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Oklahoma Sooners v Pittsburgh Panthers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 24 November 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Oklahoma Sooners win
83.3%
Draw
0.0%
Pittsburgh Panthers win
16.7%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 79.37–69.34 79-69 0% 51% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma Sooners to score 100+ 2.0% 0.4% 3.4% 0.10× 282.97
Oklahoma Sooners to score 110+ 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.34
Oklahoma Sooners to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.36
Oklahoma Sooners to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
Pittsburgh Panthers to score 100+ 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 283.34
Pittsburgh Panthers to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.36
Pittsburgh Panthers to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
Pittsburgh Panthers to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.35
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma Sooners to win H1 69.3% 68.3% 57.9% 1.18× 1.46
Oklahoma Sooners to win H1 69.2% 68.3% 57.9% 1.18× 1.46
Pittsburgh Panthers to win H1 26.8% 26.5% 38.2% 0.69× 3.77
Pittsburgh Panthers to win H1 26.9% 26.5% 38.2% 0.69× 3.77
H1 tied 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 tied 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 82.5 87.4% 87.7% 88.9% 0.99× 1.14
H1 over 58.5 86.7% 87.7% 83.3% 1.05× 1.14
H1 under 78.5 78.6% 77.4% 80.7% 0.96× 1.29
H1 over 62.5 77.7% 77.4% 72.0% 1.08× 1.29
H1 over 62.5 77.0% 77.4% 72.0% 1.08× 1.29
H1 under 78.5 77.9% 77.4% 80.7% 0.96× 1.29
H1 under 75.5 69.2% 67.4% 72.8% 0.93× 1.48
H1 over 65.5 68.1% 67.4% 61.9% 1.09× 1.48
H1 under 75.5 68.6% 67.4% 72.8% 0.93× 1.48
H1 over 65.5 67.5% 67.4% 61.9% 1.09× 1.48
H1 over 67.5 60.9% 62.7% 54.4% 1.15× 1.59
H1 under 73.5 62.1% 62.7% 66.6% 0.94× 1.59
H1 under 73.5 61.7% 62.7% 66.6% 0.94× 1.59
H1 over 67.5 60.5% 62.7% 54.4% 1.15× 1.59
H1 under 71.5 54.5% 52.6% 60.0% 0.88× 1.90
H1 under 71.5 54.4% 52.6% 60.0% 0.88× 1.90
H1 over 69.5 53.2% 52.6% 46.9% 1.12× 1.90
H1 over 69.5 53.1% 52.6% 46.9% 1.12× 1.90
H1 under 70.5 50.6% 52.6% 56.5% 0.93× 1.90
H1 under 70.5 50.6% 52.6% 56.5% 0.93× 1.90
H1 over 70.5 49.4% 47.4% 43.5% 1.09× 2.11
H1 over 70.5 49.4% 47.4% 43.5% 1.09× 2.11
H1 under 69.5 46.8% 47.4% 53.1% 0.89× 2.11
H1 under 69.5 46.9% 47.4% 53.1% 0.89× 2.11
H1 over 71.5 45.5% 47.4% 40.0% 1.19× 2.11
H1 over 71.5 45.6% 47.4% 40.0% 1.19× 2.11
H1 under 67.5 39.5% 37.3% 45.6% 0.82× 2.68
H1 under 67.5 39.1% 37.3% 45.6% 0.82× 2.68
H1 over 73.5 37.9% 37.3% 33.4% 1.12× 2.68
H1 over 73.5 38.3% 37.3% 33.4% 1.12× 2.68
H1 under 65.5 32.5% 32.6% 38.1% 0.86× 3.07
H1 under 65.5 31.9% 32.6% 38.1% 0.86× 3.07
H1 over 75.5 31.4% 32.6% 27.2% 1.20× 3.07
H1 over 75.5 30.8% 32.6% 27.2% 1.20× 3.07
H1 under 62.5 22.3% 22.6% 28.0% 0.80× 4.43
H1 under 62.5 23.0% 22.6% 28.0% 0.80× 4.43
H1 over 78.5 22.1% 22.6% 19.3% 1.17× 4.43
H1 over 78.5 21.4% 22.6% 19.3% 1.17× 4.43
H1 under 58.5 13.3% 12.3% 16.7% 0.74× 8.14
H1 over 82.5 12.6% 12.3% 11.1% 1.10× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma Sooners to win H2 70.7% 67.6% 56.9% 1.19× 1.48
Oklahoma Sooners to win H2 70.7% 67.6% 57.5% 1.18× 1.48
Pittsburgh Panthers to win H2 25.6% 31.3% 38.9% 0.80× 3.20
Pittsburgh Panthers to win H2 25.6% 31.3% 38.5% 0.81× 3.20
H2 tied 3.7% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.36
H2 tied 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.36
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 90.5 85.9% 85.2% 83.6% 1.02× 1.17
H2 over 66.5 85.5% 85.2% 82.3% 1.03× 1.17
H2 over 70.5 76.5% 75.8% 69.8% 1.09× 1.32
H2 under 86.5 77.0% 75.8% 79.3% 0.96× 1.32
H2 over 70.5 75.8% 75.8% 71.9% 1.05× 1.32
H2 under 86.5 76.4% 75.8% 75.7% 1.00× 1.32
H2 over 73.5 67.3% 66.4% 60.4% 1.10× 1.51
H2 under 83.5 67.9% 66.4% 71.6% 0.93× 1.51
H2 under 83.5 67.5% 66.4% 68.0% 0.98× 1.51
H2 over 73.5 66.8% 66.4% 63.1% 1.05× 1.51
H2 under 81.5 61.2% 61.6% 65.8% 0.94× 1.62
H2 over 75.5 60.4% 61.6% 53.4% 1.15× 1.62
H2 over 75.5 60.2% 61.6% 56.4% 1.09× 1.62
H2 under 81.5 60.8% 61.6% 62.2% 0.99× 1.62
H2 under 79.5 54.0% 52.4% 59.8% 0.88× 1.91
H2 under 79.5 53.9% 52.4% 56.2% 0.93× 1.91
H2 over 77.5 53.3% 52.4% 47.0% 1.12× 1.91
H2 over 77.5 53.2% 52.4% 50.2% 1.04× 1.91
H2 under 78.5 50.4% 52.4% 56.4% 0.93× 1.91
H2 under 78.5 50.4% 52.4% 53.0% 0.99× 1.91
H2 over 78.5 49.6% 47.6% 43.6% 1.09× 2.10
H2 over 78.5 49.6% 47.6% 47.0% 1.01× 2.10
H2 under 77.5 46.7% 47.6% 53.0% 0.90× 2.10
H2 under 77.5 46.8% 47.6% 49.8% 0.96× 2.10
H2 over 79.5 46.0% 47.6% 40.3% 1.18× 2.10
H2 over 79.5 46.1% 47.6% 43.8% 1.09× 2.10
H2 under 75.5 39.6% 38.4% 46.6% 0.82× 2.61
H2 under 75.5 39.9% 38.4% 43.6% 0.88× 2.61
H2 over 81.5 39.2% 38.4% 37.8% 1.02× 2.61
H2 over 81.5 38.8% 38.4% 34.2% 1.12× 2.61
H2 under 73.5 33.2% 33.6% 36.9% 0.91× 2.97
H2 under 73.5 32.7% 33.6% 39.6% 0.85× 2.97
H2 over 83.5 32.1% 33.6% 28.4% 1.18× 2.97
H2 over 83.5 32.5% 33.6% 32.0% 1.05× 2.97
H2 under 70.5 24.2% 24.2% 28.1% 0.86× 4.13
H2 over 86.5 23.6% 24.2% 24.3% 1.00× 4.13
H2 under 70.5 23.5% 24.2% 30.2% 0.80× 4.13
H2 over 86.5 23.0% 24.2% 20.7% 1.17× 4.13
H2 under 66.5 14.5% 14.8% 17.7% 0.84× 6.76
H2 over 90.5 14.2% 14.8% 16.4% 0.90× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma Sooners leading at half time 69.2% 68.5% 57.9% 1.18× 1.46
Pittsburgh Panthers leading at half time 26.9% 26.5% 38.2% 0.69× 3.78
Level at half time 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma Sooners +18.5 99.6% 97.4% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
Oklahoma Sooners +20.5 99.8% 97.4% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
Oklahoma Sooners +8.5 95.7% 97.4% 83.3% 1.17× 1.03
Oklahoma Sooners +9.5 96.5% 97.4% 85.3% 1.14× 1.03
Oklahoma Sooners +10.5 97.1% 97.4% 87.2% 1.12× 1.03
Oklahoma Sooners +12.5 98.2% 97.4% 89.9% 1.08× 1.03
Oklahoma Sooners +14.5 98.9% 97.4% 92.2% 1.06× 1.03
Oklahoma Sooners +16.5 99.3% 97.4% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
Oklahoma Sooners +7.5 94.8% 91.1% 81.0% 1.13× 1.10
Oklahoma Sooners +5.5 92.4% 91.1% 76.4% 1.19× 1.10
Oklahoma Sooners +6.5 93.7% 91.1% 78.8% 1.16× 1.10
Oklahoma Sooners +4.5 91.0% 91.1% 73.7% 1.24× 1.10
Oklahoma Sooners +3.5 89.4% 85.9% 70.8% 1.21× 1.16
Oklahoma Sooners +2.5 87.5% 85.9% 68.0% 1.26× 1.16
Oklahoma Sooners +1.5 85.5% 85.9% 65.4% 1.31× 1.16
Pittsburgh Panthers +20.5 83.2% 81.1% 86.5% 0.94× 1.23
Oklahoma Sooners −1.5 80.6% 81.1% 60.8% 1.33× 1.23
Pittsburgh Panthers +18.5 78.0% 76.5% 83.9% 0.91× 1.31
Oklahoma Sooners −2.5 77.7% 76.5% 57.7% 1.33× 1.31
Oklahoma Sooners −3.5 74.6% 71.6% 54.1% 1.32× 1.40
Oklahoma Sooners −4.5 71.4% 71.6% 50.7% 1.41× 1.40
Pittsburgh Panthers +16.5 72.1% 71.6% 80.7% 0.89× 1.40
Oklahoma Sooners −5.5 68.0% 66.7% 47.0% 1.42× 1.50
Pittsburgh Panthers +14.5 65.4% 66.7% 77.2% 0.86× 1.50
Oklahoma Sooners −6.5 64.4% 61.9% 44.3% 1.40× 1.62
Oklahoma Sooners −7.5 60.7% 61.9% 41.3% 1.50× 1.62
Pittsburgh Panthers +12.5 58.1% 57.1% 72.4% 0.79× 1.75
Oklahoma Sooners −8.5 57.0% 57.1% 38.5% 1.48× 1.75
Oklahoma Sooners −9.5 53.2% 52.4% 35.5% 1.48× 1.91
Pittsburgh Panthers +10.5 50.6% 52.4% 67.4% 0.78× 1.91
Oklahoma Sooners −10.5 49.4% 47.6% 32.6% 1.46× 2.10
Pittsburgh Panthers +9.5 46.8% 47.6% 64.5% 0.74× 2.10
Pittsburgh Panthers +8.5 43.0% 42.9% 61.5% 0.70× 2.33
Oklahoma Sooners −12.5 41.9% 42.9% 27.6% 1.56× 2.33
Pittsburgh Panthers +7.5 39.3% 38.1% 58.7% 0.65× 2.63
Pittsburgh Panthers +6.5 35.6% 38.1% 55.7% 0.68× 2.63
Oklahoma Sooners −14.5 34.6% 33.3% 22.8% 1.46× 3.01
Pittsburgh Panthers +5.5 32.0% 33.3% 53.0% 0.63× 3.01
Pittsburgh Panthers +4.5 28.6% 28.4% 49.3% 0.57× 3.53
Oklahoma Sooners −16.5 27.9% 28.4% 19.3% 1.47× 3.53
Pittsburgh Panthers +3.5 25.4% 28.4% 45.9% 0.62× 3.53
Oklahoma Sooners −18.5 22.0% 23.5% 16.1% 1.46× 4.25
Pittsburgh Panthers +2.5 22.3% 23.5% 42.3% 0.56× 4.25
Pittsburgh Panthers +1.5 19.4% 18.9% 39.2% 0.48× 5.29
Oklahoma Sooners −20.5 16.8% 18.9% 13.5% 1.40× 5.29
Pittsburgh Panthers −1.5 14.5% 14.1% 34.6% 0.41× 7.09
Pittsburgh Panthers −2.5 12.5% 14.1% 32.0% 0.44× 7.09
Pittsburgh Panthers −3.5 10.6% 14.1% 29.3% 0.48× 7.09
Pittsburgh Panthers −4.5 9.0% 8.9% 26.3% 0.34× 11.25
Pittsburgh Panthers −5.5 7.6% 8.9% 23.6% 0.38× 11.25
Pittsburgh Panthers −6.5 6.3% 8.9% 21.2% 0.42× 11.25
Pittsburgh Panthers −7.5 5.2% 8.9% 19.0% 0.47× 11.25
Pittsburgh Panthers −8.5 4.3% 2.6% 16.7% 0.16× 38.72
Pittsburgh Panthers −9.5 3.5% 2.6% 14.7% 0.18× 38.73
Pittsburgh Panthers −10.5 2.9% 2.6% 12.8% 0.20× 38.73
Pittsburgh Panthers −12.5 1.8% 2.6% 10.1% 0.26× 38.73
Pittsburgh Panthers −14.5 1.1% 2.6% 7.8% 0.33× 38.74
Pittsburgh Panthers −16.5 0.7% 2.6% 6.0% 0.43× 38.74
Pittsburgh Panthers −18.5 0.4% 2.6% 4.6% 0.57× 38.74
Pittsburgh Panthers −20.5 0.2% 2.6% 3.5% 0.75× 38.74
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 highest scoring 79.5% 71.6% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
2nd half highest scoring 77.9% 71.6% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 22.1% 28.4% 27.5% 1.03× 3.53
H1 highest scoring 20.5% 28.4% 29.6% 0.96× 3.53
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma Sooners at HT / Oklahoma Sooners at FT 63.8% 62.3% 48.6% 1.28× 1.60
Pittsburgh Panthers at HT / Oklahoma Sooners at FT 16.4% 15.5% 12.4% 1.25× 6.47
Pittsburgh Panthers at HT / Pittsburgh Panthers at FT 10.5% 12.2% 25.8% 0.47× 8.18
Oklahoma Sooners at HT / Pittsburgh Panthers at FT 5.4% 8.3% 9.3% 0.89× 12.10
Level at HT / Oklahoma Sooners at FT 3.1% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.74
Level at HT / Pittsburgh Panthers at FT 0.8% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma Sooners to win 83.3% 80.9% 63.2% 1.28× 1.24
Pittsburgh Panthers to win 16.7% 19.1% 36.8% 0.52× 5.24
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma Sooners even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Pittsburgh Panthers even 50.0% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 51.2% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
Oklahoma Sooners odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Pittsburgh Panthers odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.8% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 93.9% 94.0% 94.2% 1.00× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 6.1% 6.0% 5.8% 1.04× 16.66
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pittsburgh Panthers under 79.5 85.9% 83.9% 76.3% 1.10× 1.19
Oklahoma Sooners over 69.5 84.8% 80.7% 69.6% 1.16× 1.24
Oklahoma Sooners under 89.5 84.8% 80.7% 86.5% 0.93× 1.24
Pittsburgh Panthers over 59.5 84.7% 80.7% 84.5% 0.96× 1.24
Pittsburgh Panthers under 76.5 77.7% 75.1% 67.9% 1.11× 1.33
Oklahoma Sooners over 72.5 76.4% 75.1% 60.8% 1.24× 1.33
Oklahoma Sooners under 86.5 76.4% 75.1% 80.8% 0.93× 1.33
Pittsburgh Panthers over 62.5 76.0% 75.1% 76.6% 0.98× 1.33
Pittsburgh Panthers under 74.5 71.0% 70.7% 61.7% 1.15× 1.41
Oklahoma Sooners over 74.5 69.7% 66.4% 54.1% 1.23× 1.51
Oklahoma Sooners under 84.5 69.6% 66.4% 76.1% 0.87× 1.51
Pittsburgh Panthers over 64.5 69.0% 66.4% 70.7% 0.94× 1.51
Oklahoma Sooners over 76.5 62.2% 61.2% 47.7% 1.28× 1.63
Pittsburgh Panthers under 72.5 63.5% 61.2% 55.3% 1.11× 1.63
Oklahoma Sooners under 82.5 62.0% 61.2% 70.8% 0.86× 1.63
Pittsburgh Panthers over 66.5 61.2% 61.2% 64.7% 0.95× 1.63
Pittsburgh Panthers under 70.5 55.4% 57.1% 48.7% 1.17× 1.75
Oklahoma Sooners over 78.5 54.2% 52.3% 41.6% 1.26× 1.91
Oklahoma Sooners under 80.5 54.0% 52.3% 64.9% 0.81× 1.91
Pittsburgh Panthers over 68.5 53.0% 52.3% 58.4% 0.89× 1.91
Pittsburgh Panthers under 69.5 51.2% 52.3% 45.2% 1.16× 1.91
Oklahoma Sooners over 79.5 50.1% 52.3% 38.4% 1.36× 1.91
Oklahoma Sooners under 79.5 49.9% 47.7% 61.6% 0.78× 2.09
Pittsburgh Panthers under 68.5 47.0% 47.7% 41.6% 1.15× 2.09
Pittsburgh Panthers over 69.5 48.8% 47.7% 54.8% 0.87× 2.09
Oklahoma Sooners under 78.5 45.8% 47.7% 58.4% 0.82× 2.09
Oklahoma Sooners over 80.5 46.0% 47.7% 35.1% 1.36× 2.09
Pittsburgh Panthers over 70.5 44.6% 42.9% 51.4% 0.84× 2.33
Oklahoma Sooners over 82.5 38.0% 38.8% 29.2% 1.33× 2.58
Pittsburgh Panthers under 66.5 38.8% 38.8% 35.3% 1.10× 2.58
Oklahoma Sooners under 76.5 37.8% 38.8% 52.3% 0.74× 2.58
Pittsburgh Panthers over 72.5 36.5% 38.8% 44.7% 0.87× 2.58
Oklahoma Sooners under 74.5 30.3% 33.6% 45.9% 0.73× 2.98
Oklahoma Sooners over 84.5 30.4% 33.6% 23.9% 1.41× 2.98
Pittsburgh Panthers under 64.5 31.0% 33.6% 29.3% 1.15× 2.98
Pittsburgh Panthers over 74.5 29.0% 29.3% 38.3% 0.76× 3.42
Oklahoma Sooners under 72.5 23.6% 24.9% 39.2% 0.63× 4.02
Oklahoma Sooners over 86.5 23.6% 24.9% 19.2% 1.30× 4.02
Pittsburgh Panthers under 62.5 24.0% 24.9% 23.4% 1.06× 4.02
Pittsburgh Panthers over 76.5 22.3% 24.9% 32.1% 0.78× 4.02
Pittsburgh Panthers under 59.5 15.3% 19.3% 15.5% 1.24× 5.18
Oklahoma Sooners under 69.5 15.2% 19.3% 30.4% 0.63× 5.18
Oklahoma Sooners over 89.5 15.2% 19.3% 13.5% 1.43× 5.18
Pittsburgh Panthers over 79.5 14.1% 16.1% 23.7% 0.68× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 169.5 points 90.3% 88.8% 87.7% 1.01× 1.13
Over 129.5 points 88.5% 85.0% 83.3% 1.02× 1.18
Under 164.5 points 83.7% 80.6% 82.3% 0.98× 1.24
Over 134.5 points 81.3% 80.6% 74.7% 1.08× 1.24
Under 159.5 points 75.0% 70.8% 75.0% 0.94× 1.41
Over 139.5 points 71.8% 70.8% 64.6% 1.10× 1.41
Under 156.5 points 68.6% 65.9% 69.8% 0.94× 1.52
Over 142.5 points 65.2% 65.9% 58.3% 1.13× 1.52
Under 154.5 points 64.0% 61.5% 66.4% 0.93× 1.63
Over 144.5 points 60.4% 61.5% 54.1% 1.14× 1.63
Under 152.5 points 59.3% 56.5% 62.7% 0.90× 1.77
Over 146.5 points 55.6% 56.5% 49.8% 1.13× 1.77
Under 150.5 points 54.4% 52.3% 58.4% 0.90× 1.91
Under 149.5 points 52.0% 52.3% 56.3% 0.93× 1.91
Over 148.5 points 50.6% 52.3% 45.7% 1.14× 1.91
Under 148.5 points 49.4% 47.7% 54.3% 0.88× 2.10
Over 149.5 points 48.0% 47.7% 43.7% 1.09× 2.10
Over 150.5 points 45.6% 47.7% 41.6% 1.15× 2.10
Under 146.5 points 44.4% 43.5% 50.2% 0.87× 2.30
Over 152.5 points 40.7% 43.5% 37.4% 1.16× 2.30
Under 144.5 points 39.6% 38.5% 45.9% 0.84× 2.60
Over 154.5 points 36.0% 38.5% 33.6% 1.15× 2.60
Under 142.5 points 34.8% 34.1% 41.7% 0.82× 2.93
Over 156.5 points 31.4% 34.1% 30.2% 1.13× 2.93
Under 139.5 points 28.2% 29.2% 35.4% 0.82× 3.43
Over 159.5 points 25.0% 29.2% 25.0% 1.17× 3.43
Under 134.5 points 18.7% 19.4% 25.3% 0.77× 5.15
Over 164.5 points 16.3% 19.4% 17.7% 1.10× 5.15
Under 129.5 points 11.5% 15.0% 16.7% 0.89× 6.69
Over 169.5 points 9.7% 11.2% 12.3% 0.91× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma Sooners to win both halves 46.1% 45.8% 33.2% 1.38× 2.18
Pittsburgh Panthers to win both halves 4.5% 3.0% 14.5% 0.20× 33.56
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma Sooners by 6-10 18.6% 16.8% 14.4% 1.16× 5.97
Oklahoma Sooners by 11-15 18.2% 16.8% 11.6% 1.45× 5.97
Oklahoma Sooners by 1-5 15.3% 16.8% 16.2% 1.03× 5.97
Oklahoma Sooners by 16-20 14.4% 12.3% 7.6% 1.62× 8.11
Pittsburgh Panthers by 1-5 9.2% 7.5% 13.2% 0.57× 13.40
Oklahoma Sooners by 21-25 9.2% 7.5% 5.6% 1.34× 13.40
Oklahoma Sooners by 26+ 7.6% 7.5% 7.9% 0.94× 13.40
Pittsburgh Panthers by 6-10 4.7% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.29
Pittsburgh Panthers by 11-15 2.0% 2.0% 6.1% 0.34× 49.31
Pittsburgh Panthers by 16-20 0.7% 2.0% 3.3% 0.61× 49.32
Pittsburgh Panthers by 21-25 0.2% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 49.33
Pittsburgh Panthers by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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