Alaves v Atletico Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyAlaves win
47.1%
model 44.7%
Draw
22.8%
model 24.6%
Atletico Madrid win
30.0%
model 30.7%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.5%
- 2-1 9.2%
- 1-0 9.0%
- 1-2 7.4%
- 0-1 7.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 54.7% | Under 2.5 | 45.3% |
| BTTS yes | 57.4% | BTTS no | 42.6% |
| Alaves 1+ | 79.6% | Alaves 2+ | 47.2% |
| Atletico Madrid 1+ | 72.1% | Atletico Madrid 2+ | 36.5% |
Expected goals 1.59 – 1.28. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
90/100
Data quality
90/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
3-6 goals
Multi goal · usually 48%
52.0% fair odds 1.92
moderate signal · 1537 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time · usually 83%
83.3% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1227 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
- At home Alaves average 1.50 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Alaves have scored 2.20 a match from 1.55 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Alaves have an estimated 47.1% win probability, against 30.0% for Atletico Madrid and 22.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.59 for Alaves and 1.28 for Atletico Madrid.
Why Alaves
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Alaves average 1.50 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.8%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Atletico Madrid can win
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger rating, 1630 Elo against 1536.
Key players
Alaves's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Antonio Martínez (0.51), Lucas Boyé (0.44), Ángel Pérez (0.29). Atletico Madrid's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Alexander Sørloth (0.43), Julián Álvarez (0.42), Antoine Griezmann (0.34).
Availability
1 of Alaves's top three contributors did not start their last match. 3 of Atletico Madrid's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Atletico Madrid's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Alaves: 45% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces. Atletico Madrid: 55% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.46 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·
Alaves are the model's most likely outcome at 47.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.5%. Confidence 90/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Alaves are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDWWLWDWW last 10
scored 18
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.8 xG
Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLWWLWDWL last 10
scored 16
from 17.5 xG
conceded 15
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.59–1.28 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.38–1.25 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 53% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves to win | 48.7% | 47.5% | 46.9% | 1.01× | 2.11 |
| Atletico Madrid to win | 27.6% | 27.9% | 28.1% | 0.99× | 3.59 |
| Draw | 23.7% | 24.5% | 25.1% | 0.97× | 4.09 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves & both teams score | 24.9% | 21.9% | 21.7% | 1.01× | 4.57 |
| Alaves & not both score | 23.8% | 21.9% | 25.3% | 0.86× | 4.57 |
| Draw & both teams score | 18.5% | 17.9% | 20.1% | 0.89× | 5.58 |
| Atletico Madrid & both teams score | 14.8% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 0.97× | 7.54 |
| Atletico Madrid & not both score | 12.7% | 13.3% | 14.6% | 0.91× | 7.54 |
| Draw & not both score | 5.2% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 1.64× | 11.94 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves & over 1.5 | 39.8% | 34.9% | 34.2% | 1.02× | 2.87 |
| Alaves & over 2.5 | 32.1% | 30.9% | 28.1% | 1.10× | 3.24 |
| Alaves & under 3.5 | 30.6% | 30.9% | 33.1% | 0.93× | 3.24 |
| Atletico Madrid & over 1.5 | 21.1% | 21.7% | 21.1% | 1.03× | 4.62 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 18.5% | 18.0% | 20.1% | 0.89× | 5.56 |
| Atletico Madrid & under 3.5 | 18.9% | 18.0% | 21.7% | 0.83× | 5.56 |
| Alaves & over 3.5 | 18.1% | 18.0% | 14.0% | 1.29× | 5.56 |
| Alaves & under 2.5 | 16.6% | 18.0% | 19.0% | 0.95× | 5.56 |
| Atletico Madrid & over 2.5 | 17.1% | 18.0% | 16.6% | 1.08× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 16.3% | 18.0% | 20.0% | 0.90× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 16.3% | 18.0% | 20.0% | 0.90× | 5.56 |
| Atletico Madrid & under 2.5 | 10.4% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 1.11× | 7.77 |
| Alaves & under 1.5 | 9.0% | 7.9% | 12.9% | 0.61× | 12.69 |
| Atletico Madrid & over 3.5 | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 1.21× | 12.69 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 7.5% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 1.50× | 12.70 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 7.5% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 1.50× | 12.70 |
| Atletico Madrid & under 1.5 | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 1.11× | 12.70 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 5.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 1.54× | 12.70 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves (1UP) | 64.5% | 63.2% | 63.2% | 1.00× | 1.58 |
| Atletico Madrid (1UP) | 46.4% | 43.2% | 47.1% | 0.92× | 2.32 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves (2UP) | 48.7% | 49.9% | 48.8% | 1.02× | 2.00 |
| Atletico Madrid (2UP) | 27.6% | 24.9% | 29.7% | 0.84× | 4.02 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves to win 2nd half | 40.8% | 41.0% | 39.4% | 1.04× | 2.44 |
| 2nd half drawn | 32.5% | 34.5% | 33.0% | 1.04× | 2.90 |
| Atletico Madrid to win 2nd half | 26.7% | 26.3% | 27.7% | 0.95× | 3.81 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid (+2.5) | 88.6% | 88.5% | 90.0% | 0.98× | 1.13 |
| Atletico Madrid (+1.5) | 73.8% | 73.7% | 79.2% | 0.93× | 1.36 |
| Alaves (+0.5) | 72.4% | 73.7% | 71.9% | 1.03× | 1.36 |
| Atletico Madrid (+0.5) | 51.3% | 52.3% | 53.1% | 0.99× | 1.91 |
| Alaves (-0.5) | 48.7% | 47.7% | 46.9% | 1.02× | 2.10 |
| Atletico Madrid (-0.5) | 27.6% | 26.3% | 28.1% | 0.94× | 3.80 |
| Alaves (-1.5) | 26.2% | 26.3% | 20.8% | 1.26× | 3.81 |
| Alaves (-2.5) | 11.4% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 1.15× | 8.71 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid to concede | 82.1% | 81.3% | 80.4% | 1.01× | 1.23 |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 17.9% | 18.7% | 19.6% | 0.95× | 5.35 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid to concede in 1st half | 49.7% | 50.8% | 48.1% | 1.06× | 1.97 |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet in 1st half | 50.3% | 49.2% | 51.9% | 0.95× | 2.03 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid over 2.5 corners | 85.8% | 85.2% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Atletico Madrid over 3.5 corners | 73.6% | 71.6% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Atletico Madrid under 6.5 corners | 67.1% | 67.5% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Atletico Madrid over 4.5 corners | 59.5% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Atletico Madrid under 5.5 corners | 54.6% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Atletico Madrid over 5.5 corners | 45.4% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Atletico Madrid under 4.5 corners | 40.5% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Atletico Madrid over 6.5 corners | 32.9% | 32.5% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Atletico Madrid under 3.5 corners | 26.4% | 28.4% | — | — | 3.52 |
| Atletico Madrid under 2.5 corners | 14.2% | 14.8% | — | — | 6.75 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid under 3.5 goals | 96.3% | 97.5% | 97.3% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Atletico Madrid under 2.5 goals | 87.2% | 87.9% | 90.1% | 0.98× | 1.14 |
| Atletico Madrid over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | 71.9% | 69.7% | 1.03× | 1.39 |
| Atletico Madrid under 1.5 goals | 65.0% | 63.0% | 68.2% | 0.92× | 1.59 |
| Atletico Madrid over 1.5 goals | 35.0% | 37.0% | 31.8% | 1.16× | 2.70 |
| Atletico Madrid under 0.5 goals | 29.0% | 28.1% | 30.3% | 0.93× | 3.56 |
| Atletico Madrid over 2.5 goals | 12.8% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 1.23× | 8.25 |
| Atletico Madrid over 3.5 goals | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 0.90× | 40.68 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid under 1.5 in 1st half | 92.0% | 94.2% | 93.4% | 1.01× | 1.06 |
| Atletico Madrid under 0.5 in 1st half | 62.8% | 64.2% | 63.5% | 1.01× | 1.56 |
| Atletico Madrid over 0.5 in 1st half | 37.2% | 35.8% | 36.5% | 0.98× | 2.79 |
| Atletico Madrid over 1.5 in 1st half | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 0.88× | 17.12 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves (away no bet) | 67.2% | 66.4% | 65.2% | 1.02× | 1.51 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 32.8% | 33.6% | 34.8% | 0.97× | 2.97 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid even goals | 54.2% | 52.8% | 54.1% | 0.98× | 1.89 |
| Atletico Madrid odd goals | 45.8% | 47.2% | 45.9% | 1.03× | 2.12 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 82.8% | 82.9% | 87.0% | 0.95× | 1.21 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 17.2% | 17.1% | 13.0% | 1.31× | 5.86 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 68.6% | 68.7% | 62.5% | 1.10× | 1.46 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 31.4% | 31.3% | 37.5% | 0.83× | 3.20 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 60.2% | 59.8% | 52.3% | 1.14× | 1.67 |
| Alaves to score 2+ in a row | 42.2% | 38.3% | 34.3% | 1.12× | 2.61 |
| Atletico Madrid to score 2+ in a row | 25.5% | 25.0% | 23.5% | 1.06× | 4.00 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 22.9% | 19.5% | 18.9% | 1.03× | 5.12 |
| Alaves to score 3+ in a row | 16.4% | 16.3% | 13.0% | 1.25× | 6.13 |
| Atletico Madrid to score 3+ in a row | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 0.88× | 17.73 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid corners (+3.5) | 85.8% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Atletico Madrid corners (+2.5) | 79.2% | 74.9% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Alaves corners (+3.5) | 77.5% | 74.9% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Atletico Madrid corners (+1.5) | 71.0% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Alaves corners (+2.5) | 69.2% | 65.8% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Alaves corners (+1.5) | 59.5% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Atletico Madrid corners (-1.5) | 40.5% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Atletico Madrid corners (-2.5) | 30.8% | 34.2% | — | — | 2.92 |
| Alaves corners (-1.5) | 29.1% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Atletico Madrid corners (-3.5) | 22.5% | 25.1% | — | — | 3.98 |
| Alaves corners (-2.5) | 20.8% | 25.1% | — | — | 3.98 |
| Alaves corners (-3.5) | 14.2% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.45 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12+ corners | 36.2% | 33.7% | — | — | 2.97 |
| 0-8 corners | 33.9% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| 9-11 corners | 29.8% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 corners | 75.7% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 12.5 corners | 72.1% | 72.6% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 66.1% | 67.7% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 63.8% | 63.4% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55.9% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 54.3% | 53.3% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 45.7% | 46.7% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 44.1% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 36.2% | 36.6% | — | — | 2.73 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 33.9% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.09 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 27.9% | 27.4% | — | — | 3.66 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 24.3% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.2% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.8% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.1% | 11.5% | 15.0% | 0.76× | 8.73 |
| 1-0 | 9.0% | 7.4% | 12.9% | 0.58× | 13.48 |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 0.76× | 13.48 |
| 1-2 | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 0.89× | 13.48 |
| 2-0 | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 1.19× | 13.48 |
| 0-0 | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 1.45× | 13.48 |
| 0-1 | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 1.04× | 13.48 |
| 2-2 | 5.9% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 1.70× | 13.48 |
| 3-1 | 5.4% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 2.05× | 13.48 |
| 0-2 | 4.0% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 0.37× | 58.47 |
| 0-3 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.86× | 58.48 |
| 0-4 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.96× | 58.49 |
| 1-3 | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.91× | 58.47 |
| 1-4 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.42× | 58.48 |
| 2-3 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.81× | 58.48 |
| 2-4 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.42× | 58.49 |
| 3-0 | 4.4% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 0.37× | 58.46 |
| 3-2 | 3.4% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 0.53× | 58.47 |
| 3-3 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.71× | 58.48 |
| 3-4 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.57× | 58.49 |
| 4-0 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.05× | 58.48 |
| 4-1 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.86× | 58.48 |
| 4-2 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.25× | 58.48 |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.28× | 58.49 |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 13.70× | 58.49 |
| Any other score | 3.9% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.57× | 58.47 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves leading at HT (DNB) | 62.4% | 65.8% | 62.3% | 1.06× | 1.52 |
| Atletico Madrid leading at HT (DNB) | 37.6% | 34.2% | 37.7% | 0.91× | 2.93 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves or Atletico Madrid (12) | 76.3% | 75.5% | 74.9% | 1.01× | 1.32 |
| Alaves or draw (1X) | 72.4% | 72.1% | 71.9% | 1.00× | 1.39 |
| Atletico Madrid or draw (X2) | 51.3% | 52.5% | 53.1% | 0.99× | 1.90 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves or draw at HT | 78.4% | 79.9% | 78.6% | 1.02× | 1.25 |
| Atletico Madrid or draw at HT | 64.1% | 62.1% | 64.6% | 0.96× | 1.61 |
| Alaves or Atletico Madrid at HT | 57.5% | 56.9% | 56.7% | 1.00× | 1.76 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves or draw (1UP) | 72.4% | 80.1% | 78.2% | 1.02× | 1.25 |
| Atletico Madrid or draw (1UP) | 51.3% | 59.2% | 60.0% | 0.99× | 1.69 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves or draw in 2nd half | 73.3% | 73.7% | 72.3% | 1.02× | 1.36 |
| Alaves or Atletico Madrid in 2nd half | 67.5% | 65.5% | 67.0% | 0.98× | 1.53 |
| Atletico Madrid or draw in 2nd half | 59.2% | 59.0% | 60.6% | 0.97× | 1.69 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 61.2% | 61.5% | 62.3% | 0.99× | 1.63 |
| Neither half drawn | 38.8% | 38.5% | 37.7% | 1.02× | 2.60 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves (DNB) | 63.9% | 62.9% | 62.6% | 1.00× | 1.59 |
| Atletico Madrid (DNB) | 36.1% | 37.1% | 37.4% | 0.99× | 2.69 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves to score first | 55.1% | 61.8% | 55.4% | 1.11× | 1.62 |
| Atletico Madrid to score first | 39.7% | 33.0% | 39.5% | 0.83× | 3.03 |
| No goal scored | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 1.45× | 13.44 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 58.2% | 54.9% | 55.2% | 1.00× | 1.82 |
| Not both teams to score | 41.8% | 45.1% | 44.8% | 1.01× | 2.22 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 47.2% | 44.3% | 40.3% | 1.10× | 2.26 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 32.3% | 34.3% | 35.5% | 0.97× | 2.92 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 11.1% | 12.3% | 15.0% | 0.82× | 8.11 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 9.5% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 0.88× | 11.95 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 82.0% | 83.0% | 86.3% | 0.96× | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 18.0% | 17.0% | 13.7% | 1.23× | 5.90 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 65.4% | 67.5% | 71.5% | 0.94× | 1.48 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 34.6% | 32.5% | 28.5% | 1.14× | 3.08 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 53.3% | 56.0% | 60.3% | 0.93× | 1.79 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 28.2% | 26.5% | 23.0% | 1.15× | 3.77 |
| Both score 1st half only | 12.1% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 0.95× | 9.31 |
| Both score in both halves | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 1.20× | 14.79 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 81.5% | 82.3% | 83.2% | 0.99× | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 18.5% | 17.7% | 16.8% | 1.05× | 5.67 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 57.1% | 57.3% | 54.7% | 1.05× | 1.75 |
| A half without a goal | 42.9% | 42.7% | 45.3% | 0.94× | 2.34 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 45.1% | 47.4% | 49.8% | 0.95× | 2.11 |
| 4-6 goals | 31.1% | 30.7% | 23.3% | 1.32× | 3.25 |
| 0-1 goals | 20.6% | 22.8% | 24.8% | 0.92× | 4.39 |
| 7+ goals | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 0.82× | 54.48 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid to score exactly 1 | 35.9% | 36.0% | 38.0% | 0.95× | 2.78 |
| Atletico Madrid to score exactly 0 | 29.0% | 27.4% | 30.3% | 0.90× | 3.65 |
| Atletico Madrid to score exactly 2 | 22.2% | 22.4% | 22.1% | 1.01× | 4.46 |
| Atletico Madrid to score 3+ | 12.8% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 1.30× | 7.80 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves to score exactly 1 | 30.8% | 32.6% | 38.3% | 0.85× | 3.06 |
| Alaves to score exactly 2 | 26.5% | 26.5% | 22.6% | 1.17× | 3.77 |
| Alaves to score 3+ | 24.8% | 23.3% | 19.7% | 1.18× | 4.30 |
| Alaves to score exactly 0 | 17.9% | 18.9% | 19.6% | 0.96× | 5.29 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 42.5% | 43.1% | 43.3% | 1.00× | 2.32 |
| Alaves leading at HT | 35.9% | 37.9% | 35.4% | 1.07× | 2.64 |
| Atletico Madrid leading at HT | 21.6% | 20.1% | 21.4% | 0.94× | 4.98 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves -1: 2 | 51.3% | 52.0% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Alaves -1: 1 | 26.2% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| Alaves -1: X | 22.5% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.24 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid (0:1) | 51.3% | 51.1% | 53.1% | 0.96× | 1.96 |
| Alaves (0:1) | 26.2% | 27.0% | 20.8% | 1.29× | 3.71 |
| Draw (0:1) | 22.5% | 24.3% | 26.2% | 0.93× | 4.12 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid (0:2) | 73.8% | 75.7% | 79.2% | 0.96× | 1.32 |
| Draw (0:2) | 14.8% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 1.00× | 9.11 |
| Alaves (0:2) | 11.4% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 1.10× | 9.13 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid (0:3) | 88.6% | 90.8% | 90.0% | 1.01× | 1.10 |
| Draw (0:3) | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 0.82× | 17.16 |
| Alaves (0:3) | 4.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 0.79× | 42.08 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid (0:4) | 95.9% | 98.1% | 97.0% | 1.01× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 2.9% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.51× | 83.35 |
| Alaves (0:4) | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.60× | 83.54 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves (1:0) | 72.4% | 72.5% | 71.9% | 1.01× | 1.38 |
| Draw (1:0) | 16.2% | 17.0% | 17.6% | 0.97× | 5.87 |
| Atletico Madrid (1:0) | 11.4% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 1.21× | 7.81 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves (2:0) | 88.6% | 88.4% | 89.4% | 0.99× | 1.13 |
| Draw (2:0) | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 0.94× | 15.48 |
| Atletico Madrid (2:0) | 3.7% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 0.59× | 44.13 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 52.5% | 50.3% | 51.3% | 0.98× | 1.99 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 24.3% | 24.1% | 26.4% | 0.91× | 4.14 |
| Halves equal | 23.1% | 24.1% | 22.4% | 1.08× | 4.15 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves to concede | 71.0% | 73.0% | 69.7% | 1.05× | 1.37 |
| Alaves clean sheet | 29.0% | 27.0% | 30.3% | 0.89× | 3.71 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves clean sheet in 1st half | 62.8% | 64.2% | 63.5% | 1.01× | 1.56 |
| Alaves to concede in 1st half | 37.2% | 35.8% | 36.5% | 0.98× | 2.79 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves over 2.5 corners | 81.0% | 80.9% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Alaves under 6.5 corners | 75.1% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Alaves over 3.5 corners | 66.5% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Alaves under 5.5 corners | 63.3% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Alaves over 4.5 corners | 50.9% | 52.8% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Alaves under 4.5 corners | 49.1% | 47.2% | — | — | 2.12 |
| Alaves over 5.5 corners | 36.7% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Alaves under 3.5 corners | 33.5% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.00 |
| Alaves over 6.5 corners | 24.9% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
| Alaves under 2.5 corners | 19.0% | 19.1% | — | — | 5.25 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves under 3.5 goals | 90.4% | 92.2% | 92.6% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| Alaves over 0.5 goals | 82.1% | 82.1% | 80.4% | 1.02× | 1.22 |
| Alaves under 2.5 goals | 75.2% | 77.7% | 80.3% | 0.97× | 1.29 |
| Alaves over 1.5 goals | 51.2% | 53.2% | 42.2% | 1.26× | 1.88 |
| Alaves under 1.5 goals | 48.8% | 46.8% | 57.8% | 0.81× | 2.14 |
| Alaves over 2.5 goals | 24.8% | 22.3% | 19.7% | 1.13× | 4.49 |
| Alaves under 0.5 goals | 17.9% | 17.9% | 19.6% | 0.91× | 5.59 |
| Alaves over 3.5 goals | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 1.05× | 12.89 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves under 1.5 in 1st half | 84.8% | 84.4% | 86.0% | 0.98× | 1.19 |
| Alaves over 0.5 in 1st half | 49.7% | 51.0% | 48.1% | 1.06× | 1.96 |
| Alaves under 0.5 in 1st half | 50.3% | 49.0% | 51.9% | 0.94× | 2.04 |
| Alaves over 1.5 in 1st half | 15.2% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 1.11× | 6.41 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid (home no bet) | 53.7% | 51.6% | 52.8% | 0.98× | 1.94 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 46.3% | 48.4% | 47.2% | 1.02× | 2.07 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves even goals | 51.6% | 50.6% | 47.4% | 1.07× | 1.98 |
| Alaves odd goals | 48.4% | 49.4% | 52.6% | 0.94× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 31.6% | 32.3% | 32.2% | 1.00× | 3.10 |
| HT 1-0 | 21.7% | 24.1% | 22.7% | 1.06× | 4.15 |
| HT 0-1 | 14.7% | 11.0% | 16.3% | 0.67× | 9.13 |
| HT 1-1 | 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 1.07× | 9.18 |
| HT 2-0 | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 1.14× | 14.04 |
| Any other HT score | 4.4% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 0.51× | 43.29 |
| HT 2-1 | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 0.71× | 43.35 |
| HT 0-2 | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 0.77× | 43.36 |
| HT 1-2 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.53× | 43.44 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.83× | 43.55 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves at HT / Alaves at FT | 28.4% | 26.9% | 26.5% | 1.01× | 3.72 |
| Draw at HT / Alaves at FT | 17.4% | 16.8% | 18.0% | 0.93× | 5.97 |
| Atletico Madrid at HT / Atletico Madrid at FT | 14.0% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 0.99× | 7.88 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 13.8% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 0.91× | 7.88 |
| Draw at HT / Atletico Madrid at FT | 11.3% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 1.10× | 7.90 |
| Alaves at HT / Draw at FT | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 1.16× | 16.73 |
| Atletico Madrid at HT / Draw at FT | 4.7% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 0.57× | 28.78 |
| Atletico Madrid at HT / Alaves at FT | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.26× | 28.85 |
| Alaves at HT / Atletico Madrid at FT | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 0.86× | 28.88 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves to score last | 55.1% | 56.4% | 55.8% | 1.01× | 1.78 |
| Atletico Madrid to score last | 39.7% | 38.7% | 39.2% | 0.99× | 2.59 |
| No goal scored | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 1.45× | 13.44 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 94.8% | 92.7% | 94.9% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| Alaves to lead by 1 at any time | 64.5% | 61.4% | 63.2% | 0.97× | 1.63 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 50.3% | 50.6% | 41.6% | 1.22× | 1.98 |
| Atletico Madrid to lead by 1 at any time | 46.4% | 44.0% | 47.1% | 0.93× | 2.27 |
| Alaves to lead by 2 at any time | 33.4% | 29.4% | 26.5% | 1.11× | 3.40 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 19.3% | 15.0% | 16.8% | 0.89× | 6.69 |
| Atletico Madrid to lead by 2 at any time | 17.3% | 14.9% | 15.4% | 0.97× | 6.71 |
| Alaves to lead by 3 at any time | 14.0% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 0.86× | 9.52 |
| Atletico Madrid to lead by 3 at any time | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 1.42× | 15.17 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid most corners | 50.9% | 51.9% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Alaves most corners | 38.7% | 39.4% | — | — | 2.54 |
| Corners level | 10.4% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.61 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 86.9% | 87.4% | 89.1% | 0.98× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 77.1% | 78.6% | 81.3% | 0.97× | 1.27 |
| 2-6 goals | 76.3% | 78.6% | 73.0% | 1.08× | 1.27 |
| 2-5 goals | 71.5% | 72.4% | 69.4% | 1.04× | 1.38 |
| 2-4 goals | 61.7% | 63.4% | 61.5% | 1.03× | 1.58 |
| 1-3 goals | 60.5% | 63.4% | 69.5% | 0.91× | 1.58 |
| 3-6 goals | 53.5% | 53.2% | 47.6% | 1.12× | 1.88 |
| 3-5 goals | 48.7% | 48.7% | 43.9% | 1.11× | 2.06 |
| 2-3 goals | 45.1% | 48.7% | 49.8% | 0.98× | 2.06 |
| 3-4 goals | 38.9% | 39.2% | 36.1% | 1.09× | 2.55 |
| 1-2 goals | 38.1% | 39.2% | 45.3% | 0.86× | 2.55 |
| 4-6 goals | 31.1% | 35.4% | 23.3% | 1.51× | 2.83 |
| 4-5 goals | 26.3% | 30.2% | 19.7% | 1.53× | 3.31 |
| 5-6 goals | 14.6% | 14.9% | 11.6% | 1.28× | 6.72 |
| 7+ goals | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.14× | 39.19 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves never behind | 48.4% | 56.6% | 52.9% | 1.07× | 1.77 |
| Atletico Madrid never behind | 30.3% | 35.5% | 36.8% | 0.97× | 2.82 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.9% | 50.8% | 53.7% | 0.95× | 1.97 |
| Even number of goals | 50.1% | 49.2% | 46.3% | 1.06× | 2.03 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 55.0% | 51.7% | 53.6% | 0.97× | 1.93 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 45.0% | 48.3% | 46.4% | 1.04× | 2.07 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 51.4% | 52.1% | 49.8% | 1.04× | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 48.6% | 48.0% | 50.2% | 0.96× | 2.09 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94.8% | 92.3% | 94.9% | 0.97× | 1.08 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 92.1% | 92.3% | 94.1% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 82.3% | 82.4% | 86.3% | 0.95× | 1.21 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | 77.4% | 75.2% | 1.03× | 1.29 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65.7% | 66.2% | 74.5% | 0.89× | 1.51 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | 58.8% | 49.7% | 1.18× | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.3% | 41.2% | 50.3% | 0.82× | 2.43 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.3% | 33.8% | 25.5% | 1.33× | 2.96 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.6% | 22.6% | 24.8% | 0.91× | 4.42 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 17.7% | 17.6% | 13.7% | 1.28× | 5.68 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 1.32× | 12.92 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 5.2% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 1.51× | 12.93 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 96.7% | 97.2% | 97.7% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 91.2% | 92.5% | 93.6% | 0.99× | 1.08 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 78.8% | 75.9% | 84.4% | 0.90× | 1.32 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 73.3% | 72.6% | 66.7% | 1.09× | 1.38 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 55.9% | 55.4% | 66.4% | 0.83× | 1.80 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 44.1% | 44.6% | 33.6% | 1.33× | 2.24 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 26.7% | 27.4% | 33.3% | 0.82× | 3.65 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 21.2% | 24.1% | 15.6% | 1.55× | 4.16 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 1.19× | 13.25 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.19× | 36.13 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 88.9% | 89.0% | 89.9% | 0.99× | 1.12 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 68.4% | 69.0% | 67.8% | 1.02× | 1.45 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 68.0% | 69.0% | 70.8% | 0.97× | 1.45 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 32.0% | 31.0% | 29.2% | 1.06× | 3.23 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 31.6% | 31.0% | 32.2% | 0.96× | 3.23 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 11.1% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 1.08× | 9.12 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 83.5% | 82.9% | 81.7% | 1.01× | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 73.0% | 77.7% | 79.7% | 0.97× | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 53.8% | 53.2% | 46.3% | 1.15× | 1.88 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 46.2% | 46.8% | 53.7% | 0.87× | 2.14 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 27.0% | 22.3% | 20.3% | 1.10× | 4.49 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 16.5% | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.94× | 5.83 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid not to score in both halves | 80.0% | 78.3% | 81.5% | 0.96× | 1.28 |
| Alaves not to score in both halves | 68.0% | 70.5% | 73.6% | 0.96× | 1.42 |
| Alaves to score in both halves | 32.0% | 29.5% | 26.4% | 1.12× | 3.39 |
| Atletico Madrid to score in both halves | 20.0% | 21.7% | 18.5% | 1.17× | 4.62 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 58.2% | 58.4% | 55.2% | 1.06× | 1.71 |
| Only Alaves scores | 23.8% | 22.3% | 25.3% | 0.88× | 4.48 |
| Only Atletico Madrid scores | 12.7% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 0.75× | 9.14 |
| Neither team scores | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 1.40× | 13.93 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 22.7% | 22.6% | 25.6% | 0.88× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.4% | 22.6% | 24.3% | 0.93× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 16.5% | 17.4% | 11.9% | 1.47× | 5.74 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 15.4% | 17.4% | 19.9% | 0.88× | 5.74 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 9.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 0.96× | 13.08 |
| 6 or more goals | 7.9% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 1.30× | 13.08 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 5.2% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 1.49× | 13.09 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 53.8% | 51.5% | 46.3% | 1.11× | 1.94 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 29.7% | 29.9% | 35.5% | 0.84× | 3.35 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 16.5% | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.94× | 5.84 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid not to win both halves | 94.2% | 94.0% | 94.6% | 0.99× | 1.06 |
| Alaves not to win both halves | 85.3% | 87.8% | 88.1% | 1.00× | 1.14 |
| Alaves to win both halves | 14.7% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 1.03× | 8.21 |
| Atletico Madrid to win both halves | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 1.12× | 16.65 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves to win either half | 62.1% | 65.0% | 63.0% | 1.03× | 1.54 |
| Atletico Madrid to win neither half | 57.5% | 59.5% | 56.3% | 1.06× | 1.68 |
| Atletico Madrid to win either half | 42.5% | 40.5% | 43.7% | 0.93× | 2.47 |
| Alaves to win neither half | 37.9% | 35.0% | 37.0% | 0.94× | 2.86 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid not to win to nil | 87.3% | 88.2% | 85.4% | 1.03× | 1.13 |
| Alaves not to win to nil | 76.2% | 78.0% | 74.7% | 1.05× | 1.28 |
| Alaves to win to nil | 23.8% | 22.0% | 25.3% | 0.87× | 4.55 |
| Atletico Madrid to win to nil | 12.7% | 11.8% | 14.6% | 0.81× | 8.49 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 23.7% | 24.2% | 25.1% | 0.96× | 4.14 |
| Alaves by 1 | 22.5% | 24.1% | 26.2% | 0.92× | 4.14 |
| Atletico Madrid by 1 | 16.2% | 16.9% | 17.6% | 0.96× | 5.91 |
| Alaves by 2 | 14.8% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 1.07× | 8.47 |
| Alaves by 3+ | 11.4% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 1.18× | 8.48 |
| Atletico Madrid by 2 | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 1.06× | 13.78 |
| Atletico Madrid by 3+ | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 0.70× | 36.96 |