Utah Jazz v Denver Nuggets — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 7 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated 3 Sep 2026, 23:45

Utah Jazz

21:00

Denver Nuggets

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Utah Jazz win

21.9%

Draw

0.0%

Denver Nuggets win

78.1%

22078

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	22078	119.32–130.31	119-130 0%	50%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Denver Nuggets to score 100+	99.6%	94.9%	85.9%	1.11×	1.05
Denver Nuggets to score 110+	96.3%	94.9%	60.9%	1.56×	1.05
Utah Jazz to score 100+	95.3%	94.8%	89.3%	1.06×	1.05
Both sides to score 100+	95.0%	90.3%	77.5%	1.17×	1.11
Denver Nuggets to score 120+	82.5%	79.3%	29.7%	2.67×	1.26
Utah Jazz to score 110+	79.5%	77.0%	67.0%	1.15×	1.30
Denver Nuggets to score 130+	53.2%	52.4%	10.0%	5.25×	1.91
Utah Jazz to score 120+	48.9%	47.0%	36.5%	1.29×	2.13
Utah Jazz to score 130+	19.1%	17.6%	12.8%	1.37×	5.69

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Denver Nuggets to win H1	67.6%	68.3%	44.1%	1.55×	1.47
Utah Jazz to win H1	29.3%	26.6%	52.8%	0.50×	3.77
H1 tied	3.1%	3.9%	3.1%	1.25×	25.87

H1 total 36

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 over 109.5	82.2%	83.2%	65.0%	1.28×	1.20
H1 under 133.5	81.7%	83.2%	93.1%	0.89×	1.20
H1 under 138.5	83.2%	82.5%	96.9%	0.85×	1.21
H1 over 114.5	81.1%	82.5%	49.6%	1.66×	1.21
H1 over 113.5	73.2%	74.0%	52.4%	1.41×	1.35
H1 under 134.5	74.4%	73.5%	94.0%	0.78×	1.36
H1 over 118.5	71.8%	73.5%	37.1%	1.98×	1.36
H1 over 116.5	65.2%	68.0%	43.4%	1.57×	1.47
H1 under 131.5	66.4%	67.4%	91.0%	0.74×	1.48
H1 over 121.5	63.5%	62.7%	28.8%	2.18×	1.59
H1 under 129.5	60.7%	62.7%	88.1%	0.71×	1.59
H1 over 123.5	57.6%	58.2%	24.0%	2.42×	1.72
H1 under 124.5	58.6%	58.2%	78.4%	0.74×	1.72
H1 under 127.5	54.6%	52.6%	84.8%	0.62×	1.90
H1 over 125.5	51.5%	52.6%	19.3%	2.73×	1.90
H1 under 126.5	51.6%	52.6%	82.8%	0.64×	1.90
H1 over 120.5	53.4%	52.5%	31.6%	1.66×	1.90
H1 under 122.5	52.6%	52.5%	74.0%	0.71×	1.90
H1 over 122.5	47.4%	47.5%	26.0%	1.82×	2.11
H1 under 120.5	46.6%	47.5%	68.4%	0.69×	2.11
H1 under 125.5	48.5%	47.4%	80.7%	0.59×	2.11
H1 over 126.5	48.4%	47.4%	17.2%	2.75×	2.11
H1 over 127.5	45.4%	47.4%	15.2%	3.12×	2.11
H1 over 124.5	41.4%	41.8%	21.7%	1.93×	2.39
H1 under 123.5	42.4%	41.8%	76.0%	0.55×	2.39
H1 over 129.5	39.3%	37.3%	11.9%	3.14×	2.68
H1 under 121.5	36.5%	37.3%	71.2%	0.52×	2.68
H1 over 131.5	33.6%	32.6%	9.0%	3.61×	3.07
H1 under 116.5	34.8%	32.0%	56.6%	0.56×	3.13
H1 under 118.5	28.2%	26.5%	62.9%	0.42×	3.77
H1 over 134.5	25.6%	26.5%	6.0%	4.39×	3.77
H1 under 113.5	26.8%	26.0%	47.6%	0.55×	3.84
H1 under 114.5	18.9%	17.5%	50.4%	0.35×	5.72
H1 over 138.5	16.8%	17.5%	3.1%	5.66×	5.73
H1 over 133.5	18.3%	16.8%	6.9%	2.44×	5.96
H1 under 109.5	17.8%	16.8%	35.0%	0.48×	5.96

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Denver Nuggets to win H2	67.4%	62.8%	44.7%	1.40×	1.59
Utah Jazz to win H2	29.4%	31.3%	51.6%	0.61×	3.19
H2 tied	3.1%	3.9%	3.7%	1.06×	25.36

H2 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 over 111.5	82.7%	81.8%	55.3%	1.48×	1.22
H2 under 135.5	82.1%	81.8%	93.5%	0.87×	1.22
H2 over 107.5	81.9%	81.5%	66.2%	1.23×	1.23
H2 under 127.5	73.4%	72.5%	84.9%	0.85×	1.38
H2 over 115.5	73.6%	72.2%	44.6%	1.62×	1.39
H2 under 131.5	72.9%	72.2%	90.1%	0.80×	1.39
H2 over 118.5	65.5%	66.4%	36.4%	1.82×	1.51
H2 over 114.5	64.6%	62.6%	47.5%	1.32×	1.60
H2 under 128.5	64.7%	61.6%	86.3%	0.71×	1.62
H2 over 116.5	58.7%	58.0%	41.9%	1.38×	1.72
H2 over 120.5	59.6%	57.3%	30.7%	1.87×	1.74
H2 under 126.5	58.8%	57.3%	83.2%	0.69×	1.74
H2 over 122.5	53.5%	52.4%	25.6%	2.05×	1.91
H2 under 124.5	52.7%	52.4%	79.1%	0.66×	1.91
H2 over 123.5	50.4%	52.4%	23.1%	2.26×	1.91
H2 under 119.5	50.4%	52.0%	66.4%	0.78×	1.92
H2 over 119.5	49.6%	48.0%	33.6%	1.43×	2.09
H2 under 123.5	49.6%	47.6%	76.9%	0.62×	2.10
H2 over 124.5	47.3%	47.6%	20.9%	2.28×	2.10
H2 under 122.5	46.5%	47.6%	74.4%	0.64×	2.10
H2 over 126.5	41.2%	42.7%	16.8%	2.54×	2.34
H2 under 120.5	40.4%	42.7%	69.3%	0.62×	2.35
H2 under 116.5	41.3%	42.0%	58.1%	0.72×	2.38
H2 over 128.5	35.3%	38.4%	13.7%	2.79×	2.61
H2 under 114.5	35.4%	37.4%	52.5%	0.71×	2.67
H2 under 118.5	34.5%	33.6%	63.6%	0.53×	2.97
H2 over 131.5	27.1%	27.8%	9.9%	2.80×	3.59
H2 under 115.5	26.4%	27.8%	55.4%	0.50×	3.59
H2 over 127.5	26.6%	27.5%	15.1%	1.82×	3.63
H2 under 107.5	18.1%	18.5%	33.8%	0.55×	5.41
H2 over 135.5	17.9%	18.2%	6.5%	2.81×	5.50
H2 under 111.5	17.3%	18.2%	44.7%	0.41×	5.50

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Denver Nuggets leading at half time	67.6%	68.4%	44.1%	1.55×	1.46
Utah Jazz leading at half time	29.3%	26.5%	52.8%	0.50×	3.77
Level at half time	3.1%	3.8%	3.1%	1.22×	26.42

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Denver Nuggets +14.5	96.0%	97.4%	80.1%	1.22×	1.03
Denver Nuggets +16.5	97.0%	97.4%	83.5%	1.17×	1.03
Denver Nuggets +18.5	97.9%	97.4%	86.4%	1.13×	1.03
Denver Nuggets +20.5	98.5%	97.4%	89.1%	1.09×	1.03
Denver Nuggets +12.5	94.6%	91.1%	76.0%	1.20×	1.10
Denver Nuggets +10.5	92.9%	91.1%	71.0%	1.28×	1.10
Denver Nuggets +8.5	90.9%	91.1%	65.9%	1.38×	1.10
Denver Nuggets +9.5	91.9%	91.1%	68.7%	1.33×	1.10
Denver Nuggets +7.5	89.7%	85.9%	63.0%	1.36×	1.16
Denver Nuggets +5.5	87.0%	85.9%	57.1%	1.50×	1.16
Denver Nuggets +6.5	88.4%	85.9%	60.0%	1.43×	1.16
Denver Nuggets +4.5	85.4%	85.9%	54.1%	1.59×	1.16
Denver Nuggets +3.5	83.8%	81.1%	51.6%	1.57×	1.23
Denver Nuggets +2.5	82.0%	81.1%	49.1%	1.65×	1.23
Denver Nuggets +1.5	80.1%	81.1%	46.3%	1.75×	1.23
Denver Nuggets −1.5	75.9%	76.5%	42.1%	1.81×	1.31
Utah Jazz +20.5	73.9%	71.6%	93.1%	0.77×	1.40
Denver Nuggets −2.5	73.6%	71.6%	39.5%	1.81×	1.40
Denver Nuggets −3.5	71.2%	71.6%	36.9%	1.94×	1.40
Denver Nuggets −4.5	68.7%	66.7%	34.3%	1.95×	1.50
Utah Jazz +18.5	69.1%	66.7%	91.5%	0.73×	1.50
Denver Nuggets −5.5	66.1%	66.7%	32.0%	2.08×	1.50
Utah Jazz +16.5	64.1%	61.9%	89.7%	0.69×	1.62
Denver Nuggets −6.5	63.5%	61.9%	29.4%	2.11×	1.62
Denver Nuggets −7.5	60.8%	61.9%	27.0%	2.29×	1.62
Denver Nuggets −8.5	58.0%	57.1%	24.3%	2.35×	1.75
Utah Jazz +14.5	58.7%	57.1%	87.0%	0.66×	1.75
Denver Nuggets −9.5	55.2%	57.1%	21.9%	2.61×	1.75
Utah Jazz +12.5	53.2%	52.4%	83.9%	0.62×	1.91
Denver Nuggets −10.5	52.4%	52.4%	19.7%	2.65×	1.91
Utah Jazz +10.5	47.6%	47.6%	80.3%	0.59×	2.10
Denver Nuggets −12.5	46.8%	47.6%	16.1%	2.95×	2.10
Utah Jazz +9.5	44.8%	42.9%	78.1%	0.55×	2.33
Utah Jazz +8.5	42.0%	42.9%	75.7%	0.57×	2.33
Denver Nuggets −14.5	41.3%	42.9%	13.0%	3.30×	2.33
Utah Jazz +7.5	39.2%	38.1%	73.0%	0.52×	2.63
Utah Jazz +6.5	36.5%	38.1%	70.6%	0.54×	2.63
Denver Nuggets −16.5	35.9%	38.1%	10.3%	3.69×	2.63
Utah Jazz +5.5	33.9%	33.3%	68.0%	0.49×	3.01
Utah Jazz +4.5	31.3%	33.3%	65.7%	0.51×	3.01
Denver Nuggets −18.5	30.9%	33.3%	8.5%	3.91×	3.01
Utah Jazz +3.5	28.8%	28.4%	63.1%	0.45×	3.53
Utah Jazz +2.5	26.4%	28.4%	60.5%	0.47×	3.53
Denver Nuggets −20.5	26.1%	28.4%	6.9%	4.12×	3.53
Utah Jazz +1.5	24.1%	23.5%	57.9%	0.41×	4.25
Utah Jazz −1.5	19.9%	18.9%	53.7%	0.35×	5.29
Utah Jazz −2.5	18.0%	18.9%	50.9%	0.37×	5.29
Utah Jazz −3.5	16.2%	18.9%	48.4%	0.39×	5.30
Utah Jazz −4.5	14.6%	14.1%	46.0%	0.31×	7.09
Utah Jazz −5.5	13.0%	14.1%	42.9%	0.33×	7.09
Utah Jazz −6.5	11.6%	14.1%	40.0%	0.35×	7.09
Utah Jazz −7.5	10.3%	14.1%	37.0%	0.38×	7.09
Utah Jazz −8.5	9.1%	8.9%	34.1%	0.26×	11.25
Utah Jazz −9.5	8.1%	8.9%	31.3%	0.28×	11.25
Utah Jazz −10.5	7.1%	8.9%	29.0%	0.31×	11.25
Utah Jazz −12.5	5.4%	8.9%	24.0%	0.37×	11.25
Utah Jazz −14.5	4.0%	2.6%	19.9%	0.13×	38.72
Utah Jazz −16.5	3.0%	2.6%	16.5%	0.16×	38.73
Utah Jazz −18.5	2.1%	2.6%	13.6%	0.19×	38.73
Utah Jazz −20.5	1.5%	2.6%	10.9%	0.24×	38.73

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	57.2%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
2nd half highest scoring	42.8%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 highest scoring	28.5%	27.4%	29.2%	0.94×	3.65
Q3 highest scoring	28.3%	27.4%	27.5%	1.00×	3.65
Q2 highest scoring	26.6%	27.4%	26.3%	1.04×	3.65
Q4 highest scoring	16.6%	18.3%	17.0%	1.08×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Denver Nuggets at HT / Denver Nuggets at FT	61.1%	62.3%	30.9%	2.02×	1.61
Utah Jazz at HT / Utah Jazz at FT	14.4%	12.2%	40.8%	0.30×	8.17
Utah Jazz at HT / Denver Nuggets at FT	14.8%	12.2%	12.0%	1.02×	8.17
Denver Nuggets at HT / Utah Jazz at FT	6.6%	8.3%	13.3%	0.62×	12.09
Level at HT / Denver Nuggets at FT	2.2%	2.1%	1.4%	1.50×	47.75
Level at HT / Utah Jazz at FT	0.9%	2.1%	1.7%	1.22×	47.78

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Denver Nuggets to win	78.1%	75.1%	44.3%	1.70×	1.33
Utah Jazz to win	21.9%	24.9%	55.7%	0.45×	4.02

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Utah Jazz even	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Denver Nuggets odd	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Total points odd	51.1%	50.5%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Utah Jazz odd	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.98×	2.02
Denver Nuggets even	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.98×	2.02
Total points even	48.9%	49.5%	49.0%	1.01×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	94.8%	94.0%	94.8%	0.99×	1.06
Match to go to overtime	5.2%	6.0%	5.2%	1.16×	16.66

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Denver Nuggets to win Q1	61.1%	64.9%	44.1%	1.47×	1.54
Utah Jazz to win Q1	34.4%	30.4%	51.3%	0.59×	3.29
Q1 tied	4.5%	4.2%	4.6%	0.90×	23.95

Q1 total 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 under 69.5	84.1%	83.2%	92.7%	0.90×	1.20
Q1 over 53.5	80.9%	83.2%	68.2%	1.22×	1.20
Q1 under 71.5	83.7%	82.8%	95.1%	0.87×	1.21
Q1 over 55.5	81.6%	82.8%	59.2%	1.40×	1.21
Q1 under 68.5	73.5%	72.7%	90.7%	0.80×	1.38
Q1 over 58.5	70.8%	72.7%	44.3%	1.64×	1.38
Q1 over 56.5	70.0%	69.3%	54.6%	1.27×	1.44
Q1 under 66.5	65.3%	67.6%	86.1%	0.78×	1.48
Q1 over 60.5	62.3%	61.7%	35.5%	1.74×	1.62
Q1 under 64.5	56.3%	58.6%	80.1%	0.73×	1.71
Q1 under 61.5	52.5%	52.7%	68.5%	0.77×	1.90
Q1 over 62.5	53.1%	52.7%	27.1%	1.94×	1.90
Q1 under 63.5	51.6%	52.7%	76.8%	0.69×	1.90
Q1 over 63.5	48.4%	47.3%	23.2%	2.04×	2.11
Q1 under 62.5	46.9%	47.3%	72.9%	0.65×	2.11
Q1 over 61.5	47.5%	47.3%	31.5%	1.50×	2.11
Q1 over 64.5	43.7%	41.4%	19.9%	2.08×	2.42
Q1 under 60.5	37.7%	38.3%	64.5%	0.59×	2.61
Q1 over 66.5	34.7%	32.4%	13.9%	2.33×	3.08
Q1 under 56.5	30.0%	30.7%	45.4%	0.68×	3.25
Q1 under 58.5	29.2%	27.3%	55.7%	0.49×	3.66
Q1 over 68.5	26.5%	27.3%	9.3%	2.92×	3.66
Q1 under 55.5	18.4%	17.2%	40.8%	0.42×	5.83
Q1 over 71.5	16.3%	17.2%	4.9%	3.51×	5.83
Q1 under 53.5	19.1%	16.8%	31.8%	0.53×	5.95
Q1 over 69.5	15.9%	16.8%	7.3%	2.29×	5.96

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Denver Nuggets to win Q2	60.9%	61.9%	46.2%	1.34×	1.62
Utah Jazz to win Q2	34.6%	31.9%	49.3%	0.65×	3.14
Q2 tied	4.5%	4.4%	4.5%	0.98×	22.89

Q2 total 28

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 over 52.5	82.9%	83.1%	70.3%	1.18×	1.20
Q2 under 71.5	84.5%	83.0%	95.0%	0.87×	1.21
Q2 over 55.5	80.4%	83.0%	56.3%	1.47×	1.21
Q2 under 65.5	71.3%	73.0%	83.6%	0.87×	1.37
Q2 under 68.5	74.6%	72.0%	90.6%	0.80×	1.39
Q2 over 58.5	69.4%	67.4%	42.7%	1.58×	1.48
Q2 under 66.5	66.6%	67.4%	86.5%	0.78×	1.49
Q2 over 57.5	64.3%	62.0%	47.3%	1.31×	1.61
Q2 over 60.5	60.7%	60.7%	34.3%	1.77×	1.65
Q2 under 64.5	57.7%	58.2%	80.9%	0.72×	1.72
Q2 over 59.5	55.4%	57.8%	38.1%	1.52×	1.73
Q2 under 63.5	53.1%	52.7%	77.5%	0.68×	1.90
Q2 over 62.5	51.5%	52.7%	25.6%	2.06×	1.90
Q2 under 61.5	53.9%	52.2%	70.4%	0.74×	1.92
Q2 over 61.5	46.1%	47.8%	29.6%	1.62×	2.09
Q2 under 62.5	48.5%	47.3%	74.4%	0.64×	2.11
Q2 over 63.5	46.9%	47.3%	22.5%	2.11×	2.11
Q2 under 59.5	44.6%	42.2%	61.9%	0.68×	2.37
Q2 over 64.5	42.3%	41.8%	19.1%	2.19×	2.39
Q2 under 60.5	39.3%	39.3%	65.7%	0.60×	2.55
Q2 under 57.5	35.7%	38.0%	52.7%	0.72×	2.63
Q2 over 66.5	33.4%	32.6%	13.5%	2.42×	3.06
Q2 under 58.5	30.6%	32.6%	57.3%	0.57×	3.06
Q2 over 68.5	25.4%	28.0%	9.4%	2.97×	3.57
Q2 over 65.5	28.7%	27.0%	16.4%	1.65×	3.71
Q2 under 55.5	19.6%	17.0%	43.7%	0.39×	5.88
Q2 over 71.5	15.5%	17.0%	5.0%	3.41×	5.89
Q2 under 52.5	17.1%	16.9%	29.7%	0.57×	5.93

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Denver Nuggets to win Q3	61.0%	60.8%	44.3%	1.37×	1.64
Utah Jazz to win Q3	34.5%	33.8%	50.9%	0.66×	2.96
Q3 tied	4.5%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.43

Q3 total 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 under 71.5	83.4%	82.3%	94.4%	0.87×	1.22
Q3 over 55.5	82.4%	82.3%	59.9%	1.37×	1.22
Q3 under 69.5	83.8%	82.2%	91.4%	0.90×	1.22
Q3 over 53.5	81.7%	82.2%	68.3%	1.20×	1.22
Q3 over 56.5	70.8%	72.5%	55.0%	1.32×	1.38
Q3 under 68.5	73.1%	71.8%	89.3%	0.80×	1.39
Q3 over 58.5	71.7%	71.8%	45.2%	1.59×	1.39
Q3 under 66.5	64.7%	62.0%	84.7%	0.73×	1.61
Q3 over 60.5	63.2%	62.0%	36.5%	1.70×	1.61
Q3 under 64.5	55.5%	58.4%	79.2%	0.74×	1.71
Q3 under 61.5	51.7%	52.6%	67.7%	0.78×	1.90
Q3 over 62.5	53.9%	52.3%	28.1%	1.86×	1.91
Q3 under 63.5	50.8%	52.3%	75.9%	0.69×	1.91
Q3 over 63.5	49.2%	47.7%	24.1%	1.98×	2.10
Q3 under 62.5	46.1%	47.7%	71.9%	0.66×	2.10
Q3 over 61.5	48.3%	47.4%	32.3%	1.47×	2.11
Q3 over 64.5	44.5%	41.6%	20.8%	2.00×	2.40
Q3 under 60.5	36.8%	38.1%	63.5%	0.60×	2.63
Q3 over 66.5	35.3%	38.0%	15.3%	2.49×	2.63
Q3 under 58.5	28.3%	28.2%	54.8%	0.51×	3.55
Q3 over 68.5	26.9%	28.2%	10.7%	2.64×	3.55
Q3 under 56.5	29.2%	27.5%	45.0%	0.61×	3.63
Q3 under 53.5	18.3%	17.8%	31.7%	0.56×	5.62
Q3 over 69.5	16.2%	17.8%	8.6%	2.06×	5.63
Q3 under 55.5	17.6%	17.7%	40.1%	0.44×	5.66
Q3 over 71.5	16.6%	17.7%	5.6%	3.17×	5.66

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Denver Nuggets to win Q4	60.7%	57.8%	46.4%	1.25×	1.73
Utah Jazz to win Q4	34.7%	37.4%	48.3%	0.77×	2.67
Q4 tied	4.6%	5.2%	5.3%	0.98×	19.28

Q4 total 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 under 68.5	82.7%	82.0%	93.0%	0.88×	1.22
Q4 over 52.5	81.6%	82.0%	60.4%	1.36×	1.22
Q4 under 66.5	82.9%	81.9%	90.4%	0.91×	1.22
Q4 over 50.5	81.2%	81.9%	68.5%	1.20×	1.22
Q4 over 53.5	70.6%	72.3%	55.7%	1.30×	1.38
Q4 under 65.5	72.5%	71.5%	88.4%	0.81×	1.40
Q4 over 55.5	71.0%	71.5%	47.1%	1.52×	1.40
Q4 under 63.5	64.3%	61.4%	83.7%	0.73×	1.63
Q4 over 57.5	62.7%	61.4%	38.1%	1.61×	1.63
Q4 under 61.5	55.5%	58.4%	77.5%	0.75×	1.71
Q4 over 59.5	53.7%	52.5%	29.8%	1.76×	1.91
Q4 under 60.5	50.9%	52.5%	74.2%	0.71×	1.91
Q4 under 58.5	51.3%	52.3%	66.2%	0.79×	1.91
Q4 over 58.5	48.8%	47.7%	33.8%	1.41×	2.10
Q4 over 60.5	49.1%	47.5%	25.8%	1.84×	2.11
Q4 under 59.5	46.3%	47.5%	70.2%	0.68×	2.11
Q4 over 61.5	44.5%	41.6%	22.5%	1.85×	2.40
Q4 under 57.5	37.3%	38.6%	61.9%	0.62×	2.59
Q4 over 63.5	35.7%	38.6%	16.3%	2.37×	2.59
Q4 under 55.5	29.0%	28.5%	52.9%	0.54×	3.51
Q4 over 65.5	27.5%	28.5%	11.6%	2.46×	3.51
Q4 under 53.5	29.4%	27.7%	44.3%	0.62×	3.61
Q4 under 50.5	18.8%	18.1%	31.5%	0.57×	5.53
Q4 over 66.5	17.1%	18.1%	9.6%	1.89×	5.53
Q4 under 52.5	18.4%	18.0%	39.6%	0.45×	5.56
Q4 over 68.5	17.3%	18.0%	7.0%	2.57×	5.56

Team total 76

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Utah Jazz under 129.5	80.9%	80.7%	87.2%	0.93×	1.24
Denver Nuggets under 140.5	80.6%	80.7%	98.2%	0.82×	1.24
Denver Nuggets over 120.5	80.2%	80.7%	27.3%	2.95×	1.24
Utah Jazz under 128.5	81.2%	80.3%	85.5%	0.94×	1.25
Denver Nuggets over 113.5	78.9%	78.3%	48.0%	1.63×	1.28
Utah Jazz over 108.5	77.9%	78.3%	69.9%	1.12×	1.28
Utah Jazz over 109.5	79.5%	75.1%	67.0%	1.12×	1.33
Utah Jazz under 125.5	73.8%	71.9%	79.1%	0.91×	1.39
Denver Nuggets over 116.5	71.1%	71.8%	38.5%	1.87×	1.39
Utah Jazz under 126.5	73.3%	70.7%	81.5%	0.87×	1.41
Denver Nuggets over 123.5	72.4%	70.7%	20.5%	3.45×	1.41
Denver Nuggets under 137.5	72.8%	70.7%	97.0%	0.73×	1.41
Utah Jazz over 112.5	71.5%	70.7%	57.7%	1.23×	1.41
Utah Jazz over 111.5	69.9%	66.6%	61.1%	1.09×	1.50
Utah Jazz under 123.5	68.1%	66.6%	74.4%	0.90×	1.50
Denver Nuggets under 128.5	67.0%	66.6%	88.6%	0.75×	1.50
Denver Nuggets over 118.5	65.2%	66.6%	32.6%	2.04×	1.50
Utah Jazz under 124.5	67.4%	66.4%	76.8%	0.86×	1.51
Denver Nuggets over 125.5	66.4%	66.4%	16.6%	3.99×	1.51
Denver Nuggets under 135.5	66.8%	66.4%	95.8%	0.69×	1.51
Utah Jazz over 114.5	65.5%	66.4%	51.4%	1.29×	1.51
Denver Nuggets under 133.5	60.3%	61.2%	94.6%	0.65×	1.63
Utah Jazz under 122.5	61.1%	61.2%	71.8%	0.85×	1.63
Utah Jazz over 113.5	63.9%	61.2%	54.3%	1.13×	1.63
Utah Jazz under 121.5	62.0%	61.2%	69.6%	0.88×	1.64
Denver Nuggets under 126.5	60.7%	61.2%	85.3%	0.72×	1.64
Utah Jazz over 115.5	57.5%	57.9%	48.4%	1.20×	1.73
Denver Nuggets over 127.5	60.0%	57.1%	13.1%	4.35×	1.75
Utah Jazz over 116.5	59.0%	57.1%	45.3%	1.26×	1.75
Utah Jazz under 120.5	54.5%	52.3%	66.3%	0.79×	1.91
Denver Nuggets under 131.5	53.6%	52.3%	92.6%	0.56×	1.91
Utah Jazz over 118.5	52.3%	52.3%	39.7%	1.32×	1.91
Utah Jazz under 119.5	51.1%	52.3%	63.5%	0.82×	1.91
Denver Nuggets over 129.5	53.2%	52.3%	10.0%	5.24×	1.91
Denver Nuggets under 130.5	50.2%	52.3%	91.5%	0.57×	1.91
Denver Nuggets under 124.5	54.3%	52.2%	81.4%	0.64×	1.91
Denver Nuggets over 122.5	52.3%	52.2%	22.6%	2.31×	1.91
Utah Jazz over 117.5	51.0%	52.2%	42.2%	1.24×	1.91
Utah Jazz under 117.5	49.0%	47.8%	57.8%	0.83×	2.09
Denver Nuggets under 122.5	47.7%	47.8%	77.4%	0.62×	2.09
Denver Nuggets over 124.5	45.7%	47.8%	18.6%	2.57×	2.09
Denver Nuggets over 130.5	49.8%	47.7%	8.5%	5.62×	2.09
Utah Jazz under 118.5	47.7%	47.7%	60.3%	0.79×	2.09
Utah Jazz over 119.5	48.9%	47.7%	36.5%	1.31×	2.09
Denver Nuggets under 129.5	46.8%	47.7%	90.0%	0.53×	2.09
Utah Jazz over 120.5	45.5%	47.7%	33.7%	1.42×	2.09
Denver Nuggets over 131.5	46.4%	47.7%	7.4%	6.44×	2.09
Utah Jazz under 116.5	41.0%	42.9%	54.7%	0.78×	2.33
Denver Nuggets under 127.5	40.1%	42.9%	86.9%	0.49×	2.33
Utah Jazz under 115.5	42.5%	42.1%	51.6%	0.82×	2.38
Denver Nuggets over 126.5	39.3%	38.8%	14.7%	2.64×	2.58
Utah Jazz over 121.5	38.0%	38.8%	30.4%	1.28×	2.58
Utah Jazz under 113.5	36.1%	38.8%	45.7%	0.85×	2.58
Denver Nuggets over 133.5	39.7%	38.8%	5.4%	7.17×	2.58
Utah Jazz over 122.5	38.9%	38.8%	28.2%	1.38×	2.58
Utah Jazz under 114.5	34.5%	33.6%	48.6%	0.69×	2.98
Denver Nuggets under 125.5	33.6%	33.6%	83.4%	0.40×	2.98
Denver Nuggets over 135.5	33.2%	33.6%	4.2%	8.07×	2.98
Utah Jazz over 124.5	32.6%	33.6%	23.2%	1.45×	2.98
Denver Nuggets under 118.5	34.8%	33.4%	67.4%	0.50×	2.99
Denver Nuggets over 128.5	33.0%	33.4%	11.5%	2.92×	3.00
Utah Jazz over 123.5	31.9%	33.4%	25.6%	1.31×	3.00
Utah Jazz under 111.5	30.1%	33.4%	38.9%	0.86×	3.00
Utah Jazz under 112.5	28.5%	29.3%	42.3%	0.69×	3.42
Denver Nuggets under 123.5	27.6%	29.3%	79.5%	0.37×	3.42
Denver Nuggets over 137.5	27.2%	29.3%	3.0%	9.67×	3.42
Utah Jazz over 126.5	26.7%	29.3%	18.5%	1.59×	3.42
Denver Nuggets under 116.5	28.9%	28.2%	61.5%	0.46×	3.55
Utah Jazz over 125.5	26.2%	28.1%	20.9%	1.34×	3.55
Utah Jazz under 109.5	20.5%	24.9%	33.0%	0.75×	4.02
Utah Jazz under 108.5	22.1%	21.7%	30.1%	0.72×	4.60
Denver Nuggets under 113.5	21.1%	21.7%	52.0%	0.42×	4.60
Utah Jazz over 128.5	18.8%	19.7%	14.5%	1.36×	5.07
Denver Nuggets under 120.5	19.8%	19.3%	72.7%	0.27×	5.18
Utah Jazz over 129.5	19.1%	19.3%	12.8%	1.50×	5.18
Denver Nuggets over 140.5	19.4%	19.3%	1.8%	10.74×	5.18

Total points 48

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 261.5 points	86.3%	85.5%	94.8%	0.90×	1.17
Over 221.5 points	85.0%	85.5%	62.2%	1.37×	1.17
Over 229.5 points	86.3%	85.0%	46.7%	1.82×	1.18
Under 269.5 points	86.0%	85.0%	97.6%	0.87×	1.18
Over 226.5 points	78.0%	78.1%	52.7%	1.48×	1.28
Over 234.5 points	79.5%	75.6%	36.7%	2.06×	1.32
Under 264.5 points	79.0%	75.6%	96.1%	0.79×	1.32
Under 251.5 points	71.2%	71.0%	87.2%	0.81×	1.41
Over 239.5 points	70.9%	70.8%	27.5%	2.58×	1.41
Under 259.5 points	70.5%	70.8%	93.6%	0.76×	1.41
Over 231.5 points	69.3%	66.6%	42.6%	1.56×	1.50
Over 242.5 points	65.1%	65.9%	23.2%	2.84×	1.52
Under 256.5 points	64.6%	61.5%	91.6%	0.67×	1.63
Over 244.5 points	61.0%	61.5%	20.5%	3.00×	1.63
Under 254.5 points	60.4%	61.5%	89.9%	0.68×	1.63
Over 246.5 points	56.8%	56.5%	18.0%	3.14×	1.77
Under 252.5 points	56.2%	56.5%	88.1%	0.64×	1.77
Over 236.5 points	59.5%	56.0%	32.7%	1.71×	1.79
Over 238.5 points	55.3%	56.0%	29.1%	1.92×	1.79
Over 248.5 points	52.5%	52.3%	15.6%	3.36×	1.91
Under 250.5 points	51.9%	52.3%	86.1%	0.61×	1.91
Over 249.5 points	50.2%	52.3%	14.7%	3.57×	1.91
Over 240.5 points	51.1%	52.2%	26.0%	2.01×	1.92
Under 241.5 points	51.1%	52.2%	75.5%	0.69×	1.92
Under 240.5 points	48.9%	47.8%	74.0%	0.65×	2.09
Over 241.5 points	48.9%	47.8%	24.5%	1.95×	2.09
Under 249.5 points	49.8%	47.7%	85.3%	0.56×	2.10
Under 248.5 points	47.5%	47.7%	84.4%	0.56×	2.10
Over 250.5 points	48.1%	47.7%	13.9%	3.44×	2.10
Under 238.5 points	44.7%	44.0%	70.9%	0.62×	2.27
Under 236.5 points	40.5%	44.0%	67.3%	0.65×	2.27
Under 246.5 points	43.2%	43.5%	82.0%	0.53×	2.30
Over 252.5 points	43.8%	43.5%	11.9%	3.65×	2.30
Over 254.5 points	39.6%	38.5%	10.1%	3.83×	2.60
Under 244.5 points	39.0%	38.5%	79.5%	0.48×	2.60
Over 256.5 points	35.4%	38.5%	8.4%	4.56×	2.60
Under 242.5 points	34.9%	34.1%	76.8%	0.44×	2.93
Under 231.5 points	30.7%	33.4%	57.4%	0.58×	3.00
Over 259.5 points	29.5%	29.2%	6.4%	4.57×	3.43
Under 239.5 points	29.1%	29.2%	72.5%	0.40×	3.43
Over 251.5 points	28.8%	29.0%	12.8%	2.26×	3.45
Over 264.5 points	21.0%	24.4%	3.9%	6.25×	4.10
Under 234.5 points	20.5%	24.4%	63.3%	0.38×	4.10
Under 226.5 points	22.0%	21.9%	47.3%	0.46×	4.57
Over 269.5 points	14.0%	15.0%	2.4%	6.22×	6.68
Under 229.5 points	13.7%	15.0%	53.3%	0.28×	6.68
Under 221.5 points	15.0%	14.5%	37.8%	0.38×	6.88
Over 261.5 points	13.7%	14.5%	5.2%	2.81×	6.88

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Denver Nuggets to win both halves	43.8%	40.7%	17.8%	2.28×	2.46
Utah Jazz to win both halves	7.0%	8.8%	25.2%	0.35×	11.32

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Denver Nuggets by 26+	16.2%	16.8%	3.9%	4.34×	5.97
Denver Nuggets by 6-10	13.7%	12.3%	12.3%	1.00×	8.11
Denver Nuggets by 11-15	13.8%	12.3%	8.0%	1.54×	8.11
Denver Nuggets by 1-5	12.0%	12.3%	12.3%	1.01×	8.11
Denver Nuggets by 16-20	12.4%	12.3%	4.9%	2.54×	8.11
Denver Nuggets by 21-25	10.0%	7.5%	3.0%	2.45×	13.40
Utah Jazz by 1-5	8.8%	7.5%	12.8%	0.58×	13.40
Utah Jazz by 6-10	6.0%	7.5%	13.9%	0.53×	13.40
Utah Jazz by 11-15	3.6%	2.0%	10.8%	0.19×	49.30
Utah Jazz by 16-20	1.9%	2.0%	7.3%	0.28×	49.31
Utah Jazz by 21-25	0.9%	2.0%	4.7%	0.43×	49.32
Utah Jazz by 26+	0.6%	2.0%	6.2%	0.33×	49.32

Utah Jazz v Denver Nuggets — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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