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Seattle Storm v Dallas Wings — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 24 September 2026 · WNBA · 2026

WNBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Seattle Storm win
30.9%
Draw
0.0%
Dallas Wings win
69.1%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 82.59–88.37 82-88 0% 49% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dallas Wings to score 100+ 15.7% 17.5% 9.8% 1.79× 5.71
Seattle Storm to score 100+ 5.4% 8.8% 12.5% 0.70× 11.40
Dallas Wings to score 110+ 2.7% 0.4% 2.1% 0.17× 282.83
Dallas Wings to score 120+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.72× 283.31
Dallas Wings to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 2.17× 283.35
Both sides to score 100+ 2.0% 0.4% 3.7% 0.09× 282.96
Seattle Storm to score 110+ 0.5% 0.4% 2.1% 0.17× 283.25
Seattle Storm to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.43× 283.35
Seattle Storm to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 2.17× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dallas Wings to win H1 60.3% 62.2% 42.2% 1.48× 1.61
Seattle Storm to win H1 35.7% 37.8% 54.2% 0.70× 2.64
H1 tied 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 1.03× 25.86
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 73.5 84.2% 82.5% 80.3% 1.03× 1.21
H1 under 97.5 84.0% 82.5% 85.7% 0.96× 1.21
H1 over 77.5 74.8% 73.5% 69.5% 1.06× 1.36
H1 under 93.5 74.6% 73.5% 80.1% 0.92× 1.36
H1 over 80.5 66.3% 67.4% 61.1% 1.10× 1.48
H1 under 90.5 66.0% 67.4% 73.0% 0.92× 1.48
H1 over 82.5 60.0% 62.7% 54.2% 1.16× 1.59
H1 under 88.5 59.7% 58.2% 66.5% 0.88× 1.72
H1 over 84.5 53.5% 52.6% 47.9% 1.10× 1.90
H1 under 86.5 53.1% 52.6% 60.1% 0.88× 1.90
H1 over 85.5 50.2% 52.6% 43.6% 1.21× 1.90
H1 under 85.5 49.8% 47.4% 56.4% 0.84× 2.11
H1 under 84.5 46.5% 47.4% 52.1% 0.91× 2.11
H1 over 86.5 46.9% 47.4% 39.9% 1.19× 2.11
H1 over 88.5 40.3% 41.8% 33.6% 1.25× 2.39
H1 under 82.5 40.0% 37.3% 45.8% 0.81× 2.68
H1 under 80.5 33.7% 32.6% 38.9% 0.84× 3.07
H1 over 90.5 34.0% 32.6% 27.0% 1.21× 3.07
H1 over 93.5 25.4% 26.5% 19.9% 1.33× 3.77
H1 under 77.5 25.2% 26.5% 30.5% 0.87× 3.77
H1 under 73.5 15.8% 17.5% 19.7% 0.89× 5.73
H1 over 97.5 16.0% 17.5% 14.3% 1.22× 5.73
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dallas Wings to win H2 60.3% 58.8% 45.3% 1.30× 1.70
Seattle Storm to win H2 35.7% 41.2% 51.1% 0.81× 2.43
H2 tied 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.36
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 97.5 84.3% 81.8% 84.4% 0.97× 1.22
H2 over 73.5 83.9% 81.8% 80.5% 1.02× 1.22
H2 under 93.5 75.0% 72.2% 76.5% 0.94× 1.39
H2 over 77.5 74.5% 72.2% 69.4% 1.04× 1.39
H2 over 80.5 65.9% 66.4% 62.4% 1.06× 1.51
H2 under 90.5 66.4% 66.4% 69.5% 0.95× 1.51
H2 under 88.5 60.1% 61.6% 64.0% 0.96× 1.62
H2 over 82.5 59.6% 57.3% 56.5% 1.01× 1.74
H2 under 86.5 53.6% 52.4% 55.7% 0.94× 1.91
H2 over 84.5 53.0% 52.4% 50.3% 1.04× 1.91
H2 under 85.5 50.3% 52.4% 52.3% 1.00× 1.91
H2 over 85.5 49.7% 47.6% 47.7% 1.00× 2.10
H2 under 84.5 47.0% 47.6% 49.7% 0.96× 2.10
H2 over 86.5 46.4% 47.6% 44.3% 1.08× 2.10
H2 under 82.5 40.4% 42.7% 43.5% 0.98× 2.35
H2 over 88.5 39.9% 38.4% 36.0% 1.07× 2.61
H2 under 80.5 34.1% 33.6% 37.6% 0.89× 2.97
H2 over 90.5 33.6% 33.6% 30.5% 1.10× 2.97
H2 under 77.5 25.5% 27.8% 30.6% 0.91× 3.59
H2 over 93.5 25.0% 27.8% 23.5% 1.19× 3.59
H2 under 73.5 16.1% 18.2% 19.5% 0.93× 5.50
H2 over 97.5 15.7% 18.2% 15.6% 1.16× 5.50
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dallas Wings leading at half time 60.3% 62.5% 42.2% 1.48× 1.60
Seattle Storm leading at half time 35.7% 37.8% 54.2% 0.70× 2.64
Level at half time 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 1.01× 26.40
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dallas Wings +16.5 96.8% 97.4% 83.7% 1.16× 1.03
Dallas Wings +18.5 97.8% 97.4% 86.6% 1.12× 1.03
Dallas Wings +20.5 98.6% 97.4% 90.1% 1.08× 1.03
Dallas Wings +14.5 95.4% 97.4% 80.6% 1.21× 1.03
Dallas Wings +12.5 93.5% 91.1% 76.4% 1.19× 1.10
Dallas Wings +10.5 91.1% 91.1% 72.2% 1.26× 1.10
Dallas Wings +9.5 89.6% 85.9% 69.7% 1.23× 1.16
Seattle Storm +20.5 88.7% 85.9% 94.3% 0.91× 1.16
Dallas Wings +8.5 88.0% 85.9% 66.0% 1.30× 1.16
Dallas Wings +7.5 86.2% 85.9% 62.4% 1.38× 1.16
Seattle Storm +18.5 85.2% 85.9% 93.3% 0.92× 1.16
Dallas Wings +6.5 84.3% 81.1% 60.4% 1.34× 1.23
Dallas Wings +5.5 82.2% 81.1% 57.3% 1.41× 1.23
Seattle Storm +16.5 80.9% 81.1% 91.7% 0.88× 1.23
Dallas Wings +4.5 79.9% 76.5% 54.2% 1.41× 1.31
Dallas Wings +3.5 77.4% 76.5% 52.0% 1.47× 1.31
Seattle Storm +14.5 76.0% 76.5% 88.4% 0.86× 1.31
Dallas Wings +2.5 74.8% 71.6% 49.2% 1.46× 1.40
Dallas Wings +1.5 72.0% 71.6% 47.1% 1.52× 1.40
Seattle Storm +12.5 70.4% 71.6% 86.2% 0.83× 1.40
Dallas Wings −1.5 65.9% 66.7% 42.7% 1.56× 1.50
Seattle Storm +10.5 64.3% 61.9% 83.6% 0.74× 1.62
Dallas Wings −2.5 62.7% 61.9% 39.4% 1.57× 1.62
Seattle Storm +9.5 61.1% 61.9% 80.5% 0.77× 1.62
Dallas Wings −3.5 59.3% 57.1% 37.1% 1.54× 1.75
Seattle Storm +8.5 57.8% 57.1% 78.8% 0.72× 1.75
Dallas Wings −4.5 55.9% 57.1% 34.4% 1.66× 1.75
Seattle Storm +7.5 54.4% 52.4% 75.6% 0.69× 1.91
Dallas Wings −5.5 52.5% 52.4% 30.9% 1.69× 1.91
Seattle Storm +6.5 51.0% 52.4% 72.2% 0.73× 1.91
Dallas Wings −6.5 49.0% 47.6% 27.9% 1.71× 2.10
Seattle Storm +5.5 47.5% 47.6% 69.1% 0.69× 2.10
Dallas Wings −7.5 45.6% 47.6% 24.4% 1.95× 2.10
Seattle Storm +4.5 44.1% 42.9% 65.6% 0.65× 2.33
Dallas Wings −8.5 42.3% 42.9% 21.2% 2.03× 2.33
Seattle Storm +3.5 40.7% 42.9% 62.9% 0.68× 2.33
Dallas Wings −9.5 38.9% 38.1% 19.5% 1.95× 2.63
Seattle Storm +2.5 37.4% 38.1% 60.6% 0.63× 2.63
Dallas Wings −10.5 35.7% 38.1% 16.5% 2.32× 2.63
Seattle Storm +1.5 34.1% 33.3% 57.3% 0.58× 3.01
Dallas Wings −12.5 29.6% 28.4% 13.8% 2.05× 3.53
Seattle Storm −1.5 28.0% 28.4% 52.9% 0.54× 3.53
Seattle Storm −2.5 25.2% 28.4% 50.8% 0.56× 3.53
Dallas Wings −14.5 24.0% 23.5% 11.6% 2.03× 4.25
Seattle Storm −3.5 22.6% 23.5% 48.0% 0.49× 4.25
Seattle Storm −4.5 20.1% 23.5% 45.8% 0.51× 4.25
Dallas Wings −16.5 19.1% 18.9% 8.3% 2.27× 5.29
Seattle Storm −5.5 17.8% 18.9% 42.7% 0.44× 5.29
Seattle Storm −6.5 15.7% 18.9% 39.6% 0.48× 5.30
Seattle Storm −7.5 13.8% 14.1% 37.6% 0.38× 7.09
Dallas Wings −18.5 14.8% 14.1% 6.7% 2.11× 7.09
Seattle Storm −8.5 12.0% 14.1% 34.0% 0.41× 7.09
Seattle Storm −9.5 10.4% 14.1% 30.3% 0.47× 7.09
Dallas Wings −20.5 11.3% 14.1% 5.7% 2.48× 7.09
Seattle Storm −10.5 8.9% 8.9% 27.9% 0.32× 11.25
Seattle Storm −12.5 6.5% 8.9% 23.6% 0.38× 11.25
Seattle Storm −14.5 4.6% 2.6% 19.4% 0.13× 38.72
Seattle Storm −16.5 3.2% 2.6% 16.3% 0.16× 38.73
Seattle Storm −18.5 2.2% 2.6% 13.4% 0.19× 38.73
Seattle Storm −20.5 1.4% 2.6% 9.9% 0.26× 38.73
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.5% 52.4% 50.7% 1.03× 1.91
1st half highest scoring 50.5% 47.6% 49.3% 0.96× 2.10
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.2% 27.4% 27.5% 0.99× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 27.6% 27.4% 27.0% 1.01× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 22.4% 22.4% 23.8% 0.94× 4.46
Q2 highest scoring 21.8% 22.4% 22.0% 1.02× 4.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dallas Wings at HT / Dallas Wings at FT 51.4% 51.1% 30.9% 1.65× 1.96
Seattle Storm at HT / Seattle Storm at FT 20.7% 24.4% 41.9% 0.58× 4.10
Seattle Storm at HT / Dallas Wings at FT 15.1% 15.4% 12.5% 1.23× 6.47
Dallas Wings at HT / Seattle Storm at FT 8.9% 8.3% 11.4% 0.73× 12.08
Level at HT / Dallas Wings at FT 2.6% 2.1% 1.8% 1.17× 47.75
Level at HT / Seattle Storm at FT 1.4% 2.1% 2.1% 0.99× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dallas Wings to win 69.1% 64.5% 45.0% 1.44× 1.55
Seattle Storm to win 30.9% 35.5% 55.0% 0.64× 2.82
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.5% 50.5% 52.0% 0.97× 1.98
Seattle Storm even 50.0% 50.5% 50.5% 1.00× 1.98
Dallas Wings even 50.0% 50.5% 51.1% 0.99× 1.98
Seattle Storm odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.5% 1.00× 2.02
Dallas Wings odd 50.0% 49.5% 48.9% 1.01× 2.02
Total points even 48.5% 49.5% 48.0% 1.03× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 96.0% 97.0% 96.7% 1.00× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 4.0% 3.0% 3.3% 0.92× 33.38
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dallas Wings to win Q1 55.6% 57.3% 43.0% 1.33× 1.75
Seattle Storm to win Q1 39.0% 38.3% 52.4% 0.73× 2.61
Q1 tied 5.4% 5.5% 4.7% 1.16× 18.33
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 51.5 85.1% 87.4% 86.6% 1.01× 1.14
Q1 over 35.5 84.0% 82.8% 80.6% 1.03× 1.21
Q1 under 48.5 74.5% 72.7% 77.9% 0.93× 1.38
Q1 over 38.5 73.0% 72.7% 68.4% 1.06× 1.38
Q1 under 46.5 65.7% 67.6% 69.7% 0.97× 1.48
Q1 over 40.5 64.0% 61.7% 59.1% 1.04× 1.62
Q1 under 44.5 55.9% 58.6% 61.1% 0.96× 1.71
Q1 over 42.5 54.2% 52.7% 49.2% 1.07× 1.90
Q1 under 43.5 50.9% 52.7% 53.7% 0.98× 1.90
Q1 over 43.5 49.1% 47.3% 46.3% 1.02× 2.11
Q1 under 42.5 45.8% 47.3% 50.8% 0.93× 2.11
Q1 over 44.5 44.1% 41.4% 38.9% 1.06× 2.42
Q1 under 40.5 36.0% 38.3% 40.9% 0.94× 2.61
Q1 over 46.5 34.3% 32.4% 30.3% 1.07× 3.08
Q1 under 38.5 27.0% 27.3% 31.6% 0.86× 3.66
Q1 over 48.5 25.5% 27.3% 22.2% 1.23× 3.66
Q1 under 35.5 16.0% 17.2% 19.4% 0.89× 5.83
Q1 over 51.5 14.9% 12.6% 13.4% 0.94× 7.94
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dallas Wings to win Q2 55.2% 59.4% 45.0% 1.32× 1.69
Seattle Storm to win Q2 39.5% 35.8% 51.8% 0.69× 2.79
Q2 tied 5.3% 6.1% 3.4% 1.77× 16.50
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 50.5 85.9% 87.3% 87.9% 0.99× 1.15
Q2 over 34.5 84.3% 83.0% 80.9% 1.03× 1.21
Q2 under 47.5 75.3% 76.8% 79.2% 0.97× 1.30
Q2 over 37.5 73.1% 72.0% 70.0% 1.03× 1.39
Q2 under 45.5 66.5% 67.4% 70.8% 0.95× 1.49
Q2 over 39.5 63.9% 60.7% 60.6% 1.00× 1.65
Q2 under 43.5 56.6% 58.2% 60.1% 0.97× 1.72
Q2 over 41.5 53.8% 52.7% 50.2% 1.05× 1.90
Q2 under 42.5 51.4% 52.7% 54.7% 0.96× 1.90
Q2 over 42.5 48.6% 47.3% 45.3% 1.05× 2.11
Q2 under 41.5 46.2% 47.3% 49.8% 0.95× 2.11
Q2 over 43.5 43.4% 41.8% 39.9% 1.05× 2.39
Q2 under 39.5 36.1% 39.3% 39.4% 1.00× 2.55
Q2 over 45.5 33.5% 32.6% 29.2% 1.12× 3.06
Q2 under 37.5 26.9% 28.0% 30.0% 0.93× 3.57
Q2 over 47.5 24.7% 23.2% 20.8% 1.11× 4.31
Q2 under 34.5 15.7% 17.0% 19.1% 0.89× 5.89
Q2 over 50.5 14.1% 12.7% 12.1% 1.05× 7.89
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dallas Wings to win Q3 55.8% 56.8% 46.4% 1.22× 1.76
Seattle Storm to win Q3 38.7% 38.8% 48.2% 0.80× 2.58
Q3 tied 5.6% 5.3% 5.5% 0.95× 18.97
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 51.5 85.1% 87.2% 88.3% 0.99× 1.15
Q3 over 35.5 84.3% 82.3% 82.1% 1.00× 1.22
Q3 under 48.5 74.4% 71.8% 78.0% 0.92× 1.39
Q3 over 38.5 73.4% 71.8% 68.4% 1.05× 1.39
Q3 under 46.5 65.6% 67.8% 69.1% 0.98× 1.48
Q3 over 40.5 64.4% 62.0% 61.2% 1.01× 1.61
Q3 under 44.5 55.7% 58.4% 59.3% 0.98× 1.71
Q3 over 42.5 54.5% 52.3% 50.8% 1.03× 1.91
Q3 under 43.5 50.6% 52.3% 54.2% 0.96× 1.91
Q3 over 43.5 49.4% 47.7% 45.8% 1.04× 2.10
Q3 under 42.5 45.5% 47.7% 49.2% 0.97× 2.10
Q3 over 44.5 44.3% 41.6% 40.7% 1.02× 2.40
Q3 under 40.5 35.6% 38.0% 38.8% 0.98× 2.63
Q3 over 46.5 34.4% 32.2% 30.9% 1.04× 3.10
Q3 under 38.5 26.6% 28.2% 31.6% 0.89× 3.55
Q3 over 48.5 25.6% 28.2% 22.0% 1.28× 3.55
Q3 under 35.5 15.7% 17.7% 17.9% 0.99× 5.66
Q3 over 51.5 14.9% 12.8% 11.7% 1.09× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dallas Wings to win Q4 55.3% 52.0% 42.5% 1.22× 1.92
Seattle Storm to win Q4 39.4% 42.4% 52.6% 0.81× 2.36
Q4 tied 5.3% 5.8% 5.0% 1.15× 17.26
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 50.5 84.8% 82.0% 84.9% 0.97× 1.22
Q4 over 34.5 82.1% 82.0% 76.2% 1.08× 1.22
Q4 under 47.5 74.7% 71.5% 75.7% 0.94× 1.40
Q4 over 37.5 71.0% 71.5% 65.5% 1.09× 1.40
Q4 under 45.5 66.3% 67.4% 67.3% 1.00× 1.48
Q4 over 39.5 62.1% 61.4% 57.3% 1.07× 1.63
Q4 under 43.5 57.1% 58.4% 59.4% 0.98× 1.71
Q4 over 41.5 52.6% 52.5% 47.4% 1.11× 1.91
Q4 under 42.5 52.2% 52.5% 55.2% 0.95× 1.91
Q4 under 41.5 47.4% 47.5% 52.6% 0.90× 2.11
Q4 over 42.5 47.8% 47.5% 44.8% 1.06× 2.11
Q4 over 43.5 42.9% 41.6% 40.6% 1.03× 2.40
Q4 under 39.5 37.9% 38.6% 42.7% 0.90× 2.59
Q4 over 45.5 33.7% 32.6% 32.7% 1.00× 3.07
Q4 under 37.5 29.0% 28.5% 34.5% 0.83× 3.51
Q4 over 47.5 25.3% 28.5% 24.3% 1.17× 3.51
Q4 under 34.5 17.9% 18.0% 23.8% 0.76× 5.56
Q4 over 50.5 15.2% 18.0% 15.1% 1.19× 5.56
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Storm over 72.5 82.8% 80.7% 86.0% 0.94× 1.24
Seattle Storm under 92.5 82.8% 80.7% 71.5% 1.13× 1.24
Dallas Wings over 78.5 81.8% 80.7% 65.0% 1.24× 1.24
Dallas Wings under 98.5 82.0% 80.7% 88.4% 0.91× 1.24
Dallas Wings over 81.5 73.8% 70.7% 55.0% 1.28× 1.41
Dallas Wings under 95.5 74.0% 70.7% 85.2% 0.83× 1.41
Seattle Storm over 75.5 74.6% 70.7% 79.6% 0.89× 1.41
Seattle Storm under 89.5 74.6% 70.7% 63.2% 1.12× 1.41
Dallas Wings over 83.5 67.5% 66.4% 49.8% 1.33× 1.51
Dallas Wings under 93.5 67.7% 66.4% 81.6% 0.81× 1.51
Seattle Storm over 77.5 68.2% 66.4% 74.8% 0.89× 1.51
Seattle Storm under 87.5 68.2% 66.4% 58.3% 1.14× 1.51
Dallas Wings over 85.5 60.7% 61.2% 44.0% 1.39× 1.63
Dallas Wings under 91.5 60.9% 61.2% 78.3% 0.78× 1.63
Seattle Storm over 79.5 61.1% 61.2% 69.1% 0.89× 1.63
Seattle Storm under 85.5 61.2% 61.2% 51.5% 1.19× 1.63
Dallas Wings under 89.5 53.7% 52.3% 71.3% 0.73× 1.91
Seattle Storm over 81.5 53.7% 52.3% 63.2% 0.83× 1.91
Seattle Storm under 83.5 53.8% 52.3% 45.0% 1.16× 1.91
Dallas Wings over 87.5 53.6% 52.3% 36.6% 1.43× 1.91
Dallas Wings under 88.5 50.1% 52.3% 68.1% 0.77× 1.91
Seattle Storm under 82.5 50.0% 52.3% 39.9% 1.31× 1.91
Dallas Wings over 88.5 49.9% 47.7% 31.9% 1.50× 2.09
Seattle Storm over 82.5 50.0% 47.7% 60.1% 0.79× 2.09
Dallas Wings under 87.5 46.4% 47.7% 63.4% 0.75× 2.09
Dallas Wings over 89.5 46.3% 47.7% 28.7% 1.67× 2.09
Seattle Storm under 81.5 46.3% 47.7% 36.8% 1.30× 2.09
Seattle Storm over 83.5 46.2% 47.7% 55.0% 0.87× 2.09
Dallas Wings under 85.5 39.3% 38.8% 56.0% 0.69× 2.58
Dallas Wings over 91.5 39.1% 38.8% 21.7% 1.79× 2.58
Seattle Storm under 79.5 38.9% 38.8% 30.9% 1.25× 2.58
Seattle Storm over 85.5 38.8% 38.8% 48.5% 0.80× 2.58
Dallas Wings under 83.5 32.5% 33.6% 50.2% 0.67× 2.98
Dallas Wings over 93.5 32.3% 33.6% 18.4% 1.83× 2.98
Seattle Storm under 77.5 31.8% 33.6% 25.2% 1.33× 2.98
Seattle Storm over 87.5 31.8% 33.6% 41.7% 0.81× 2.98
Dallas Wings under 81.5 26.2% 29.3% 45.0% 0.65× 3.42
Dallas Wings over 95.5 26.0% 29.3% 14.8% 1.98× 3.42
Seattle Storm under 75.5 25.4% 29.3% 20.4% 1.44× 3.42
Seattle Storm over 89.5 25.4% 29.3% 36.8% 0.80× 3.42
Dallas Wings under 78.5 18.2% 19.3% 35.0% 0.55× 5.18
Dallas Wings over 98.5 18.0% 19.3% 11.6% 1.67× 5.18
Seattle Storm under 72.5 17.2% 19.3% 14.0% 1.38× 5.18
Seattle Storm over 92.5 17.2% 19.3% 28.5% 0.68× 5.18
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 191.5 points 87.6% 85.0% 87.1% 0.98× 1.18
Over 151.5 points 86.3% 85.0% 79.6% 1.07× 1.18
Under 186.5 points 80.8% 80.6% 83.4% 0.97× 1.24
Over 156.5 points 79.2% 75.6% 73.0% 1.04× 1.32
Under 181.5 points 72.3% 70.8% 76.2% 0.93× 1.41
Over 161.5 points 70.2% 70.8% 64.3% 1.10× 1.41
Under 178.5 points 66.4% 65.9% 70.5% 0.93× 1.52
Over 164.5 points 64.2% 61.5% 58.3% 1.05× 1.63
Under 176.5 points 62.2% 61.5% 66.6% 0.92× 1.63
Over 166.5 points 59.9% 56.5% 53.1% 1.06× 1.77
Under 174.5 points 57.8% 56.5% 63.2% 0.89× 1.77
Over 168.5 points 55.5% 56.5% 49.2% 1.15× 1.77
Under 172.5 points 53.4% 52.3% 60.3% 0.87× 1.91
Over 170.5 points 51.1% 52.3% 44.6% 1.17× 1.91
Under 171.5 points 51.2% 52.3% 58.0% 0.90× 1.91
Under 170.5 points 48.9% 47.7% 55.4% 0.86× 2.10
Over 171.5 points 48.8% 47.7% 42.0% 1.13× 2.10
Over 172.5 points 46.6% 47.7% 39.7% 1.20× 2.10
Under 168.5 points 44.5% 43.5% 50.8% 0.86× 2.30
Over 174.5 points 42.2% 43.5% 36.8% 1.18× 2.30
Under 166.5 points 40.1% 43.5% 46.9% 0.93× 2.30
Over 176.5 points 37.8% 38.5% 33.4% 1.15× 2.60
Under 164.5 points 35.8% 38.5% 41.7% 0.92× 2.60
Over 178.5 points 33.6% 34.1% 29.5% 1.16× 2.93
Under 161.5 points 29.8% 29.2% 35.7% 0.82× 3.43
Over 181.5 points 27.7% 29.2% 23.8% 1.23× 3.43
Under 156.5 points 20.8% 24.4% 27.0% 0.90× 4.10
Over 186.5 points 19.2% 19.4% 16.6% 1.17× 5.15
Under 151.5 points 13.7% 15.0% 20.4% 0.73× 6.68
Over 191.5 points 12.4% 15.0% 12.9% 1.16× 6.69
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dallas Wings to win both halves 33.8% 31.3% 17.9% 1.74× 3.20
Seattle Storm to win both halves 10.4% 14.0% 25.7% 0.55× 7.13
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dallas Wings by 1-5 16.6% 16.8% 14.2% 1.18× 5.97
Dallas Wings by 6-10 16.8% 16.8% 14.7% 1.14× 5.97
Seattle Storm by 1-5 13.1% 12.3% 12.5% 0.98× 8.11
Dallas Wings by 11-15 14.3% 12.3% 6.5% 1.89× 8.11
Dallas Wings by 16-20 10.2% 12.3% 4.6% 2.70× 8.11
Seattle Storm by 6-10 8.9% 7.5% 15.0% 0.50× 13.40
Dallas Wings by 21-25 6.1% 7.5% 2.3% 3.27× 13.40
Seattle Storm by 11-15 5.1% 7.5% 10.3% 0.73× 13.41
Dallas Wings by 26+ 5.1% 7.5% 3.6% 2.08× 13.41
Seattle Storm by 16-20 2.4% 2.0% 8.0% 0.25× 49.31
Seattle Storm by 21-25 1.0% 2.0% 4.9% 0.42× 49.32
Seattle Storm by 26+ 0.5% 2.0% 5.2% 0.39× 49.32
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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