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AC Milan v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 27 September 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

AC Milan
3–0
2.43 – 0.46 xG
Lecce
Shots
15 – 16
On target
6 – 7
Shots in box
11 – 7
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.25
Goals − xG
+0.47 – -0.46
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.42.12.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Álvaro Morata 37' — goalTheo Hernández 40' — goalChristian Pulisic 42' — goal
AC Milan 2.53 xGLecce 0.46 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Patrick Dorgu 3' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 8' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Nikola Krstovic 10' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 11' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Youssouf Fofana 14' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Antonino Gallo 22' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Patrick Dorgu 32' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Álvaro Morata 37' — Goal (0.14 xG, Set Piece)Theo Hernández 40' — Goal (0.25 xG, Open Play)Christian Pulisic 42' — Goal (0.60 xG, Open Play)Tammy Abraham 42' — Shot On Post (0.41 xG, Open Play)Tammy Abraham 42' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Rafael Leão 44' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Theo Hernández 44' — Missed Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Kialonda Gaspar 49' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Tijjani Reijnders 56' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Rafael Leão 58' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Ruben Loftus-Cheek 60' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Tammy Abraham 60' — Missed Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Ante Rebic 61' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Kialonda Gaspar 66' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Ylber Ramadani 66' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Lameck Banda 73' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ruben Loftus-Cheek 76' — Saved Shot (0.21 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 80' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Samuel Chukwueze 83' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Hamza Rafia 87' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Lameck Banda 88' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Rafael Leão 89' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 91' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Patrick Dorgu 93' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)
AC Milan attacking right Lecce attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Nikola Krstovic
8' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.02 From Corner — Blocked Shot Ante Rebic
10' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ante Rebic
11' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Ante Rebic
14' AC Milan Youssouf Fofana 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Rafael Leão
22' Lecce Antonino Gallo 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Patrick Dorgu
32' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.07 From Corner — Saved Shot Ante Rebic
37' AC Milan Álvaro Morata 0.14 Set Piece — Goal Theo Hernández
40' AC Milan Theo Hernández 0.25 Open Play Left Foot Goal Rafael Leão
42' AC Milan Christian Pulisic 0.60 Open Play Left Foot Goal —
42' AC Milan Tammy Abraham 0.41 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Álvaro Morata
42' AC Milan Tammy Abraham 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Emerson
44' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Theo Hernández
44' AC Milan Theo Hernández 0.32 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
49' Lecce Kialonda Gaspar 0.02 From Corner — Missed Shot Ante Rebic
56' AC Milan Tijjani Reijnders 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Theo Hernández
58' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ruben Loftus-Cheek
60' AC Milan Ruben Loftus-Cheek 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Rafael Leão
60' AC Milan Tammy Abraham 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ruben Loftus-Cheek
61' Lecce Ante Rebic 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Nikola Krstovic
66' Lecce Kialonda Gaspar 0.05 From Corner — Missed Shot Ante Rebic
66' Lecce Ylber Ramadani 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Lameck Banda
73' Lecce Lameck Banda 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Kialonda Gaspar
76' AC Milan Ruben Loftus-Cheek 0.21 Open Play — Saved Shot Samuel Chukwueze
80' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.02 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Hamza Rafia
83' AC Milan Samuel Chukwueze 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Tijjani Reijnders
87' Lecce Hamza Rafia 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Antonino Gallo
88' Lecce Lameck Banda 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ylber Ramadani
89' AC Milan Rafael Leão 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Tijjani Reijnders
91' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Patrick Dorgu
93' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Kialonda Gaspar

Players

AC Milan

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Rafael Leão AML 90 0 1 3 3 0.16 0.35 0.61
Tijjani Reijnders DMC 90 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.09 0.68
Matteo Gabbia DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.56
Emerson DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.58
Fikayo Tomori DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.66
Mike Maignan GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.31
Tammy Abraham FW 78 0 0 3 0 0.66 0.00 0.66
Theo Hernández DL 77 1 1 2 3 0.56 0.24 0.77
Christian Pulisic AMR 65 1 0 1 0 0.60 0.00 0.69
Youssouf Fofana DMC 65 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.13
Álvaro Morata AMC 57 1 0 1 1 0.14 0.41 0.41
Ruben Loftus-Cheek Sub 33 0 0 2 2 0.31 0.21 0.62
Samuel Chukwueze Sub 25 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.21 0.28
Yunus Musah Sub 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.23
Luka Jovic Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Davide Bartesaghi Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.21

Lecce

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nikola Krstovic FW 90 0 0 5 2 0.13 0.07 0.15
Patrick Dorgu DR 90 0 0 3 2 0.10 0.03 0.18
Kialonda Gaspar DC 90 0 0 2 2 0.07 0.04 0.10
Antonino Gallo DL 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.01 0.19
Ylber Ramadani MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.04 0.16
Wladimiro Falcone GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Federico Baschirotto DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Lassana Coulibaly MC 85 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Ante Rebic FWL 75 0 0 1 6 0.06 0.23 0.09
Balthazar Pierret MC 75 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Tete Morente FWR 61 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Lameck Banda Sub 29 0 0 2 1 0.07 0.01 0.07
Hamza Rafia Sub 15 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.02 0.06
Santiago Pierotti Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Remi Oudin Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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