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Alanyaspor v Kocaelispor — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · TUR-Super Lig · 2627

TUR-Super Lig results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Alanyaspor win
46.6%
model 47.5%
Draw
31.0%
model 31.0%
Kocaelispor win
22.4%
model 21.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 14.1%
  2. 1-0 13.9%
  3. 0-0 12.9%
  4. 2-0 10.3%
  5. 2-1 8.5%

Goals

Over 2.537.0% Under 2.563.0%
BTTS yes43.0% BTTS no57.0%
Alanyaspor 1+74.0% Alanyaspor 2+38.9%
Kocaelispor 1+56.2% Kocaelispor 2+20.0%

Expected goals 1.35 – 0.83. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
80/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Alanyaspor.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Alanyaspor have an estimated 46.6% win probability, against 31.0% for the draw and 22.4% for Kocaelispor. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.35 for Alanyaspor and 0.82 for Kocaelispor.

Why Alanyaspor

Nothing in the data singles out Alanyaspor.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 31.0%. A combined 2.17 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Kocaelispor can win

Nothing in the data singles out Kocaelispor.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Alanyaspor, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Kocaelispor, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Alanyaspor: 43% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Kocaelispor: 55% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Alanyaspor are the model's most likely outcome at 46.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.1%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.28–0.74 1-0 15% 33% 39%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to win 47.8% 47.4% 45.4% 1.04× 2.11
Draw 32.1% 30.4% 26.0% 1.17× 3.29
Kocaelispor to win 20.1% 24.4% 28.7% 0.85× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor & not both score 32.9% 29.7% 22.3% 1.33× 3.37
Draw & both teams score 17.4% 17.9% 18.2% 0.98× 5.58
Alanyaspor & both teams score 14.9% 13.3% 23.2% 0.57× 7.54
Draw & not both score 14.7% 13.3% 8.0% 1.66× 7.54
Kocaelispor & not both score 13.1% 13.3% 14.3% 0.92× 7.54
Kocaelispor & both teams score 7.0% 8.4% 14.5% 0.58× 11.93
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor & under 3.5 39.0% 34.9% 29.4% 1.19× 2.86
Alanyaspor & over 1.5 32.3% 30.8% 36.2% 0.85× 3.24
Draw & under 2.5 28.8% 26.0% 20.4% 1.28× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 28.8% 26.0% 20.4% 1.28× 3.84
Alanyaspor & under 2.5 26.3% 26.0% 15.2% 1.71× 3.84
Alanyaspor & over 2.5 21.4% 21.6% 30.3% 0.71× 4.62
Kocaelispor & under 3.5 17.6% 18.0% 19.5% 0.92× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 17.4% 18.0% 18.2% 0.99× 5.56
Alanyaspor & under 1.5 15.5% 18.0% 9.3% 1.93× 5.56
Draw & under 1.5 14.7% 12.9% 8.0% 1.61× 7.77
Kocaelispor & over 1.5 11.8% 12.9% 22.3% 0.58× 7.77
Kocaelispor & under 2.5 12.0% 12.9% 10.8% 1.19× 7.77
Alanyaspor & over 3.5 8.8% 7.9% 16.1% 0.49× 12.70
Kocaelispor & under 1.5 8.4% 7.9% 6.5% 1.21× 12.70
Kocaelispor & over 2.5 8.1% 7.9% 18.0% 0.44× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 3.3% 4.8% 5.8% 0.83× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 3.3% 4.8% 5.8% 0.83× 20.93
Kocaelispor & over 3.5 2.6% 4.8% 9.3% 0.51× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (1UP) 59.4% 58.3% 1.72
Kocaelispor (1UP) 34.1% 33.0% 3.03
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (2UP) 47.8% 49.7% 2.01
Kocaelispor (2UP) 20.1% 23.2% 4.30
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 42.8% 41.2% 2.43
Alanyaspor to win 2nd half 37.6% 36.3% 2.76
Kocaelispor to win 2nd half 19.6% 19.3% 5.18
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kocaelispor (+2.5) 91.8% 92.1% 90.1% 1.02× 1.09
Alanyaspor (+0.5) 79.9% 78.5% 71.3% 1.10× 1.27
Kocaelispor (+1.5) 77.1% 78.5% 78.6% 1.00× 1.28
Kocaelispor (+0.5) 52.2% 52.4% 54.6% 0.96× 1.91
Alanyaspor (-0.5) 47.8% 47.6% 45.4% 1.05× 2.10
Alanyaspor (-1.5) 22.9% 21.5% 21.5% 1.00× 4.64
Kocaelispor (-0.5) 20.1% 21.5% 28.7% 0.75× 4.65
Alanyaspor (-2.5) 8.2% 7.9% 9.9% 0.80× 12.64
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kocaelispor to concede 72.2% 76.5% 77.8% 0.98× 1.31
Kocaelispor clean sheet 27.8% 23.5% 22.2% 1.06× 4.25
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kocaelispor clean sheet in 1st half 57.7% 57.9% 1.73
Kocaelispor to concede in 1st half 42.3% 42.1% 2.38
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kocaelispor under 6.5 corners 94.8% 90.1% 1.11
Kocaelispor under 5.5 corners 89.5% 85.2% 1.17
Kocaelispor under 4.5 corners 80.1% 81.4% 1.23
Kocaelispor under 3.5 corners 65.4% 67.5% 1.48
Kocaelispor over 2.5 corners 54.4% 53.1% 1.88
Kocaelispor under 2.5 corners 45.6% 46.9% 2.13
Kocaelispor over 3.5 corners 34.6% 32.5% 3.08
Kocaelispor over 4.5 corners 19.9% 18.6% 5.39
Kocaelispor over 5.5 corners 10.5% 14.8% 6.75
Kocaelispor over 6.5 corners 5.2% 9.9% 10.09
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kocaelispor under 3.5 goals 99.3% 97.6% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
Kocaelispor under 2.5 goals 96.1% 97.5% 86.2% 1.13× 1.03
Kocaelispor under 1.5 goals 82.9% 81.4% 65.2% 1.25× 1.23
Kocaelispor over 0.5 goals 52.4% 53.7% 69.8% 0.77× 1.86
Kocaelispor under 0.5 goals 47.6% 46.3% 30.2% 1.54× 2.16
Kocaelispor over 1.5 goals 17.1% 18.6% 34.8% 0.53× 5.39
Kocaelispor over 2.5 goals 3.9% 2.5% 13.8% 0.18× 40.77
Kocaelispor over 3.5 goals 0.7% 2.4% 4.6% 0.53× 40.95
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kocaelispor under 1.5 in 1st half 96.4% 95.7% 1.05
Kocaelispor under 0.5 in 1st half 74.3% 68.8% 1.45
Kocaelispor over 0.5 in 1st half 25.7% 31.2% 3.21
Kocaelispor over 1.5 in 1st half 3.6% 4.3% 23.41
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (away no bet) 59.8% 57.6% 63.6% 0.91× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 40.2% 42.4% 36.4% 1.16× 2.36
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kocaelispor even goals 61.3% 59.0% 54.4% 1.08× 1.69
Kocaelispor odd goals 38.7% 41.0% 45.6% 0.90× 2.44
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 93.2% 92.6% 1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals 6.8% 7.4% 13.59
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 52.5% 50.3% 1.99
Not both halves under 1.5 47.5% 49.7% 2.01
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 41.9% 38.3% 2.61
Alanyaspor to score 2+ in a row 31.6% 28.7% 3.48
Kocaelispor to score 2+ in a row 12.7% 12.1% 8.26
Either team to score 3+ in a row 12.7% 12.1% 8.26
Alanyaspor to score 3+ in a row 10.4% 12.0% 8.30
Kocaelispor to score 3+ in a row 2.3% 2.6% 38.99
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor corners (+3.5) 95.1% 95.7% 1.04
Alanyaspor corners (+2.5) 90.9% 89.6% 1.12
Alanyaspor corners (+1.5) 84.2% 79.7% 1.25
Kocaelispor corners (+3.5) 73.7% 70.7% 1.41
Kocaelispor corners (+2.5) 62.6% 61.9% 1.62
Alanyaspor corners (-1.5) 50.1% 52.5% 1.91
Kocaelispor corners (+1.5) 49.9% 47.5% 2.10
Alanyaspor corners (-2.5) 37.4% 38.1% 2.63
Alanyaspor corners (-3.5) 26.3% 29.3% 3.42
Kocaelispor corners (-1.5) 15.8% 20.3% 4.93
Kocaelispor corners (-2.5) 9.1% 10.4% 9.58
Kocaelispor corners (-3.5) 4.9% 4.3% 23.51
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 64.7% 48.1% 2.08
9-11 corners 23.8% 25.6% 3.90
12+ corners 11.5% 21.1% 4.75
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 92.7% 83.4% 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 88.5% 83.0% 1.21
Under 10.5 corners 82.6% 80.8% 1.24
Under 9.5 corners 74.6% 72.7% 1.38
Under 8.5 corners 64.7% 63.4% 1.58
Under 7.5 corners 53.0% 53.3% 1.88
Over 7.5 corners 47.0% 46.7% 2.14
Over 8.5 corners 35.3% 36.6% 2.73
Over 9.5 corners 25.4% 27.3% 3.66
Over 10.5 corners 17.4% 19.2% 5.20
Over 11.5 corners 11.5% 17.0% 5.89
Over 12.5 corners 7.3% 16.6% 6.01
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 15.5% 13.7% 9.3% 1.47× 7.28
0-0 14.7% 11.5% 8.0% 1.43× 8.73
1-1 14.0% 11.5% 12.6% 0.91× 8.73
2-0 10.8% 11.4% 6.1% 1.89× 8.74
0-1 8.4% 7.4% 6.5% 1.14× 13.47
2-1 8.0% 7.4% 9.9% 0.75× 13.47
1-2 4.7% 1.7% 6.7% 0.26× 58.50
0-2 3.6% 1.7% 4.4% 0.39× 58.50
0-3 0.9% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.52
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.2% 1.44× 58.52
1-3 1.2% 1.7% 2.7% 0.64× 58.52
1-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.65× 58.52
2-2 3.0% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.51
2-3 0.7% 1.7% 2.7% 0.64× 58.52
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.31× 58.52
3-0 4.6% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.50
3-1 3.4% 1.7% 4.7% 0.36× 58.50
3-2 1.3% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.52
3-3 0.3% 1.7% 1.3% 1.28× 58.52
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 3.85× 58.52
4-0 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 0.96× 58.52
4-1 1.1% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.52
4-2 0.4% 1.7% 1.2% 1.44× 58.52
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.31× 58.52
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 11.55× 58.52
Any other score 1.1% 1.7% 4.1% 0.41× 58.52
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor leading at HT (DNB) 68.1% 74.3% 1.35
Kocaelispor leading at HT (DNB) 31.9% 25.7% 3.89
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor or draw (1X) 79.9% 75.6% 71.3% 1.06× 1.32
Alanyaspor or Kocaelispor (12) 67.9% 69.6% 74.0% 0.94× 1.44
Kocaelispor or draw (X2) 52.2% 52.6% 54.6% 0.96× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor or draw at HT 84.3% 84.5% 1.18
Kocaelispor or draw at HT 66.4% 66.3% 1.51
Alanyaspor or Kocaelispor at HT 49.3% 52.6% 1.90
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor or draw (1UP) 79.9% 84.2% 1.19
Kocaelispor or draw (1UP) 52.2% 59.2% 1.69
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor or draw in 2nd half 80.4% 80.7% 1.24
Kocaelispor or draw in 2nd half 62.4% 63.7% 1.57
Alanyaspor or Kocaelispor in 2nd half 57.2% 58.8% 1.70
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 70.3% 69.7% 1.43
Neither half drawn 29.7% 30.3% 3.30
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (DNB) 70.3% 71.4% 61.3% 1.17× 1.40
Kocaelispor (DNB) 29.7% 28.6% 38.7% 0.74× 3.50
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to score first 54.0% 53.9% 1.85
Kocaelispor to score first 31.3% 26.8% 3.73
No goal scored 14.7% 10.7% 9.32
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 60.7% 56.5% 44.4% 1.27× 1.77
Both teams to score 39.3% 43.5% 55.6% 0.78× 2.30
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 53.1% 47.1% 33.7% 1.40× 2.12
Both score & over 2.5 25.2% 33.6% 43.2% 0.78× 2.98
Both score & under 2.5 14.0% 12.3% 12.6% 0.98× 8.12
Not both score & over 2.5 7.7% 8.4% 10.8% 0.77× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 93.8% 89.1% 83.4% 1.07× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 6.2% 10.9% 16.6% 0.66× 9.19
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 80.9% 72.4% 1.38
Both teams to score in 2nd half 19.1% 27.6% 3.63
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 71.8% 67.7% 1.48
Both score 2nd half only 17.1% 15.8% 6.35
Both score 1st half only 9.1% 6.8% 14.69
Both score in both halves 2.0% 4.8% 20.72
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 88.9% 86.1% 1.16
Both teams to score by HT 11.1% 13.9% 7.19
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 59.8% 57.6% 1.74
A goal in each half 40.2% 42.4% 2.36
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.8% 47.4% 45.7% 1.04× 2.11
0-1 goals 38.6% 35.1% 23.5% 1.49× 2.85
4-6 goals 14.2% 17.0% 28.4% 0.60× 5.90
7+ goals 0.5% 1.8% 2.7% 0.68× 55.21
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kocaelispor to score exactly 0 47.6% 42.9% 30.2% 1.42× 2.33
Kocaelispor to score exactly 1 35.3% 36.0% 35.2% 1.02× 2.78
Kocaelispor to score exactly 2 13.1% 12.8% 21.2% 0.61× 7.81
Kocaelispor to score 3+ 3.9% 4.5% 13.8% 0.33× 22.04
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to score exactly 1 35.6% 35.6% 32.1% 1.11× 2.81
Alanyaspor to score exactly 0 27.8% 26.5% 22.2% 1.19× 3.77
Alanyaspor to score exactly 2 22.8% 23.3% 23.8% 0.98× 4.30
Alanyaspor to score 3+ 13.8% 14.3% 22.2% 0.65× 6.97
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 50.7% 47.4% 2.11
Alanyaspor leading at HT 33.6% 33.7% 2.97
Kocaelispor leading at HT 15.7% 15.5% 6.44
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor -1: 2 52.2% 52.1% 1.92
Alanyaspor -1: X 24.9% 23.6% 4.24
Alanyaspor -1: 1 22.9% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kocaelispor (0:1) 52.2% 51.2% 54.6% 0.94× 1.96
Draw (0:1) 24.9% 24.3% 24.1% 1.01× 4.12
Alanyaspor (0:1) 22.9% 24.3% 21.5% 1.13× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kocaelispor (0:2) 77.1% 79.4% 78.6% 1.01× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 14.7% 11.0% 11.7% 0.94× 9.10
Alanyaspor (0:2) 8.2% 7.7% 9.9% 0.78× 12.95
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kocaelispor (0:3) 91.8% 92.6% 90.1% 1.03× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.8% 5.8% 6.5% 0.89× 17.21
Alanyaspor (0:3) 2.3% 2.4% 3.6% 0.67× 42.11
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kocaelispor (0:4) 97.7% 98.1% 96.5% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.8% 1.2% 2.5% 0.48× 83.40
Alanyaspor (0:4) 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.01× 83.55
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (1:0) 79.9% 78.5% 71.3% 1.10× 1.27
Draw (1:0) 13.8% 12.8% 15.8% 0.81× 7.80
Kocaelispor (1:0) 6.3% 6.9% 13.0% 0.53× 14.49
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor (2:0) 93.7% 94.0% 87.0% 1.08× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 4.9% 2.3% 7.7% 0.29× 44.19
Kocaelispor (2:0) 1.4% 2.3% 5.5% 0.41× 44.42
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 42.2% 47.3% 2.11
Halves equal 32.3% 29.9% 3.34
1st half highest scoring 25.5% 26.5% 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to concede 52.4% 53.1% 69.8% 0.76× 1.88
Alanyaspor clean sheet 47.6% 46.9% 30.2% 1.55× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor clean sheet in 1st half 74.3% 68.5% 1.46
Alanyaspor to concede in 1st half 25.7% 31.5% 3.18
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor under 6.5 corners 79.1% 76.6% 1.31
Alanyaspor over 2.5 corners 78.2% 76.6% 1.31
Alanyaspor under 5.5 corners 67.9% 66.7% 1.50
Alanyaspor over 3.5 corners 62.5% 62.3% 1.61
Alanyaspor under 4.5 corners 53.7% 52.8% 1.90
Alanyaspor over 4.5 corners 46.4% 47.2% 2.12
Alanyaspor under 3.5 corners 37.5% 37.7% 2.65
Alanyaspor over 5.5 corners 32.1% 33.3% 3.00
Alanyaspor under 2.5 corners 21.8% 23.4% 4.27
Alanyaspor over 6.5 corners 20.9% 23.4% 4.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor under 3.5 goals 95.9% 96.4% 92.6% 1.04× 1.04
Alanyaspor under 2.5 goals 86.2% 87.2% 77.8% 1.12× 1.15
Alanyaspor over 0.5 goals 72.2% 74.2% 77.8% 0.95× 1.35
Alanyaspor under 1.5 goals 63.4% 63.4% 54.1% 1.17× 1.58
Alanyaspor over 1.5 goals 36.6% 36.6% 45.9% 0.80× 2.74
Alanyaspor under 0.5 goals 27.8% 25.8% 22.2% 1.16× 3.88
Alanyaspor over 2.5 goals 13.8% 12.8% 22.2% 0.58× 7.84
Alanyaspor over 3.5 goals 4.1% 3.7% 7.4% 0.49× 27.40
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor under 1.5 in 1st half 89.4% 90.0% 1.11
Alanyaspor under 0.5 in 1st half 57.7% 57.5% 1.74
Alanyaspor over 0.5 in 1st half 42.3% 42.5% 2.35
Alanyaspor over 1.5 in 1st half 10.6% 10.0% 10.01
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 61.4% 60.1% 47.6% 1.26× 1.66
Kocaelispor (home no bet) 38.6% 39.9% 52.4% 0.76× 2.51
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor even goals 53.9% 50.6% 50.9% 1.00× 1.98
Alanyaspor odd goals 46.1% 49.4% 49.1% 1.01× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 43.1% 42.2% 2.37
HT 1-0 23.3% 24.2% 4.13
HT 0-1 12.5% 11.0% 9.11
HT 1-1 7.3% 7.1% 14.17
HT 2-0 6.5% 7.1% 14.19
Any other HT score 2.2% 2.3% 43.91
HT 2-1 1.9% 2.3% 43.93
HT 0-2 1.9% 2.3% 43.93
HT 1-2 1.0% 2.3% 43.99
HT 2-2 0.3% 2.3% 44.05
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor at HT / Alanyaspor at FT 27.8% 26.7% 3.75
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 23.2% 21.8% 4.59
Draw at HT / Alanyaspor at FT 18.3% 16.8% 5.94
Kocaelispor at HT / Kocaelispor at FT 9.9% 6.1% 16.51
Draw at HT / Kocaelispor at FT 9.2% 6.1% 16.53
Alanyaspor at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.5% 28.80
Kocaelispor at HT / Draw at FT 4.2% 3.5% 28.82
Kocaelispor at HT / Alanyaspor at FT 1.7% 3.5% 28.92
Alanyaspor at HT / Kocaelispor at FT 1.1% 3.5% 28.95
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor to score last 54.2% 52.0% 1.93
Kocaelispor to score last 31.1% 33.0% 3.03
No goal scored 14.7% 10.1% 9.87
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 85.3% 90.1% 1.11
Alanyaspor to lead by 1 at any time 59.4% 55.2% 1.81
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 36.0% 34.7% 2.88
Kocaelispor to lead by 1 at any time 34.1% 29.4% 3.40
Alanyaspor to lead by 2 at any time 26.9% 25.3% 3.96
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 11.2% 10.4% 9.64
Alanyaspor to lead by 3 at any time 9.4% 6.6% 15.14
Kocaelispor to lead by 2 at any time 9.1% 6.6% 15.15
Kocaelispor to lead by 3 at any time 1.8% 1.5% 64.74
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor most corners 63.0% 60.5% 1.65
Kocaelispor most corners 25.2% 31.0% 3.23
Corners level 11.8% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 83.5% 83.5% 85.5% 0.98× 1.20
1-4 goals 79.8% 78.6% 75.4% 1.04× 1.27
1-3 goals 70.6% 72.4% 61.2% 1.18× 1.38
2-6 goals 61.0% 63.4% 74.0% 0.86× 1.58
2-5 goals 59.7% 59.2% 70.0% 0.85× 1.69
2-4 goals 56.0% 59.2% 59.9% 0.99× 1.69
1-2 goals 52.4% 53.2% 38.3% 1.39× 1.88
2-3 goals 46.8% 48.7% 45.7% 1.06× 2.06
3-6 goals 32.4% 35.4% 51.3% 0.69× 2.83
3-5 goals 31.2% 35.4% 47.3% 0.75× 2.83
3-4 goals 27.4% 30.2% 37.3% 0.81× 3.31
4-6 goals 14.2% 14.9% 28.4% 0.52× 6.72
4-5 goals 12.9% 14.9% 24.4% 0.61× 6.72
5-6 goals 5.0% 2.5% 14.2% 0.18× 39.29
7+ goals 0.5% 2.5% 2.7% 0.95× 39.50
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alanyaspor never behind 51.1% 62.2% 1.61
Kocaelispor never behind 25.9% 29.8% 3.35
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 46.2% 50.8% 50.7% 1.00× 1.97
Even number of goals 53.8% 49.2% 49.3% 1.00× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 59.7% 57.7% 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 40.3% 42.3% 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 55.8% 59.4% 1.68
Odd goals in 2nd half 44.2% 40.6% 2.46
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 98.3% 95.5% 93.3% 1.02× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 94.5% 92.3% 83.3% 1.11× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 85.3% 87.6% 92.0% 0.95× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 85.3% 87.6% 69.1% 1.27× 1.14
Under 2.5 goals 67.1% 66.2% 46.2% 1.43× 1.51
Over 1.5 goals 61.4% 61.7% 76.5% 0.81× 1.62
Under 1.5 goals 38.6% 38.3% 23.5% 1.63× 2.61
Over 2.5 goals 32.9% 33.8% 53.8% 0.63× 2.96
Under 0.5 goals 14.7% 12.4% 8.0% 1.55× 8.09
Over 3.5 goals 14.7% 12.4% 30.9% 0.40× 8.09
Over 4.5 goals 5.5% 7.7% 16.7% 0.46× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 1.7% 4.5% 6.7% 0.67× 22.26
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.5% 97.3% 97.2% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 98.2% 97.3% 92.6% 1.05× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 94.0% 92.5% 80.5% 1.15× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 82.1% 81.1% 59.9% 1.35× 1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 54.0% 51.8% 30.4% 1.70× 1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 46.0% 48.2% 69.6% 0.69× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 17.9% 18.9% 40.1% 0.47× 5.28
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 6.0% 7.5% 19.5% 0.39× 13.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 1.8% 2.8% 7.4% 0.37× 36.37
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.5% 2.7% 2.8% 0.99× 36.41
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 94.6% 92.9% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 78.9% 78.9% 1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half 56.9% 63.6% 1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half 43.1% 36.4% 2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half 21.1% 21.1% 4.75
Over 2.5 in 1st half 5.4% 7.1% 14.17
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 88.5% 85.3% 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 68.6% 67.1% 1.49
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 66.7% 67.0% 1.49
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 33.3% 33.0% 3.03
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 31.4% 32.9% 3.04
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 11.5% 14.7% 6.82
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kocaelispor not to score in both halves 90.8% 89.9% 1.11
Alanyaspor not to score in both halves 78.1% 78.3% 1.28
Alanyaspor to score in both halves 21.9% 21.7% 4.60
Kocaelispor to score in both halves 9.2% 10.1% 9.89
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 39.3% 39.9% 55.6% 0.72× 2.51
Only Alanyaspor scores 32.9% 33.4% 22.3% 1.49× 3.00
Neither team scores 14.7% 11.0% 8.0% 1.37× 9.13
Only Kocaelispor scores 13.1% 10.9% 14.3% 0.76× 9.14
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 28.5% 25.0% 22.8% 1.10× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 23.8% 22.6% 15.7% 1.44× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 18.2% 17.4% 23.1% 0.76× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 14.7% 12.1% 8.0% 1.51× 8.28
Exactly 4 goals 9.2% 7.6% 14.3% 0.53× 13.09
Exactly 5 goals 3.7% 4.4% 10.2% 0.43× 22.68
6 or more goals 1.7% 4.4% 6.7% 0.66× 22.71
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 35.3% 39.8% 2.51
2+ goals in 2nd half 33.3% 33.7% 2.97
No goals in 2nd half 31.4% 33.6% 2.98
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kocaelispor not to win both halves 96.8% 97.2% 1.03
Alanyaspor not to win both halves 87.1% 88.0% 1.14
Alanyaspor to win both halves 12.9% 12.0% 8.33
Kocaelispor to win both halves 3.2% 2.8% 35.70
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kocaelispor to win neither half 67.9% 67.9% 1.47
Alanyaspor to win either half 58.3% 59.5% 1.68
Alanyaspor to win neither half 41.7% 40.5% 2.47
Kocaelispor to win either half 32.1% 32.1% 3.12
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kocaelispor not to win to nil 86.9% 88.2% 85.7% 1.03× 1.13
Alanyaspor not to win to nil 67.1% 69.6% 77.7% 0.90× 1.44
Alanyaspor to win to nil 32.9% 30.4% 22.3% 1.36× 3.29
Kocaelispor to win to nil 13.1% 11.8% 14.3% 0.82× 8.48
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 32.1% 27.6% 26.0% 1.06× 3.62
Alanyaspor by 1 24.9% 24.2% 24.1% 1.00× 4.14
Alanyaspor by 2 14.7% 11.8% 11.7% 1.01× 8.46
Kocaelispor by 1 13.8% 11.8% 15.8% 0.75× 8.47
Alanyaspor by 3+ 8.2% 7.2% 9.9% 0.73× 13.80
Kocaelispor by 2 4.9% 2.7% 7.7% 0.35× 36.98
Kocaelispor by 3+ 1.4% 2.7% 5.5% 0.49× 37.09
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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