Alaves v Atletico Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 30 August 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
5 – 15
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
3 – 12
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.74 – 0.33
Goals − xG
+0.14 – +0.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Alaves win
24.5%
Draw
24.6%
Atletico Madrid win
50.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Alaves are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDWWLWDWW last 10
scored 18
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.8 xG
Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLWWLWDWL last 10
scored 16
from 17.5 xG
conceded 15
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.81–1.34 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.99–1.43 | 0-1 13% | 43% | 48% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Alaves 0.86 xGAtletico Madrid 0.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Alaves attacking right
Atletico Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Atletico Madrid |
Giuliano Simeone | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 6' |
Atletico Madrid |
Thiago Almada | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
 Alaves |
Carlos Vicente | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 17' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Moussa Diarra |
| 19' |
Atletico Madrid |
David Hancko | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Julián Álvarez |
| 23' |
Atletico Madrid |
Clement Lenglet | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Atletico Madrid |
Thiago Almada | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carles Aleñá |
| 34' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | David Hancko |
| 38' |
Atletico Madrid |
Marcos Llorente | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Atletico Madrid |
Pablo Barrios Rivas | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Johnny Cardoso |
| 48' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonny |
| 69' |
Atletico Madrid |
Pablo Barrios Rivas | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Antoine Griezmann |
| 76' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 82' |
Alaves |
Antonio Blanco | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Benavídez |
| 84' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 95' |
Atletico Madrid |
Marcos Llorente | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Koke |
| 97' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 102' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Koke |
Players
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Vicente MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Antonio Blanco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Facundo Garcés DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jonny DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Carles Aleñá ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Martínez FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Pablo Ibáñez MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Moussa Diarra DL | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Jon Guridi FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Victor Parada Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ander Guevara Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Benavídez Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Mariano Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Denis Suárez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Llorente DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Giuliano Simeone MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Pablo Barrios Rivas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Julián Álvarez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| Alexander Sørloth FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Clement Lenglet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Robin Le Normand DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Jan Oblak GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thiago Almada ML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| David Hancko DL | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Johnny Cardoso MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Ruggeri Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Conor Gallagher Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Antoine Griezmann Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Giacomo Raspadori Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Koke Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.17 |