AC Milan v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 14 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 5
On target
3 – 0
Shots in box
10 – 2
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.16 – -0.20
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.AC Milan win
45.9%
Draw
26.2%
Bologna win
27.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
AC Milan are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLWLWWD last 10
scored 11
from 14.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.0 xG
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLDWWDLLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.7 xG
conceded 13
from 10.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.69–1.28 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.61–1.21 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
AC Milan 1.16 xGBologna 0.20 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
AC Milan attacking right
Bologna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Youssouf Fofana |
| 7' |
AC Milan |
Luka Modric | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Strahinja Pavlovic |
| 10' |
AC Milan |
Santiago Giménez | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
 Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Remo Freuler |
| 20' |
Bologna |
Charalampos Lykogiannis | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
AC Milan |
Estupiñán | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 24' |
Bologna |
Giovanni Fabbian | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nadir Zortea |
| 44' |
AC Milan |
Ruben Loftus-Cheek | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luka Modric |
| 44' |
AC Milan |
Santiago Giménez | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Ruben Loftus-Cheek |
| 58' |
AC Milan |
Santiago Giménez | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Youssouf Fofana |
| 60' |
AC Milan |
Luka Modric | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 67' |
AC Milan |
Samuele Ricci | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Christian Pulisic |
| 69' |
AC Milan |
Santiago Giménez | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fikayo Tomori |
| 75' |
AC Milan |
Samuele Ricci | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 76' |
AC Milan |
Koni de Winter | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Luka Modric |
| 77' |
Bologna |
Remo Freuler | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
AC Milan |
Alexis Saelemaekers | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Pulisic |
| 82' |
AC Milan |
Santiago Giménez | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Christian Pulisic |
| 83' |
Bologna |
Nadir Zortea | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Modric MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.59 |
| Estupiñán DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.25 | 0.59 |
| Adrien Rabiot AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Matteo Gabbia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Fikayo Tomori DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| Santiago Giménez FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Youssouf Fofana MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Strahinja Pavlovic DC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Koni de Winter Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Pietro Terracciano Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuele Ricci Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Christian Pulisic Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Christopher Nkunku Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remo Freuler MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Nadir Zortea DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Lukasz Skorupski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Ferguson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Torbjørn Heggem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Castro FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Riccardo Orsolini FWR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi FWL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Giovanni Fabbian MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Charalampos Lykogiannis DL | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Juan Miranda Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Bernardeschi Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jens Odgaard Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonathan Rowe Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thijs Dallinga Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |