Track record
Baseball: what the model predicted, against what actually happened
The model serving this sport has not been backtested.
Nothing here has been checked against what actually happened, so treat every
number as untested until you have run
python -m pipeline.backtest --sport baseball.What you are looking at
Two records, answering different questions.
Historical replays every prediction the walk-forward backtest made — the model
only ever saw matches played before the one it was predicting, so these are genuine
forecasts, and there are enough of them to mean something.
Live is picks this app actually published, settled after the fact. It starts
empty and grows.
Historical uses the raw model probability rather than the calibrated one, because calibration is itself derived from this history — scoring against it would be marking its own homework.
Historical uses the raw model probability rather than the calibrated one, because calibration is itself derived from this history — scoring against it would be marking its own homework.
No baseball track record yet.
Settle this sport's out-of-sample picks first:
./.venv/bin/python -m pipeline.settle --sport baseball