San Antonio Spurs v Sacramento Kings — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated 3 Sep 2026, 23:45

San Antonio Spurs

20:00

Sacramento Kings

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

San Antonio Spurs win

93.0%

Draw

0.0%

Sacramento Kings win

7.0%

9307

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	9307	125.43–104.48	125-104 0%	49%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Antonio Spurs to score 100+	98.7%	94.9%	89.3%	1.06×	1.05
San Antonio Spurs to score 110+	91.4%	90.3%	67.0%	1.35×	1.11
San Antonio Spurs to score 120+	69.7%	63.9%	36.5%	1.75×	1.57
Sacramento Kings to score 100+	66.3%	63.8%	85.9%	0.74×	1.57
Both sides to score 100+	65.7%	63.8%	77.5%	0.82×	1.57
San Antonio Spurs to score 130+	36.8%	36.0%	12.8%	2.80×	2.78
Sacramento Kings to score 110+	33.0%	31.4%	60.9%	0.51×	3.19
Sacramento Kings to score 120+	9.7%	8.8%	29.7%	0.30×	11.34
Sacramento Kings to score 130+	1.6%	0.4%	10.0%	0.04×	283.05

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Antonio Spurs to win H1	81.7%	83.6%	52.8%	1.58×	1.20
Sacramento Kings to win H1	16.1%	16.9%	44.1%	0.38×	5.93
H1 tied	2.3%	3.9%	3.1%	1.25×	25.87

H1 total 40

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 over 103.5	82.3%	83.2%	80.7%	1.03×	1.20
H1 under 127.5	81.6%	83.2%	84.8%	0.98×	1.20
H1 under 128.5	83.1%	82.5%	86.7%	0.95×	1.21
H1 over 104.5	81.2%	82.5%	78.3%	1.05×	1.21
H1 over 107.5	73.3%	74.0%	70.4%	1.05×	1.35
H1 under 123.5	72.4%	74.0%	76.0%	0.97×	1.35
H1 under 124.5	74.2%	73.5%	78.4%	0.94×	1.36
H1 over 108.5	71.9%	73.5%	67.7%	1.09×	1.36
H1 over 110.5	65.3%	68.0%	61.9%	1.10×	1.47
H1 under 121.5	66.3%	67.4%	71.2%	0.95×	1.48
H1 under 120.5	64.3%	63.3%	68.4%	0.92×	1.58
H1 over 111.5	63.6%	62.7%	59.0%	1.06×	1.59
H1 under 119.5	60.5%	62.7%	65.9%	0.95×	1.59
H1 over 113.5	57.7%	58.2%	52.4%	1.11×	1.72
H1 over 112.5	59.6%	58.2%	55.8%	1.04×	1.72
H1 under 118.5	58.5%	58.2%	62.9%	0.92×	1.72
H1 under 117.5	54.5%	52.6%	59.6%	0.88×	1.90
H1 over 115.5	51.6%	52.6%	46.4%	1.14×	1.90
H1 under 116.5	51.4%	52.6%	56.6%	0.93×	1.90
H1 over 114.5	53.6%	52.5%	49.6%	1.06×	1.90
H1 under 114.5	46.4%	47.5%	50.4%	0.94×	2.11
H1 under 115.5	48.4%	47.4%	53.6%	0.88×	2.11
H1 over 116.5	48.6%	47.4%	43.4%	1.09×	2.11
H1 over 117.5	45.5%	47.4%	40.4%	1.17×	2.11
H1 over 118.5	41.5%	41.9%	37.1%	1.13×	2.39
H1 under 112.5	40.4%	41.8%	44.2%	0.95×	2.39
H1 under 113.5	42.3%	41.8%	47.6%	0.88×	2.39
H1 over 119.5	39.5%	37.3%	34.1%	1.09×	2.68
H1 under 111.5	36.4%	37.3%	41.0%	0.91×	2.68
H1 over 120.5	35.7%	36.7%	31.6%	1.16×	2.72
H1 over 121.5	33.7%	32.6%	28.8%	1.13×	3.07
H1 under 110.5	34.7%	32.0%	38.1%	0.84×	3.13
H1 under 108.5	28.1%	26.5%	32.3%	0.82×	3.77
H1 over 124.5	25.8%	26.5%	21.7%	1.23×	3.77
H1 over 123.5	27.6%	26.0%	24.0%	1.08×	3.84
H1 under 107.5	26.7%	26.0%	29.6%	0.88×	3.84
H1 under 104.5	18.8%	17.5%	21.7%	0.80×	5.72
H1 over 128.5	16.9%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
H1 over 127.5	18.4%	16.8%	15.2%	1.11×	5.96
H1 under 103.5	17.7%	16.8%	19.3%	0.87×	5.96

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Antonio Spurs to win H2	81.4%	79.5%	51.6%	1.54×	1.26
Sacramento Kings to win H2	16.3%	20.4%	44.7%	0.46×	4.90
H2 tied	2.3%	3.9%	3.7%	1.06×	25.37

H2 total 40

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 under 126.5	83.7%	81.8%	83.2%	0.98×	1.22
H2 over 102.5	81.1%	81.8%	78.5%	1.04×	1.22
H2 over 101.5	82.2%	81.5%	80.3%	1.02×	1.23
H2 under 125.5	82.1%	81.5%	81.3%	1.00×	1.23
H2 over 105.5	73.1%	72.5%	71.3%	1.02×	1.38
H2 under 121.5	73.0%	72.5%	72.0%	1.01×	1.38
H2 under 122.5	74.8%	72.2%	74.4%	0.97×	1.39
H2 over 106.5	71.6%	72.2%	68.8%	1.05×	1.39
H2 under 119.5	66.9%	66.4%	66.4%	1.00×	1.51
H2 over 108.5	65.0%	64.4%	63.8%	1.01×	1.55
H2 under 118.5	64.9%	62.6%	63.6%	0.98×	1.60
H2 over 109.5	63.3%	61.6%	60.9%	1.01×	1.62
H2 under 117.5	61.1%	61.6%	61.1%	1.01×	1.62
H2 over 110.5	59.2%	58.0%	58.1%	1.00×	1.72
H2 under 116.5	59.0%	58.0%	58.1%	1.00×	1.72
H2 over 111.5	57.3%	57.3%	55.3%	1.04×	1.74
H2 under 115.5	55.0%	57.3%	55.4%	1.03×	1.74
H2 under 114.5	51.9%	52.4%	52.5%	1.00×	1.91
H2 over 113.5	51.2%	52.4%	49.9%	1.05×	1.91
H2 over 112.5	53.1%	52.1%	52.6%	0.99×	1.92
H2 under 112.5	46.9%	48.0%	47.4%	1.01×	2.09
H2 under 113.5	48.8%	47.6%	50.1%	0.95×	2.10
H2 over 114.5	48.1%	47.6%	47.5%	1.00×	2.10
H2 over 115.5	45.0%	42.7%	44.6%	0.96×	2.34
H2 under 111.5	42.7%	42.7%	44.7%	0.96×	2.34
H2 over 116.5	41.0%	42.0%	41.9%	1.00×	2.38
H2 under 110.5	40.8%	42.0%	41.9%	1.00×	2.38
H2 over 117.5	38.9%	38.4%	38.9%	0.99×	2.61
H2 under 109.5	36.7%	38.4%	39.1%	0.98×	2.61
H2 over 118.5	35.1%	37.4%	36.4%	1.03×	2.67
H2 under 108.5	35.0%	35.6%	36.2%	0.98×	2.81
H2 over 119.5	33.1%	33.6%	33.6%	1.00×	2.97
H2 under 106.5	28.4%	27.8%	31.2%	0.89×	3.59
H2 over 122.5	25.2%	27.8%	25.6%	1.09×	3.59
H2 under 105.5	26.9%	27.5%	28.7%	0.96×	3.63
H2 over 121.5	27.0%	27.5%	28.0%	0.98×	3.63
H2 under 101.5	17.8%	18.5%	19.7%	0.94×	5.41
H2 over 125.5	17.9%	18.5%	18.7%	0.99×	5.41
H2 under 102.5	18.9%	18.2%	21.5%	0.85×	5.50
H2 over 126.5	16.3%	18.2%	16.8%	1.08×	5.50

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Antonio Spurs leading at half time	81.7%	83.3%	52.8%	1.58×	1.20
Sacramento Kings leading at half time	16.1%	17.0%	44.1%	0.38×	5.89
Level at half time	2.3%	3.8%	3.1%	1.22×	26.43

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Antonio Spurs +16.5	99.5%	97.4%	89.7%	1.09×	1.03
San Antonio Spurs +18.5	99.7%	97.4%	91.5%	1.06×	1.03
San Antonio Spurs +20.5	99.8%	97.4%	93.1%	1.05×	1.03
San Antonio Spurs +4.5	96.0%	97.4%	65.7%	1.48×	1.03
San Antonio Spurs +5.5	96.6%	97.4%	68.0%	1.43×	1.03
San Antonio Spurs +6.5	97.1%	97.4%	70.6%	1.38×	1.03
San Antonio Spurs +7.5	97.5%	97.4%	73.0%	1.33×	1.03
San Antonio Spurs +8.5	97.9%	97.4%	75.7%	1.29×	1.03
San Antonio Spurs +9.5	98.2%	97.4%	78.1%	1.25×	1.03
San Antonio Spurs +10.5	98.5%	97.4%	80.3%	1.21×	1.03
San Antonio Spurs +12.5	98.9%	97.4%	83.9%	1.16×	1.03
San Antonio Spurs +14.5	99.3%	97.4%	87.0%	1.12×	1.03
San Antonio Spurs +3.5	95.4%	97.4%	63.1%	1.54×	1.03
San Antonio Spurs +2.5	94.7%	91.1%	60.5%	1.51×	1.10
San Antonio Spurs +1.5	93.9%	91.1%	57.9%	1.57×	1.10
San Antonio Spurs −1.5	91.9%	91.1%	53.7%	1.70×	1.10
San Antonio Spurs −2.5	90.7%	91.1%	50.9%	1.79×	1.10
San Antonio Spurs −3.5	89.4%	85.9%	48.4%	1.77×	1.16
San Antonio Spurs −4.5	88.0%	85.9%	46.0%	1.87×	1.16
San Antonio Spurs −5.5	86.5%	85.9%	42.9%	2.00×	1.16
San Antonio Spurs −6.5	84.9%	81.1%	40.0%	2.03×	1.23
San Antonio Spurs −7.5	83.1%	81.1%	37.0%	2.19×	1.23
San Antonio Spurs −8.5	81.3%	81.1%	34.1%	2.38×	1.23
San Antonio Spurs −9.5	79.3%	76.5%	31.3%	2.45×	1.31
San Antonio Spurs −10.5	77.2%	76.5%	29.0%	2.64×	1.31
San Antonio Spurs −12.5	72.7%	71.6%	24.0%	2.98×	1.40
San Antonio Spurs −14.5	67.8%	66.7%	19.9%	3.36×	1.50
San Antonio Spurs −16.5	62.6%	61.9%	16.5%	3.76×	1.62
San Antonio Spurs −18.5	57.3%	57.1%	13.6%	4.19×	1.75
San Antonio Spurs −20.5	51.7%	52.4%	10.9%	4.81×	1.91
Sacramento Kings +20.5	48.3%	47.6%	89.1%	0.53×	2.10
Sacramento Kings +18.5	42.7%	42.9%	86.4%	0.50×	2.33
Sacramento Kings +16.5	37.4%	38.1%	83.5%	0.46×	2.63
Sacramento Kings +14.5	32.2%	33.3%	80.1%	0.42×	3.01
Sacramento Kings +12.5	27.3%	28.4%	76.0%	0.37×	3.53
Sacramento Kings +10.5	22.8%	23.5%	71.0%	0.33×	4.25
Sacramento Kings +9.5	20.7%	23.5%	68.7%	0.34×	4.25
Sacramento Kings +8.5	18.7%	18.9%	65.9%	0.29×	5.29
Sacramento Kings +7.5	16.9%	18.9%	63.0%	0.30×	5.29
Sacramento Kings +6.5	15.1%	18.9%	60.0%	0.31×	5.30
Sacramento Kings +5.5	13.5%	14.1%	57.1%	0.25×	7.09
Sacramento Kings +4.5	12.0%	14.1%	54.1%	0.26×	7.09
Sacramento Kings +3.5	10.6%	14.1%	51.6%	0.27×	7.09
Sacramento Kings +1.5	8.1%	8.9%	46.3%	0.19×	11.25
Sacramento Kings +2.5	9.3%	8.9%	49.1%	0.18×	11.25
Sacramento Kings −1.5	6.1%	8.9%	42.1%	0.21×	11.25
Sacramento Kings −2.5	5.3%	8.9%	39.5%	0.22×	11.25
Sacramento Kings −3.5	4.6%	2.6%	36.9%	0.07×	38.72
Sacramento Kings −4.5	4.0%	2.6%	34.3%	0.08×	38.72
Sacramento Kings −5.5	3.4%	2.6%	32.0%	0.08×	38.73
Sacramento Kings −6.5	2.9%	2.6%	29.4%	0.09×	38.73
Sacramento Kings −7.5	2.5%	2.6%	27.0%	0.10×	38.73
Sacramento Kings −8.5	2.1%	2.6%	24.3%	0.11×	38.73
Sacramento Kings −9.5	1.8%	2.6%	21.9%	0.12×	38.73
Sacramento Kings −10.5	1.5%	2.6%	19.7%	0.13×	38.73
Sacramento Kings −12.5	1.1%	2.6%	16.1%	0.16×	38.74
Sacramento Kings −14.5	0.7%	2.6%	13.0%	0.20×	38.74
Sacramento Kings −16.5	0.5%	2.6%	10.3%	0.25×	38.74
Sacramento Kings −18.5	0.3%	2.6%	8.5%	0.30×	38.74
Sacramento Kings −20.5	0.2%	2.6%	6.9%	0.37×	38.74

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	56.7%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
2nd half highest scoring	43.3%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 highest scoring	28.3%	27.4%	29.2%	0.94×	3.65
Q3 highest scoring	27.9%	27.4%	27.5%	1.00×	3.65
Q2 highest scoring	26.6%	27.4%	26.3%	1.04×	3.65
Q4 highest scoring	17.2%	18.3%	17.0%	1.08×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Antonio Spurs at HT / San Antonio Spurs at FT	79.4%	78.1%	40.8%	1.92×	1.28
Sacramento Kings at HT / San Antonio Spurs at FT	11.7%	12.2%	13.3%	0.92×	8.18
Sacramento Kings at HT / Sacramento Kings at FT	4.4%	2.1%	30.9%	0.07×	47.72
San Antonio Spurs at HT / Sacramento Kings at FT	2.3%	2.1%	12.0%	0.17×	47.75
Level at HT / San Antonio Spurs at FT	2.0%	2.1%	1.7%	1.22×	47.76
Level at HT / Sacramento Kings at FT	0.3%	2.1%	1.4%	1.49×	47.79

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Antonio Spurs to win	93.0%	90.6%	55.7%	1.63×	1.10
Sacramento Kings to win	7.0%	9.4%	44.3%	0.21×	10.66

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Antonio Spurs odd	50.0%	50.5%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
Sacramento Kings even	50.0%	50.5%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
Total points odd	50.5%	50.5%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
San Antonio Spurs even	50.0%	49.5%	49.7%	1.00×	2.02
Sacramento Kings odd	50.0%	49.5%	49.7%	1.00×	2.02
Total points even	49.5%	49.5%	49.0%	1.01×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	97.7%	97.0%	94.8%	1.02×	1.03
Match to go to overtime	2.3%	3.0%	5.2%	0.58×	33.50

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Antonio Spurs to win Q1	72.1%	73.8%	51.3%	1.44×	1.36
Sacramento Kings to win Q1	24.0%	22.1%	44.1%	0.50×	4.52
Q1 tied	3.9%	4.2%	4.6%	0.90×	23.97

Q1 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 under 66.5	83.7%	82.8%	86.1%	0.96×	1.21
Q1 over 50.5	81.7%	82.8%	79.4%	1.04×	1.21
Q1 under 63.5	73.5%	72.7%	76.8%	0.95×	1.38
Q1 over 53.5	70.9%	72.7%	68.2%	1.07×	1.38
Q1 under 61.5	65.3%	67.6%	68.5%	0.99×	1.48
Q1 over 55.5	62.3%	61.7%	59.2%	1.04×	1.62
Q1 under 59.5	56.2%	58.6%	60.0%	0.98×	1.71
Q1 over 57.5	53.1%	52.7%	49.6%	1.06×	1.90
Q1 under 58.5	51.6%	52.7%	55.7%	0.95×	1.90
Q1 over 58.5	48.4%	47.3%	44.3%	1.07×	2.11
Q1 under 57.5	46.9%	47.3%	50.4%	0.94×	2.11
Q1 over 59.5	43.8%	41.4%	40.0%	1.03×	2.42
Q1 under 55.5	37.7%	38.3%	40.8%	0.94×	2.61
Q1 over 61.5	34.7%	32.4%	31.5%	1.03×	3.08
Q1 under 53.5	29.1%	27.3%	31.8%	0.86×	3.66
Q1 over 63.5	26.5%	27.3%	23.2%	1.17×	3.66
Q1 under 50.5	18.3%	17.2%	20.6%	0.84×	5.83
Q1 over 66.5	16.3%	17.2%	13.9%	1.23×	5.83

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Antonio Spurs to win Q2	71.8%	75.2%	49.3%	1.52×	1.33
Sacramento Kings to win Q2	24.3%	20.1%	46.2%	0.43×	4.97
Q2 tied	3.9%	4.4%	4.5%	0.98×	22.91

Q2 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 over 49.5	83.0%	83.1%	81.8%	1.02×	1.20
Q2 under 65.5	81.8%	83.1%	83.6%	0.99×	1.20
Q2 under 66.5	84.4%	83.0%	86.5%	0.96×	1.21
Q2 over 50.5	80.6%	83.0%	78.1%	1.06×	1.21
Q2 over 52.5	72.7%	73.0%	70.3%	1.04×	1.37
Q2 under 62.5	71.2%	73.0%	74.4%	0.98×	1.37
Q2 under 63.5	74.5%	72.0%	77.5%	0.93×	1.39
Q2 over 53.5	69.5%	67.4%	65.8%	1.02×	1.48
Q2 under 61.5	66.5%	67.4%	70.4%	0.96×	1.49
Q2 over 54.5	64.5%	62.0%	61.1%	1.02×	1.61
Q2 under 60.5	62.8%	62.0%	65.7%	0.94×	1.61
Q2 over 55.5	60.9%	60.7%	56.3%	1.08×	1.65
Q2 under 59.5	57.6%	58.2%	61.9%	0.94×	1.72
Q2 over 56.5	55.5%	57.8%	51.7%	1.12×	1.73
Q2 under 58.5	52.9%	52.7%	57.3%	0.92×	1.90
Q2 over 57.5	51.7%	52.7%	47.3%	1.11×	1.90
Q2 under 57.5	48.3%	47.3%	52.7%	0.90×	2.11
Q2 over 58.5	47.1%	47.3%	42.7%	1.11×	2.11
Q2 under 56.5	44.5%	42.2%	48.3%	0.88×	2.37
Q2 over 59.5	42.4%	41.8%	38.1%	1.10×	2.39
Q2 under 55.5	39.1%	39.3%	43.7%	0.90×	2.55
Q2 over 60.5	37.2%	38.0%	34.3%	1.11×	2.63
Q2 under 54.5	35.5%	38.0%	38.9%	0.98×	2.63
Q2 over 61.5	33.5%	32.6%	29.6%	1.10×	3.06
Q2 under 53.5	30.5%	32.6%	34.2%	0.96×	3.06
Q2 over 63.5	25.5%	28.0%	22.5%	1.25×	3.57
Q2 over 62.5	28.8%	27.0%	25.6%	1.05×	3.71
Q2 under 52.5	27.3%	27.0%	29.7%	0.91×	3.71
Q2 under 50.5	19.4%	17.0%	21.9%	0.78×	5.88
Q2 over 66.5	15.6%	17.0%	13.5%	1.26×	5.89
Q2 over 65.5	18.2%	16.9%	16.4%	1.03×	5.93
Q2 under 49.5	17.0%	16.9%	18.2%	0.92×	5.93

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Antonio Spurs to win Q3	71.9%	73.1%	50.9%	1.44×	1.37
Sacramento Kings to win Q3	24.3%	22.5%	44.3%	0.51×	4.44
Q3 tied	3.9%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.46

Q3 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 under 66.5	83.4%	82.3%	84.7%	0.97×	1.22
Q3 over 50.5	82.4%	82.3%	79.7%	1.03×	1.22
Q3 under 63.5	73.1%	71.8%	75.9%	0.95×	1.39
Q3 over 53.5	71.7%	71.8%	68.3%	1.05×	1.39
Q3 under 61.5	64.7%	62.0%	67.7%	0.92×	1.61
Q3 over 55.5	63.2%	62.0%	59.9%	1.03×	1.61
Q3 under 59.5	55.5%	58.4%	59.0%	0.99×	1.71
Q3 over 57.5	53.9%	52.3%	50.2%	1.04×	1.91
Q3 under 58.5	50.8%	52.3%	54.8%	0.95×	1.91
Q3 over 58.5	49.2%	47.7%	45.2%	1.06×	2.10
Q3 under 57.5	46.1%	47.7%	49.8%	0.96×	2.10
Q3 over 59.5	44.5%	41.6%	41.0%	1.02×	2.40
Q3 under 55.5	36.8%	38.1%	40.1%	0.95×	2.63
Q3 over 61.5	35.3%	38.0%	32.3%	1.18×	2.63
Q3 under 53.5	28.3%	28.2%	31.7%	0.89×	3.55
Q3 over 63.5	26.9%	28.2%	24.1%	1.17×	3.55
Q3 under 50.5	17.6%	17.7%	20.3%	0.87×	5.66
Q3 over 66.5	16.6%	17.7%	15.3%	1.16×	5.66

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Antonio Spurs to win Q4	71.5%	66.2%	48.3%	1.37×	1.51
Sacramento Kings to win Q4	24.5%	29.1%	46.4%	0.63×	3.44
Q4 tied	4.0%	5.2%	5.3%	0.97×	19.30

Q4 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 over 47.5	82.3%	82.0%	79.0%	1.04×	1.22
Q4 under 63.5	82.0%	82.0%	83.7%	0.98×	1.22
Q4 over 50.5	72.0%	71.5%	68.5%	1.04×	1.40
Q4 under 60.5	71.6%	71.5%	74.2%	0.96×	1.40
Q4 over 52.5	63.7%	61.4%	60.4%	1.02×	1.63
Q4 under 58.5	63.3%	61.4%	66.2%	0.93×	1.63
Q4 over 54.5	54.8%	52.5%	51.4%	1.02×	1.91
Q4 under 56.5	54.4%	52.5%	57.2%	0.92×	1.91
Q4 over 55.5	50.2%	52.5%	47.1%	1.11×	1.91
Q4 under 55.5	49.8%	47.5%	52.9%	0.90×	2.11
Q4 over 56.5	45.6%	47.5%	42.8%	1.11×	2.11
Q4 under 54.5	45.2%	47.5%	48.6%	0.98×	2.11
Q4 over 58.5	36.7%	38.6%	33.8%	1.14×	2.59
Q4 under 52.5	36.3%	38.6%	39.6%	0.97×	2.59
Q4 over 60.5	28.4%	28.5%	25.8%	1.11×	3.51
Q4 under 50.5	28.0%	28.5%	31.5%	0.91×	3.51
Q4 over 63.5	18.0%	18.0%	16.3%	1.11×	5.56
Q4 under 47.5	17.7%	18.0%	21.0%	0.85×	5.56

Team total 64

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Antonio Spurs over 115.5	80.4%	80.7%	48.4%	1.67×	1.24
Sacramento Kings under 114.5	80.8%	80.7%	55.5%	1.45×	1.24
San Antonio Spurs under 135.5	80.2%	80.7%	94.4%	0.85×	1.24
Sacramento Kings over 94.5	80.2%	80.7%	92.9%	0.87×	1.24
Sacramento Kings under 118.5	80.9%	80.3%	67.4%	1.19×	1.25
San Antonio Spurs under 131.5	80.4%	80.3%	89.8%	0.89×	1.25
San Antonio Spurs over 111.5	79.0%	78.3%	61.1%	1.28×	1.28
Sacramento Kings over 98.5	78.6%	78.3%	87.6%	0.89×	1.28
Sacramento Kings under 115.5	73.4%	71.9%	58.6%	1.23×	1.39
San Antonio Spurs over 114.5	71.1%	71.8%	51.4%	1.40×	1.39
Sacramento Kings under 111.5	73.0%	70.7%	45.4%	1.56×	1.41
San Antonio Spurs under 132.5	72.4%	70.7%	91.2%	0.78×	1.41
Sacramento Kings over 97.5	72.3%	70.7%	89.3%	0.79×	1.41
San Antonio Spurs over 118.5	72.6%	70.7%	39.7%	1.78×	1.41
Sacramento Kings under 113.5	67.7%	66.6%	52.0%	1.28×	1.50
San Antonio Spurs over 116.5	65.2%	66.6%	45.3%	1.47×	1.50
Sacramento Kings under 109.5	67.0%	66.4%	39.1%	1.70×	1.51
San Antonio Spurs under 130.5	66.4%	66.4%	88.6%	0.75×	1.51
Sacramento Kings over 99.5	66.3%	66.4%	85.9%	0.77×	1.51
San Antonio Spurs over 120.5	66.6%	66.4%	33.7%	1.97×	1.51
Sacramento Kings under 107.5	60.6%	61.2%	33.4%	1.83×	1.63
San Antonio Spurs over 122.5	60.2%	61.2%	28.2%	2.17×	1.63
San Antonio Spurs under 128.5	60.0%	57.1%	85.5%	0.67×	1.75
Sacramento Kings over 101.5	59.8%	57.1%	82.0%	0.70×	1.75
Sacramento Kings under 105.5	53.9%	52.3%	28.1%	1.86×	1.91
San Antonio Spurs over 124.5	53.5%	52.3%	23.2%	2.25×	1.91
San Antonio Spurs under 126.5	53.3%	52.3%	81.5%	0.64×	1.91
Sacramento Kings over 103.5	53.0%	52.3%	77.5%	0.67×	1.91
San Antonio Spurs over 125.5	50.1%	52.3%	20.9%	2.50×	1.91
Sacramento Kings under 104.5	50.4%	52.3%	25.0%	2.09×	1.91
Sacramento Kings under 108.5	51.7%	52.2%	36.0%	1.45×	1.91
San Antonio Spurs under 121.5	50.9%	52.2%	69.6%	0.75×	1.91
San Antonio Spurs over 121.5	49.1%	47.8%	30.4%	1.57×	2.09
Sacramento Kings over 108.5	48.3%	47.8%	64.0%	0.75×	2.09
San Antonio Spurs under 125.5	49.9%	47.7%	79.1%	0.60×	2.09
Sacramento Kings over 104.5	49.6%	47.7%	75.0%	0.64×	2.09
San Antonio Spurs under 124.5	46.5%	47.7%	76.8%	0.62×	2.09
San Antonio Spurs over 126.5	46.7%	47.7%	18.5%	2.59×	2.09
Sacramento Kings under 103.5	47.0%	47.7%	22.5%	2.12×	2.09
Sacramento Kings over 105.5	46.1%	47.7%	71.9%	0.66×	2.09
San Antonio Spurs over 128.5	40.0%	42.9%	14.5%	2.96×	2.33
Sacramento Kings under 101.5	40.2%	42.9%	18.0%	2.38×	2.33
San Antonio Spurs under 122.5	39.8%	38.8%	71.8%	0.54×	2.58
Sacramento Kings over 107.5	39.4%	38.8%	66.6%	0.58×	2.58
Sacramento Kings over 109.5	33.0%	33.6%	60.9%	0.55×	2.98
San Antonio Spurs over 130.5	33.6%	33.6%	11.4%	2.95×	2.98
Sacramento Kings under 99.5	33.7%	33.6%	14.1%	2.38×	2.98
San Antonio Spurs under 120.5	33.4%	33.6%	66.3%	0.51×	2.98
San Antonio Spurs under 116.5	34.8%	33.4%	54.7%	0.61×	2.99
Sacramento Kings over 113.5	32.3%	33.4%	48.0%	0.70×	3.00
Sacramento Kings over 111.5	27.0%	29.3%	54.6%	0.54×	3.42
San Antonio Spurs over 132.5	27.6%	29.3%	8.8%	3.32×	3.42
Sacramento Kings under 97.5	27.7%	29.3%	10.7%	2.72×	3.42
San Antonio Spurs under 118.5	27.4%	29.3%	60.3%	0.49×	3.42
San Antonio Spurs under 114.5	28.9%	28.2%	48.6%	0.58×	3.55
Sacramento Kings over 115.5	26.6%	28.1%	41.4%	0.68×	3.55
Sacramento Kings under 98.5	21.4%	21.7%	12.4%	1.76×	4.60
San Antonio Spurs under 111.5	21.0%	21.7%	38.9%	0.56×	4.60
San Antonio Spurs over 131.5	19.6%	19.7%	10.2%	1.93×	5.07
Sacramento Kings over 118.5	19.1%	19.7%	32.6%	0.60×	5.07
San Antonio Spurs over 135.5	19.8%	19.3%	5.6%	3.47×	5.18
Sacramento Kings under 94.5	19.8%	19.3%	7.1%	2.71×	5.18
San Antonio Spurs under 115.5	19.6%	19.3%	51.6%	0.37×	5.18
Sacramento Kings over 114.5	19.2%	19.3%	44.5%	0.43×	5.18

Total points 56

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 249.5 points	86.0%	85.5%	85.3%	1.00×	1.17
Over 209.5 points	85.3%	85.5%	82.9%	1.03×	1.17
Under 250.5 points	86.8%	85.0%	86.1%	0.99×	1.18
Over 210.5 points	85.4%	85.0%	81.4%	1.05×	1.18
Under 245.5 points	80.2%	80.6%	80.9%	1.00×	1.24
Under 244.5 points	79.2%	78.1%	79.5%	0.98×	1.28
Over 214.5 points	78.3%	78.1%	75.1%	1.04×	1.28
Over 215.5 points	78.3%	75.6%	73.4%	1.03×	1.32
Under 239.5 points	70.8%	71.0%	72.5%	0.98×	1.41
Under 240.5 points	71.8%	70.8%	74.0%	0.96×	1.41
Over 219.5 points	69.7%	66.6%	66.1%	1.01×	1.50
Under 236.5 points	65.1%	66.6%	67.3%	0.99×	1.50
Over 220.5 points	69.6%	65.9%	64.2%	1.03×	1.52
Under 237.5 points	66.0%	65.9%	69.3%	0.95×	1.52
Over 222.5 points	64.0%	61.8%	60.4%	1.02×	1.62
Under 234.5 points	61.1%	61.7%	63.3%	0.97×	1.62
Over 223.5 points	63.6%	61.5%	58.3%	1.06×	1.63
Under 235.5 points	62.0%	61.5%	65.3%	0.94×	1.63
Over 225.5 points	59.5%	56.5%	54.7%	1.03×	1.77
Under 233.5 points	57.8%	56.5%	61.4%	0.92×	1.77
Over 227.5 points	55.2%	56.5%	50.6%	1.12×	1.77
Over 224.5 points	59.9%	56.0%	56.5%	0.99×	1.79
Under 232.5 points	57.0%	56.0%	59.4%	0.94×	1.79
Over 226.5 points	55.7%	56.0%	52.7%	1.06×	1.79
Under 231.5 points	53.5%	52.3%	57.4%	0.91×	1.91
Over 229.5 points	50.9%	52.3%	46.7%	1.12×	1.91
Under 230.5 points	51.3%	52.3%	55.4%	0.94×	1.91
Over 228.5 points	51.5%	52.2%	48.7%	1.07×	1.92
Under 228.5 points	48.5%	47.8%	51.3%	0.93×	2.09
Under 229.5 points	49.1%	47.7%	53.3%	0.89×	2.10
Over 230.5 points	48.7%	47.7%	44.6%	1.07×	2.10
Over 231.5 points	46.5%	47.7%	42.6%	1.12×	2.10
Under 226.5 points	44.3%	44.0%	47.3%	0.93×	2.27
Over 232.5 points	43.0%	44.0%	40.6%	1.08×	2.27
Under 224.5 points	40.1%	44.0%	43.5%	1.01×	2.27
Under 227.5 points	44.8%	43.5%	49.4%	0.88×	2.30
Over 233.5 points	42.2%	43.5%	38.6%	1.13×	2.30
Under 225.5 points	40.5%	43.5%	45.3%	0.96×	2.30
Over 235.5 points	38.0%	38.5%	34.7%	1.11×	2.60
Under 223.5 points	36.4%	38.5%	41.7%	0.92×	2.60
Over 234.5 points	38.9%	38.3%	36.7%	1.04×	2.61
Under 222.5 points	36.0%	38.2%	39.6%	0.97×	2.61
Over 237.5 points	34.0%	34.1%	30.7%	1.11×	2.93
Under 220.5 points	30.4%	34.1%	35.8%	0.95×	2.93
Over 236.5 points	34.9%	33.4%	32.7%	1.02×	2.99
Under 219.5 points	30.3%	33.4%	33.9%	0.99×	3.00
Over 240.5 points	28.2%	29.2%	26.0%	1.12×	3.43
Over 239.5 points	29.2%	29.0%	27.5%	1.05×	3.45
Under 215.5 points	21.7%	24.4%	26.6%	0.92×	4.10
Under 214.5 points	21.7%	21.9%	24.9%	0.88×	4.57
Over 244.5 points	20.8%	21.9%	20.5%	1.07×	4.57
Over 245.5 points	19.8%	19.4%	19.1%	1.02×	5.15
Under 210.5 points	14.6%	15.0%	18.6%	0.80×	6.68
Over 250.5 points	13.2%	15.0%	13.9%	1.08×	6.69
Under 209.5 points	14.7%	14.5%	17.1%	0.85×	6.88
Over 249.5 points	14.0%	14.5%	14.7%	0.99×	6.88

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Antonio Spurs to win both halves	65.4%	66.7%	25.2%	2.65×	1.50
Sacramento Kings to win both halves	1.8%	3.0%	17.8%	0.17×	33.74

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Antonio Spurs by 26+	38.0%	39.9%	6.2%	6.45×	2.50
San Antonio Spurs by 16-20	13.5%	12.3%	7.3%	1.68×	8.11
San Antonio Spurs by 21-25	13.7%	12.3%	4.7%	2.62×	8.11
San Antonio Spurs by 11-15	11.9%	12.3%	10.8%	1.14×	8.11
San Antonio Spurs by 6-10	9.3%	7.5%	13.9%	0.54×	13.40
San Antonio Spurs by 1-5	6.5%	7.5%	12.8%	0.58×	13.40
Sacramento Kings by 1-5	3.6%	2.0%	12.3%	0.17×	49.30
Sacramento Kings by 6-10	1.9%	2.0%	12.3%	0.16×	49.31
Sacramento Kings by 11-15	0.9%	2.0%	8.0%	0.25×	49.32
Sacramento Kings by 16-20	0.4%	2.0%	4.9%	0.42×	49.32
Sacramento Kings by 21-25	0.1%	2.0%	3.0%	0.67×	49.33
Sacramento Kings by 26+	0.1%	2.0%	3.9%	0.53×	49.33

San Antonio Spurs v Sacramento Kings — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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