Cleveland Guardians v Detroit Tigers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 4 September 2026 · MLB · 2026

The model serving this sport has not been backtested.

Nothing here has been checked against what actually happened, so treat every number as untested until you have run python -m pipeline.backtest --sport baseball.

MLB results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:08

Cleveland Guardians

19:10

Detroit Tigers

AI prediction

deep No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Cleveland Guardians win

43.6%

Draw

14.5%

Detroit Tigers win

41.9%

441542

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
deep	441542	3.87–3.81	3-3 4%	98%	96%
mlb-dc	441542	3.87–3.81	3-3 4%	98%	96%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians to win	43.6%	43.6%	42.6%	1.02×	2.29
Detroit Tigers to win	41.7%	41.7%	31.2%	1.34×	2.40
Draw	14.7%	14.7%	26.3%	0.56×	6.80

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians (1UP)	72.3%	72.3%	58.7%	1.23×	1.38
Detroit Tigers (1UP)	71.0%	71.0%	49.3%	1.44×	1.41

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians (2UP)	47.3%	47.3%	44.5%	1.06×	2.11
Detroit Tigers (2UP)	45.7%	45.7%	33.4%	1.37×	2.19

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Tigers (+2.5)	81.9%	81.9%	90.3%	0.91×	1.22
Detroit Tigers (+1.5)	70.5%	70.5%	78.1%	0.90×	1.42
Cleveland Guardians (+0.5)	58.3%	58.3%	68.8%	0.85×	1.72
Detroit Tigers (+0.5)	56.4%	56.4%	57.4%	0.98×	1.77
Cleveland Guardians (-0.5)	43.6%	43.6%	42.6%	1.02×	2.29
Detroit Tigers (-0.5)	41.7%	41.7%	31.2%	1.34×	2.40
Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)	29.5%	29.5%	21.9%	1.35×	3.39
Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)	18.1%	18.1%	9.7%	1.85×	5.54

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians (away no bet)	74.8%	74.8%	61.8%	1.21×	1.34
Draw (away no bet)	25.2%	25.2%	38.2%	0.66×	3.97

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves over 1.5 goals	77.5%	77.5%	16.9%	4.59×	1.29
Not both halves over 1.5	22.5%	22.5%	83.1%	0.27×	4.44

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	98.8%	98.8%	64.8%	1.52×	1.01
Both halves under 1.5 goals	1.2%	1.2%	35.2%	0.04×	80.54

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	95.6%	95.6%	57.4%	1.66×	1.05
Cleveland Guardians to score 2+ in a row	73.2%	73.2%	36.2%	2.02×	1.37
Detroit Tigers to score 2+ in a row	72.1%	72.1%	27.9%	2.58×	1.39
Either team to score 3+ in a row	65.8%	65.8%	22.4%	2.94×	1.52
Cleveland Guardians to score 3+ in a row	38.6%	38.6%	13.9%	2.77×	2.59
Detroit Tigers to score 3+ in a row	37.1%	37.1%	8.9%	4.19×	2.69

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	55.6%	55.6%	3.8%	14.67×	1.80
3-3	4.2%	4.2%	1.2%	3.47×	23.89
4-3	4.1%	4.1%	0.6%	7.16×	24.66
3-4	4.0%	4.0%	0.5%	8.10×	25.08
4-4	3.9%	3.9%	0.2%	19.62×	25.89
3-2	3.3%	3.3%	2.9%	1.14×	30.33
2-3	3.2%	3.2%	2.2%	1.46×	30.84
4-2	3.2%	3.2%	1.0%	3.16×	31.32
2-4	3.1%	3.1%	0.5%	5.98×	32.38
2-2	2.6%	2.6%	5.8%	0.44×	39.17
3-1	1.7%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	57.79
4-1	1.7%	1.7%	1.8%	0.93×	59.67
1-3	1.7%	1.7%	2.8%	0.59×	59.74
1-4	1.6%	1.6%	1.0%	1.54×	62.72
2-1	1.3%	1.3%	8.5%	0.16×	74.62
1-2	1.3%	1.3%	7.0%	0.19×	75.87
1-1	0.6%	0.6%	11.4%	0.05×	180.68
3-0	0.5%	0.5%	3.9%	0.12×	220.16
4-0	0.4%	0.4%	1.7%	0.25×	227.32
0-3	0.4%	0.4%	2.5%	0.17×	231.45
0-4	0.4%	0.4%	1.1%	0.38×	242.99
2-0	0.4%	0.4%	6.5%	0.05×	284.30
0-2	0.3%	0.3%	5.3%	0.06×	293.94
1-0	0.3%	0.3%	8.8%	0.04×	312.54
0-1	0.3%	0.3%	7.0%	0.05×	315.50
0-0	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians leading at HT (DNB)	53.9%	53.9%	56.8%	0.95×	1.85
Detroit Tigers leading at HT (DNB)	46.1%	46.1%	43.2%	1.07×	2.17

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians or Detroit Tigers (12)	85.3%	85.3%	73.7%	1.16×	1.17
Cleveland Guardians or draw (1X)	58.3%	58.3%	68.8%	0.85×	1.72
Detroit Tigers or draw (X2)	56.4%	56.4%	57.4%	0.98×	1.77

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians or draw (1UP)	72.3%	72.3%	74.6%	0.97×	1.38
Detroit Tigers or draw (1UP)	71.0%	71.0%	64.5%	1.10×	1.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians (DNB)	51.1%	51.1%	57.7%	0.89×	1.96
Detroit Tigers (DNB)	48.9%	48.9%	42.3%	1.16×	2.05

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians to score first	50.4%	50.4%	50.2%	1.00×	1.98
Detroit Tigers to score first	49.6%	49.6%	42.0%	1.18×	2.02
No goal scored	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	95.5%	95.5%	54.0%	1.77×	1.05
Not both teams to score	4.5%	4.5%	46.0%	0.10×	22.16

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score 2+	80.0%	80.0%	15.5%	5.16×	1.25
Not both teams to score 2+	20.0%	20.0%	84.5%	0.24×	5.01

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score in 2nd half	79.7%	79.7%	29.1%	2.74×	1.26
Not both to score in 2nd half	20.3%	20.3%	70.9%	0.29×	4.92

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score by HT	63.3%	63.3%	18.0%	3.52×	1.58
Not both to score by HT	36.7%	36.7%	82.0%	0.45×	2.73

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
7+ goals	63.9%	63.9%	2.4%	26.50×	1.57
4-6 goals	30.7%	30.7%	29.1%	1.05×	3.26
2-3 goals	4.8%	4.8%	45.0%	0.11×	20.88
0-1 goals	0.6%	0.6%	23.6%	0.03×	157.01

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Tigers to score 3+	72.9%	72.9%	13.9%	5.25×	1.37
Detroit Tigers to score exactly 2	16.2%	16.2%	22.3%	0.73×	6.16
Detroit Tigers to score exactly 1	8.5%	8.5%	34.3%	0.25×	11.74
Detroit Tigers to score exactly 0	2.3%	2.3%	29.6%	0.08×	42.98

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians to score 3+	74.0%	74.0%	20.8%	3.55×	1.35
Cleveland Guardians to score exactly 2	15.7%	15.7%	23.6%	0.67×	6.36
Cleveland Guardians to score exactly 1	8.1%	8.1%	31.4%	0.26×	12.32
Cleveland Guardians to score exactly 0	2.2%	2.2%	24.2%	0.09×	45.74

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians leading at HT	41.3%	41.3%	33.2%	1.24×	2.42
Detroit Tigers leading at HT	35.2%	35.2%	25.3%	1.39×	2.84
Draw at HT	23.5%	23.5%	41.5%	0.57×	4.26

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians -1: 2	56.4%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Cleveland Guardians -1: 1	29.5%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
Cleveland Guardians -1: X	14.1%	14.1%	—	—	7.08

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Tigers (0:1)	56.4%	56.4%	57.4%	0.98×	1.77
Cleveland Guardians (0:1)	29.5%	29.5%	21.9%	1.35×	3.39
Draw (0:1)	14.1%	14.1%	20.7%	0.68×	7.08

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Tigers (0:2)	70.5%	70.5%	78.1%	0.90×	1.42
Cleveland Guardians (0:2)	18.1%	18.1%	9.7%	1.85×	5.54
Draw (0:2)	11.4%	11.4%	12.2%	0.94×	8.75

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Tigers (0:3)	81.9%	81.9%	90.3%	0.91×	1.22
Cleveland Guardians (0:3)	9.9%	9.9%	3.7%	2.65×	10.07
Draw (0:3)	8.1%	8.1%	6.0%	1.35×	12.29

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Tigers (0:4)	90.1%	90.1%	96.3%	0.94×	1.11
Draw (0:4)	5.1%	5.1%	2.6%	1.94×	19.74
Cleveland Guardians (0:4)	4.9%	4.9%	1.2%	4.20×	20.57

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians (1:0)	58.3%	58.3%	68.8%	0.85×	1.72
Detroit Tigers (1:0)	27.8%	27.8%	14.5%	1.92×	3.60
Draw (1:0)	13.9%	13.9%	16.7%	0.83×	7.20

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians (2:0)	72.2%	72.2%	85.5%	0.84×	1.39
Detroit Tigers (2:0)	16.8%	16.8%	5.9%	2.85×	5.96
Draw (2:0)	11.0%	11.0%	8.7%	1.27×	9.06

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	60.9%	60.9%	47.5%	1.28×	1.64
1st half highest scoring	25.8%	25.8%	25.7%	1.00×	3.87
Halves equal	13.3%	13.3%	26.7%	0.50×	7.51

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Tigers (home no bet)	73.9%	73.9%	54.3%	1.36×	1.35
Draw (home no bet)	26.1%	26.1%	45.7%	0.57×	3.84

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other HT score	38.3%	38.3%	4.7%	8.23×	2.61
HT 1-1	10.4%	10.4%	10.0%	1.04×	9.57
HT 2-1	8.7%	8.7%	3.2%	2.77×	11.46
HT 1-2	8.0%	8.0%	2.7%	3.00×	12.53
HT 1-0	6.9%	6.9%	20.3%	0.34×	14.50
HT 2-2	6.6%	6.6%	0.9%	7.72×	15.05
HT 0-1	6.3%	6.3%	16.1%	0.39×	15.85
HT 2-0	5.7%	5.7%	7.0%	0.82×	17.47
HT 0-2	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	1.01×	20.87
HT 0-0	4.2%	4.2%	30.7%	0.14×	23.85

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians at HT / Cleveland Guardians at FT	29.2%	29.2%	25.3%	1.15×	3.42
Detroit Tigers at HT / Detroit Tigers at FT	25.4%	25.4%	17.0%	1.49×	3.94
Draw at HT / Detroit Tigers at FT	9.8%	9.8%	11.4%	0.86×	10.19
Draw at HT / Cleveland Guardians at FT	9.2%	9.2%	14.4%	0.64×	10.91
Cleveland Guardians at HT / Detroit Tigers at FT	6.5%	6.5%	2.9%	2.28×	15.36
Cleveland Guardians at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	5.5%	5.1%	1.09×	18.04
Detroit Tigers at HT / Cleveland Guardians at FT	5.2%	5.2%	2.9%	1.82×	19.09
Detroit Tigers at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	4.6%	5.5%	0.85×	21.54
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	4.5%	15.8%	0.29×	22.16

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians to score last	50.4%	50.4%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
Detroit Tigers to score last	49.6%	49.6%	41.9%	1.18×	2.02
No goal scored	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	100.0%	100.0%	92.2%	1.08×	1.00
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	86.9%	86.9%	47.3%	1.84×	1.15
Cleveland Guardians to lead by 1 at any time	72.3%	72.3%	58.7%	1.23×	1.38
Detroit Tigers to lead by 1 at any time	71.0%	71.0%	49.3%	1.44×	1.41
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	54.4%	54.4%	19.0%	2.86×	1.84
Cleveland Guardians to lead by 2 at any time	47.3%	47.3%	27.8%	1.71×	2.11
Detroit Tigers to lead by 2 at any time	45.7%	45.7%	19.9%	2.30×	2.19
Cleveland Guardians to lead by 3 at any time	28.1%	28.1%	11.9%	2.36×	3.56
Detroit Tigers to lead by 3 at any time	26.6%	26.6%	7.2%	3.70×	3.76

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
7+ goals	63.9%	63.9%	2.4%	26.50×	1.57
2-6 goals	35.5%	35.5%	74.0%	0.48×	2.82
3-6 goals	34.2%	34.2%	50.9%	0.67×	2.92
4-6 goals	30.7%	30.7%	29.1%	1.05×	3.26
5-6 goals	23.9%	23.9%	13.1%	1.82×	4.19
1-5 goals	22.7%	22.7%	85.7%	0.26×	4.41
2-5 goals	22.1%	22.1%	69.9%	0.32×	4.53
3-5 goals	20.8%	20.8%	46.8%	0.45×	4.80
4-5 goals	17.3%	17.3%	25.0%	0.69×	5.79
1-4 goals	12.2%	12.2%	76.8%	0.16×	8.17
2-4 goals	11.6%	11.6%	61.0%	0.19×	8.62
3-4 goals	10.4%	10.4%	37.8%	0.27×	9.66
1-3 goals	5.4%	5.4%	60.8%	0.09×	18.43
2-3 goals	4.8%	4.8%	45.0%	0.11×	20.88
1-2 goals	1.9%	1.9%	39.0%	0.05×	53.13

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians never behind	29.0%	29.0%	50.7%	0.57×	3.45
Detroit Tigers never behind	27.7%	27.7%	41.3%	0.67×	3.61

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.2%	50.2%	48.5%	1.04×	1.99
Even number of goals	49.8%	49.8%	51.6%	0.97×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	50.1%	50.1%	54.6%	0.92×	2.00
Odd goals in 1st half	49.9%	49.9%	45.4%	1.10×	2.00

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd goals in 2nd half	50.0%	50.0%	47.9%	1.04×	2.00
Even goals in 2nd half	50.0%	50.0%	52.1%	0.96×	2.00

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	100.0%	100.0%	92.2%	1.08×	1.00
Over 1.5 goals	99.4%	99.4%	76.4%	1.30×	1.01
Over 2.5 goals	98.1%	98.1%	53.3%	1.84×	1.02
Over 3.5 goals	94.6%	94.6%	31.5%	3.01×	1.06
Over 4.5 goals	87.8%	87.8%	15.5%	5.67×	1.14
Over 5.5 goals	77.3%	77.3%	6.5%	11.81×	1.29
Under 5.5 goals	22.7%	22.7%	93.5%	0.24×	4.41
Under 4.5 goals	12.2%	12.2%	84.5%	0.14×	8.17
Under 3.5 goals	5.4%	5.4%	68.5%	0.08×	18.43
Under 2.5 goals	1.9%	1.9%	46.7%	0.04×	53.13
Under 1.5 goals	0.6%	0.6%	23.6%	0.03×	157.01
Under 0.5 goals	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	99.4%	99.4%	69.3%	1.43×	1.01
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	98.0%	98.0%	40.2%	2.44×	1.02
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	94.2%	94.2%	18.4%	5.11×	1.06
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	86.3%	86.3%	7.2%	12.01×	1.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	73.8%	73.8%	2.5%	29.33×	1.36
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	26.2%	26.2%	97.5%	0.27×	3.82
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	13.7%	13.7%	92.8%	0.15×	7.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	5.8%	5.8%	81.6%	0.07×	17.17
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	2.0%	2.0%	59.8%	0.03×	51.24
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	0.6%	0.6%	30.7%	0.02×	155.05

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians to score in both halves	72.0%	72.0%	28.9%	2.49×	1.39
Detroit Tigers to score in both halves	70.1%	70.1%	21.9%	3.19×	1.43
Detroit Tigers not to score in both halves	29.9%	29.9%	78.1%	0.38×	3.35
Cleveland Guardians not to score in both halves	28.0%	28.0%	71.1%	0.39×	3.57

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	95.5%	95.5%	54.0%	1.77×	1.05
Only Cleveland Guardians scores	2.3%	2.3%	21.8%	0.11×	42.98
Only Detroit Tigers scores	2.2%	2.2%	16.5%	0.13×	45.74
Neither team scores	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	77.3%	77.3%	6.5%	11.81×	1.29
Exactly 5 goals	10.5%	10.5%	9.0%	1.17×	9.56
Exactly 4 goals	6.8%	6.8%	16.0%	0.43×	14.69
Exactly 3 goals	3.5%	3.5%	21.8%	0.16×	28.21
Exactly 2 goals	1.2%	1.2%	23.2%	0.05×	80.29
Exactly 1 goals	0.6%	0.6%	15.8%	0.04×	157.01
Exactly 0 goals	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	93.6%	93.6%	48.7%	1.92×	1.07
1 goal in 2nd half	5.2%	5.2%	32.0%	0.16×	19.24
No goals in 2nd half	1.2%	1.2%	19.3%	0.06×	84.79

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Tigers not to win both halves	85.4%	85.4%	92.0%	0.93×	1.17
Cleveland Guardians not to win both halves	84.0%	84.0%	87.0%	0.97×	1.19
Cleveland Guardians to win both halves	16.0%	16.0%	13.0%	1.23×	6.26
Detroit Tigers to win both halves	14.6%	14.6%	8.0%	1.82×	6.84

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cleveland Guardians by 3+	18.1%	18.1%	9.7%	1.85×	5.54
Detroit Tigers by 3+	16.8%	16.8%	5.9%	2.85×	5.96
Draw	14.7%	14.7%	26.3%	0.56×	6.80
Cleveland Guardians by 1	14.1%	14.1%	20.7%	0.68×	7.08
Detroit Tigers by 1	13.9%	13.9%	16.7%	0.83×	7.20
Cleveland Guardians by 2	11.4%	11.4%	12.2%	0.94×	8.75
Detroit Tigers by 2	11.0%	11.0%	8.7%	1.27×	9.06

Cleveland Guardians v Detroit Tigers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

What the model said

All markets

Sport

Baseball sections

Preferences

Match