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Richmond Spiders v VMI Keydets — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Richmond Spiders win
96.8%
Draw
0.0%
VMI Keydets win
3.2%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 84.94–65.52 85-66 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Richmond Spiders to score 100+ 6.8% 8.8% 3.4% 2.55× 11.38
Richmond Spiders to score 110+ 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.24
Richmond Spiders to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.35
Richmond Spiders to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
VMI Keydets to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 283.35
VMI Keydets to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.36
VMI Keydets to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
VMI Keydets to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.35
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Richmond Spiders to win H1 84.4% 83.7% 57.9% 1.44× 1.20
Richmond Spiders to win H1 84.3% 83.7% 57.9% 1.44× 1.20
VMI Keydets to win H1 13.1% 10.8% 38.2% 0.28× 9.25
VMI Keydets to win H1 13.0% 10.8% 38.2% 0.28× 9.25
H1 tied 2.6% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.87
H1 tied 2.6% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.87
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 83.5 87.7% 87.7% 90.3% 0.97× 1.14
H1 over 59.5 86.5% 87.7% 80.7% 1.09× 1.14
H1 under 79.5 79.0% 77.4% 83.1% 0.93× 1.29
H1 under 79.5 78.3% 77.4% 83.1% 0.93× 1.29
H1 over 63.5 77.3% 77.4% 69.0% 1.12× 1.29
H1 over 63.5 76.6% 77.4% 69.0% 1.12× 1.29
H1 under 76.5 69.7% 67.4% 75.5% 0.89× 1.48
H1 under 76.5 69.1% 67.4% 75.5% 0.89× 1.48
H1 over 66.5 67.6% 67.4% 58.2% 1.16× 1.48
H1 over 66.5 67.1% 67.4% 58.2% 1.16× 1.48
H1 under 74.5 62.6% 62.7% 69.6% 0.90× 1.59
H1 under 74.5 62.2% 62.7% 69.6% 0.90× 1.59
H1 over 68.5 60.3% 62.7% 50.7% 1.24× 1.59
H1 over 68.5 60.0% 62.7% 50.7% 1.24× 1.59
H1 under 72.5 55.1% 58.2% 63.3% 0.92× 1.72
H1 under 72.5 54.9% 52.6% 63.3% 0.83× 1.90
H1 over 70.5 52.7% 52.6% 43.5% 1.21× 1.90
H1 over 70.5 52.6% 52.6% 43.5% 1.21× 1.90
H1 under 71.5 51.2% 52.6% 60.0% 0.88× 1.90
H1 under 71.5 51.2% 52.6% 60.0% 0.88× 1.90
H1 over 71.5 48.8% 47.4% 40.0% 1.19× 2.11
H1 over 71.5 48.8% 47.4% 40.0% 1.19× 2.11
H1 under 70.5 47.3% 47.4% 56.5% 0.84× 2.11
H1 under 70.5 47.4% 47.4% 56.5% 0.84× 2.11
H1 over 72.5 45.1% 47.4% 36.7% 1.29× 2.11
H1 over 72.5 44.9% 41.8% 36.7% 1.14× 2.39
H1 under 68.5 39.7% 37.3% 49.3% 0.76× 2.68
H1 under 68.5 40.0% 37.3% 49.3% 0.76× 2.68
H1 over 74.5 37.4% 37.3% 30.4% 1.23× 2.68
H1 over 74.5 37.8% 37.3% 30.4% 1.23× 2.68
H1 under 66.5 32.4% 32.6% 41.8% 0.78× 3.07
H1 under 66.5 32.9% 32.6% 41.8% 0.78× 3.07
H1 over 76.5 30.9% 32.6% 24.5% 1.33× 3.07
H1 over 76.5 30.3% 32.6% 24.5% 1.33× 3.07
H1 under 63.5 23.4% 22.6% 31.0% 0.73× 4.43
H1 under 63.5 22.7% 22.6% 31.0% 0.73× 4.43
H1 over 79.5 21.0% 22.6% 16.9% 1.34× 4.43
H1 over 79.5 21.7% 22.6% 16.9% 1.34× 4.43
H1 under 59.5 13.5% 12.3% 19.3% 0.64× 8.13
H1 over 83.5 12.3% 12.3% 9.7% 1.26× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Richmond Spiders to win H2 86.2% 84.1% 56.9% 1.48× 1.19
Richmond Spiders to win H2 86.1% 84.1% 57.5% 1.46× 1.19
VMI Keydets to win H2 11.6% 14.7% 38.5% 0.38× 6.79
VMI Keydets to win H2 11.5% 14.7% 38.9% 0.38× 6.79
H2 tied 2.3% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.37
H2 tied 2.3% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.37
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 91.5 86.0% 85.2% 85.5% 1.00× 1.17
H2 over 67.5 85.5% 85.2% 80.0% 1.07× 1.17
H2 under 87.5 77.2% 75.8% 81.2% 0.93× 1.32
H2 under 87.5 76.5% 75.8% 77.7% 0.98× 1.32
H2 over 71.5 76.4% 75.8% 66.4% 1.14× 1.32
H2 over 71.5 75.8% 75.8% 68.8% 1.10× 1.32
H2 over 74.5 67.2% 66.4% 57.0% 1.16× 1.51
H2 under 84.5 68.1% 66.4% 74.1% 0.90× 1.51
H2 under 84.5 67.6% 66.4% 70.5% 0.94× 1.51
H2 over 74.5 66.7% 66.4% 60.0% 1.11× 1.51
H2 under 82.5 61.3% 61.6% 68.9% 0.89× 1.62
H2 over 76.5 60.3% 61.6% 50.3% 1.23× 1.62
H2 over 76.5 60.0% 61.6% 53.4% 1.15× 1.62
H2 under 82.5 61.0% 61.6% 65.3% 0.94× 1.62
H2 under 80.5 54.2% 52.4% 62.9% 0.83× 1.91
H2 under 80.5 54.1% 52.4% 59.2% 0.88× 1.91
H2 over 78.5 53.1% 52.4% 43.6% 1.20× 1.91
H2 over 78.5 53.0% 52.4% 47.0% 1.11× 1.91
H2 under 79.5 50.6% 52.4% 59.8% 0.88× 1.91
H2 under 79.5 50.5% 52.4% 56.2% 0.93× 1.91
H2 over 79.5 49.5% 47.6% 40.3% 1.18× 2.10
H2 over 79.5 49.5% 47.6% 43.8% 1.09× 2.10
H2 under 78.5 46.9% 47.6% 56.4% 0.84× 2.10
H2 under 78.5 47.0% 47.6% 53.0% 0.90× 2.10
H2 over 80.5 45.8% 47.6% 37.1% 1.28× 2.10
H2 over 80.5 45.9% 47.6% 40.8% 1.17× 2.10
H2 under 76.5 39.7% 38.4% 49.7% 0.77× 2.61
H2 under 76.5 40.0% 38.4% 46.6% 0.82× 2.61
H2 over 82.5 39.0% 38.4% 34.7% 1.11× 2.61
H2 over 82.5 38.7% 38.4% 31.1% 1.23× 2.61
H2 under 74.5 33.3% 33.6% 40.0% 0.84× 2.97
H2 under 74.5 32.8% 33.6% 43.0% 0.78× 2.97
H2 over 84.5 31.9% 33.6% 25.9% 1.30× 2.97
H2 over 84.5 32.4% 33.6% 29.5% 1.14× 2.97
H2 under 71.5 23.6% 24.2% 33.6% 0.72× 4.13
H2 under 71.5 24.2% 24.2% 31.2% 0.78× 4.13
H2 over 87.5 22.8% 24.2% 18.8% 1.29× 4.13
H2 over 87.5 23.5% 24.2% 22.3% 1.08× 4.13
H2 under 67.5 14.5% 14.8% 20.0% 0.74× 6.76
H2 over 91.5 14.0% 14.8% 14.5% 1.02× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Richmond Spiders leading at half time 84.3% 83.4% 57.9% 1.44× 1.20
VMI Keydets leading at half time 13.1% 10.3% 38.2% 0.27× 9.68
Level at half time 2.6% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.42
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Richmond Spiders +7.5 99.4% 97.4% 81.0% 1.20× 1.03
Richmond Spiders +8.5 99.5% 97.4% 83.3% 1.17× 1.03
Richmond Spiders +9.5 99.6% 97.4% 85.3% 1.14× 1.03
Richmond Spiders +10.5 99.7% 97.4% 87.2% 1.12× 1.03
Richmond Spiders +12.5 99.9% 97.4% 89.9% 1.08× 1.03
Richmond Spiders +14.5 99.9% 97.4% 92.2% 1.06× 1.03
Richmond Spiders +16.5 100.0% 97.4% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
Richmond Spiders +18.5 100.0% 97.4% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
Richmond Spiders +20.5 100.0% 97.4% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
Richmond Spiders −1.5 95.9% 97.4% 60.8% 1.60× 1.03
Richmond Spiders +1.5 97.4% 97.4% 65.4% 1.49× 1.03
Richmond Spiders +2.5 97.9% 97.4% 68.0% 1.43× 1.03
Richmond Spiders +3.5 98.4% 97.4% 70.8% 1.38× 1.03
Richmond Spiders +4.5 98.7% 97.4% 73.7% 1.32× 1.03
Richmond Spiders +5.5 99.0% 97.4% 76.4% 1.28× 1.03
Richmond Spiders +6.5 99.2% 97.4% 78.8% 1.24× 1.03
Richmond Spiders −2.5 94.9% 91.1% 57.7% 1.58× 1.10
Richmond Spiders −3.5 93.8% 91.1% 54.1% 1.68× 1.10
Richmond Spiders −4.5 92.4% 91.1% 50.7% 1.80× 1.10
Richmond Spiders −5.5 90.9% 91.1% 47.0% 1.94× 1.10
Richmond Spiders −6.5 89.2% 85.9% 44.3% 1.94× 1.16
Richmond Spiders −7.5 87.3% 85.9% 41.3% 2.08× 1.16
Richmond Spiders −8.5 85.1% 85.9% 38.5% 2.23× 1.16
Richmond Spiders −9.5 82.8% 81.1% 35.5% 2.29× 1.23
Richmond Spiders −10.5 80.2% 81.1% 32.6% 2.49× 1.23
Richmond Spiders −12.5 74.5% 71.6% 27.6% 2.59× 1.40
Richmond Spiders −14.5 68.1% 66.7% 22.8% 2.92× 1.50
Richmond Spiders −16.5 61.1% 61.9% 19.3% 3.21× 1.62
Richmond Spiders −18.5 53.7% 52.4% 16.1% 3.24× 1.91
VMI Keydets +20.5 53.8% 52.4% 86.5% 0.61× 1.91
VMI Keydets +18.5 46.3% 47.6% 83.9% 0.57× 2.10
Richmond Spiders −20.5 46.2% 47.6% 13.5% 3.54× 2.10
VMI Keydets +16.5 38.9% 38.1% 80.7% 0.47× 2.63
VMI Keydets +14.5 31.9% 33.3% 77.2% 0.43× 3.01
VMI Keydets +12.5 25.5% 28.4% 72.4% 0.39× 3.53
VMI Keydets +10.5 19.8% 18.9% 67.4% 0.28× 5.29
VMI Keydets +9.5 17.2% 18.9% 64.5% 0.29× 5.29
VMI Keydets +8.5 14.9% 14.1% 61.5% 0.23× 7.09
VMI Keydets +7.5 12.7% 14.1% 58.7% 0.24× 7.09
VMI Keydets +6.5 10.8% 14.1% 55.7% 0.25× 7.09
VMI Keydets +5.5 9.1% 8.9% 53.0% 0.17× 11.25
VMI Keydets +3.5 6.2% 8.9% 45.9% 0.19× 11.25
VMI Keydets +4.5 7.6% 8.9% 49.3% 0.18× 11.25
VMI Keydets +2.5 5.1% 8.9% 42.3% 0.21× 11.25
VMI Keydets +1.5 4.1% 2.6% 39.2% 0.07× 38.72
VMI Keydets −1.5 2.6% 2.6% 34.6% 0.07× 38.73
VMI Keydets −2.5 2.1% 2.6% 32.0% 0.08× 38.73
VMI Keydets −3.5 1.7% 2.6% 29.3% 0.09× 38.73
VMI Keydets −4.5 1.3% 2.6% 26.3% 0.10× 38.74
VMI Keydets −5.5 1.0% 2.6% 23.6% 0.11× 38.74
VMI Keydets −6.5 0.8% 2.6% 21.2% 0.12× 38.74
VMI Keydets −7.5 0.6% 2.6% 19.0% 0.14× 38.74
VMI Keydets −8.5 0.5% 2.6% 16.7% 0.16× 38.74
VMI Keydets −9.5 0.4% 2.6% 14.7% 0.18× 38.74
VMI Keydets −10.5 0.3% 2.6% 12.8% 0.20× 38.74
VMI Keydets −12.5 0.1% 2.6% 10.1% 0.26× 38.74
VMI Keydets −14.5 0.1% 2.6% 7.8% 0.33× 38.74
VMI Keydets −16.5 0.0% 2.6% 6.0% 0.43× 38.74
VMI Keydets −18.5 0.0% 2.6% 4.6% 0.57× 38.74
VMI Keydets −20.5 0.0% 2.6% 3.5% 0.75× 38.74
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 highest scoring 79.8% 71.6% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
2nd half highest scoring 78.2% 71.6% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 21.8% 28.4% 27.5% 1.03× 3.53
H1 highest scoring 20.2% 28.4% 29.6% 0.96× 3.53
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Richmond Spiders at HT / Richmond Spiders at FT 83.2% 84.6% 48.6% 1.74× 1.18
VMI Keydets at HT / Richmond Spiders at FT 11.2% 12.2% 12.4% 0.99× 8.18
Level at HT / Richmond Spiders at FT 2.4% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.75
VMI Keydets at HT / VMI Keydets at FT 1.9% 2.1% 25.8% 0.08× 47.76
Richmond Spiders at HT / VMI Keydets at FT 1.1% 2.1% 9.3% 0.22× 47.77
Level at HT / VMI Keydets at FT 0.2% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.79
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Richmond Spiders to win 96.8% 97.4% 63.2% 1.54× 1.03
VMI Keydets to win 3.2% 2.6% 36.8% 0.07× 39.06
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Richmond Spiders even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
VMI Keydets even 50.0% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 50.4% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
Richmond Spiders odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
VMI Keydets odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 49.6% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 97.0% 97.0% 94.2% 1.03× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 3.0% 3.0% 5.8% 0.52× 33.45
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Richmond Spiders under 95.5 86.0% 83.9% 94.0% 0.89× 1.19
VMI Keydets over 55.5 85.5% 83.9% 91.3% 0.92× 1.19
VMI Keydets under 75.5 85.4% 83.9% 64.7% 1.30× 1.19
Richmond Spiders over 75.5 83.8% 80.7% 51.0% 1.58× 1.24
Richmond Spiders under 92.5 77.9% 75.1% 90.8% 0.83× 1.33
VMI Keydets over 58.5 77.0% 75.1% 86.2% 0.87× 1.33
VMI Keydets under 72.5 77.0% 75.1% 55.3% 1.36× 1.33
Richmond Spiders over 78.5 75.0% 75.1% 41.6% 1.81× 1.33
Richmond Spiders under 90.5 71.3% 70.7% 88.1% 0.80× 1.41
VMI Keydets over 60.5 70.1% 70.7% 82.0% 0.86× 1.41
VMI Keydets under 70.5 70.1% 70.7% 48.7% 1.45× 1.41
Richmond Spiders over 80.5 68.0% 66.4% 35.1% 1.89× 1.51
Richmond Spiders under 88.5 63.9% 61.2% 84.8% 0.72× 1.63
VMI Keydets over 62.5 62.4% 61.2% 76.6% 0.80× 1.63
VMI Keydets under 68.5 62.5% 61.2% 41.6% 1.47× 1.63
Richmond Spiders over 82.5 60.3% 61.2% 29.2% 2.09× 1.63
Richmond Spiders under 86.5 56.0% 57.1% 80.8% 0.71× 1.75
VMI Keydets over 64.5 54.2% 52.3% 70.7% 0.74× 1.91
VMI Keydets under 66.5 54.2% 52.3% 35.3% 1.48× 1.91
Richmond Spiders over 84.5 52.2% 52.3% 23.9% 2.19× 1.91
Richmond Spiders under 85.5 51.9% 52.3% 78.6% 0.67× 1.91
VMI Keydets under 65.5 50.0% 52.3% 32.2% 1.62× 1.91
VMI Keydets over 65.5 50.0% 47.7% 67.8% 0.70× 2.09
Richmond Spiders under 84.5 47.8% 47.7% 76.1% 0.63× 2.09
Richmond Spiders over 85.5 48.1% 47.7% 21.4% 2.23× 2.09
VMI Keydets under 64.5 45.8% 47.7% 29.3% 1.63× 2.09
VMI Keydets over 66.5 45.8% 47.7% 64.7% 0.74× 2.09
Richmond Spiders over 86.5 44.0% 42.9% 19.2% 2.24× 2.33
Richmond Spiders under 82.5 39.7% 38.8% 70.8% 0.55× 2.58
VMI Keydets under 62.5 37.6% 38.8% 23.4% 1.66× 2.58
VMI Keydets over 68.5 37.5% 38.8% 58.4% 0.66× 2.58
Richmond Spiders over 88.5 36.1% 38.8% 15.2% 2.55× 2.58
Richmond Spiders under 80.5 32.0% 33.6% 64.9% 0.52× 2.98
Richmond Spiders over 90.5 28.7% 29.3% 11.9% 2.46× 3.42
VMI Keydets under 60.5 29.9% 29.3% 18.0% 1.62× 3.42
VMI Keydets over 70.5 29.9% 29.3% 51.4% 0.57× 3.42
Richmond Spiders under 78.5 25.0% 24.9% 58.4% 0.43× 4.02
VMI Keydets under 58.5 23.0% 24.9% 13.8% 1.81× 4.02
VMI Keydets over 72.5 23.0% 24.9% 44.7% 0.56× 4.02
Richmond Spiders over 92.5 22.1% 24.9% 9.2% 2.71× 4.02
Richmond Spiders under 75.5 16.2% 19.3% 49.0% 0.39× 5.18
Richmond Spiders over 95.5 14.1% 16.1% 6.0% 2.70× 6.21
VMI Keydets under 55.5 14.5% 16.1% 8.7% 1.85× 6.21
VMI Keydets over 75.5 14.6% 16.1% 35.3% 0.46× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 130.5 points 89.6% 85.0% 81.5% 1.04× 1.18
Under 170.5 points 89.4% 85.0% 88.6% 0.96× 1.18
Over 135.5 points 82.7% 80.6% 72.9% 1.11× 1.24
Under 165.5 points 82.6% 80.6% 83.4% 0.97× 1.24
Over 140.5 points 73.5% 70.8% 62.8% 1.13× 1.41
Under 160.5 points 73.4% 70.8% 76.4% 0.93× 1.41
Over 143.5 points 67.0% 65.9% 56.3% 1.17× 1.52
Under 157.5 points 66.9% 65.9% 71.6% 0.92× 1.52
Over 145.5 points 62.3% 61.5% 51.8% 1.19× 1.63
Under 155.5 points 62.2% 61.5% 68.1% 0.90× 1.63
Over 147.5 points 57.5% 56.5% 47.8% 1.18× 1.77
Under 153.5 points 57.4% 56.5% 64.6% 0.87× 1.77
Over 149.5 points 52.5% 52.3% 43.7% 1.20× 1.91
Under 151.5 points 52.4% 52.3% 60.6% 0.86× 1.91
Over 150.5 points 50.1% 52.3% 41.6% 1.26× 1.91
Under 150.5 points 49.9% 47.7% 58.4% 0.82× 2.10
Under 149.5 points 47.5% 47.7% 56.3% 0.85× 2.10
Over 151.5 points 47.6% 47.7% 39.4% 1.21× 2.10
Under 147.5 points 42.5% 43.5% 52.2% 0.83× 2.30
Over 153.5 points 42.6% 43.5% 35.4% 1.23× 2.30
Under 145.5 points 37.7% 38.5% 48.2% 0.80× 2.60
Over 155.5 points 37.8% 38.5% 31.9% 1.21× 2.60
Under 143.5 points 33.0% 34.1% 43.7% 0.78× 2.93
Over 157.5 points 33.1% 34.1% 28.4% 1.20× 2.93
Over 160.5 points 26.6% 29.2% 23.6% 1.23× 3.43
Under 140.5 points 26.5% 29.2% 37.2% 0.78× 3.43
Under 135.5 points 17.3% 19.4% 27.1% 0.72× 5.15
Over 165.5 points 17.4% 19.4% 16.6% 1.17× 5.15
Under 130.5 points 10.4% 15.0% 18.5% 0.81× 6.69
Over 170.5 points 10.6% 15.0% 11.4% 1.32× 6.69
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Richmond Spiders to win both halves 71.4% 71.9% 33.2% 2.17× 1.39
VMI Keydets to win both halves 0.6% 3.0% 14.5% 0.20× 33.81
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Richmond Spiders by 26+ 28.6% 30.8% 7.9% 3.90× 3.25
Richmond Spiders by 21-25 17.6% 16.8% 5.6% 3.01× 5.97
Richmond Spiders by 16-20 18.4% 16.8% 7.6% 2.20× 5.97
Richmond Spiders by 11-15 15.6% 16.8% 11.6% 1.45× 5.97
Richmond Spiders by 6-10 10.7% 12.3% 14.4% 0.86× 8.11
Richmond Spiders by 1-5 5.9% 7.5% 16.2% 0.46× 13.40
VMI Keydets by 1-5 2.2% 2.0% 13.2% 0.15× 49.31
VMI Keydets by 6-10 0.8% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.32
VMI Keydets by 16-20 0.0% 2.0% 3.3% 0.61× 49.33
VMI Keydets by 21-25 0.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 49.33
VMI Keydets by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.33
VMI Keydets by 11-15 0.2% 2.0% 6.1% 0.33× 49.33
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Aider Reading the Basketball model · online
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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