New York Mets v San Francisco Giants — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 4 September 2026 · MLB · 2026

The model serving this sport has not been backtested.

Nothing here has been checked against what actually happened, so treat every number as untested until you have run python -m pipeline.backtest --sport baseball.

MLB results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 04:49

New York Mets

19:10

San Francisco Giants

AI prediction

mlb-dc No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

New York Mets win

47.2%

Draw

13.5%

San Francisco Giants win

39.3%

471339

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
mlb-dc	471339	4.73–4.42	4-4 4%	99%	98%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets to win	47.1%	47.1%	42.6%	1.11×	2.12
San Francisco Giants to win	39.1%	39.1%	31.2%	1.25×	2.56
Draw	13.8%	13.8%	26.3%	0.52×	7.26

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets (1UP)	76.3%	76.3%	58.7%	1.30×	1.31
San Francisco Giants (1UP)	71.3%	71.3%	49.3%	1.45×	1.40

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets (2UP)	53.2%	53.2%	44.5%	1.20×	1.88
San Francisco Giants (2UP)	46.4%	46.4%	33.4%	1.39×	2.16

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Francisco Giants (+2.5)	78.1%	78.1%	90.3%	0.86×	1.28
San Francisco Giants (+1.5)	66.4%	66.4%	78.1%	0.85×	1.51
New York Mets (+0.5)	60.9%	60.9%	68.8%	0.88×	1.64
San Francisco Giants (+0.5)	52.9%	52.9%	57.4%	0.92×	1.89
New York Mets (-0.5)	47.1%	47.1%	42.6%	1.11×	2.12
San Francisco Giants (-0.5)	39.1%	39.1%	31.2%	1.25×	2.56
New York Mets (-1.5)	33.6%	33.6%	21.9%	1.54×	2.98
New York Mets (-2.5)	21.9%	21.9%	9.7%	2.25×	4.56

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets (away no bet)	77.4%	77.4%	61.8%	1.25×	1.29
Draw (away no bet)	22.6%	22.6%	38.2%	0.59×	4.42

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves over 1.5 goals	86.3%	86.3%	16.9%	5.12×	1.16
Not both halves over 1.5	13.7%	13.7%	83.1%	0.16×	7.32

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	99.6%	99.6%	64.8%	1.54×	1.00
Both halves under 1.5 goals	0.4%	0.4%	35.2%	0.01×	249.91

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	97.8%	97.8%	57.4%	1.70×	1.02
New York Mets to score 2+ in a row	81.0%	81.0%	36.2%	2.24×	1.24
San Francisco Giants to score 2+ in a row	76.7%	76.7%	27.9%	2.75×	1.30
Either team to score 3+ in a row	73.0%	73.0%	22.4%	3.26×	1.37
New York Mets to score 3+ in a row	46.7%	46.7%	13.9%	3.35×	2.14
San Francisco Giants to score 3+ in a row	40.6%	40.6%	8.9%	4.58×	2.47

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	71.9%	71.9%	3.8%	18.97×	1.39
4-4	3.7%	3.7%	0.2%	18.76×	27.08
4-3	3.3%	3.3%	0.6%	5.91×	29.90
3-4	3.1%	3.1%	0.5%	6.35×	32.02
3-3	2.8%	2.8%	1.2%	2.35×	35.35
4-2	2.3%	2.3%	1.0%	2.25×	44.01
2-4	2.0%	2.0%	0.5%	3.83×	50.47
3-2	1.9%	1.9%	2.9%	0.66×	52.03
2-3	1.8%	1.8%	2.2%	0.81×	55.72
2-2	1.2%	1.2%	5.8%	0.21×	82.01
4-1	1.0%	1.0%	1.8%	0.57×	97.17
3-1	0.9%	0.9%	4.7%	0.19×	114.88
1-4	0.8%	0.8%	1.0%	0.81×	119.33
1-3	0.8%	0.8%	2.8%	0.27×	131.74
2-1	0.6%	0.6%	8.5%	0.07×	181.08
1-2	0.5%	0.5%	7.0%	0.07×	193.92
4-0	0.2%	0.2%	1.7%	0.13×	429.09
3-0	0.2%	0.2%	3.9%	0.05×	507.29
1-1	0.2%	0.2%	11.4%	0.02×	535.22
0-4	0.2%	0.2%	1.1%	0.16×	564.30
0-3	0.2%	0.2%	2.5%	0.06×	622.99
2-0	0.1%	0.1%	6.5%	0.02×	799.66
0-2	0.1%	0.1%	5.3%	0.02×	917.04
1-0	0.1%	0.1%	8.8%	0.01×	1,004.04
0-1	0.1%	0.1%	7.0%	0.01×	1,040.61
0-0	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets leading at HT (DNB)	56.6%	56.6%	56.8%	1.00×	1.77
San Francisco Giants leading at HT (DNB)	43.4%	43.4%	43.2%	1.00×	2.30

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets or San Francisco Giants (12)	86.2%	86.2%	73.7%	1.17×	1.16
New York Mets or draw (1X)	60.9%	60.9%	68.8%	0.88×	1.64
San Francisco Giants or draw (X2)	52.9%	52.9%	57.4%	0.92×	1.89

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets or draw (1UP)	76.3%	76.3%	74.6%	1.02×	1.31
San Francisco Giants or draw (1UP)	71.3%	71.3%	64.5%	1.11×	1.40

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets (DNB)	54.7%	54.7%	57.7%	0.95×	1.83
San Francisco Giants (DNB)	45.3%	45.3%	42.3%	1.07×	2.21

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets to score first	51.7%	51.7%	50.2%	1.03×	1.93
San Francisco Giants to score first	48.3%	48.3%	42.0%	1.15×	2.07
No goal scored	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	97.8%	97.8%	54.0%	1.81×	1.02
Not both teams to score	2.2%	2.2%	46.0%	0.05×	45.23

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score 2+	88.4%	88.4%	15.5%	5.70×	1.13
Not both teams to score 2+	11.6%	11.6%	84.5%	0.14×	8.65

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score in 2nd half	86.4%	86.4%	29.1%	2.97×	1.16
Not both to score in 2nd half	13.6%	13.6%	70.9%	0.19×	7.33

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score by HT	71.9%	71.9%	18.0%	4.00×	1.39
Not both to score by HT	28.1%	28.1%	82.0%	0.34×	3.56

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
7+ goals	79.7%	79.7%	2.4%	33.03×	1.26
4-6 goals	18.3%	18.3%	29.1%	0.63×	5.46
2-3 goals	1.8%	1.8%	45.0%	0.04×	54.16
0-1 goals	0.2%	0.2%	23.6%	0.01×	511.00

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Francisco Giants to score 3+	81.3%	81.3%	13.9%	5.84×	1.23
San Francisco Giants to score exactly 2	12.0%	12.0%	22.3%	0.54×	8.31
San Francisco Giants to score exactly 1	5.4%	5.4%	34.3%	0.16×	18.35
San Francisco Giants to score exactly 0	1.3%	1.3%	29.6%	0.04×	78.78

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets to score 3+	84.6%	84.6%	20.8%	4.07×	1.18
New York Mets to score exactly 2	10.1%	10.1%	23.6%	0.43×	9.87
New York Mets to score exactly 1	4.3%	4.3%	31.4%	0.14×	23.34
New York Mets to score exactly 0	0.9%	0.9%	24.2%	0.04×	106.20

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets leading at HT	44.5%	44.5%	33.2%	1.34×	2.25
San Francisco Giants leading at HT	34.2%	34.2%	25.3%	1.35×	2.93
Draw at HT	21.3%	21.3%	41.5%	0.51×	4.70

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets -1: 2	52.9%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
New York Mets -1: 1	33.6%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
New York Mets -1: X	13.5%	13.5%	—	—	7.39

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Francisco Giants (0:1)	52.9%	52.9%	57.4%	0.92×	1.89
New York Mets (0:1)	33.6%	33.6%	21.9%	1.54×	2.98
Draw (0:1)	13.5%	13.5%	20.7%	0.65×	7.39

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Francisco Giants (0:2)	66.4%	66.4%	78.1%	0.85×	1.51
New York Mets (0:2)	21.9%	21.9%	9.7%	2.25×	4.56
Draw (0:2)	11.7%	11.7%	12.2%	0.96×	8.58

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Francisco Giants (0:3)	78.1%	78.1%	90.3%	0.86×	1.28
New York Mets (0:3)	13.0%	13.0%	3.7%	3.48×	7.69
Draw (0:3)	8.9%	8.9%	6.0%	1.48×	11.19

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Francisco Giants (0:4)	87.0%	87.0%	96.3%	0.90×	1.15
New York Mets (0:4)	6.9%	6.9%	1.2%	6.00×	14.42
Draw (0:4)	6.1%	6.1%	2.6%	2.33×	16.46

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets (1:0)	60.9%	60.9%	68.8%	0.88×	1.64
San Francisco Giants (1:0)	26.5%	26.5%	14.5%	1.82×	3.78
Draw (1:0)	12.6%	12.6%	16.7%	0.76×	7.93

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets (2:0)	73.5%	73.5%	85.5%	0.86×	1.36
San Francisco Giants (2:0)	16.4%	16.4%	5.9%	2.78×	6.12
Draw (2:0)	10.1%	10.1%	8.7%	1.17×	9.87

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	62.5%	62.5%	47.5%	1.31×	1.60
1st half highest scoring	25.3%	25.3%	25.7%	0.98×	3.96
Halves equal	12.3%	12.3%	26.7%	0.46×	8.14

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Francisco Giants (home no bet)	74.0%	74.0%	54.3%	1.36×	1.35
Draw (home no bet)	26.0%	26.0%	45.7%	0.57×	3.84

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other HT score	50.2%	50.2%	4.7%	10.80×	1.99
HT 2-1	8.2%	8.2%	3.2%	2.61×	12.15
HT 1-1	8.1%	8.1%	10.0%	0.81×	12.37
HT 2-2	7.3%	7.3%	0.9%	8.44×	13.76
HT 1-2	7.1%	7.1%	2.7%	2.69×	13.99
HT 2-0	4.7%	4.7%	7.0%	0.66×	21.47
HT 1-0	4.6%	4.6%	20.3%	0.23×	21.79
HT 0-1	4.0%	4.0%	16.1%	0.25×	25.08
HT 0-2	3.5%	3.5%	4.7%	0.74×	28.45
HT 0-0	2.3%	2.3%	30.7%	0.07×	43.85

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets at HT / New York Mets at FT	32.5%	32.5%	25.3%	1.28×	3.07
San Francisco Giants at HT / San Francisco Giants at FT	24.0%	24.0%	17.0%	1.41×	4.17
Draw at HT / New York Mets at FT	8.9%	8.9%	14.4%	0.61×	11.29
Draw at HT / San Francisco Giants at FT	8.6%	8.6%	11.4%	0.75×	11.70
New York Mets at HT / San Francisco Giants at FT	6.6%	6.6%	2.9%	2.31×	15.17
San Francisco Giants at HT / New York Mets at FT	5.7%	5.7%	2.9%	2.00×	17.39
New York Mets at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	5.4%	5.1%	1.07×	18.50
San Francisco Giants at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	4.5%	5.5%	0.82×	22.31
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.9%	15.8%	0.25×	25.78

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets to score last	51.7%	51.7%	50.3%	1.03×	1.94
San Francisco Giants to score last	48.3%	48.3%	41.9%	1.15×	2.07
No goal scored	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	100.0%	100.0%	92.2%	1.08×	1.00
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	91.0%	91.0%	47.3%	1.92×	1.10
New York Mets to lead by 1 at any time	76.3%	76.3%	58.7%	1.30×	1.31
San Francisco Giants to lead by 1 at any time	71.3%	71.3%	49.3%	1.45×	1.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	61.0%	61.0%	19.0%	3.20×	1.64
New York Mets to lead by 2 at any time	53.2%	53.2%	27.8%	1.92×	1.88
San Francisco Giants to lead by 2 at any time	46.4%	46.4%	19.9%	2.34×	2.16
New York Mets to lead by 3 at any time	33.9%	33.9%	11.9%	2.86×	2.95
San Francisco Giants to lead by 3 at any time	27.5%	27.5%	7.2%	3.83×	3.63

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
7+ goals	79.7%	79.7%	2.4%	33.03×	1.26
2-6 goals	20.2%	20.2%	74.0%	0.27×	4.96
3-6 goals	19.7%	19.7%	50.9%	0.39×	5.07
4-6 goals	18.3%	18.3%	29.1%	0.63×	5.46
5-6 goals	15.0%	15.0%	13.1%	1.15×	6.65
1-5 goals	11.3%	11.3%	85.7%	0.13×	8.88
2-5 goals	11.1%	11.1%	69.9%	0.16×	9.04
3-5 goals	10.6%	10.6%	46.8%	0.23×	9.39
4-5 goals	9.2%	9.2%	25.0%	0.37×	10.85
1-4 goals	5.3%	5.3%	76.8%	0.07×	18.86
2-4 goals	5.1%	5.1%	61.0%	0.08×	19.59
3-4 goals	4.7%	4.7%	37.8%	0.12×	21.35
1-3 goals	2.0%	2.0%	60.8%	0.03×	48.97
2-3 goals	1.8%	1.8%	45.0%	0.04×	54.16
1-2 goals	0.6%	0.6%	39.0%	0.02×	162.17

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets never behind	28.7%	28.7%	50.7%	0.56×	3.49
San Francisco Giants never behind	23.7%	23.7%	41.3%	0.57×	4.23

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.1%	50.1%	48.5%	1.03×	2.00
Even number of goals	49.9%	49.9%	51.6%	0.97×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	50.0%	50.0%	54.6%	0.92×	2.00
Odd goals in 1st half	50.0%	50.0%	45.4%	1.10×	2.00

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd goals in 2nd half	50.0%	50.0%	47.9%	1.04×	2.00
Even goals in 2nd half	50.0%	50.0%	52.1%	0.96×	2.00

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	100.0%	100.0%	92.2%	1.08×	1.00
Over 1.5 goals	99.8%	99.8%	76.4%	1.31×	1.00
Over 2.5 goals	99.4%	99.4%	53.3%	1.87×	1.01
Over 3.5 goals	98.0%	98.0%	31.5%	3.11×	1.02
Over 4.5 goals	94.7%	94.7%	15.5%	6.12×	1.06
Over 5.5 goals	88.7%	88.7%	6.5%	13.56×	1.13
Under 5.5 goals	11.3%	11.3%	93.5%	0.12×	8.88
Under 4.5 goals	5.3%	5.3%	84.5%	0.06×	18.86
Under 3.5 goals	2.0%	2.0%	68.5%	0.03×	48.97
Under 2.5 goals	0.6%	0.6%	46.7%	0.01×	162.17
Under 1.5 goals	0.2%	0.2%	23.6%	0.01×	511.00
Under 0.5 goals	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	99.8%	99.8%	69.3%	1.44×	1.00
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	99.4%	99.4%	40.2%	2.47×	1.01
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	97.9%	97.9%	18.4%	5.31×	1.02
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.4%	94.4%	7.2%	13.13×	1.06
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	87.6%	87.6%	2.5%	34.83×	1.14
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	12.4%	12.4%	97.5%	0.13×	8.07
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.6%	5.6%	92.8%	0.06×	17.74
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	2.1%	2.1%	81.6%	0.03×	47.37
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	0.6%	0.6%	59.8%	0.01×	159.86
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	0.2%	0.2%	30.7%	0.01×	508.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets to score in both halves	80.8%	80.8%	28.9%	2.80×	1.24
San Francisco Giants to score in both halves	76.9%	76.9%	21.9%	3.50×	1.30
San Francisco Giants not to score in both halves	23.1%	23.1%	78.1%	0.30×	4.32
New York Mets not to score in both halves	19.2%	19.2%	71.1%	0.27×	5.22

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	97.8%	97.8%	54.0%	1.81×	1.02
Only New York Mets scores	1.3%	1.3%	21.8%	0.06×	78.78
Only San Francisco Giants scores	0.9%	0.9%	16.5%	0.06×	106.20
Neither team scores	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	88.7%	88.7%	6.5%	13.56×	1.13
Exactly 5 goals	6.0%	6.0%	9.0%	0.67×	16.78
Exactly 4 goals	3.3%	3.3%	16.0%	0.20×	30.68
Exactly 3 goals	1.4%	1.4%	21.8%	0.07×	70.15
Exactly 2 goals	0.4%	0.4%	23.2%	0.02×	237.56
Exactly 1 goals	0.2%	0.2%	15.8%	0.01×	511.00
Exactly 0 goals	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	96.8%	96.8%	48.7%	1.99×	1.03
1 goal in 2nd half	2.7%	2.7%	32.0%	0.08×	37.25
No goals in 2nd half	0.5%	0.5%	19.3%	0.03×	193.88

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Francisco Giants not to win both halves	86.3%	86.3%	92.0%	0.94×	1.16
New York Mets not to win both halves	81.5%	81.5%	87.0%	0.94×	1.23
New York Mets to win both halves	18.5%	18.5%	13.0%	1.43×	5.41
San Francisco Giants to win both halves	13.7%	13.7%	8.0%	1.71×	7.30

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York Mets by 3+	21.9%	21.9%	9.7%	2.25×	4.56
San Francisco Giants by 3+	16.4%	16.4%	5.9%	2.78×	6.12
Draw	13.8%	13.8%	26.3%	0.52×	7.26
New York Mets by 1	13.5%	13.5%	20.7%	0.65×	7.39
San Francisco Giants by 1	12.6%	12.6%	16.7%	0.76×	7.93
New York Mets by 2	11.7%	11.7%	12.2%	0.96×	8.58
San Francisco Giants by 2	10.1%	10.1%	8.7%	1.17×	9.87

New York Mets v San Francisco Giants — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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