Al Hilal v NEOM — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 7 September 2026 · KSA-Pro League · 2627

KSA-Pro League results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Al Hilal

14:00

NEOM

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 10h before kick-off

Al Hilal win

75.9%

model 75.1%

Draw

17.8%

model 17.4%

NEOM win

6.3%

model 7.5%

76186

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (50 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 13.7%
3-0 10.8%
1-0 10.6%
2-1 8.9%
1-1 8.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	58.4%	Under 2.5	41.6%
BTTS yes	44.3%	BTTS no	55.7%
Al Hilal 1+	90.8%	Al Hilal 2+	68.7%
NEOM 1+	47.8%	NEOM 2+	13.9%

Expected goals 2.38 – 0.65. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

85/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Al Hilal (-1.5)

Asian handicap · usually 22%

51.9% fair odds 1.93

strong signal · 897 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

83.0% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 4274 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Al Hilal carry the stronger rating, 1857 Elo against 1517.
Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Al Hilal have an estimated 75.9% win probability, against 17.8% for the draw and 6.3% for NEOM. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.38 for Al Hilal and 0.65 for NEOM.

Why Al Hilal

Al Hilal carry the stronger rating, 1857 Elo against 1517. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.8%. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why NEOM can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Al Hilal, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for NEOM, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Al Hilal: 55% possession, 17.2 shots a match, 9.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. NEOM: 43% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 7.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Al Hilal are the model's most likely outcome at 75.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 13.7%. Confidence 85/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	75177	2.38–0.65	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	73188	2.33–0.69	2-0 13%	58%	46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal to win	73.3%	73.8%	43.5%	1.70×	1.36
Draw	18.3%	19.3%	21.4%	0.90×	5.17
NEOM to win	8.4%	8.2%	35.2%	0.23×	12.13

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal & not both score	44.5%	40.2%	22.1%	1.82×	2.49
Al Hilal & both teams score	28.9%	25.2%	21.6%	1.17×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	12.5%	13.3%	16.5%	0.80×	7.54
Draw & not both score	5.8%	8.4%	5.1%	1.66×	11.94
NEOM & both teams score	4.4%	4.9%	18.5%	0.26×	20.55
NEOM & not both score	4.0%	4.9%	16.8%	0.29×	20.57

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal & over 1.5	62.8%	54.7%	34.5%	1.59×	1.83
Al Hilal & over 2.5	49.5%	45.2%	27.6%	1.64×	2.21
Al Hilal & under 3.5	43.3%	40.3%	27.4%	1.47×	2.48
Al Hilal & over 3.5	30.1%	30.9%	16.2%	1.90×	3.24
Al Hilal & under 2.5	23.8%	21.7%	16.1%	1.35×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	14.5%	12.9%	15.8%	0.82×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	14.5%	12.9%	15.8%	0.82×	7.77
Draw & over 1.5	12.5%	12.9%	16.5%	0.78×	7.77
Al Hilal & under 1.5	10.5%	12.9%	9.2%	1.40×	7.77
NEOM & over 1.5	5.9%	7.9%	28.5%	0.28×	12.70
NEOM & under 3.5	6.6%	7.9%	21.6%	0.36×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	5.8%	7.9%	5.1%	1.56×	12.70
NEOM & over 2.5	4.7%	4.8%	23.3%	0.21×	20.93
Draw & over 2.5	3.8%	4.8%	5.8%	0.82×	20.94
Draw & over 3.5	3.8%	4.8%	5.8%	0.82×	20.94
NEOM & under 2.5	3.6%	4.8%	12.1%	0.39×	20.94
NEOM & under 1.5	2.5%	4.8%	6.9%	0.69×	20.94
NEOM & over 3.5	1.8%	4.8%	13.8%	0.35×	20.95

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal (1UP)	81.8%	87.0%	—	—	1.15
NEOM (1UP)	23.9%	23.3%	—	—	4.29

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal (2UP)	73.3%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
NEOM (2UP)	8.4%	8.8%	—	—	11.33

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal to win 2nd half	59.7%	60.3%	—	—	1.66
2nd half drawn	29.2%	26.3%	—	—	3.80
NEOM to win 2nd half	11.2%	12.1%	—	—	8.29

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal (+0.5)	91.6%	92.1%	64.8%	1.42×	1.09
Al Hilal (-0.5)	73.3%	73.7%	43.5%	1.69×	1.36
NEOM (+2.5)	71.1%	73.7%	90.4%	0.82×	1.36
Al Hilal (-1.5)	50.9%	52.3%	22.4%	2.34×	1.91
NEOM (+1.5)	49.1%	47.7%	77.6%	0.61×	2.10
Al Hilal (-2.5)	28.9%	26.3%	9.6%	2.73×	3.80
NEOM (+0.5)	26.7%	26.3%	56.5%	0.47×	3.80
NEOM (-0.5)	8.4%	7.9%	35.2%	0.22×	12.62

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM to concede	90.3%	91.7%	78.3%	1.17×	1.09
NEOM clean sheet	9.7%	8.3%	21.7%	0.38×	12.03

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM to concede in 1st half	63.3%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
NEOM clean sheet in 1st half	36.7%	35.0%	—	—	2.85

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM under 6.5 corners	93.1%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
NEOM under 5.5 corners	86.9%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
NEOM under 4.5 corners	76.5%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
NEOM under 3.5 corners	61.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
NEOM over 2.5 corners	58.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
NEOM under 2.5 corners	41.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
NEOM over 3.5 corners	38.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
NEOM over 4.5 corners	23.5%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
NEOM over 5.5 corners	13.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.75
NEOM over 6.5 corners	6.9%	9.9%	—	—	10.06

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM under 3.5 goals	99.5%	97.6%	93.0%	1.05×	1.03
NEOM under 2.5 goals	96.7%	97.5%	82.7%	1.18×	1.03
NEOM under 1.5 goals	84.8%	81.4%	60.9%	1.34×	1.23
NEOM under 0.5 goals	50.3%	53.6%	27.0%	1.99×	1.86
NEOM over 0.5 goals	49.7%	46.4%	73.0%	0.63×	2.16
NEOM over 1.5 goals	15.2%	18.6%	39.1%	0.48×	5.39
NEOM over 2.5 goals	3.3%	2.5%	17.3%	0.14×	40.71
NEOM over 3.5 goals	0.5%	2.4%	7.0%	0.35×	40.85

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM under 1.5 in 1st half	96.8%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
NEOM under 0.5 in 1st half	75.9%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
NEOM over 0.5 in 1st half	24.1%	24.4%	—	—	4.09
NEOM over 1.5 in 1st half	3.2%	4.2%	—	—	23.79

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal (away no bet)	80.1%	82.5%	67.0%	1.23×	1.21
Draw (away no bet)	19.9%	17.5%	33.0%	0.53×	5.73

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM even goals	62.6%	59.1%	52.4%	1.13×	1.69
NEOM odd goals	37.4%	40.9%	47.6%	0.86×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.1%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.9%	17.1%	—	—	5.83

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	69.9%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	67.1%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Al Hilal to score 2+ in a row	62.0%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row	34.7%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
Al Hilal to score 3+ in a row	33.5%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
NEOM to score 2+ in a row	9.1%	5.7%	—	—	17.55
NEOM to score 3+ in a row	1.3%	2.5%	—	—	39.80

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal corners (+3.5)	95.2%	95.7%	—	—	1.04
Al Hilal corners (+2.5)	91.4%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Al Hilal corners (+1.5)	85.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
NEOM corners (+3.5)	67.9%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
NEOM corners (+2.5)	56.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Al Hilal corners (-1.5)	55.0%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
NEOM corners (+1.5)	45.0%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Al Hilal corners (-2.5)	43.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Al Hilal corners (-3.5)	32.1%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
NEOM corners (-1.5)	14.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
NEOM corners (-2.5)	8.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
NEOM corners (-3.5)	4.8%	4.3%	—	—	23.52

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	54.5%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	27.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	18.3%	22.7%	—	—	4.41

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	87.5%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	81.7%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	74.3%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	65.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	57.1%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	54.5%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	45.5%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	42.9%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	34.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 10.5 corners	25.7%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 11.5 corners	18.3%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Over 12.5 corners	12.5%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	13.3%	11.5%	7.0%	1.63×	8.73
1-0	10.5%	11.5%	9.2%	1.25×	8.73
3-0	10.3%	11.5%	3.2%	3.56×	8.73
1-1	8.7%	7.4%	10.9%	0.68×	13.48
2-1	9.1%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.48
Any other score	8.7%	7.4%	5.7%	1.31×	13.48
3-1	7.1%	7.4%	5.1%	1.47×	13.48
0-0	5.8%	7.4%	5.1%	1.47×	13.48
4-0	6.0%	7.4%	2.1%	3.46×	13.48
0-1	2.5%	1.7%	6.9%	0.25×	58.48
0-2	1.2%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.48
0-3	0.3%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.49
0-4	0.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.49
1-2	2.7%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.47
1-3	0.6%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.49
1-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.49
2-2	3.1%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.47
2-3	0.7%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	58.49
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	58.49
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.48
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.49
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.6%	2.79×	58.49
4-1	4.1%	1.7%	2.5%	0.70×	58.47
4-2	1.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.48
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.6%	2.79×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.58×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal leading at HT (DNB)	84.4%	87.2%	—	—	1.15
NEOM leading at HT (DNB)	15.6%	12.8%	—	—	7.82

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal or draw (1X)	91.6%	91.8%	64.8%	1.42×	1.09
Al Hilal or NEOM (12)	81.7%	80.7%	78.6%	1.03×	1.24
NEOM or draw (X2)	26.7%	26.2%	56.5%	0.46×	3.82

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal or draw at HT	90.1%	89.4%	—	—	1.12
Al Hilal or NEOM at HT	63.6%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
NEOM or draw at HT	46.3%	51.8%	—	—	1.93

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal or draw (1UP)	91.6%	93.3%	—	—	1.07
NEOM or draw (1UP)	26.7%	31.5%	—	—	3.18

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal or draw in 2nd half	88.8%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Al Hilal or NEOM in 2nd half	70.8%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
NEOM or draw in 2nd half	40.3%	39.7%	—	—	2.52

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	54.0%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
Neither half drawn	46.0%	50.0%	—	—	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal (DNB)	89.7%	87.4%	55.3%	1.58×	1.15
NEOM (DNB)	10.3%	12.6%	44.7%	0.28×	7.91

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal to score first	72.7%	75.1%	—	—	1.33
NEOM to score first	21.5%	22.6%	—	—	4.43
No goal scored	5.8%	7.5%	—	—	13.41

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	54.2%	51.4%	43.6%	1.18×	1.94
Both teams to score	45.8%	48.6%	56.4%	0.86×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	37.0%	38.5%	45.6%	0.84×	2.60
Not both score & under 2.5	33.2%	34.3%	32.9%	1.04×	2.92
Not both score & over 2.5	21.0%	27.7%	10.9%	2.55×	3.61
Both score & under 2.5	8.7%	8.4%	10.9%	0.77×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.8%	85.6%	83.6%	1.02×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	10.2%	14.4%	16.4%	0.88×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	74.9%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	25.2%	25.8%	—	—	3.88

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	63.3%	66.5%	—	—	1.50
Both score 2nd half only	21.4%	20.8%	—	—	4.82
Both score 1st half only	11.6%	10.7%	—	—	9.32
Both score in both halves	3.8%	5.0%	—	—	19.94

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.6%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	15.4%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.9%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
A half without a goal	40.1%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.6%	47.4%	43.8%	1.08×	2.11
4-6 goals	32.2%	30.7%	32.8%	0.94×	3.25
0-1 goals	18.8%	20.2%	20.8%	0.97×	4.95
7+ goals	3.4%	1.8%	2.9%	0.63×	54.45

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM to score exactly 0	50.3%	47.2%	27.0%	1.75×	2.12
NEOM to score exactly 1	34.6%	33.8%	34.2%	0.99×	2.96
NEOM to score exactly 2	11.9%	12.8%	21.9%	0.59×	7.81
NEOM to score 3+	3.3%	4.5%	17.3%	0.26×	22.08

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal to score 3+	41.1%	34.9%	21.0%	1.66×	2.87
Al Hilal to score exactly 2	26.4%	26.5%	25.0%	1.06×	3.77
Al Hilal to score exactly 1	22.7%	23.2%	32.6%	0.71×	4.30
Al Hilal to score exactly 0	9.7%	10.3%	21.7%	0.47×	9.69

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal leading at HT	53.7%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Draw at HT	36.4%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
NEOM leading at HT	9.9%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal -1: 1	50.9%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Al Hilal -1: 2	26.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Al Hilal -1: X	22.5%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal (0:1)	50.9%	51.1%	22.4%	2.29×	1.96
NEOM (0:1)	26.7%	27.0%	56.5%	0.48×	3.71
Draw (0:1)	22.5%	24.3%	21.3%	1.14×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM (0:2)	49.1%	51.6%	77.6%	0.66×	1.94
Al Hilal (0:2)	28.9%	23.9%	9.6%	2.48×	4.18
Draw (0:2)	22.0%	20.3%	12.9%	1.58×	4.92

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM (0:3)	71.1%	77.8%	90.4%	0.86×	1.29
Draw (0:3)	15.2%	16.0%	5.7%	2.82×	6.26
Al Hilal (0:3)	13.8%	10.0%	4.1%	2.43×	9.97

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM (0:4)	86.2%	91.9%	95.9%	0.96×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	8.2%	4.7%	2.9%	1.61×	21.41
Al Hilal (0:4)	5.5%	4.6%	1.4%	3.35×	21.64

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal (1:0)	91.6%	92.6%	64.8%	1.43×	1.08
Draw (1:0)	6.0%	6.9%	17.9%	0.39×	14.46
NEOM (1:0)	2.4%	3.2%	17.5%	0.18×	31.73

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal (2:0)	97.6%	96.9%	82.5%	1.17×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	1.9%	2.3%	10.4%	0.22×	44.25
NEOM (2:0)	0.5%	2.3%	7.2%	0.31×	44.35

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.6%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	24.8%	24.1%	—	—	4.14

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal clean sheet	50.3%	53.1%	27.0%	1.97×	1.89
Al Hilal to concede	49.7%	46.9%	73.0%	0.64×	2.13

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal clean sheet in 1st half	75.9%	77.3%	—	—	1.29
Al Hilal to concede in 1st half	24.1%	22.7%	—	—	4.40

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal over 2.5 corners	83.7%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Al Hilal under 6.5 corners	70.7%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Al Hilal over 3.5 corners	70.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Al Hilal under 5.5 corners	58.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Al Hilal over 4.5 corners	55.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Al Hilal under 4.5 corners	44.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Al Hilal over 5.5 corners	41.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Al Hilal under 3.5 corners	29.5%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Al Hilal over 6.5 corners	29.3%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Al Hilal under 2.5 corners	16.3%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal over 0.5 goals	90.3%	92.2%	78.3%	1.18×	1.08
Al Hilal under 3.5 goals	79.4%	77.8%	91.9%	0.85×	1.29
Al Hilal over 1.5 goals	67.6%	67.9%	45.8%	1.48×	1.47
Al Hilal under 2.5 goals	58.9%	58.8%	79.0%	0.74×	1.70
Al Hilal over 2.5 goals	41.1%	41.2%	21.0%	1.96×	2.43
Al Hilal under 1.5 goals	32.4%	32.1%	54.2%	0.59×	3.11
Al Hilal over 3.5 goals	20.6%	22.2%	8.1%	2.74×	4.50
Al Hilal under 0.5 goals	9.7%	7.8%	21.7%	0.36×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal under 1.5 in 1st half	73.5%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Al Hilal over 0.5 in 1st half	63.3%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Al Hilal under 0.5 in 1st half	36.7%	35.2%	—	—	2.84
Al Hilal over 1.5 in 1st half	26.5%	20.0%	—	—	5.00

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	68.5%	64.0%	37.8%	1.69×	1.56
NEOM (home no bet)	31.5%	36.0%	62.2%	0.58×	2.78

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal even goals	50.5%	50.6%	52.8%	0.96×	1.98
Al Hilal odd goals	49.5%	49.4%	47.2%	1.05×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.1%	28.9%	—	—	3.47
HT 1-0	27.8%	28.9%	—	—	3.47
HT 2-0	14.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.14
Any other HT score	8.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
HT 1-1	7.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.04
HT 0-1	7.5%	7.1%	—	—	14.04
HT 2-1	3.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.33
HT 0-2	1.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.53
HT 1-2	1.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.53
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.57

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal at HT / Al Hilal at FT	49.4%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Draw at HT / Al Hilal at FT	21.2%	21.8%	—	—	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
NEOM at HT / NEOM at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Draw at HT / NEOM at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Al Hilal at HT / Draw at FT	3.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.83
NEOM at HT / Draw at FT	3.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
NEOM at HT / Al Hilal at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
Al Hilal at HT / NEOM at FT	0.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.94

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal to score last	73.0%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
NEOM to score last	21.3%	26.0%	—	—	3.84
No goal scored	5.8%	7.5%	—	—	13.41

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.2%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Al Hilal to lead by 1 at any time	81.8%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	60.9%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Al Hilal to lead by 2 at any time	56.2%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	32.5%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Al Hilal to lead by 3 at any time	31.7%	29.4%	—	—	3.41
NEOM to lead by 1 at any time	23.9%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
NEOM to lead by 2 at any time	4.9%	1.7%	—	—	59.53
NEOM to lead by 3 at any time	0.8%	1.6%	—	—	63.54

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal most corners	66.7%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
NEOM most corners	22.8%	25.9%	—	—	3.85
Corners level	10.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.7%	87.4%	87.4%	1.00×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.8%	78.6%	76.4%	1.03×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.5%	78.6%	75.8%	1.04×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.7%	72.4%	71.7%	1.01×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.5%	63.4%	60.0%	1.06×	1.58
1-3 goals	58.6%	59.2%	59.6%	0.99×	1.69
3-6 goals	54.7%	53.2%	53.6%	0.99×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.5%	48.7%	48.9%	1.00×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.6%	48.7%	43.8%	1.11×	2.06
3-4 goals	39.3%	39.2%	37.2%	1.05×	2.55
1-2 goals	36.2%	39.1%	38.7%	1.01×	2.56
4-6 goals	32.2%	35.4%	32.8%	1.08×	2.83
4-5 goals	27.1%	30.2%	28.0%	1.08×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.3%	18.6%	16.5%	1.13×	5.37
7+ goals	3.4%	2.6%	2.9%	0.88×	39.18

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal never behind	70.3%	76.4%	—	—	1.31
NEOM never behind	12.4%	12.8%	—	—	7.81

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.1%	50.8%	50.5%	1.01×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.9%	49.2%	49.5%	0.99×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.2%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.8%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.1%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.9%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.2%	92.3%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	91.5%	92.3%	92.3%	1.00×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.2%	82.4%	79.2%	1.04×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	81.3%	82.4%	80.7%	1.02×	1.21
Under 3.5 goals	64.4%	61.8%	64.5%	0.96×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	58.0%	58.8%	56.4%	1.04×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	42.0%	41.2%	43.6%	0.94×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	35.6%	38.2%	35.5%	1.08×	2.62
Under 1.5 goals	18.8%	17.6%	20.8%	0.85×	5.67
Over 4.5 goals	18.7%	17.6%	19.3%	0.91×	5.67
Over 5.5 goals	8.5%	7.7%	7.7%	1.01×	12.92
Under 0.5 goals	5.8%	7.7%	5.1%	1.53×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.4%	97.2%	96.9%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.5%	92.4%	91.3%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	77.5%	75.9%	77.0%	0.99×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	75.5%	75.9%	73.0%	1.04×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.1%	51.8%	55.1%	0.94×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.9%	48.2%	44.9%	1.07×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	24.5%	24.1%	27.0%	0.89×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	22.5%	24.1%	23.0%	1.05×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.5%	7.6%	8.7%	0.87×	13.24
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.6%	2.8%	3.1%	0.91×	36.12

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.3%	88.9%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.0%	71.2%	—	—	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	63.4%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	36.6%	36.3%	—	—	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.1%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.7%	11.1%	—	—	9.04

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.1%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.7%	77.8%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	25.3%	22.2%	—	—	4.51
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.9%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM not to score in both halves	91.9%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Al Hilal not to score in both halves	53.5%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Al Hilal to score in both halves	46.5%	44.2%	—	—	2.26
NEOM to score in both halves	8.1%	9.9%	—	—	10.15

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	45.8%	50.4%	56.4%	0.90×	1.98
Only Al Hilal scores	44.5%	46.6%	22.1%	2.11×	2.15
Neither team scores	5.8%	7.2%	5.1%	1.42×	13.92
Only NEOM scores	4.0%	4.6%	16.8%	0.27×	21.82

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.2%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	21.0%	1.08×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	16.9%	17.4%	16.4%	1.06×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	13.0%	12.1%	15.9%	0.76×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	10.2%	12.1%	11.8%	1.02×	8.28
6 or more goals	8.5%	7.6%	7.7%	1.00×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	5.8%	7.6%	5.1%	1.51×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	52.2%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	29.9%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	17.9%	17.2%	—	—	5.83

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM not to win both halves	98.8%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Al Hilal not to win both halves	67.7%	70.2%	—	—	1.42
Al Hilal to win both halves	32.3%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
NEOM to win both halves	1.2%	2.7%	—	—	36.81

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal to win either half	81.1%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
NEOM to win neither half	80.1%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
NEOM to win either half	19.9%	17.4%	—	—	5.74
Al Hilal to win neither half	18.9%	17.3%	—	—	5.80

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM not to win to nil	96.0%	96.1%	83.2%	1.16×	1.04
Al Hilal not to win to nil	55.5%	58.8%	77.9%	0.75×	1.70
Al Hilal to win to nil	44.5%	41.2%	22.1%	1.87×	2.43
NEOM to win to nil	4.0%	3.9%	16.8%	0.23×	25.83

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Hilal by 3+	28.9%	27.9%	9.6%	2.89×	3.59
Al Hilal by 1	22.5%	24.1%	21.3%	1.13×	4.14
Al Hilal by 2	22.0%	24.1%	12.9%	1.88×	4.14
Draw	18.3%	16.9%	21.4%	0.79×	5.91
NEOM by 1	6.0%	7.3%	17.9%	0.40×	13.79
NEOM by 2	1.9%	2.7%	10.4%	0.26×	37.02
NEOM by 3+	0.5%	2.7%	7.2%	0.37×	37.07