AC Milan v Lazio — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 November 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 9
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 5
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.42
Goals − xG
-0.48 – -0.90
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.AC Milan win
49.5%
Draw
29.3%
Lazio win
21.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
AC Milan are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLWLWWD last 10
scored 11
from 14.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.0 xG
Lazio have scored 12 from 12.7 expected and conceded 12 from 11.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWDWLLWWW last 10
scored 12
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 11.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.55–0.95 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.70–1.29 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 59% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
AC Milan 1.48 xGLazio 0.90 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
AC Milan attacking right
Lazio attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Lazio |
Mario Gila | 0.42 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Toma Basic |
| 3' |
 AC Milan |
Alexis Saelemaekers | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rafael Leão |
| 5' |
AC Milan |
Matteo Gabbia | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Davide Bartesaghi |
| 9' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christopher Nkunku |
| 31' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.21 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Toma Basic |
| 42' |
AC Milan |
Fikayo Tomori | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christopher Nkunku |
| 46' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 50' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Christopher Nkunku |
| 50' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Fikayo Tomori |
| 52' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luka Modric |
| 54' |
AC Milan |
Youssouf Fofana | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Boulaye Dia |
| 62' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Davide Bartesaghi |
| 63' |
AC Milan |
Strahinja Pavlovic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Youssouf Fofana |
| 66' |
AC Milan |
Ruben Loftus-Cheek | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Davide Bartesaghi |
| 70' |
Lazio |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luca Pellegrini |
| 74' |
AC Milan |
Alexis Saelemaekers | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
AC Milan |
Davide Bartesaghi | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Lazio |
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Davide Bartesaghi |
| 83' |
Lazio |
Toma Basic | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 84' |
AC Milan |
Strahinja Pavlovic | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 85' |
Lazio |
Adam Marusic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fisayo Dele-Bashiru |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Leão FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.12 | 1.06 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 1.09 |
| Adrien Rabiot MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Strahinja Pavlovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Fikayo Tomori DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.61 | 1.03 |
| Davide Bartesaghi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.05 | 0.27 | 1.07 |
| Matteo Gabbia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Luka Modric MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.95 |
| Christopher Nkunku FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.91 |
| Youssouf Fofana MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.99 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Samuele Ricci Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Gila DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Mattia Zaccagni FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Adam Marusic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Matteo Guendouzi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Ivan Provedel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Toma Basic MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.62 | 0.33 |
| Luca Pellegrini DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.35 |
| Gustav Isaksen FWR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.35 |
| Matías Vecino MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Boulaye Dia FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Valentín Castellanos Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Pedro Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Nuno Tavares Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tijjani Noslin Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |