Receipts
Baseball: what the model called before the match, and what happened
The model serving this sport has not been backtested.
Nothing here has been checked against what actually happened, so treat every
number as untested until you have run
python -m pipeline.backtest --sport baseball.How to read this honestly
Every prediction here was made out of sample — the model was refitted
repeatedly and only ever saw matches played before the one it was predicting. That
is what makes them forecasts rather than hindsight.
Two are kept per match, win or lose: the result call (who wins) and the model's most confident selection of any kind. Neither is chosen after the fact, which is the point — a page showing only the winners would look like a record and work like an advertisement.
A hit rate on its own means nothing. Backing the home side wins a lot of football matches without predicting anything, so the baseline is shown beside every rate. The gap between them is the only part that is evidence of skill.
For the same reason the list defaults to against the grain first. Sorting by confidence puts a 100% call on a 97–39 mismatch at the top, which is correct and proves nothing — anyone would call it. A confident call on the side the baseline does not back is the one worth showing.
Two are kept per match, win or lose: the result call (who wins) and the model's most confident selection of any kind. Neither is chosen after the fact, which is the point — a page showing only the winners would look like a record and work like an advertisement.
A hit rate on its own means nothing. Backing the home side wins a lot of football matches without predicting anything, so the baseline is shown beside every rate. The gap between them is the only part that is evidence of skill.
For the same reason the list defaults to against the grain first. Sorting by confidence puts a 100% call on a 97–39 mismatch at the top, which is correct and proves nothing — anyone would call it. A confident call on the side the baseline does not back is the one worth showing.
No settled predictions for baseball yet.
They come from the walk-forward replay: the backtest stores what the model said before each match, and settlement scores it against what happened.
The pipeline cannot run on this host, so the result is carried here instead: sign in to the admin panel and open System → Maintenance → Data snapshots, then load
They come from the walk-forward replay: the backtest stores what the model said before each match, and settlement scores it against what happened.
The pipeline cannot run on this host, so the result is carried here instead: sign in to the admin panel and open System → Maintenance → Data snapshots, then load
settlement.sql. It is safe to press twice — every row is
insert-if-absent and it can never overwrite anything newer.