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Sacramento Kings v Portland Trail Blazers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Sacramento Kings win
30.4%
Draw
0.0%
Portland Trail Blazers win
69.6%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 111.07–118.33 111-118 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to score 100+ 94.7% 90.3% 85.9% 1.05× 1.11
Sacramento Kings to score 100+ 83.4% 79.3% 89.3% 0.89× 1.26
Both sides to score 100+ 79.6% 77.0% 77.5% 0.99× 1.30
Portland Trail Blazers to score 110+ 77.7% 76.9% 60.9% 1.26× 1.30
Sacramento Kings to score 110+ 54.9% 52.4% 67.0% 0.78× 1.91
Portland Trail Blazers to score 120+ 46.4% 46.9% 29.7% 1.58× 2.13
Sacramento Kings to score 120+ 23.5% 22.0% 36.5% 0.60× 4.54
Portland Trail Blazers to score 130+ 17.2% 17.5% 10.0% 1.76× 5.70
Sacramento Kings to score 130+ 5.9% 8.8% 12.8% 0.68× 11.39
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to win H1 61.4% 62.2% 44.1% 1.41× 1.61
Sacramento Kings to win H1 35.3% 37.8% 52.8% 0.72× 2.65
H1 tied 3.3% 3.9% 3.1% 1.25× 25.86
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 128.5 83.6% 82.5% 86.7% 0.95× 1.21
H1 over 104.5 80.7% 82.5% 78.3% 1.05× 1.21
H1 under 124.5 74.9% 73.5% 78.4% 0.94× 1.36
H1 over 108.5 71.2% 73.5% 67.7% 1.09× 1.36
H1 under 121.5 67.0% 67.4% 71.2% 0.95× 1.48
H1 over 111.5 62.9% 62.7% 59.0% 1.06× 1.59
H1 under 119.5 61.3% 62.7% 65.9% 0.95× 1.59
H1 over 113.5 57.0% 58.2% 52.4% 1.11× 1.72
H1 under 117.5 55.3% 58.2% 59.6% 0.98× 1.72
H1 under 116.5 52.2% 52.6% 56.6% 0.93× 1.90
H1 over 115.5 50.9% 52.6% 46.4% 1.14× 1.90
H1 under 115.5 49.2% 47.4% 53.6% 0.88× 2.11
H1 over 116.5 47.8% 47.4% 43.4% 1.09× 2.11
H1 over 117.5 44.7% 41.8% 40.4% 1.04× 2.39
H1 under 113.5 43.1% 41.8% 47.6% 0.88× 2.39
H1 over 119.5 38.7% 37.3% 34.1% 1.09× 2.68
H1 under 111.5 37.1% 37.3% 41.0% 0.91× 2.68
H1 over 121.5 33.0% 32.6% 28.8% 1.13× 3.07
H1 under 108.5 28.8% 26.5% 32.3% 0.82× 3.77
H1 over 124.5 25.1% 26.5% 21.7% 1.23× 3.77
H1 under 104.5 19.3% 17.5% 21.7% 0.80× 5.72
H1 over 128.5 16.4% 17.5% 13.3% 1.31× 5.73
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to win H2 61.2% 58.8% 44.7% 1.32× 1.70
Sacramento Kings to win H2 35.5% 41.2% 51.6% 0.80× 2.43
H2 tied 3.3% 3.9% 3.7% 1.06× 25.36
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 over 101.5 82.7% 81.8% 80.3% 1.02× 1.22
H2 under 125.5 82.2% 81.8% 81.3% 1.01× 1.22
H2 over 105.5 73.6% 72.2% 71.3% 1.01× 1.39
H2 under 121.5 73.0% 72.2% 72.0% 1.00× 1.39
H2 over 108.5 65.5% 66.4% 63.8% 1.04× 1.51
H2 under 118.5 64.8% 61.6% 63.6% 0.97× 1.62
H2 over 110.5 59.6% 57.3% 58.1% 0.99× 1.74
H2 under 116.5 58.8% 57.3% 58.1% 0.99× 1.74
H2 over 112.5 53.5% 52.4% 52.6% 1.00× 1.91
H2 under 114.5 52.7% 52.4% 52.5% 1.00× 1.91
H2 over 113.5 50.4% 52.4% 49.9% 1.05× 1.91
H2 under 113.5 49.6% 47.6% 50.1% 0.95× 2.10
H2 over 114.5 47.3% 47.6% 47.5% 1.00× 2.10
H2 under 112.5 46.5% 47.6% 47.4% 1.00× 2.10
H2 over 116.5 41.2% 42.7% 41.9% 1.02× 2.34
H2 under 110.5 40.4% 42.7% 41.9% 1.02× 2.35
H2 over 118.5 35.2% 38.4% 36.4% 1.05× 2.61
H2 under 108.5 34.5% 33.6% 36.2% 0.93× 2.97
H2 over 121.5 27.0% 27.8% 28.0% 0.99× 3.59
H2 under 105.5 26.4% 27.8% 28.7% 0.97× 3.59
H2 over 125.5 17.8% 18.2% 18.7% 0.97× 5.50
H2 under 101.5 17.3% 18.2% 19.7% 0.92× 5.50
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Trail Blazers leading at half time 61.4% 62.5% 44.1% 1.42× 1.60
Sacramento Kings leading at half time 35.3% 37.8% 52.8% 0.72× 2.64
Level at half time 3.3% 3.8% 3.1% 1.22× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Trail Blazers +18.5 96.1% 97.4% 86.4% 1.13× 1.03
Portland Trail Blazers +20.5 97.2% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
Portland Trail Blazers +16.5 94.8% 91.1% 83.5% 1.09× 1.10
Portland Trail Blazers +14.5 93.2% 91.1% 80.1% 1.14× 1.10
Portland Trail Blazers +12.5 91.1% 91.1% 76.0% 1.20× 1.10
Portland Trail Blazers +10.5 88.7% 85.9% 71.0% 1.21× 1.16
Portland Trail Blazers +9.5 87.3% 85.9% 68.7% 1.25× 1.16
Portland Trail Blazers +8.5 85.8% 85.9% 65.9% 1.30× 1.16
Portland Trail Blazers +7.5 84.2% 81.1% 63.0% 1.29× 1.23
Portland Trail Blazers +6.5 82.4% 81.1% 60.0% 1.35× 1.23
Portland Trail Blazers +5.5 80.6% 81.1% 57.1% 1.42× 1.23
Sacramento Kings +20.5 81.5% 81.1% 93.1% 0.87× 1.23
Portland Trail Blazers +4.5 78.6% 76.5% 54.1% 1.41× 1.31
Sacramento Kings +18.5 77.5% 76.5% 91.5% 0.84× 1.31
Portland Trail Blazers +3.5 76.5% 76.5% 51.6% 1.48× 1.31
Portland Trail Blazers +2.5 74.3% 71.6% 49.1% 1.46× 1.40
Sacramento Kings +16.5 73.2% 71.6% 89.7% 0.80× 1.40
Portland Trail Blazers +1.5 72.0% 71.6% 46.3% 1.55× 1.40
Sacramento Kings +14.5 68.4% 66.7% 87.0% 0.77× 1.50
Portland Trail Blazers −1.5 67.1% 66.7% 42.1% 1.58× 1.50
Portland Trail Blazers −2.5 64.4% 61.9% 39.5% 1.57× 1.62
Sacramento Kings +12.5 63.2% 61.9% 83.9% 0.74× 1.62
Portland Trail Blazers −3.5 61.7% 61.9% 36.9% 1.68× 1.62
Portland Trail Blazers −4.5 59.0% 57.1% 34.3% 1.67× 1.75
Sacramento Kings +10.5 57.8% 57.1% 80.3% 0.71× 1.75
Portland Trail Blazers −5.5 56.2% 57.1% 32.0% 1.78× 1.75
Sacramento Kings +9.5 55.1% 57.1% 78.1% 0.73× 1.75
Portland Trail Blazers −6.5 53.4% 52.4% 29.4% 1.78× 1.91
Sacramento Kings +8.5 52.3% 52.4% 75.7% 0.69× 1.91
Portland Trail Blazers −7.5 50.6% 52.4% 27.0% 1.94× 1.91
Sacramento Kings +7.5 49.4% 47.6% 73.0% 0.65× 2.10
Portland Trail Blazers −8.5 47.7% 47.6% 24.3% 1.96× 2.10
Sacramento Kings +6.5 46.6% 47.6% 70.6% 0.67× 2.10
Portland Trail Blazers −9.5 44.9% 42.9% 21.9% 1.96× 2.33
Sacramento Kings +5.5 43.8% 42.9% 68.0% 0.63× 2.33
Portland Trail Blazers −10.5 42.2% 42.9% 19.7% 2.18× 2.33
Sacramento Kings +4.5 41.0% 42.9% 65.7% 0.65× 2.33
Sacramento Kings +3.5 38.3% 38.1% 63.1% 0.60× 2.63
Portland Trail Blazers −12.5 36.8% 38.1% 16.1% 2.36× 2.63
Sacramento Kings +2.5 35.6% 38.1% 60.5% 0.63× 2.63
Sacramento Kings +1.5 32.9% 33.3% 57.9% 0.57× 3.01
Portland Trail Blazers −14.5 31.6% 33.3% 13.0% 2.56× 3.01
Sacramento Kings −1.5 28.0% 28.4% 53.7% 0.53× 3.53
Portland Trail Blazers −16.5 26.8% 28.4% 10.3% 2.74× 3.53
Sacramento Kings −2.5 25.7% 28.4% 50.9% 0.56× 3.53
Sacramento Kings −3.5 23.5% 23.5% 48.4% 0.49× 4.25
Portland Trail Blazers −18.5 22.5% 23.5% 8.5% 2.76× 4.25
Sacramento Kings −4.5 21.4% 23.5% 46.0% 0.51× 4.25
Sacramento Kings −5.5 19.4% 18.9% 42.9% 0.44× 5.29
Portland Trail Blazers −20.5 18.5% 18.9% 6.9% 2.74× 5.29
Sacramento Kings −6.5 17.6% 18.9% 40.0% 0.47× 5.29
Sacramento Kings −7.5 15.8% 18.9% 37.0% 0.51× 5.30
Sacramento Kings −8.5 14.2% 14.1% 34.1% 0.41× 7.09
Sacramento Kings −9.5 12.7% 14.1% 31.3% 0.45× 7.09
Sacramento Kings −10.5 11.3% 14.1% 29.0% 0.49× 7.09
Sacramento Kings −12.5 8.9% 8.9% 24.0% 0.37× 11.25
Sacramento Kings −14.5 6.8% 8.9% 19.9% 0.45× 11.25
Sacramento Kings −16.5 5.2% 8.9% 16.5% 0.54× 11.25
Sacramento Kings −18.5 3.9% 2.6% 13.6% 0.19× 38.73
Sacramento Kings −20.5 2.8% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.73
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1st half highest scoring 56.7% 52.6% 53.5% 0.98× 1.90
2nd half highest scoring 43.3% 47.4% 46.5% 1.02× 2.11
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.3% 27.4% 29.2% 0.94× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 27.9% 27.4% 27.5% 1.00× 3.65
Q2 highest scoring 26.6% 27.4% 26.3% 1.04× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 17.2% 18.3% 17.0% 1.08× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Trail Blazers at HT / Portland Trail Blazers at FT 52.7% 51.1% 30.9% 1.65× 1.96
Sacramento Kings at HT / Sacramento Kings at FT 20.5% 24.4% 40.8% 0.60× 4.10
Sacramento Kings at HT / Portland Trail Blazers at FT 14.8% 12.2% 12.0% 1.02× 8.17
Portland Trail Blazers at HT / Sacramento Kings at FT 8.7% 8.3% 13.3% 0.62× 12.08
Level at HT / Portland Trail Blazers at FT 2.2% 2.1% 1.4% 1.50× 47.75
Level at HT / Sacramento Kings at FT 1.1% 2.1% 1.7% 1.22× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to win 69.6% 64.5% 44.3% 1.46× 1.55
Sacramento Kings to win 30.4% 35.5% 55.7% 0.64× 2.82
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sacramento Kings even 50.0% 50.5% 49.7% 1.02× 1.98
Portland Trail Blazers even 50.0% 50.5% 50.3% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 51.2% 50.5% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
Sacramento Kings odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.3% 0.98× 2.02
Portland Trail Blazers odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.7% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.8% 49.5% 49.0% 1.01× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 93.8% 94.0% 94.8% 0.99× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 6.2% 6.0% 5.2% 1.16× 16.65
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to win Q1 56.6% 57.3% 44.1% 1.30× 1.75
Sacramento Kings to win Q1 38.7% 38.3% 51.3% 0.75× 2.61
Q1 tied 4.7% 4.2% 4.6% 0.90× 23.94
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 66.5 84.0% 82.8% 86.1% 0.96× 1.21
Q1 over 50.5 81.3% 82.8% 79.4% 1.04× 1.21
Q1 under 63.5 74.0% 72.7% 76.8% 0.95× 1.38
Q1 over 53.5 70.3% 72.7% 68.2% 1.07× 1.38
Q1 under 61.5 65.8% 67.6% 68.5% 0.99× 1.48
Q1 over 55.5 61.7% 61.7% 59.2% 1.04× 1.62
Q1 under 59.5 56.8% 58.6% 60.0% 0.98× 1.71
Q1 over 57.5 52.5% 52.7% 49.6% 1.06× 1.90
Q1 under 58.5 52.2% 52.7% 55.7% 0.95× 1.90
Q1 over 58.5 47.8% 47.3% 44.3% 1.07× 2.11
Q1 under 57.5 47.5% 47.3% 50.4% 0.94× 2.11
Q1 over 59.5 43.2% 41.4% 40.0% 1.03× 2.42
Q1 under 55.5 38.3% 38.3% 40.8% 0.94× 2.61
Q1 over 61.5 34.2% 32.4% 31.5% 1.03× 3.08
Q1 under 53.5 29.7% 27.3% 31.8% 0.86× 3.66
Q1 over 63.5 26.0% 27.3% 23.2% 1.17× 3.66
Q1 under 50.5 18.7% 17.2% 20.6% 0.84× 5.83
Q1 over 66.5 16.0% 17.2% 13.9% 1.23× 5.83
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to win Q2 56.5% 59.4% 46.2% 1.28× 1.68
Sacramento Kings to win Q2 38.8% 35.8% 49.3% 0.73× 2.80
Q2 tied 4.6% 4.4% 4.5% 0.98× 22.88
Q2 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 66.5 84.5% 83.1% 86.5% 0.96× 1.20
Q2 over 50.5 80.1% 83.1% 78.1% 1.06× 1.20
Q2 over 49.5 83.2% 83.0% 81.8% 1.02× 1.21
Q2 under 65.5 81.8% 83.0% 83.6% 0.99× 1.21
Q2 under 63.5 74.7% 73.0% 77.5% 0.94× 1.37
Q2 over 52.5 73.0% 72.0% 70.3% 1.02× 1.39
Q2 under 62.5 71.1% 72.0% 74.4% 0.97× 1.39
Q2 over 53.5 69.0% 67.7% 65.8% 1.03× 1.48
Q2 under 61.5 66.8% 67.7% 70.4% 0.96× 1.48
Q2 over 55.5 60.4% 62.0% 56.3% 1.10× 1.61
Q2 over 54.5 64.8% 60.7% 61.1% 0.99× 1.65
Q2 under 60.5 62.7% 60.7% 65.7% 0.92× 1.65
Q2 over 56.5 55.8% 58.2% 51.7% 1.12× 1.72
Q2 under 59.5 58.0% 57.8% 61.9% 0.93× 1.73
Q2 under 58.5 53.5% 52.7% 57.3% 0.92× 1.90
Q2 over 57.5 51.1% 52.7% 47.3% 1.11× 1.90
Q2 under 57.5 48.9% 47.3% 52.7% 0.90× 2.11
Q2 over 58.5 46.5% 47.3% 42.7% 1.11× 2.11
Q2 over 59.5 42.0% 42.2% 38.1% 1.11× 2.37
Q2 under 56.5 44.2% 41.8% 48.3% 0.87× 2.39
Q2 over 60.5 37.3% 39.3% 34.3% 1.15× 2.55
Q2 under 54.5 35.2% 39.3% 38.9% 1.01× 2.55
Q2 under 55.5 39.6% 38.0% 43.7% 0.87× 2.63
Q2 over 61.5 33.2% 32.3% 29.6% 1.09× 3.09
Q2 under 53.5 31.0% 32.3% 34.2% 0.95× 3.10
Q2 over 62.5 28.9% 28.0% 25.6% 1.09× 3.57
Q2 under 52.5 27.0% 28.0% 29.7% 0.94× 3.57
Q2 over 63.5 25.3% 27.0% 22.5% 1.20× 3.71
Q2 over 65.5 18.2% 17.0% 16.4% 1.04× 5.88
Q2 under 49.5 16.8% 17.0% 18.2% 0.93× 5.88
Q2 under 50.5 19.9% 16.9% 21.9% 0.77× 5.93
Q2 over 66.5 15.5% 16.9% 13.5% 1.25× 5.93
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to win Q3 56.6% 56.8% 44.3% 1.28× 1.76
Sacramento Kings to win Q3 38.8% 38.8% 50.9% 0.76× 2.58
Q3 tied 4.6% 4.3% 4.9% 0.88× 23.43
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 66.5 83.8% 82.3% 84.7% 0.97× 1.22
Q3 over 50.5 82.0% 82.3% 79.7% 1.03× 1.22
Q3 under 63.5 73.6% 71.8% 75.9% 0.95× 1.39
Q3 over 53.5 71.2% 71.8% 68.3% 1.05× 1.39
Q3 under 61.5 65.3% 67.8% 67.7% 1.00× 1.48
Q3 over 55.5 62.6% 61.9% 59.9% 1.03× 1.61
Q3 under 59.5 56.2% 58.4% 59.0% 0.99× 1.71
Q3 over 57.5 53.3% 52.3% 50.2% 1.04× 1.91
Q3 under 58.5 51.4% 52.3% 54.8% 0.95× 1.91
Q3 over 58.5 48.6% 47.7% 45.2% 1.06× 2.10
Q3 under 57.5 46.7% 47.7% 49.8% 0.96× 2.10
Q3 over 59.5 43.9% 41.6% 41.0% 1.02× 2.40
Q3 under 55.5 37.4% 38.1% 40.1% 0.95× 2.63
Q3 over 61.5 34.7% 32.2% 32.3% 1.00× 3.10
Q3 under 53.5 28.8% 28.2% 31.7% 0.89× 3.55
Q3 over 63.5 26.4% 28.2% 24.1% 1.17× 3.55
Q3 under 50.5 18.0% 17.7% 20.3% 0.87× 5.66
Q3 over 66.5 16.2% 17.7% 15.3% 1.16× 5.66
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to win Q4 56.3% 52.0% 46.4% 1.12× 1.92
Sacramento Kings to win Q4 38.9% 42.4% 48.3% 0.88× 2.36
Q4 tied 4.8% 5.2% 5.3% 0.98× 19.28
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 63.5 82.4% 82.0% 83.7% 0.98× 1.22
Q4 over 47.5 81.9% 82.0% 79.0% 1.04× 1.22
Q4 under 60.5 72.1% 71.5% 74.2% 0.96× 1.40
Q4 over 50.5 71.5% 71.5% 68.5% 1.04× 1.40
Q4 under 58.5 63.9% 61.4% 66.2% 0.93× 1.63
Q4 over 52.5 63.2% 61.4% 60.4% 1.02× 1.63
Q4 under 56.5 54.9% 52.5% 57.2% 0.92× 1.91
Q4 over 54.5 54.2% 52.5% 51.4% 1.02× 1.91
Q4 under 55.5 50.4% 52.5% 52.9% 0.99× 1.91
Q4 over 55.5 49.6% 47.5% 47.1% 1.01× 2.11
Q4 under 54.5 45.8% 47.5% 48.6% 0.98× 2.11
Q4 over 56.5 45.1% 47.5% 42.8% 1.11× 2.11
Q4 under 52.5 36.8% 38.6% 39.6% 0.97× 2.59
Q4 over 58.5 36.1% 38.6% 33.8% 1.14× 2.59
Q4 under 50.5 28.5% 28.5% 31.5% 0.91× 3.51
Q4 over 60.5 27.9% 28.5% 25.8% 1.11× 3.51
Q4 under 47.5 18.1% 18.0% 21.0% 0.86× 5.56
Q4 over 63.5 17.6% 18.0% 16.3% 1.11× 5.56
Team total 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sacramento Kings under 121.5 81.3% 80.7% 69.6% 1.16× 1.24
Portland Trail Blazers under 128.5 80.6% 80.7% 88.6% 0.91× 1.24
Portland Trail Blazers over 108.5 80.2% 80.7% 64.0% 1.26× 1.24
Sacramento Kings under 123.5 80.2% 80.3% 74.4% 1.08× 1.25
Portland Trail Blazers under 126.5 80.0% 80.3% 85.3% 0.94× 1.25
Portland Trail Blazers over 106.5 79.2% 78.3% 68.9% 1.14× 1.28
Sacramento Kings over 103.5 78.9% 78.3% 82.1% 0.95× 1.28
Sacramento Kings over 101.5 78.9% 75.1% 86.0% 0.87× 1.33
Sacramento Kings under 120.5 72.7% 71.9% 66.3% 1.08× 1.39
Portland Trail Blazers over 109.5 71.4% 71.8% 60.9% 1.18× 1.39
Sacramento Kings under 118.5 73.8% 70.7% 60.3% 1.17× 1.41
Portland Trail Blazers under 125.5 72.7% 70.7% 83.4% 0.85× 1.41
Portland Trail Blazers over 111.5 72.3% 70.7% 54.6% 1.30× 1.41
Sacramento Kings over 104.5 70.8% 70.7% 79.8% 0.89× 1.41
Sacramento Kings under 116.5 68.0% 66.4% 54.7% 1.21× 1.51
Portland Trail Blazers over 113.5 66.3% 66.4% 48.0% 1.38× 1.51
Portland Trail Blazers under 123.5 66.7% 66.4% 79.5% 0.84× 1.51
Sacramento Kings over 106.5 64.7% 61.2% 75.1% 0.81× 1.63
Sacramento Kings under 114.5 61.8% 61.2% 48.6% 1.26× 1.63
Portland Trail Blazers under 121.5 60.3% 61.2% 74.7% 0.82× 1.63
Portland Trail Blazers over 115.5 59.9% 57.1% 41.4% 1.38× 1.75
Sacramento Kings over 108.5 58.2% 57.1% 69.9% 0.82× 1.75
Sacramento Kings under 112.5 55.2% 57.1% 42.3% 1.35× 1.75
Portland Trail Blazers under 119.5 53.6% 52.3% 70.3% 0.74× 1.91
Sacramento Kings under 111.5 51.8% 52.3% 38.9% 1.34× 1.91
Sacramento Kings over 110.5 51.5% 52.3% 64.1% 0.82× 1.91
Portland Trail Blazers over 117.5 53.2% 52.3% 35.6% 1.47× 1.91
Portland Trail Blazers under 118.5 50.2% 52.3% 67.4% 0.78× 1.91
Sacramento Kings under 113.5 51.0% 52.2% 45.7% 1.14× 1.91
Portland Trail Blazers under 116.5 50.5% 52.2% 61.5% 0.85× 1.91
Portland Trail Blazers over 116.5 49.5% 47.8% 38.5% 1.24× 2.09
Sacramento Kings over 113.5 49.0% 47.8% 54.3% 0.88× 2.09
Portland Trail Blazers over 118.5 49.8% 47.7% 32.6% 1.46× 2.09
Sacramento Kings over 111.5 48.2% 47.7% 61.1% 0.78× 2.09
Sacramento Kings under 110.5 48.5% 47.7% 35.9% 1.33× 2.09
Portland Trail Blazers under 117.5 46.8% 47.7% 64.4% 0.74× 2.09
Portland Trail Blazers over 119.5 46.4% 47.7% 29.7% 1.61× 2.09
Sacramento Kings over 112.5 44.8% 42.9% 57.7% 0.74× 2.33
Sacramento Kings under 108.5 41.8% 42.9% 30.1% 1.42× 2.33
Portland Trail Blazers under 115.5 40.1% 42.9% 58.6% 0.73× 2.33
Portland Trail Blazers over 121.5 39.7% 38.8% 25.3% 1.54× 2.58
Sacramento Kings over 114.5 38.2% 38.8% 51.4% 0.76× 2.58
Sacramento Kings under 106.5 35.3% 38.8% 24.9% 1.56× 2.58
Portland Trail Blazers under 113.5 33.7% 33.6% 52.0% 0.65× 2.98
Portland Trail Blazers over 123.5 33.3% 33.6% 20.5% 1.64× 2.98
Sacramento Kings over 116.5 32.0% 33.6% 45.3% 0.74× 2.98
Sacramento Kings under 104.5 29.2% 29.3% 20.2% 1.45× 3.42
Portland Trail Blazers over 125.5 27.3% 29.3% 16.6% 1.76× 3.42
Portland Trail Blazers under 111.5 27.7% 29.3% 45.4% 0.64× 3.42
Sacramento Kings over 118.5 26.2% 29.3% 39.7% 0.74× 3.42
Portland Trail Blazers under 109.5 28.6% 28.2% 39.1% 0.72× 3.55
Sacramento Kings over 120.5 27.3% 28.2% 33.7% 0.84× 3.55
Sacramento Kings under 101.5 21.1% 24.9% 14.0% 1.77× 4.02
Sacramento Kings under 103.5 21.1% 21.7% 17.9% 1.22× 4.60
Portland Trail Blazers under 106.5 20.8% 21.7% 31.1% 0.70× 4.60
Portland Trail Blazers over 126.5 20.0% 19.7% 14.7% 1.34× 5.07
Sacramento Kings over 123.5 19.8% 19.7% 25.6% 0.77× 5.07
Portland Trail Blazers under 108.5 19.8% 19.3% 36.0% 0.54× 5.18
Portland Trail Blazers over 128.5 19.5% 19.3% 11.5% 1.69× 5.18
Sacramento Kings over 121.5 18.7% 19.3% 30.4% 0.63× 5.18
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 249.5 points 86.3% 85.0% 85.3% 1.00× 1.18
Over 209.5 points 86.0% 85.0% 82.9% 1.03× 1.18
Under 244.5 points 79.4% 75.6% 79.5% 0.95× 1.32
Over 214.5 points 79.1% 75.6% 75.1% 1.01× 1.32
Under 239.5 points 70.9% 70.8% 72.5% 0.98× 1.41
Over 219.5 points 70.4% 70.8% 66.1% 1.07× 1.41
Under 236.5 points 65.0% 65.9% 67.3% 0.98× 1.52
Over 222.5 points 64.6% 61.5% 60.4% 1.02× 1.63
Over 224.5 points 60.5% 61.5% 56.5% 1.09× 1.63
Under 234.5 points 60.9% 61.5% 63.3% 0.97× 1.63
Over 226.5 points 56.3% 56.5% 52.7% 1.07× 1.77
Under 232.5 points 56.7% 56.5% 59.4% 0.95× 1.77
Over 228.5 points 52.0% 52.3% 48.7% 1.07× 1.91
Under 230.5 points 52.4% 52.3% 55.4% 0.94× 1.91
Under 229.5 points 50.2% 52.3% 53.3% 0.98× 1.91
Over 229.5 points 49.8% 47.7% 46.7% 1.02× 2.10
Under 228.5 points 48.0% 47.7% 51.3% 0.93× 2.10
Over 230.5 points 47.6% 47.7% 44.6% 1.07× 2.10
Under 226.5 points 43.7% 43.5% 47.3% 0.92× 2.30
Over 232.5 points 43.3% 43.5% 40.6% 1.07× 2.30
Under 224.5 points 39.5% 38.5% 43.5% 0.89× 2.60
Over 234.5 points 39.1% 38.5% 36.7% 1.05× 2.60
Under 222.5 points 35.4% 38.5% 39.6% 0.97× 2.60
Over 236.5 points 35.0% 34.1% 32.7% 1.04× 2.93
Under 219.5 points 29.6% 29.2% 33.9% 0.86× 3.43
Over 239.5 points 29.1% 29.2% 27.5% 1.06× 3.43
Under 214.5 points 20.9% 24.4% 24.9% 0.98× 4.10
Over 244.5 points 20.6% 24.4% 20.5% 1.19× 4.10
Under 209.5 points 14.0% 15.0% 17.1% 0.87× 6.68
Over 249.5 points 13.7% 15.0% 14.7% 1.02× 6.68
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Trail Blazers to win both halves 35.5% 36.3% 17.8% 2.03× 2.76
Sacramento Kings to win both halves 10.6% 14.0% 25.2% 0.56× 7.13
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portland Trail Blazers by 1-5 13.4% 12.3% 12.3% 1.01× 8.11
Portland Trail Blazers by 6-10 14.0% 12.3% 12.3% 1.00× 8.11
Portland Trail Blazers by 11-15 13.0% 12.3% 8.0% 1.54× 8.11
Sacramento Kings by 1-5 11.0% 12.3% 12.8% 0.96× 8.11
Portland Trail Blazers by 16-20 10.7% 12.3% 4.9% 2.54× 8.11
Portland Trail Blazers by 26+ 10.7% 12.3% 3.9% 3.19× 8.11
Sacramento Kings by 6-10 8.1% 7.5% 13.9% 0.54× 13.40
Portland Trail Blazers by 21-25 7.8% 7.5% 3.0% 2.45× 13.40
Sacramento Kings by 11-15 5.3% 7.5% 10.8% 0.69× 13.40
Sacramento Kings by 16-20 3.1% 2.0% 7.3% 0.28× 49.30
Sacramento Kings by 21-25 1.6% 2.0% 4.7% 0.43× 49.31
Sacramento Kings by 26+ 1.2% 2.0% 6.2% 0.33× 49.32
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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