Portland Trail Blazers v Golden State Warriors — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 8 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated 3 Sep 2026, 23:45

Portland Trail Blazers

22:00

Golden State Warriors

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Portland Trail Blazers win

59.7%

Draw

0.0%

Golden State Warriors win

40.3%

60040

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	60040	115.16–111.70	115-112 0%	49%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to score 100+	90.8%	90.3%	89.3%	1.01×	1.11
Golden State Warriors to score 100+	85.0%	85.0%	85.9%	0.99×	1.18
Both sides to score 100+	78.1%	77.0%	77.5%	0.99×	1.30
Portland Trail Blazers to score 110+	68.5%	63.8%	67.0%	0.95×	1.57
Golden State Warriors to score 110+	57.3%	56.3%	60.9%	0.92×	1.78
Portland Trail Blazers to score 120+	35.9%	35.9%	36.5%	0.98×	2.78
Golden State Warriors to score 120+	25.2%	27.5%	29.7%	0.93×	3.64
Portland Trail Blazers to score 130+	11.3%	13.8%	12.8%	1.08×	7.24
Golden State Warriors to score 130+	6.4%	8.8%	10.0%	0.88×	11.38

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to win H1	54.6%	51.9%	52.8%	0.98×	1.93
Golden State Warriors to win H1	42.0%	42.7%	44.1%	0.97×	2.34
H1 tied	3.5%	3.9%	3.1%	1.25×	25.86

H1 total 40

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 under 127.5	82.7%	83.2%	84.8%	0.98×	1.20
H1 over 103.5	81.2%	83.2%	80.7%	1.03×	1.20
H1 over 102.5	82.2%	82.5%	83.0%	0.99×	1.21
H1 under 126.5	82.2%	82.5%	82.8%	1.00×	1.21
H1 under 123.5	73.8%	74.0%	76.0%	0.97×	1.35
H1 over 107.5	71.9%	74.0%	70.4%	1.05×	1.35
H1 over 106.5	73.1%	73.5%	73.3%	1.00×	1.36
H1 under 122.5	73.1%	73.5%	74.0%	0.99×	1.36
H1 under 120.5	65.8%	68.1%	68.4%	0.99×	1.47
H1 over 110.5	63.8%	63.3%	61.9%	1.02×	1.58
H1 under 118.5	60.1%	63.3%	62.9%	1.01×	1.58
H1 over 109.5	65.0%	62.7%	65.0%	0.97×	1.59
H1 under 119.5	65.0%	62.7%	65.9%	0.95×	1.59
H1 over 111.5	59.1%	58.2%	59.0%	0.99×	1.72
H1 under 117.5	59.1%	58.2%	59.6%	0.98×	1.72
H1 over 112.5	57.9%	58.1%	55.8%	1.04×	1.72
H1 under 115.5	53.1%	52.6%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
H1 over 113.5	53.1%	52.6%	52.4%	1.00×	1.90
H1 under 114.5	50.0%	52.6%	50.4%	1.05×	1.90
H1 under 116.5	54.1%	52.5%	56.6%	0.93×	1.90
H1 over 116.5	45.9%	47.5%	43.4%	1.09×	2.11
H1 over 114.5	50.0%	47.4%	49.6%	0.95×	2.11
H1 over 115.5	46.9%	47.4%	46.4%	1.02×	2.11
H1 under 113.5	46.9%	47.4%	47.6%	0.99×	2.11
H1 under 112.5	42.1%	41.9%	44.2%	0.95×	2.39
H1 under 111.5	40.9%	41.8%	41.0%	1.02×	2.39
H1 over 117.5	40.9%	41.8%	40.4%	1.04×	2.39
H1 under 109.5	35.0%	37.3%	35.0%	1.06×	2.68
H1 over 119.5	35.0%	37.3%	34.1%	1.09×	2.68
H1 over 118.5	39.9%	36.7%	37.1%	0.99×	2.72
H1 under 110.5	36.2%	36.7%	38.1%	0.96×	2.72
H1 over 120.5	34.2%	31.9%	31.6%	1.01×	3.13
H1 under 106.5	26.9%	26.5%	26.7%	0.99×	3.77
H1 over 122.5	26.9%	26.5%	26.0%	1.02×	3.77
H1 under 107.5	28.1%	26.1%	29.6%	0.88×	3.84
H1 over 123.5	26.2%	26.0%	24.0%	1.08×	3.84
H1 under 102.5	17.8%	17.5%	17.0%	1.03×	5.73
H1 over 126.5	17.8%	17.5%	17.2%	1.02×	5.73
H1 under 103.5	18.8%	16.8%	19.3%	0.87×	5.96
H1 over 127.5	17.3%	16.8%	15.2%	1.11×	5.96

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to win H2	54.5%	51.2%	51.6%	0.99×	1.95
Golden State Warriors to win H2	42.0%	43.5%	44.7%	0.97×	2.30
H2 tied	3.5%	3.9%	3.7%	1.06×	25.36

H2 total 40

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 under 124.5	82.7%	81.8%	79.1%	1.03×	1.22
H2 over 100.5	82.2%	81.8%	82.4%	0.99×	1.22
H2 under 125.5	83.2%	81.5%	81.3%	1.00×	1.23
H2 over 101.5	81.1%	81.5%	80.3%	1.02×	1.23
H2 under 121.5	74.3%	72.5%	72.0%	1.01×	1.38
H2 over 105.5	71.8%	72.5%	71.3%	1.02×	1.38
H2 under 120.5	73.6%	72.2%	69.3%	1.04×	1.39
H2 over 104.5	72.9%	72.2%	73.9%	0.98×	1.39
H2 under 117.5	65.5%	66.4%	61.1%	1.09×	1.51
H2 under 118.5	66.4%	64.4%	63.6%	1.01×	1.55
H2 over 108.5	63.5%	62.6%	63.8%	0.98×	1.60
H2 under 116.5	60.6%	62.6%	58.1%	1.08×	1.60
H2 over 107.5	64.7%	61.6%	66.2%	0.93×	1.62
H2 over 110.5	57.6%	58.0%	58.1%	1.00×	1.72
H2 under 115.5	59.6%	57.3%	55.4%	1.03×	1.74
H2 over 109.5	58.8%	57.3%	60.9%	0.94×	1.74
H2 under 113.5	53.5%	52.4%	50.1%	1.05×	1.91
H2 over 111.5	52.7%	52.4%	55.3%	0.95×	1.91
H2 under 112.5	50.4%	52.4%	47.4%	1.10×	1.91
H2 under 114.5	54.6%	52.1%	52.5%	0.99×	1.92
H2 over 114.5	45.4%	47.9%	47.5%	1.01×	2.09
H2 over 112.5	49.6%	47.6%	52.6%	0.91×	2.10
H2 under 111.5	47.3%	47.6%	44.7%	1.07×	2.10
H2 over 113.5	46.5%	47.6%	49.9%	0.95×	2.10
H2 under 109.5	41.2%	42.7%	39.1%	1.09×	2.34
H2 over 115.5	40.4%	42.7%	44.6%	0.96×	2.35
H2 under 110.5	42.4%	42.0%	41.9%	1.00×	2.38
H2 under 107.5	35.3%	38.4%	33.8%	1.14×	2.61
H2 over 116.5	39.4%	37.4%	41.9%	0.89×	2.67
H2 under 108.5	36.5%	37.4%	36.2%	1.03×	2.67
H2 over 118.5	33.6%	35.6%	36.4%	0.98×	2.81
H2 over 117.5	34.5%	33.6%	38.9%	0.86×	2.97
H2 under 104.5	27.1%	27.8%	26.1%	1.07×	3.59
H2 over 120.5	26.4%	27.8%	30.7%	0.91×	3.59
H2 under 105.5	28.2%	27.5%	28.7%	0.96×	3.63
H2 over 121.5	25.7%	27.5%	28.0%	0.98×	3.64
H2 under 101.5	18.9%	18.5%	19.7%	0.94×	5.41
H2 over 125.5	16.8%	18.5%	18.7%	0.99×	5.41
H2 under 100.5	17.8%	18.2%	17.6%	1.03×	5.50
H2 over 124.5	17.3%	18.2%	20.9%	0.87×	5.50

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Portland Trail Blazers leading at half time	54.6%	51.9%	52.8%	0.98×	1.93
Golden State Warriors leading at half time	42.0%	42.8%	44.1%	0.97×	2.33
Level at half time	3.5%	3.8%	3.1%	1.22×	26.41

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Portland Trail Blazers +20.5	94.9%	91.1%	93.1%	0.98×	1.10
Portland Trail Blazers +18.5	93.3%	91.1%	91.5%	1.00×	1.10
Portland Trail Blazers +16.5	91.3%	91.1%	89.7%	1.02×	1.10
Portland Trail Blazers +14.5	88.9%	85.9%	87.0%	0.99×	1.16
Golden State Warriors +20.5	87.7%	85.9%	89.1%	0.96×	1.16
Portland Trail Blazers +12.5	86.1%	85.9%	83.9%	1.02×	1.16
Golden State Warriors +18.5	84.6%	81.1%	86.4%	0.94×	1.23
Portland Trail Blazers +10.5	82.8%	81.1%	80.3%	1.01×	1.23
Portland Trail Blazers +9.5	80.9%	81.1%	78.1%	1.04×	1.23
Golden State Warriors +16.5	81.1%	81.1%	83.5%	0.97×	1.23
Portland Trail Blazers +8.5	79.0%	76.5%	75.7%	1.01×	1.31
Portland Trail Blazers +7.5	76.9%	76.5%	73.0%	1.05×	1.31
Golden State Warriors +14.5	77.1%	76.5%	80.1%	0.95×	1.31
Portland Trail Blazers +6.5	74.7%	71.6%	70.6%	1.01×	1.40
Portland Trail Blazers +5.5	72.4%	71.6%	68.0%	1.05×	1.40
Golden State Warriors +12.5	72.6%	71.6%	76.0%	0.94×	1.40
Portland Trail Blazers +4.5	70.0%	71.6%	65.7%	1.09×	1.40
Portland Trail Blazers +3.5	67.6%	66.7%	63.1%	1.06×	1.50
Golden State Warriors +10.5	67.8%	66.7%	71.0%	0.94×	1.50
Portland Trail Blazers +2.5	65.0%	66.7%	60.5%	1.10×	1.50
Golden State Warriors +9.5	65.2%	66.7%	68.7%	0.97×	1.50
Golden State Warriors +8.5	62.6%	61.9%	65.9%	0.94×	1.62
Portland Trail Blazers +1.5	62.4%	61.9%	57.9%	1.07×	1.62
Golden State Warriors +7.5	59.9%	57.1%	63.0%	0.91×	1.75
Portland Trail Blazers −1.5	56.9%	57.1%	53.7%	1.06×	1.75
Golden State Warriors +6.5	57.2%	57.1%	60.0%	0.95×	1.75
Golden State Warriors +5.5	54.4%	52.4%	57.1%	0.92×	1.91
Portland Trail Blazers −2.5	54.1%	52.4%	50.9%	1.03×	1.91
Portland Trail Blazers −3.5	51.3%	52.4%	48.4%	1.08×	1.91
Golden State Warriors +4.5	51.6%	52.4%	54.1%	0.97×	1.91
Golden State Warriors +3.5	48.7%	47.6%	51.6%	0.92×	2.10
Portland Trail Blazers −4.5	48.4%	47.6%	46.0%	1.04×	2.10
Golden State Warriors +2.5	45.9%	47.6%	49.1%	0.97×	2.10
Portland Trail Blazers −5.5	45.6%	47.6%	42.9%	1.11×	2.10
Golden State Warriors +1.5	43.1%	42.9%	46.3%	0.93×	2.33
Portland Trail Blazers −6.5	42.8%	42.9%	40.0%	1.07×	2.33
Portland Trail Blazers −7.5	40.1%	42.9%	37.0%	1.16×	2.33
Golden State Warriors −1.5	37.6%	38.1%	42.1%	0.90×	2.63
Portland Trail Blazers −8.5	37.4%	38.1%	34.1%	1.12×	2.63
Golden State Warriors −2.5	35.0%	33.3%	39.5%	0.84×	3.01
Portland Trail Blazers −9.5	34.8%	33.3%	31.3%	1.06×	3.01
Golden State Warriors −3.5	32.4%	33.3%	36.9%	0.90×	3.01
Portland Trail Blazers −10.5	32.2%	33.3%	29.0%	1.15×	3.01
Golden State Warriors −4.5	30.0%	28.4%	34.3%	0.83×	3.53
Golden State Warriors −5.5	27.6%	28.4%	32.0%	0.89×	3.53
Portland Trail Blazers −12.5	27.4%	28.4%	24.0%	1.18×	3.53
Golden State Warriors −6.5	25.3%	28.4%	29.4%	0.96×	3.53
Golden State Warriors −7.5	23.1%	23.5%	27.0%	0.87×	4.25
Portland Trail Blazers −14.5	22.9%	23.5%	19.9%	1.19×	4.25
Golden State Warriors −8.5	21.0%	23.5%	24.3%	0.97×	4.25
Golden State Warriors −9.5	19.1%	18.9%	21.9%	0.86×	5.29
Portland Trail Blazers −16.5	18.9%	18.9%	16.5%	1.15×	5.29
Golden State Warriors −10.5	17.2%	18.9%	19.7%	0.96×	5.29
Portland Trail Blazers −18.5	15.4%	18.9%	13.6%	1.39×	5.30
Golden State Warriors −12.5	13.9%	14.1%	16.1%	0.87×	7.09
Portland Trail Blazers −20.5	12.3%	14.1%	10.9%	1.30×	7.09
Golden State Warriors −14.5	11.1%	14.1%	13.0%	1.09×	7.09
Golden State Warriors −16.5	8.7%	8.9%	10.3%	0.86×	11.25
Golden State Warriors −18.5	6.7%	8.9%	8.5%	1.04×	11.25
Golden State Warriors −20.5	5.1%	8.9%	6.9%	1.29×	11.25

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	56.6%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
2nd half highest scoring	43.4%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 highest scoring	28.2%	27.4%	29.2%	0.94×	3.65
Q3 highest scoring	27.9%	27.4%	27.5%	1.00×	3.65
Q2 highest scoring	26.6%	27.4%	26.3%	1.04×	3.65
Q4 highest scoring	17.3%	18.3%	17.0%	1.08×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Portland Trail Blazers at HT / Portland Trail Blazers at FT	43.7%	41.0%	40.8%	1.01×	2.44
Golden State Warriors at HT / Golden State Warriors at FT	28.0%	29.6%	30.9%	0.96×	3.38
Golden State Warriors at HT / Portland Trail Blazers at FT	14.0%	12.2%	13.3%	0.92×	8.17
Portland Trail Blazers at HT / Golden State Warriors at FT	10.9%	12.2%	12.0%	1.02×	8.18
Level at HT / Portland Trail Blazers at FT	2.0%	2.1%	1.7%	1.22×	47.76
Level at HT / Golden State Warriors at FT	1.5%	2.1%	1.4%	1.49×	47.77

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to win	59.7%	55.2%	55.7%	0.99×	1.81
Golden State Warriors to win	40.3%	44.8%	44.3%	1.01×	2.23

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Total points odd	51.4%	50.5%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Golden State Warriors even	50.0%	50.5%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
Portland Trail Blazers even	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Golden State Warriors odd	50.0%	49.5%	49.7%	1.00×	2.02
Portland Trail Blazers odd	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.98×	2.02
Total points even	48.6%	49.5%	49.0%	1.01×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	93.0%	94.0%	94.8%	0.99×	1.06
Match to go to overtime	7.0%	6.0%	5.2%	1.16×	16.65

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to win Q1	51.9%	52.6%	51.3%	1.02×	1.90
Golden State Warriors to win Q1	43.3%	42.9%	44.1%	0.97×	2.33
Q1 tied	4.8%	4.2%	4.6%	0.90×	23.94

Q1 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 under 65.5	83.0%	82.8%	83.2%	1.00×	1.21
Q1 over 49.5	82.4%	82.8%	82.7%	1.00×	1.21
Q1 under 62.5	72.6%	72.7%	72.9%	1.00×	1.38
Q1 over 52.5	71.8%	72.7%	72.4%	1.00×	1.38
Q1 under 60.5	64.3%	61.7%	64.5%	0.96×	1.62
Q1 over 54.5	63.3%	61.7%	63.3%	0.98×	1.62
Q1 under 58.5	55.2%	58.6%	55.7%	1.05×	1.71
Q1 over 56.5	54.2%	52.7%	54.6%	0.96×	1.90
Q1 under 57.5	50.5%	52.7%	50.4%	1.04×	1.90
Q1 over 57.5	49.5%	47.3%	49.6%	0.96×	2.11
Q1 under 56.5	45.8%	47.3%	45.4%	1.04×	2.11
Q1 over 58.5	44.8%	41.4%	44.3%	0.93×	2.42
Q1 under 54.5	36.7%	38.3%	36.7%	1.04×	2.61
Q1 over 60.5	35.7%	38.3%	35.5%	1.08×	2.61
Q1 under 52.5	28.2%	27.3%	27.6%	0.99×	3.66
Q1 over 62.5	27.4%	27.3%	27.1%	1.01×	3.66
Q1 under 49.5	17.6%	17.2%	17.3%	0.99×	5.83
Q1 over 65.5	17.0%	17.2%	16.8%	1.02×	5.83

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to win Q2	51.9%	51.4%	49.3%	1.04×	1.95
Golden State Warriors to win Q2	43.4%	43.9%	46.2%	0.95×	2.28
Q2 tied	4.7%	4.4%	4.5%	0.98×	22.88

Q2 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 under 65.5	83.7%	83.0%	83.6%	0.99×	1.21
Q2 over 49.5	81.3%	83.0%	81.8%	1.02×	1.21
Q2 under 62.5	73.6%	72.0%	74.4%	0.97×	1.39
Q2 over 52.5	70.5%	72.0%	70.3%	1.02×	1.39
Q2 under 60.5	65.5%	67.4%	65.7%	1.02×	1.49
Q2 over 54.5	62.0%	60.7%	61.1%	0.99×	1.65
Q2 under 58.5	56.5%	58.2%	57.3%	1.01×	1.72
Q2 over 56.5	52.8%	52.7%	51.7%	1.02×	1.90
Q2 under 57.5	51.9%	52.7%	52.7%	1.00×	1.90
Q2 over 57.5	48.1%	47.3%	47.3%	1.00×	2.11
Q2 under 56.5	47.2%	47.3%	48.3%	0.98×	2.11
Q2 over 58.5	43.5%	41.8%	42.7%	0.98×	2.39
Q2 under 54.5	38.0%	39.3%	38.9%	1.01×	2.55
Q2 over 60.5	34.6%	32.6%	34.3%	0.95×	3.06
Q2 under 52.5	29.5%	28.0%	29.7%	0.94×	3.57
Q2 over 62.5	26.4%	28.0%	25.6%	1.09×	3.57
Q2 under 49.5	18.7%	17.0%	18.2%	0.93×	5.88
Q2 over 65.5	16.3%	17.0%	16.4%	1.04×	5.88

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to win Q3	51.9%	52.7%	50.9%	1.04×	1.90
Golden State Warriors to win Q3	43.4%	42.3%	44.3%	0.95×	2.37
Q3 tied	4.7%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.43

Q3 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 over 49.5	83.1%	82.3%	82.7%	1.00×	1.22
Q3 under 65.5	82.8%	82.3%	82.2%	1.00×	1.22
Q3 under 66.5	84.6%	82.2%	84.7%	0.97×	1.22
Q3 over 50.5	80.8%	82.2%	79.7%	1.03×	1.22
Q3 under 63.5	74.7%	72.5%	75.9%	0.95×	1.38
Q3 over 52.5	72.6%	71.8%	72.2%	0.99×	1.39
Q3 under 62.5	72.2%	71.8%	71.9%	1.00×	1.39
Q3 over 53.5	69.7%	66.9%	68.3%	0.98×	1.50
Q3 under 61.5	66.6%	66.8%	67.7%	0.99×	1.50
Q3 over 55.5	61.0%	62.6%	59.9%	1.05×	1.60
Q3 over 54.5	64.2%	62.0%	63.9%	0.97×	1.61
Q3 under 60.5	63.7%	62.0%	63.5%	0.98×	1.61
Q3 under 59.5	57.6%	57.9%	59.0%	0.98×	1.73
Q3 under 58.5	54.5%	52.3%	54.8%	0.95×	1.91
Q3 over 56.5	55.0%	52.3%	55.0%	0.95×	1.91
Q3 over 57.5	50.3%	52.3%	50.2%	1.04×	1.91
Q3 under 57.5	49.7%	47.7%	49.8%	0.96×	2.10
Q3 over 58.5	45.5%	47.7%	45.2%	1.06×	2.10
Q3 under 56.5	45.0%	47.7%	45.0%	1.06×	2.10
Q3 over 59.5	42.4%	42.1%	41.0%	1.03×	2.37
Q3 over 60.5	36.3%	38.0%	36.5%	1.04×	2.63
Q3 under 54.5	35.8%	38.0%	36.1%	1.05×	2.63
Q3 under 55.5	39.0%	37.4%	40.1%	0.93×	2.67
Q3 over 61.5	33.4%	33.2%	32.3%	1.03×	3.02
Q3 under 53.5	30.3%	33.1%	31.7%	1.05×	3.02
Q3 over 62.5	27.8%	28.2%	28.1%	1.00×	3.55
Q3 under 52.5	27.4%	28.2%	27.8%	1.02×	3.55
Q3 over 63.5	25.3%	27.5%	24.1%	1.14×	3.64
Q3 under 50.5	19.2%	17.8%	20.3%	0.88×	5.62
Q3 over 66.5	15.4%	17.8%	15.3%	1.16×	5.63
Q3 over 65.5	17.2%	17.7%	17.8%	0.99×	5.66
Q3 under 49.5	16.9%	17.7%	17.3%	1.02×	5.66

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to win Q4	51.8%	51.4%	48.3%	1.06×	1.95
Golden State Warriors to win Q4	43.4%	43.1%	46.4%	0.93×	2.32
Q4 tied	4.9%	5.2%	5.3%	0.98×	19.28

Q4 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 under 63.5	84.2%	82.0%	83.7%	0.98×	1.22
Q4 over 47.5	80.0%	82.0%	79.0%	1.04×	1.22
Q4 under 60.5	74.4%	71.5%	74.2%	0.96×	1.40
Q4 over 50.5	69.0%	67.4%	68.5%	0.98×	1.48
Q4 under 58.5	66.5%	67.4%	66.2%	1.02×	1.48
Q4 over 52.5	60.5%	61.4%	60.4%	1.02×	1.63
Q4 under 56.5	57.7%	58.4%	57.2%	1.02×	1.71
Q4 under 55.5	53.2%	52.5%	52.9%	0.99×	1.91
Q4 over 54.5	51.4%	52.5%	51.4%	1.02×	1.91
Q4 under 54.5	48.6%	47.5%	48.6%	0.98×	2.11
Q4 over 55.5	46.8%	47.5%	47.1%	1.01×	2.11
Q4 over 56.5	42.3%	41.6%	42.8%	0.97×	2.40
Q4 under 52.5	39.5%	38.6%	39.6%	0.97×	2.59
Q4 over 58.5	33.5%	32.6%	33.8%	0.96×	3.07
Q4 under 50.5	31.0%	32.6%	31.5%	1.04×	3.07
Q4 over 60.5	25.6%	28.5%	25.8%	1.11×	3.51
Q4 under 47.5	20.0%	18.0%	21.0%	0.86×	5.56
Q4 over 63.5	15.8%	18.0%	16.3%	1.11×	5.56

Team total 62

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Golden State Warriors over 101.5	80.7%	80.7%	82.0%	0.98×	1.24
Portland Trail Blazers under 125.5	80.8%	80.7%	79.1%	1.02×	1.24
Golden State Warriors over 102.5	80.0%	78.3%	79.7%	0.98×	1.28
Golden State Warriors under 122.5	79.2%	78.3%	77.4%	1.01×	1.28
Golden State Warriors under 121.5	79.9%	75.1%	74.7%	1.01×	1.33
Portland Trail Blazers over 105.5	79.4%	75.1%	77.4%	0.97×	1.33
Golden State Warriors over 105.5	72.3%	71.8%	71.9%	1.00×	1.39
Golden State Warriors under 119.5	71.5%	71.8%	70.3%	1.02×	1.39
Golden State Warriors over 104.5	72.9%	70.7%	75.0%	0.94×	1.41
Golden State Warriors under 118.5	72.0%	70.7%	67.4%	1.05×	1.41
Portland Trail Blazers under 122.5	73.1%	70.7%	71.8%	0.98×	1.41
Portland Trail Blazers over 108.5	71.5%	70.7%	69.9%	1.01×	1.41
Golden State Warriors over 107.5	66.5%	66.6%	66.6%	1.00×	1.50
Golden State Warriors under 117.5	65.6%	66.6%	64.4%	1.03×	1.50
Portland Trail Blazers under 120.5	67.2%	66.4%	66.3%	1.00×	1.51
Golden State Warriors over 106.5	67.0%	66.4%	68.9%	0.96×	1.51
Golden State Warriors under 116.5	66.0%	66.4%	61.5%	1.08×	1.51
Portland Trail Blazers over 110.5	65.5%	66.4%	64.1%	1.04×	1.51
Golden State Warriors over 108.5	60.6%	61.2%	64.0%	0.96×	1.63
Portland Trail Blazers under 118.5	60.9%	61.2%	60.3%	1.02×	1.63
Golden State Warriors over 109.5	60.3%	61.2%	60.9%	1.00×	1.64
Golden State Warriors under 115.5	59.3%	57.9%	58.6%	0.99×	1.73
Golden State Warriors under 114.5	59.6%	57.1%	55.5%	1.03×	1.75
Portland Trail Blazers over 112.5	59.1%	57.1%	57.7%	0.99×	1.75
Golden State Warriors over 110.5	53.9%	52.3%	57.9%	0.90×	1.91
Portland Trail Blazers under 116.5	54.3%	52.3%	54.7%	0.95×	1.91
Portland Trail Blazers over 114.5	52.4%	52.3%	51.4%	1.02×	1.91
Golden State Warriors under 112.5	52.9%	52.3%	48.5%	1.08×	1.91
Portland Trail Blazers under 115.5	50.9%	52.3%	51.6%	1.01×	1.91
Golden State Warriors over 111.5	50.5%	52.3%	54.6%	0.96×	1.91
Golden State Warriors under 113.5	52.8%	52.2%	52.0%	1.00×	1.91
Golden State Warriors over 113.5	47.2%	47.8%	48.0%	1.00×	2.09
Portland Trail Blazers over 115.5	49.1%	47.7%	48.4%	0.99×	2.09
Golden State Warriors under 111.5	49.5%	47.7%	45.4%	1.05×	2.09
Portland Trail Blazers under 114.5	47.6%	47.7%	48.6%	0.98×	2.09
Golden State Warriors over 112.5	47.1%	47.7%	51.5%	0.93×	2.09
Golden State Warriors under 110.5	46.1%	47.7%	42.1%	1.13×	2.09
Portland Trail Blazers over 116.5	45.7%	47.7%	45.3%	1.05×	2.09
Golden State Warriors over 114.5	40.4%	42.9%	44.5%	0.96×	2.33
Portland Trail Blazers under 112.5	40.9%	42.9%	42.3%	1.01×	2.33
Golden State Warriors over 115.5	40.7%	42.1%	41.4%	1.01×	2.38
Golden State Warriors under 109.5	39.7%	38.8%	39.1%	0.99×	2.58
Golden State Warriors under 108.5	39.4%	38.8%	36.0%	1.08×	2.58
Portland Trail Blazers over 118.5	39.1%	38.8%	39.7%	0.98×	2.58
Portland Trail Blazers under 110.5	34.5%	33.6%	35.9%	0.94×	2.98
Golden State Warriors under 106.5	33.0%	33.6%	31.1%	1.08×	2.98
Golden State Warriors over 116.5	34.0%	33.6%	38.5%	0.87×	2.98
Portland Trail Blazers over 120.5	32.8%	33.6%	33.7%	1.00×	2.98
Golden State Warriors over 117.5	34.4%	33.4%	35.6%	0.94×	2.99
Golden State Warriors under 107.5	33.5%	33.4%	33.4%	1.00×	2.99
Portland Trail Blazers under 108.5	28.5%	29.3%	30.1%	0.97×	3.42
Golden State Warriors under 104.5	27.1%	29.3%	25.0%	1.17×	3.42
Golden State Warriors over 118.5	28.0%	29.3%	32.6%	0.90×	3.42
Portland Trail Blazers over 122.5	26.9%	29.3%	28.2%	1.04×	3.42
Golden State Warriors over 119.5	28.5%	28.2%	29.7%	0.95×	3.55
Golden State Warriors under 105.5	27.7%	28.2%	28.1%	1.00×	3.55
Golden State Warriors over 121.5	20.1%	24.9%	25.3%	0.98×	4.02
Portland Trail Blazers under 105.5	20.6%	24.9%	22.6%	1.10×	4.02
Golden State Warriors over 122.5	20.8%	21.7%	22.6%	0.96×	4.60
Golden State Warriors under 102.5	20.0%	21.7%	20.3%	1.07×	4.61
Golden State Warriors under 101.5	19.3%	19.3%	18.0%	1.07×	5.18
Portland Trail Blazers over 125.5	19.2%	19.3%	20.9%	0.92×	5.18

Total points 56

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 248.5 points	86.1%	85.5%	84.4%	1.01×	1.17
Over 208.5 points	85.2%	85.5%	84.1%	1.02×	1.17
Under 247.5 points	86.9%	85.0%	83.3%	1.02×	1.18
Over 207.5 points	85.4%	85.0%	85.5%	0.99×	1.18
Under 242.5 points	80.2%	80.6%	76.8%	1.05×	1.24
Under 243.5 points	79.4%	78.1%	78.2%	1.00×	1.28
Over 213.5 points	78.2%	78.1%	76.4%	1.02×	1.28
Over 212.5 points	78.3%	75.6%	77.8%	0.97×	1.32
Under 238.5 points	70.9%	71.0%	70.9%	1.00×	1.41
Under 237.5 points	71.9%	70.8%	69.3%	1.02×	1.41
Over 218.5 points	69.6%	66.6%	67.8%	0.98×	1.50
Under 235.5 points	65.3%	66.6%	65.3%	1.02×	1.50
Over 217.5 points	69.4%	65.9%	69.6%	0.95×	1.52
Under 234.5 points	66.1%	65.9%	63.3%	1.04×	1.52
Over 221.5 points	63.8%	61.8%	62.2%	0.99×	1.62
Under 233.5 points	61.3%	61.7%	61.4%	1.01×	1.62
Over 220.5 points	63.6%	61.5%	64.2%	0.96×	1.63
Under 232.5 points	62.0%	61.5%	59.4%	1.04×	1.63
Over 222.5 points	59.4%	56.5%	60.4%	0.94×	1.77
Under 230.5 points	57.8%	56.5%	55.4%	1.02×	1.77
Over 224.5 points	55.1%	56.5%	56.5%	1.00×	1.77
Over 223.5 points	59.7%	56.0%	58.3%	0.96×	1.79
Under 231.5 points	57.2%	56.0%	57.4%	0.98×	1.79
Over 225.5 points	55.5%	56.0%	54.7%	1.02×	1.79
Under 228.5 points	53.5%	52.3%	51.3%	1.02×	1.91
Over 226.5 points	50.8%	52.3%	52.7%	0.99×	1.91
Under 227.5 points	51.4%	52.3%	49.4%	1.06×	1.91
Under 229.5 points	52.9%	52.2%	53.3%	0.98×	1.92
Over 229.5 points	47.1%	47.8%	46.7%	1.02×	2.09
Under 226.5 points	49.2%	47.7%	47.3%	1.01×	2.10
Over 227.5 points	48.6%	47.7%	50.6%	0.94×	2.10
Over 228.5 points	46.5%	47.7%	48.7%	0.98×	2.10
Under 225.5 points	44.5%	44.0%	45.3%	0.97×	2.27
Over 231.5 points	42.8%	44.0%	42.6%	1.03×	2.27
Under 223.5 points	40.3%	44.0%	41.7%	1.05×	2.27
Under 224.5 points	44.9%	43.5%	43.5%	1.00×	2.30
Over 230.5 points	42.2%	43.5%	44.6%	0.97×	2.30
Under 222.5 points	40.6%	43.5%	39.6%	1.10×	2.30
Over 232.5 points	38.0%	38.5%	40.6%	0.95×	2.60
Under 220.5 points	36.4%	38.5%	35.8%	1.08×	2.60
Over 233.5 points	38.7%	38.3%	38.6%	0.99×	2.61
Under 221.5 points	36.2%	38.2%	37.8%	1.01×	2.61
Over 234.5 points	33.9%	34.1%	36.7%	0.93×	2.93
Under 217.5 points	30.6%	34.1%	30.4%	1.12×	2.93
Over 235.5 points	34.7%	33.4%	34.7%	0.96×	2.99
Under 218.5 points	30.4%	33.4%	32.2%	1.04×	3.00
Over 237.5 points	28.1%	29.2%	30.7%	0.95×	3.43
Over 238.5 points	29.1%	29.0%	29.1%	0.99×	3.45
Under 212.5 points	21.7%	24.4%	22.2%	1.10×	4.10
Under 213.5 points	21.8%	21.9%	23.6%	0.93×	4.57
Over 243.5 points	20.6%	21.9%	21.8%	1.00×	4.57
Over 242.5 points	19.8%	19.4%	23.2%	0.84×	5.15
Under 207.5 points	14.6%	15.0%	14.5%	1.03×	6.68
Over 247.5 points	13.1%	15.0%	16.7%	0.90×	6.69
Under 208.5 points	14.8%	14.5%	15.9%	0.91×	6.88
Over 248.5 points	13.9%	14.5%	15.6%	0.93×	6.88

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to win both halves	27.6%	27.2%	25.2%	1.08×	3.68
Golden State Warriors to win both halves	15.6%	18.9%	17.8%	1.06×	5.30

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Portland Trail Blazers by 1-5	14.1%	12.3%	12.8%	0.96×	8.11
Portland Trail Blazers by 6-10	13.4%	12.3%	13.9%	0.88×	8.11
Golden State Warriors by 1-5	12.8%	12.3%	12.3%	1.01×	8.11
Portland Trail Blazers by 11-15	11.4%	12.3%	10.8%	1.14×	8.11
Golden State Warriors by 6-10	10.3%	12.3%	12.3%	1.00×	8.11
Portland Trail Blazers by 16-20	8.5%	7.5%	7.3%	1.02×	13.40
Golden State Warriors by 11-15	7.4%	7.5%	8.0%	0.93×	13.40
Portland Trail Blazers by 21-25	5.7%	7.5%	4.7%	1.58×	13.40
Portland Trail Blazers by 26+	6.6%	7.5%	6.2%	1.21×	13.40
Golden State Warriors by 16-20	4.8%	2.0%	4.9%	0.42×	49.29
Golden State Warriors by 21-25	2.7%	2.0%	3.0%	0.67×	49.30
Golden State Warriors by 26+	2.4%	2.0%	3.9%	0.53×	49.31

Portland Trail Blazers v Golden State Warriors — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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