 1.05× 1.48
Q3 over 30.5 64.9% 62.0% 66.8% 0.93× 1.61
Q3 under 34.5 57.7% 58.4% 54.6% 1.07× 1.71
Q3 over 32.5 53.7% 52.3% 56.1% 0.93× 1.91
Q3 under 33.5 52.0% 52.3% 49.1% 1.07× 1.91
Q3 over 33.5 48.0% 47.7% 50.9% 0.94× 2.10
Q3 under 32.5 46.3% 47.7% 43.9% 1.09× 2.10
Q3 over 34.5 42.3% 41.6% 45.4% 0.92× 2.40
Q3 under 30.5 35.1% 38.0% 33.2% 1.15× 2.63
Q3 over 36.5 31.5% 32.2% 35.4% 0.91× 3.11
Q3 under 28.5 25.1% 28.2% 23.6% 1.19× 3.55
Q3 over 38.5 22.1% 22.7% 26.1% 0.87× 4.40
Q3 under 25.5 13.4% 12.8% 13.1% 0.98× 7.83
Q3 over 41.5 11.5% 12.8% 14.9% 0.86× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack to win Q4 52.2% 51.4% 52.8% 0.97× 1.95
Washington State Cougars to win Q4 42.0% 43.1% 41.5% 1.04× 2.32
Q4 tied 5.8% 5.8% 5.7% 1.02× 17.25
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 41.5 87.0% 85.6% 83.6% 1.02× 1.17
Q4 over 25.5 85.4% 85.6% 86.1% 0.99× 1.17
Q4 under 38.5 76.4% 76.9% 73.1% 1.05× 1.30
Q4 over 28.5 74.0% 71.5% 75.1% 0.95× 1.40
Q4 under 36.5 67.2% 67.4% 64.3% 1.05× 1.48
Q4 over 30.5 64.4% 61.4% 66.3% 0.93× 1.63
Q4 under 34.5 56.9% 58.4% 54.4% 1.07× 1.71
Q4 over 32.5 53.9% 52.5% 55.4% 0.95× 1.91
Q4 under 33.5 51.5% 52.5% 49.6% 1.06× 1.91
Q4 over 33.5 48.5% 47.5% 50.4% 0.94× 2.11
Q4 under 32.5 46.1% 47.5% 44.6% 1.07× 2.11
Q4 over 34.5 43.1% 41.6% 45.6% 0.91× 2.40
Q4 under 30.5 35.6% 38.6% 33.7% 1.14× 2.59
Q4 over 36.5 32.8% 32.6% 35.7% 0.91× 3.07
Q4 under 28.5 26.0% 28.5% 24.9% 1.14× 3.51
Q4 over 38.5 23.6% 23.1% 26.9% 0.86× 4.33
Q4 under 25.5 14.6% 14.4% 13.9% 1.04× 6.95
Q4 over 41.5 13.0% 14.4% 16.4% 0.88× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Washington State Cougars under 72.5 87.7% 83.9% 78.2% 1.07× 1.19
Nevada Wolf Pack under 75.5 86.1% 83.9% 73.2% 1.15× 1.19
Nevada Wolf Pack over 55.5 84.4% 80.7% 81.6% 0.99× 1.24
Washington State Cougars over 52.5 84.3% 80.7% 78.5% 1.03× 1.24
Washington State Cougars under 69.5 79.9% 75.1% 71.2% 1.05× 1.33
Nevada Wolf Pack under 72.5 77.9% 75.1% 65.7% 1.14× 1.33
Nevada Wolf Pack over 58.5 75.7% 75.1% 74.7% 1.01× 1.33
Washington State Cougars over 55.5 75.0% 75.1% 70.8% 1.06× 1.33
Washington State Cougars under 67.5 73.3% 70.7% 65.6% 1.08× 1.41
Nevada Wolf Pack under 70.5 71.3% 70.7% 60.3% 1.17× 1.41
Nevada Wolf Pack over 60.5 68.6% 66.4% 69.5% 0.96× 1.51
Washington State Cougars over 57.5 67.6% 66.4% 65.1% 1.02× 1.51
Washington State Cougars under 65.5 65.8% 66.4% 59.8% 1.11× 1.51
Nevada Wolf Pack under 68.5 63.7% 61.2% 54.4% 1.12× 1.63
Nevada Wolf Pack over 62.5 60.9% 61.2% 64.3% 0.95× 1.63
Washington State Cougars over 59.5 59.5% 57.1% 58.8% 0.97× 1.75
Washington State Cougars under 63.5 57.6% 57.1% 53.9% 1.06× 1.75
Nevada Wolf Pack under 66.5 55.7% 57.1% 48.2% 1.19× 1.75
Nevada Wolf Pack over 64.5 52.7% 52.3% 58.4% 0.89× 1.91
Nevada Wolf Pack under 65.5 51.5% 52.3% 44.7% 1.17× 1.91
Washington State Cougars under 62.5 53.4% 52.3% 51.0% 1.03× 1.91
Washington State Cougars over 61.5 50.9% 52.3% 52.1% 1.00× 1.91
Washington State Cougars under 61.5 49.1% 47.7% 47.9% 1.00× 2.09
Nevada Wolf Pack under 64.5 47.3% 47.7% 41.6% 1.15× 2.09
Nevada Wolf Pack over 65.5 48.5% 47.7% 55.3% 0.86× 2.09
Washington State Cougars over 62.5 46.6% 47.7% 49.0% 0.97× 2.09
Nevada Wolf Pack over 66.5 44.3% 42.9% 51.8% 0.83× 2.33
Washington State Cougars over 63.5 42.4% 42.9% 46.1% 0.93× 2.33
Washington State Cougars under 59.5 40.5% 42.9% 41.2% 1.04× 2.33
Nevada Wolf Pack under 62.5 39.1% 38.8% 35.7% 1.09× 2.58
Nevada Wolf Pack over 68.5 36.3% 38.8% 45.6% 0.85× 2.58
Washington State Cougars over 65.5 34.2% 33.6% 40.2% 0.84× 2.98
Washington State Cougars under 57.5 32.4% 33.6% 34.9% 0.96× 2.98
Nevada Wolf Pack under 60.5 31.4% 33.6% 30.5% 1.10× 2.98
Nevada Wolf Pack over 70.5 28.7% 29.3% 39.7% 0.74× 3.42
Washington State Cougars over 67.5 26.7% 29.3% 34.4% 0.85× 3.42
Nevada Wolf Pack under 58.5 24.3% 24.9% 25.3% 0.98× 4.02
Washington State Cougars under 55.5 25.0% 24.9% 29.2% 0.85× 4.02
Nevada Wolf Pack over 72.5 22.1% 24.9% 34.3% 0.72× 4.02
Washington State Cougars over 69.5 20.1% 24.9% 28.8% 0.86× 4.02
Nevada Wolf Pack under 55.5 15.6% 19.3% 18.5% 1.05× 5.18
Washington State Cougars under 52.5 15.7% 19.3% 21.5% 0.90× 5.18
Nevada Wolf Pack over 75.5 13.9% 16.1% 26.8% 0.60× 6.21
Washington State Cougars over 72.5 12.3% 16.1% 21.8% 0.74× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 147.5 points 91.6% 88.8% 82.3% 1.08× 1.13
Over 107.5 points 90.7% 88.8% 90.2% 0.99× 1.13
Under 142.5 points 85.1% 85.0% 75.1% 1.13× 1.18
Over 112.5 points 83.5% 80.6% 83.6% 0.96× 1.24
Under 137.5 points 76.2% 75.6% 66.2% 1.14× 1.32
Over 117.5 points 73.6% 70.8% 75.3% 0.94× 1.41
Under 134.5 points 69.5% 65.9% 60.2% 1.10× 1.52
Over 120.5 points 66.6% 65.9% 69.8% 0.94× 1.52
Under 132.5 points 64.7% 61.5% 56.0% 1.10× 1.63
Over 122.5 points 61.5% 61.5% 65.6% 0.94× 1.63
Under 130.5 points 59.6% 56.5% 51.7% 1.09× 1.77
Over 124.5 points 56.3% 56.5% 61.5% 0.92× 1.77
Under 128.5 points 54.4% 52.3% 47.2% 1.11× 1.91
Under 127.5 points 51.8% 52.3% 44.9% 1.17× 1.91
Over 126.5 points 51.0% 52.3% 57.4% 0.91× 1.91
Under 126.5 points 49.0% 47.7% 42.6% 1.12× 2.10
Over 127.5 points 48.2% 47.7% 55.1% 0.87× 2.10
Over 128.5 points 45.6% 47.7% 52.8% 0.90× 2.10
Under 124.5 points 43.7% 43.5% 38.5% 1.13× 2.30
Over 130.5 points 40.4% 43.5% 48.3% 0.90× 2.30
Under 122.5 points 38.5% 38.5% 34.4% 1.12× 2.60
Over 132.5 points 35.3% 38.5% 44.0% 0.87× 2.60
Under 120.5 points 33.4% 34.1% 30.2% 1.13× 2.93
Over 134.5 points 30.5% 34.1% 39.8% 0.86× 2.93
Under 117.5 points 26.4% 29.2% 24.7% 1.18× 3.43
Over 137.5 points 23.8% 24.4% 33.8% 0.72× 4.10
Under 112.5 points 16.5% 19.4% 16.4% 1.19× 5.15
Over 142.5 points 14.9% 15.0% 24.9% 0.60× 6.68
Under 107.5 points 9.3% 11.2% 9.8% 1.14× 8.96
Over 147.5 points 8.4% 11.2% 17.7% 0.63× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack to win both halves 27.6% 27.2% 36.0% 0.75× 3.68
Washington State Cougars to win both halves 13.6% 14.1% 20.4% 0.69× 7.12
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nevada Wolf Pack by 1-5 18.4% 16.8% 10.2% 1.64× 5.97
Nevada Wolf Pack by 6-10 16.8% 16.8% 12.9% 1.30× 5.97
Washington State Cougars by 1-5 15.8% 16.8% 10.2% 1.65× 5.97
Nevada Wolf Pack by 11-15 12.7% 12.3% 10.8% 1.14× 8.11
Washington State Cougars by 6-10 11.2% 12.3% 10.3% 1.20× 8.11
Nevada Wolf Pack by 16-20 7.8% 7.5% 8.0% 0.93× 13.40
Washington State Cougars by 11-15 6.5% 7.5% 7.6% 0.98× 13.40
Nevada Wolf Pack by 21-25 3.9% 2.0% 5.4% 0.38× 49.29
Washington State Cougars by 16-20 3.1% 2.0% 4.8% 0.43× 49.30
Washington State Cougars by 21-25 1.2% 2.0% 2.7% 0.76× 49.32
Nevada Wolf Pack by 26+ 2.3% 2.0% 12.6% 0.16× 49.31
Washington State Cougars by 26+ 0.5% 2.0% 4.6% 0.44× 49.32
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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