AC Milan v Como — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 18 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 10
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 7
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.72
Goals − xG
-0.17 – -0.65
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.AC Milan win
41.7%
Draw
26.8%
Como win
31.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
AC Milan are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLWLWWD last 10
scored 11
from 14.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.0 xG
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.35–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.74–1.30 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 60% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
AC Milan 1.17 xGComo 1.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
AC Milan attacking right
Como attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29' |
 AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ardon Jashari |
| 31' |
 Como |
Nico Paz | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 33' |
AC Milan |
Fikayo Tomori | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Zachary Athekame |
| 38' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergi Roberto |
| 38' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 38' |
Como |
Sergi Roberto | 0.53 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marc-Oliver Kempf |
| 63' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ardon Jashari |
| 69' |
AC Milan |
Youssouf Fofana | 0.56 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 73' |
AC Milan |
Matteo Gabbia | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Davide Bartesaghi |
| 75' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.27 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 77' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 79' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Valle |
| 83' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ardon Jashari |
| 86' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 92' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marc-Oliver Kempf |
| 93' |
Como |
Álex Valle | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Máximo Perrone |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fikayo Tomori DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Koni de Winter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luka Modric MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davide Bartesaghi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Ardon Jashari MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rafael Leão FW | 84 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Christopher Nkunku FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Samuele Ricci MC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Zachary Athekame DMR | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Strahinja Pavlovic DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Gabbia Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| Youssouf Fofana Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Niclas Füllkrug Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Christian Pulisic Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Martin Baturina AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.22 | 0.62 |
| Máximo Perrone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Mergim Vojvoda DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.27 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diego Carlos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Sergi Roberto MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.13 | 0.34 |
| Maxence Caqueret AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Nico Paz FW | 73 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt DMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tasos Douvikas Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Álex Valle Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Jesús Rodriguez Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Lucas Da Cunha Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ivan Smolcic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |