Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 4 September 2026 · MLB · 2026

The model serving this sport has not been backtested.

Nothing here has been checked against what actually happened, so treat every number as untested until you have run python -m pipeline.backtest --sport baseball.

MLB results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 04:49

Philadelphia Phillies

18:40

Atlanta Braves

AI prediction

mlb-dc No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Philadelphia Phillies win

48.4%

Draw

13.9%

Atlanta Braves win

37.7%

481438

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
mlb-dc	481438	4.34–3.95	4-3 4%	99%	97%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies to win	48.2%	48.2%	42.6%	1.13×	2.07
Atlanta Braves to win	37.6%	37.6%	31.2%	1.21×	2.66
Draw	14.2%	14.2%	26.3%	0.54×	7.05

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies (1UP)	76.0%	76.0%	58.7%	1.29×	1.32
Atlanta Braves (1UP)	69.2%	69.2%	49.3%	1.40×	1.45

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies (2UP)	52.6%	52.6%	44.5%	1.18×	1.90
Atlanta Braves (2UP)	43.5%	43.5%	33.4%	1.30×	2.30

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Braves (+2.5)	78.0%	78.0%	90.3%	0.86×	1.28
Atlanta Braves (+1.5)	65.9%	65.9%	78.1%	0.84×	1.52
Philadelphia Phillies (+0.5)	62.4%	62.4%	68.8%	0.91×	1.60
Atlanta Braves (+0.5)	51.8%	51.8%	57.4%	0.90×	1.93
Philadelphia Phillies (-0.5)	48.2%	48.2%	42.6%	1.13×	2.07
Atlanta Braves (-0.5)	37.6%	37.6%	31.2%	1.21×	2.66
Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)	34.1%	34.1%	21.9%	1.56×	2.93
Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)	22.0%	22.0%	9.7%	2.26×	4.55

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies (away no bet)	77.3%	77.3%	61.8%	1.25×	1.29
Draw (away no bet)	22.7%	22.7%	38.2%	0.60×	4.40

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves over 1.5 goals	81.7%	81.7%	16.9%	4.84×	1.22
Not both halves over 1.5	18.3%	18.3%	83.1%	0.22×	5.46

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	99.2%	99.2%	64.8%	1.53×	1.01
Both halves under 1.5 goals	0.8%	0.8%	35.2%	0.02×	128.35

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	96.7%	96.7%	57.4%	1.68×	1.03
Philadelphia Phillies to score 2+ in a row	78.5%	78.5%	36.2%	2.17×	1.27
Atlanta Braves to score 2+ in a row	72.3%	72.3%	27.9%	2.59×	1.38
Either team to score 3+ in a row	69.2%	69.2%	22.4%	3.09×	1.45
Philadelphia Phillies to score 3+ in a row	44.5%	44.5%	13.9%	3.19×	2.25
Atlanta Braves to score 3+ in a row	36.4%	36.4%	8.9%	4.11×	2.75

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	63.0%	63.0%	3.8%	16.62×	1.59
4-3	3.9%	3.9%	0.6%	6.93×	25.49
4-4	3.9%	3.9%	0.2%	19.66×	25.84
3-3	3.6%	3.6%	1.2%	3.00×	27.68
3-4	3.6%	3.6%	0.5%	7.24×	28.06
4-2	3.0%	3.0%	1.0%	2.96×	33.53
3-2	2.7%	2.7%	2.9%	0.95×	36.41
2-3	2.5%	2.5%	2.2%	1.13×	40.08
2-4	2.5%	2.5%	0.5%	4.76×	40.63
2-2	1.9%	1.9%	5.8%	0.33×	52.72
4-1	1.5%	1.5%	1.8%	0.84×	66.15
3-1	1.4%	1.4%	4.7%	0.30×	71.84
1-3	1.1%	1.1%	2.8%	0.41×	87.06
1-4	1.1%	1.1%	1.0%	1.10×	88.25
2-1	1.0%	1.0%	8.5%	0.11×	104.02
1-2	0.9%	0.9%	7.0%	0.13×	114.51
4-0	0.4%	0.4%	1.7%	0.22×	261.02
1-1	0.4%	0.4%	11.4%	0.03×	282.41
3-0	0.4%	0.4%	3.9%	0.09×	283.47
0-3	0.3%	0.3%	2.5%	0.10×	378.18
0-4	0.3%	0.3%	1.1%	0.24×	383.36
2-0	0.2%	0.2%	6.5%	0.04×	410.46
0-2	0.2%	0.2%	5.3%	0.04×	497.44
1-0	0.2%	0.2%	8.8%	0.02×	498.28
0-1	0.2%	0.2%	7.0%	0.03×	525.17
0-0	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies leading at HT (DNB)	57.6%	57.6%	56.8%	1.01×	1.74
Atlanta Braves leading at HT (DNB)	42.4%	42.4%	43.2%	0.98×	2.36

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies or Atlanta Braves (12)	85.8%	85.8%	73.7%	1.16×	1.17
Philadelphia Phillies or draw (1X)	62.4%	62.4%	68.8%	0.91×	1.60
Atlanta Braves or draw (X2)	51.8%	51.8%	57.4%	0.90×	1.93

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies or draw (1UP)	76.0%	76.0%	74.6%	1.02×	1.32
Atlanta Braves or draw (1UP)	69.2%	69.2%	64.5%	1.07×	1.45

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies (DNB)	56.2%	56.2%	57.7%	0.97×	1.78
Atlanta Braves (DNB)	43.8%	43.8%	42.3%	1.04×	2.28

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies to score first	52.4%	52.4%	50.2%	1.04×	1.91
Atlanta Braves to score first	47.6%	47.6%	42.0%	1.13×	2.10
No goal scored	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	96.6%	96.6%	54.0%	1.79×	1.04
Not both teams to score	3.4%	3.4%	46.0%	0.07×	29.41

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score 2+	83.9%	83.9%	15.5%	5.40×	1.19
Not both teams to score 2+	16.1%	16.1%	84.5%	0.19×	6.21

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score in 2nd half	82.7%	82.7%	29.1%	2.85×	1.21
Not both to score in 2nd half	17.3%	17.3%	70.9%	0.24×	5.79

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score by HT	67.0%	67.0%	18.0%	3.72×	1.49
Not both to score by HT	33.0%	33.0%	82.0%	0.40×	3.03

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
7+ goals	71.2%	71.2%	2.4%	29.53×	1.40
4-6 goals	25.1%	25.1%	29.1%	0.86×	3.98
2-3 goals	3.3%	3.3%	45.0%	0.07×	30.76
0-1 goals	0.4%	0.4%	23.6%	0.02×	255.69

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Braves to score 3+	75.0%	75.0%	13.9%	5.40×	1.33
Atlanta Braves to score exactly 2	15.2%	15.2%	22.3%	0.68×	6.57
Atlanta Braves to score exactly 1	7.7%	7.7%	34.3%	0.23×	12.96
Atlanta Braves to score exactly 0	2.0%	2.0%	29.6%	0.07×	49.55

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies to score 3+	80.4%	80.4%	20.8%	3.86×	1.24
Philadelphia Phillies to score exactly 2	12.5%	12.5%	23.6%	0.53×	8.03
Philadelphia Phillies to score exactly 1	5.7%	5.7%	31.4%	0.18×	17.45
Philadelphia Phillies to score exactly 0	1.4%	1.4%	24.2%	0.06×	72.34

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies leading at HT	44.7%	44.7%	33.2%	1.35×	2.24
Atlanta Braves leading at HT	32.9%	32.9%	25.3%	1.30×	3.04
Draw at HT	22.4%	22.4%	41.5%	0.54×	4.47

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies -1: 2	51.8%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Philadelphia Phillies -1: 1	34.1%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Philadelphia Phillies -1: X	14.1%	14.1%	—	—	7.07

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Braves (0:1)	51.8%	51.8%	57.4%	0.90×	1.93
Philadelphia Phillies (0:1)	34.1%	34.1%	21.9%	1.56×	2.93
Draw (0:1)	14.1%	14.1%	20.7%	0.68×	7.07

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Braves (0:2)	65.9%	65.9%	78.1%	0.84×	1.52
Philadelphia Phillies (0:2)	22.0%	22.0%	9.7%	2.26×	4.55
Draw (0:2)	12.1%	12.1%	12.2%	1.00×	8.25

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Braves (0:3)	78.0%	78.0%	90.3%	0.86×	1.28
Philadelphia Phillies (0:3)	12.8%	12.8%	3.7%	3.42×	7.82
Draw (0:3)	9.2%	9.2%	6.0%	1.52×	10.89

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Braves (0:4)	87.2%	87.2%	96.3%	0.91×	1.15
Philadelphia Phillies (0:4)	6.7%	6.7%	1.2%	5.77×	14.99
Draw (0:4)	6.1%	6.1%	2.6%	2.35×	16.33

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies (1:0)	62.4%	62.4%	68.8%	0.91×	1.60
Atlanta Braves (1:0)	24.7%	24.7%	14.5%	1.70×	4.04
Draw (1:0)	12.8%	12.8%	16.7%	0.77×	7.79

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies (2:0)	75.3%	75.3%	85.5%	0.88×	1.33
Atlanta Braves (2:0)	14.8%	14.8%	5.9%	2.51×	6.77
Draw (2:0)	10.0%	10.0%	8.7%	1.15×	10.02

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	61.5%	61.5%	47.5%	1.29×	1.63
1st half highest scoring	25.6%	25.6%	25.7%	1.00×	3.90
Halves equal	12.9%	12.9%	26.7%	0.48×	7.78

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Braves (home no bet)	72.6%	72.6%	54.3%	1.34×	1.38
Draw (home no bet)	27.4%	27.4%	45.7%	0.60×	3.65

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other HT score	43.5%	43.5%	4.7%	9.36×	2.30
HT 1-1	9.4%	9.4%	10.0%	0.94×	10.62
HT 2-1	8.8%	8.8%	3.2%	2.80×	11.36
HT 1-2	7.4%	7.4%	2.7%	2.80×	13.44
HT 2-2	7.0%	7.0%	0.9%	8.07×	14.39
HT 1-0	6.0%	6.0%	20.3%	0.29×	16.70
HT 2-0	5.6%	5.6%	7.0%	0.80×	17.92
HT 0-1	5.1%	5.1%	16.1%	0.32×	19.75
HT 0-2	4.0%	4.0%	4.7%	0.84×	25.10
HT 0-0	3.2%	3.2%	30.7%	0.11×	30.81

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies at HT / Philadelphia Phillies at FT	33.0%	33.0%	25.3%	1.30×	3.03
Atlanta Braves at HT / Atlanta Braves at FT	22.7%	22.7%	17.0%	1.33×	4.41
Draw at HT / Philadelphia Phillies at FT	9.5%	9.5%	14.4%	0.66×	10.54
Draw at HT / Atlanta Braves at FT	8.7%	8.7%	11.4%	0.76×	11.52
Philadelphia Phillies at HT / Atlanta Braves at FT	6.2%	6.2%	2.9%	2.18×	16.07
Atlanta Braves at HT / Philadelphia Phillies at FT	5.7%	5.7%	2.9%	1.98×	17.53
Philadelphia Phillies at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	5.4%	5.1%	1.07×	18.36
Atlanta Braves at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	4.5%	5.5%	0.83×	22.02
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	4.2%	4.2%	15.8%	0.27×	23.84

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies to score last	52.3%	52.3%	50.3%	1.04×	1.91
Atlanta Braves to score last	47.7%	47.7%	41.9%	1.14×	2.10
No goal scored	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	100.0%	100.0%	92.2%	1.08×	1.00
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	88.9%	88.9%	47.3%	1.88×	1.13
Philadelphia Phillies to lead by 1 at any time	76.0%	76.0%	58.7%	1.29×	1.32
Atlanta Braves to lead by 1 at any time	69.2%	69.2%	49.3%	1.40×	1.45
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	57.6%	57.6%	19.0%	3.03×	1.74
Philadelphia Phillies to lead by 2 at any time	52.6%	52.6%	27.8%	1.90×	1.90
Atlanta Braves to lead by 2 at any time	43.5%	43.5%	19.9%	2.19×	2.30
Philadelphia Phillies to lead by 3 at any time	33.1%	33.1%	11.9%	2.79×	3.02
Atlanta Braves to lead by 3 at any time	24.8%	24.8%	7.2%	3.46×	4.03

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
7+ goals	71.2%	71.2%	2.4%	29.53×	1.40
2-6 goals	28.4%	28.4%	74.0%	0.38×	3.52
3-6 goals	27.6%	27.6%	50.9%	0.54×	3.62
4-6 goals	25.1%	25.1%	29.1%	0.86×	3.98
5-6 goals	20.1%	20.1%	13.1%	1.53×	4.98
1-5 goals	17.1%	17.1%	85.7%	0.20×	5.83
2-5 goals	16.8%	16.8%	69.9%	0.24×	5.97
3-5 goals	16.0%	16.0%	46.8%	0.34×	6.27
4-5 goals	13.5%	13.5%	25.0%	0.54×	7.40
1-4 goals	8.7%	8.7%	76.8%	0.11×	11.46
2-4 goals	8.3%	8.3%	61.0%	0.14×	12.00
3-4 goals	7.5%	7.5%	37.8%	0.20×	13.27
1-3 goals	3.6%	3.6%	60.8%	0.06×	27.46
2-3 goals	3.3%	3.3%	45.0%	0.07×	30.76
1-2 goals	1.2%	1.2%	39.0%	0.03×	84.04

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies never behind	30.8%	30.8%	50.7%	0.61×	3.24
Atlanta Braves never behind	24.0%	24.0%	41.3%	0.58×	4.17

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.1%	50.1%	48.5%	1.04×	1.99
Even number of goals	49.9%	49.9%	51.6%	0.97×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	50.1%	50.1%	54.6%	0.92×	2.00
Odd goals in 1st half	49.9%	49.9%	45.4%	1.10×	2.00

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd goals in 2nd half	50.0%	50.0%	47.9%	1.04×	2.00
Even goals in 2nd half	50.0%	50.0%	52.1%	0.96×	2.00

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	100.0%	100.0%	92.2%	1.08×	1.00
Over 1.5 goals	99.6%	99.6%	76.4%	1.30×	1.00
Over 2.5 goals	98.8%	98.8%	53.3%	1.85×	1.01
Over 3.5 goals	96.4%	96.4%	31.5%	3.06×	1.04
Over 4.5 goals	91.3%	91.3%	15.5%	5.90×	1.10
Over 5.5 goals	82.9%	82.9%	6.5%	12.66×	1.21
Under 5.5 goals	17.1%	17.1%	93.5%	0.18×	5.83
Under 4.5 goals	8.7%	8.7%	84.5%	0.10×	11.46
Under 3.5 goals	3.6%	3.6%	68.5%	0.05×	27.46
Under 2.5 goals	1.2%	1.2%	46.7%	0.03×	84.04
Under 1.5 goals	0.4%	0.4%	23.6%	0.02×	255.69
Under 0.5 goals	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	99.6%	99.6%	69.3%	1.44×	1.00
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	98.8%	98.8%	40.2%	2.45×	1.01
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	96.2%	96.2%	18.4%	5.22×	1.04
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.5%	90.5%	7.2%	12.59×	1.11
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	80.6%	80.6%	2.5%	32.04×	1.24
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	19.4%	19.4%	97.5%	0.20×	5.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.5%	9.5%	92.8%	0.10×	10.50
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	3.8%	3.8%	81.6%	0.05×	26.06
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	1.2%	1.2%	59.8%	0.02×	81.98
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	0.4%	0.4%	30.7%	0.01×	253.64

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies to score in both halves	77.3%	77.3%	28.9%	2.67×	1.29
Atlanta Braves to score in both halves	71.8%	71.8%	21.9%	3.27×	1.39
Atlanta Braves not to score in both halves	28.2%	28.2%	78.1%	0.36×	3.54
Philadelphia Phillies not to score in both halves	22.7%	22.7%	71.1%	0.32×	4.40

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	96.6%	96.6%	54.0%	1.79×	1.04
Only Philadelphia Phillies scores	2.0%	2.0%	21.8%	0.09×	49.55
Only Atlanta Braves scores	1.4%	1.4%	16.5%	0.08×	72.34
Neither team scores	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	82.9%	82.9%	6.5%	12.66×	1.21
Exactly 5 goals	8.4%	8.4%	9.0%	0.94×	11.87
Exactly 4 goals	5.1%	5.1%	16.0%	0.32×	19.68
Exactly 3 goals	2.5%	2.5%	21.8%	0.11×	40.79
Exactly 2 goals	0.8%	0.8%	23.2%	0.03×	125.20
Exactly 1 goals	0.4%	0.4%	15.8%	0.02×	255.69
Exactly 0 goals	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.00×	10,000.00

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	95.2%	95.2%	48.7%	1.95×	1.05
1 goal in 2nd half	4.0%	4.0%	32.0%	0.12×	25.20
No goals in 2nd half	0.8%	0.8%	19.3%	0.04×	119.15

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Braves not to win both halves	87.3%	87.3%	92.0%	0.95×	1.15
Philadelphia Phillies not to win both halves	81.1%	81.1%	87.0%	0.93×	1.23
Philadelphia Phillies to win both halves	18.9%	18.9%	13.0%	1.46×	5.29
Atlanta Braves to win both halves	12.7%	12.7%	8.0%	1.59×	7.87

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Phillies by 3+	22.0%	22.0%	9.7%	2.26×	4.55
Atlanta Braves by 3+	14.8%	14.8%	5.9%	2.51×	6.77
Draw	14.2%	14.2%	26.3%	0.54×	7.05
Philadelphia Phillies by 1	14.1%	14.1%	20.7%	0.68×	7.07
Atlanta Braves by 1	12.8%	12.8%	16.7%	0.77×	7.79
Philadelphia Phillies by 2	12.1%	12.1%	12.2%	1.00×	8.25
Atlanta Braves by 2	10.0%	10.0%	8.7%	1.15×	10.02

Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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