Alaves v Osasuna — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Alaves

12:30

Osasuna

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 9h before kick-off

Alaves win

44.6%

model 45.0%

Draw

27.7%

model 26.4%

Osasuna win

27.7%

model 28.6%

452828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.5%
1-0 11.5%
2-1 9.0%
0-1 8.7%
2-0 8.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	46.1%	Under 2.5	53.9%
BTTS yes	50.5%	BTTS no	49.5%
Alaves 1+	76.1%	Alaves 2+	42.0%
Osasuna 1+	66.3%	Osasuna 2+	29.6%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.09. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

97/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Osasuna or draw in 2nd half

Double chance 2HT · usually 61%

66.1% fair odds 1.51

moderate signal · 1585 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Osasuna not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 82%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Alaves carry the stronger rating, 1518 Elo against 1491.
Alaves have created 1.55 xG a match over their last five while Osasuna have allowed 1.16.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Alaves average 1.30 xG a match.
They have had 9 days' rest to Osasuna's 6.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Alaves have an estimated 44.6% win probability, against 27.7% for Osasuna and 27.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.43 for Alaves and 1.09 for Osasuna.

Why Alaves

Alaves carry the stronger rating, 1518 Elo against 1491. Alaves have created 1.55 xG a match over their last five while Osasuna have allowed 1.16. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Alaves average 1.30 xG a match. They have had 9 days' rest to Osasuna's 6.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.7%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Osasuna can win

Osasuna have created 1.49 xG a match over their last five while Alaves have allowed 0.96. Away from home Osasuna average 1.24 xG a match.

Key players

Alaves's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Antonio Martínez (0.51), Lucas Boyé (0.43), Ibrahim Diabate (0.27). Osasuna's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ante Budimir (0.57), Víctor Muñoz (0.27), Rubén García (0.21).

Availability

1 of Alaves's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Osasuna's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Alaves: 41% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces. Osasuna: 51% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 8.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Alaves are the model's most likely outcome at 44.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Confidence 97/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Alaves have scored 14 from 15.5 expected and conceded 11 from 9.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWLDWWLWDW last 10 scored 14 from 15.5 xG conceded 11 from 9.6 xG

Osasuna are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LWLLLLLDWW last 10 scored 10 from 14.9 xG conceded 13 from 11.6 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	452629	1.43–1.09	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	422632	1.44–1.23	1-1 12%	50%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to win	48.1%	47.5%	47.0%	1.01×	2.11
Osasuna to win	26.0%	27.9%	28.1%	0.99×	3.59
Draw	25.9%	27.9%	25.0%	1.11×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves & not both score	27.7%	25.2%	25.5%	0.99×	3.97
Alaves & both teams score	20.4%	21.9%	21.6%	1.01×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	18.0%	17.9%	20.1%	0.89×	5.58
Osasuna & not both score	14.3%	13.3%	14.6%	0.91×	7.55
Osasuna & both teams score	11.7%	13.2%	13.6%	0.98×	7.55
Draw & not both score	7.9%	8.4%	5.0%	1.66×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves & over 1.5	36.2%	34.9%	34.2%	1.02×	2.86
Alaves & under 3.5	34.6%	30.9%	33.3%	0.93×	3.24
Alaves & over 2.5	27.3%	26.0%	28.1%	0.93×	3.84
Alaves & under 2.5	20.8%	21.6%	19.1%	1.13×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	20.2%	21.6%	19.9%	1.09×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	20.2%	21.6%	19.9%	1.09×	4.62
Osasuna & under 3.5	20.2%	21.6%	21.9%	0.99×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	18.0%	18.0%	20.1%	0.89×	5.56
Osasuna & over 1.5	17.9%	18.0%	21.0%	0.86×	5.56
Alaves & over 3.5	13.5%	12.9%	13.8%	0.93×	7.77
Osasuna & over 2.5	13.6%	12.9%	16.5%	0.78×	7.77
Osasuna & under 2.5	12.4%	12.9%	11.7%	1.10×	7.78
Alaves & under 1.5	11.9%	12.9%	13.0%	0.99×	7.78
Draw & under 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	5.0%	1.57×	12.69
Osasuna & under 1.5	8.2%	7.9%	7.2%	1.10×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	5.7%	7.9%	5.3%	1.49×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	5.7%	7.9%	5.3%	1.49×	12.69
Osasuna & over 3.5	5.8%	7.9%	6.3%	1.25×	12.69

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (1UP)	62.1%	63.1%	63.4%	1.00×	1.58
Osasuna (1UP)	42.7%	38.8%	47.0%	0.83×	2.58

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (2UP)	48.1%	49.9%	48.9%	1.02×	2.00
Osasuna (2UP)	26.0%	24.5%	29.7%	0.82×	4.08

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to win 2nd half	38.1%	36.1%	39.4%	0.92×	2.77
2nd half drawn	34.8%	34.5%	33.0%	1.05×	2.90
Osasuna to win 2nd half	27.1%	26.3%	27.7%	0.95×	3.81

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (+2.5)	90.3%	92.1%	90.1%	1.02×	1.09
Osasuna (+1.5)	75.8%	78.5%	79.1%	0.99×	1.28
Alaves (+0.5)	74.0%	73.7%	72.0%	1.02×	1.36
Osasuna (+0.5)	51.9%	52.3%	53.0%	0.99×	1.91
Alaves (-0.5)	48.1%	47.7%	47.0%	1.01×	2.10
Osasuna (-0.5)	26.0%	26.3%	28.1%	0.94×	3.80
Alaves (-1.5)	24.2%	21.5%	20.9%	1.03×	4.64
Alaves (-2.5)	9.7%	7.9%	9.9%	0.80×	12.65

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna to concede	77.8%	79.0%	80.5%	0.98×	1.27
Osasuna clean sheet	22.2%	21.0%	19.5%	1.08×	4.76

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna clean sheet in 1st half	55.0%	57.6%	51.9%	1.11×	1.74
Osasuna to concede in 1st half	45.0%	42.4%	48.1%	0.88×	2.36

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna under 6.5 corners	84.3%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Osasuna under 5.5 corners	74.4%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Osasuna over 2.5 corners	73.0%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Osasuna under 4.5 corners	60.9%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Osasuna over 3.5 corners	55.6%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Osasuna under 3.5 corners	44.4%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Osasuna over 4.5 corners	39.1%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Osasuna under 2.5 corners	27.0%	27.7%	—	—	3.62
Osasuna over 5.5 corners	25.6%	27.7%	—	—	3.62
Osasuna over 6.5 corners	15.7%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna under 3.5 goals	97.9%	97.6%	97.4%	1.00×	1.03
Osasuna under 2.5 goals	91.3%	92.3%	90.3%	1.02×	1.08
Osasuna under 1.5 goals	72.3%	71.9%	68.4%	1.05×	1.39
Osasuna over 0.5 goals	64.4%	63.0%	69.6%	0.91×	1.59
Osasuna under 0.5 goals	35.6%	37.0%	30.4%	1.22×	2.70
Osasuna over 1.5 goals	27.7%	28.1%	31.6%	0.89×	3.56
Osasuna over 2.5 goals	8.7%	7.7%	9.7%	0.79×	13.06
Osasuna over 3.5 goals	2.1%	2.4%	2.6%	0.92×	41.09

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna under 1.5 in 1st half	95.8%	95.6%	93.6%	1.02×	1.05
Osasuna under 0.5 in 1st half	72.6%	69.4%	63.6%	1.09×	1.44
Osasuna over 0.5 in 1st half	27.4%	30.6%	36.4%	0.84×	3.27
Osasuna over 1.5 in 1st half	4.2%	4.4%	6.4%	0.68×	22.81

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (away no bet)	65.0%	66.4%	65.3%	1.02×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	35.0%	33.6%	34.7%	0.97×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna even goals	56.3%	56.9%	54.1%	1.05×	1.76
Osasuna odd goals	43.7%	43.1%	45.9%	0.94×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.7%	88.0%	87.2%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.3%	12.0%	12.8%	0.93×	8.34

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	60.3%	57.6%	62.3%	0.92×	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	39.7%	42.4%	37.7%	1.13×	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	52.4%	51.2%	52.3%	0.98×	1.95
Alaves to score 2+ in a row	37.0%	36.3%	34.3%	1.06×	2.76
Osasuna to score 2+ in a row	20.4%	19.3%	23.6%	0.82×	5.19
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.0%	16.4%	18.9%	0.87×	6.09
Alaves to score 3+ in a row	13.3%	12.0%	13.1%	0.92×	8.32
Osasuna to score 3+ in a row	4.9%	2.7%	6.3%	0.43×	37.16

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves corners (+3.5)	91.7%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Alaves corners (+2.5)	86.7%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Alaves corners (+1.5)	79.9%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Osasuna corners (+3.5)	70.1%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Osasuna corners (+2.5)	60.4%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Alaves corners (-1.5)	50.3%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Osasuna corners (+1.5)	49.7%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Alaves corners (-2.5)	39.6%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Alaves corners (-3.5)	29.9%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Osasuna corners (-1.5)	20.1%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Osasuna corners (-2.5)	13.3%	15.8%	—	—	6.32
Osasuna corners (-3.5)	8.3%	11.4%	—	—	8.81

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	38.7%	35.2%	—	—	2.85
12+ corners	31.2%	32.0%	—	—	3.13
9-11 corners	30.0%	32.0%	—	—	3.13

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	76.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	71.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	68.8%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Over 8.5 corners	61.3%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 10.5 corners	59.6%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	50.6%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Under 9.5 corners	49.4%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Over 10.5 corners	40.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	38.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 11.5 corners	31.2%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Under 7.5 corners	28.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	23.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.28

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	11.9%	11.5%	13.0%	0.88×	8.73
1-1	12.3%	11.5%	15.0%	0.77×	8.73
2-0	8.9%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.46
2-1	9.2%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.46
0-0	7.9%	7.4%	5.0%	1.48×	13.46
0-1	8.2%	7.4%	7.2%	1.04×	13.46
1-2	6.4%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.46
2-2	4.8%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.56
0-2	4.2%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	58.57
0-3	1.5%	1.7%	2.0%	0.85×	58.58
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.94×	58.59
1-3	2.2%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.58
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.39×	58.59
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.0%	0.85×	58.58
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.5%	3.39×	58.59
3-0	4.5%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	58.57
3-1	4.6%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.57
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	3.1%	0.54×	58.58
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.0%	1.70×	58.59
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.4%	4.52×	58.59
4-0	1.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.58
4-1	1.7%	1.7%	2.0%	0.85×	58.58
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	1.4%	1.23×	58.59
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.26×	58.59
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.57×	58.59
Any other score	2.3%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.58

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves leading at HT (DNB)	68.3%	73.6%	62.4%	1.18×	1.36
Osasuna leading at HT (DNB)	31.7%	26.4%	37.6%	0.70×	3.79

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves or Osasuna (12)	74.1%	72.1%	75.0%	0.96×	1.39
Alaves or draw (1X)	74.0%	72.1%	72.0%	1.00×	1.39
Osasuna or draw (X2)	51.9%	52.5%	53.0%	0.99×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves or draw at HT	83.5%	84.2%	78.6%	1.07×	1.19
Osasuna or draw at HT	64.4%	62.2%	64.5%	0.97×	1.61
Alaves or Osasuna at HT	52.0%	47.5%	56.8%	0.84×	2.11

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves or draw (1UP)	74.0%	80.1%	78.2%	1.02×	1.25
Osasuna or draw (1UP)	51.9%	58.7%	59.8%	0.98×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves or draw in 2nd half	72.9%	73.7%	72.3%	1.02×	1.36
Alaves or Osasuna in 2nd half	65.2%	65.5%	67.0%	0.98×	1.53
Osasuna or draw in 2nd half	61.9%	63.9%	60.6%	1.05×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.1%	69.7%	62.3%	1.12×	1.43
Neither half drawn	33.9%	30.3%	37.7%	0.80×	3.30

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (DNB)	64.9%	62.9%	62.6%	1.00×	1.59
Osasuna (DNB)	35.1%	37.1%	37.4%	0.99×	2.70

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to score first	54.6%	54.3%	55.7%	0.98×	1.84
Osasuna to score first	37.5%	32.5%	39.4%	0.82×	3.08
No goal scored	7.9%	7.4%	5.0%	1.47×	13.50

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.1%	51.4%	55.1%	0.93×	1.94
Not both teams to score	49.9%	48.6%	44.9%	1.08×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	41.1%	41.5%	35.6%	1.17×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	37.8%	38.5%	40.3%	0.96×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.3%	12.3%	15.0%	0.82×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	8.8%	8.4%	9.4%	0.89×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.7%	85.7%	86.5%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.3%	14.3%	13.5%	1.06×	6.98

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.6%	67.8%	71.5%	0.95×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.4%	32.2%	28.5%	1.13×	3.10

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	61.0%	66.5%	60.5%	1.10×	1.50
Both score 2nd half only	26.7%	26.0%	23.0%	1.13×	3.85
Both score 1st half only	8.6%	6.7%	11.2%	0.60×	14.86
Both score in both halves	3.7%	5.0%	5.5%	0.89×	20.17

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	87.7%	85.6%	83.4%	1.03×	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	12.3%	14.4%	16.6%	0.87×	6.93

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	51.8%	53.3%	45.3%	1.18×	1.88
A goal in each half	48.2%	46.7%	54.7%	0.85×	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.0%	47.4%	50.1%	0.95×	2.11
0-1 goals	28.0%	26.4%	24.9%	1.06×	3.78
4-6 goals	23.5%	22.8%	23.1%	0.99×	4.38
7+ goals	1.5%	1.8%	2.1%	0.85×	55.28

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	38.1%	0.94×	2.78
Osasuna to score exactly 0	35.6%	36.0%	30.4%	1.18×	2.78
Osasuna to score exactly 2	19.0%	19.6%	22.0%	0.89×	5.12
Osasuna to score 3+	8.7%	8.5%	9.7%	0.88×	11.78

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to score exactly 1	33.4%	32.6%	38.5%	0.85×	3.06
Alaves to score exactly 2	25.1%	26.5%	22.6%	1.17×	3.77
Alaves to score exactly 0	22.2%	23.3%	19.5%	1.19×	4.30
Alaves to score 3+	19.2%	18.9%	19.6%	0.96×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	48.0%	52.5%	43.2%	1.22×	1.90
Alaves leading at HT	35.6%	37.8%	35.5%	1.06×	2.65
Osasuna leading at HT	16.5%	15.8%	21.4%	0.74×	6.33

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves -1: 2	51.9%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Alaves -1: 1	24.2%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Alaves -1: X	23.9%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (0:1)	51.9%	51.2%	53.0%	0.97×	1.96
Alaves (0:1)	24.2%	24.3%	20.9%	1.16×	4.11
Draw (0:1)	23.9%	24.3%	26.3%	0.92×	4.11

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (0:2)	75.8%	79.4%	79.1%	1.00×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	14.6%	11.0%	11.1%	1.00×	9.07
Alaves (0:2)	9.7%	7.7%	9.9%	0.78×	12.96

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (0:3)	90.3%	92.6%	90.1%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.5%	5.8%	7.0%	0.82×	17.25
Alaves (0:3)	3.1%	2.4%	3.0%	0.79×	42.00

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (0:4)	96.9%	98.1%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.3%	1.2%	2.4%	0.50×	83.21
Alaves (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	0.8%	1.59×	83.38

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (1:0)	74.0%	72.6%	72.0%	1.01×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	16.4%	17.0%	17.6%	0.97×	5.87
Osasuna (1:0)	9.6%	6.9%	10.6%	0.66×	14.45

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves (2:0)	90.4%	93.9%	89.4%	1.05×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	6.9%	6.5%	6.9%	0.93×	15.49
Osasuna (2:0)	2.7%	2.3%	3.8%	0.60×	44.24

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	53.9%	50.4%	51.3%	0.98×	1.99
Halves equal	24.8%	24.3%	22.4%	1.08×	4.12
1st half highest scoring	21.3%	24.2%	26.4%	0.91×	4.13

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to concede	64.4%	63.4%	69.6%	0.91×	1.58
Alaves clean sheet	35.6%	36.6%	30.4%	1.20×	2.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves clean sheet in 1st half	72.6%	68.6%	63.6%	1.08×	1.46
Alaves to concede in 1st half	27.4%	31.4%	36.4%	0.86×	3.19

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves over 2.5 corners	87.4%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Alaves over 3.5 corners	76.1%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Alaves under 6.5 corners	64.0%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Alaves over 4.5 corners	62.6%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Alaves under 5.5 corners	51.3%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Alaves over 5.5 corners	48.7%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Alaves under 4.5 corners	37.4%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Alaves over 6.5 corners	36.0%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Alaves under 3.5 corners	23.9%	23.9%	—	—	4.19
Alaves under 2.5 corners	12.6%	14.8%	—	—	6.76

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves under 3.5 goals	93.4%	92.2%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
Alaves under 2.5 goals	80.8%	82.1%	80.4%	1.02×	1.22
Alaves over 0.5 goals	77.8%	77.7%	80.5%	0.97×	1.29
Alaves under 1.5 goals	55.7%	58.8%	57.9%	1.02×	1.70
Alaves over 1.5 goals	44.3%	41.2%	42.1%	0.98×	2.43
Alaves under 0.5 goals	22.2%	22.3%	19.5%	1.14×	4.48
Alaves over 2.5 goals	19.2%	17.9%	19.6%	0.91×	5.60
Alaves over 3.5 goals	6.6%	7.8%	7.3%	1.06×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves under 1.5 in 1st half	87.9%	90.0%	86.1%	1.04×	1.11
Alaves under 0.5 in 1st half	55.0%	57.2%	51.9%	1.10×	1.75
Alaves over 0.5 in 1st half	45.0%	42.8%	48.1%	0.89×	2.33
Alaves over 1.5 in 1st half	12.1%	10.0%	13.9%	0.72×	9.97

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna (home no bet)	50.1%	51.5%	52.8%	0.98×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	49.9%	48.5%	47.2%	1.03×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves even goals	52.5%	50.6%	47.4%	1.07×	1.97
Alaves odd goals	47.5%	49.4%	52.6%	0.94×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	40.0%	38.8%	32.1%	1.21×	2.57
HT 1-0	23.9%	24.3%	22.8%	1.06×	4.12
HT 0-1	12.8%	11.1%	16.4%	0.68×	9.04
HT 1-1	7.6%	7.1%	10.2%	0.70×	14.10
HT 2-0	7.1%	7.1%	6.3%	1.13×	14.11
Any other HT score	2.7%	2.2%	4.5%	0.49×	44.73
HT 2-1	2.3%	2.2%	3.1%	0.71×	44.76
HT 0-2	2.0%	2.2%	2.9%	0.77×	44.78
HT 1-2	1.2%	2.2%	1.5%	1.48×	44.84
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.2%	1.1%	1.96×	44.91

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves at HT / Alaves at FT	27.8%	26.7%	26.6%	1.00×	3.75
Draw at HT / Alaves at FT	18.3%	16.8%	18.0%	0.93×	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.7%	16.8%	13.9%	1.21×	5.95
Draw at HT / Osasuna at FT	13.0%	12.7%	11.6%	1.09×	7.89
Osasuna at HT / Osasuna at FT	10.8%	12.7%	12.7%	0.99×	7.91
Alaves at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	5.2%	1.16×	16.63
Osasuna at HT / Draw at FT	3.7%	3.4%	6.2%	0.56×	29.14
Alaves at HT / Osasuna at FT	2.2%	3.4%	4.0%	0.85×	29.20
Osasuna at HT / Alaves at FT	2.0%	3.4%	2.8%	1.24×	29.20

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves to score last	54.6%	52.0%	55.8%	0.93×	1.92
Osasuna to score last	37.5%	38.3%	39.3%	0.97×	2.61
No goal scored	7.9%	7.4%	5.0%	1.47×	13.50

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.1%	92.7%	95.0%	0.98×	1.08
Alaves to lead by 1 at any time	62.1%	61.4%	63.4%	0.97×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.1%	39.1%	41.6%	0.94×	2.56
Osasuna to lead by 1 at any time	42.7%	39.0%	47.0%	0.83×	2.56
Alaves to lead by 2 at any time	30.0%	29.4%	26.6%	1.10×	3.41
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.3%	14.9%	16.6%	0.90×	6.72
Osasuna to lead by 2 at any time	14.2%	10.5%	15.4%	0.68×	9.53
Alaves to lead by 3 at any time	11.6%	10.4%	12.2%	0.85×	9.58
Osasuna to lead by 3 at any time	3.8%	1.6%	4.5%	0.36×	62.07

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves most corners	61.1%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
Osasuna most corners	28.8%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Corners level	10.1%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.4%	89.3%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.7%	83.5%	81.8%	1.02×	1.20
2-6 goals	70.5%	72.4%	73.1%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	67.6%	69.0%	69.4%	0.99×	1.45
1-3 goals	67.1%	69.0%	69.9%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.6%	63.5%	61.9%	1.03×	1.58
2-3 goals	47.0%	48.7%	50.1%	0.97×	2.06
1-2 goals	45.5%	48.7%	45.5%	1.07×	2.06
3-6 goals	45.0%	48.7%	47.5%	1.02×	2.06
3-5 goals	42.1%	43.6%	43.9%	0.99×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.2%	39.2%	36.4%	1.08×	2.55
4-6 goals	23.5%	24.5%	23.1%	1.06×	4.09
4-5 goals	20.6%	24.4%	19.5%	1.25×	4.09
5-6 goals	9.9%	8.8%	11.3%	0.77×	11.42
7+ goals	1.5%	2.5%	2.1%	1.18×	39.51

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alaves never behind	49.4%	57.3%	53.0%	1.08×	1.75
Osasuna never behind	30.0%	30.1%	36.7%	0.82×	3.32

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.8%	53.6%	0.95×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.2%	46.4%	1.06×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.0%	57.9%	53.4%	1.08×	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	42.0%	42.1%	46.6%	0.90×	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.0%	52.0%	49.7%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.0%	48.0%	50.3%	0.95×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.6%	95.5%	94.2%	1.01×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.1%	92.3%	95.0%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.6%	87.7%	86.7%	1.01×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	75.0%	72.6%	74.8%	0.97×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	72.0%	72.5%	75.1%	0.97×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	53.4%	52.4%	50.4%	1.04×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	46.6%	47.6%	49.6%	0.96×	2.10
Under 1.5 goals	28.0%	27.5%	24.9%	1.10×	3.64
Over 3.5 goals	25.0%	27.4%	25.2%	1.09×	3.64
Over 4.5 goals	11.4%	12.3%	13.3%	0.92×	8.12
Under 0.5 goals	7.9%	7.7%	5.0%	1.54×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	4.5%	4.5%	5.8%	0.78×	22.18

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.4%	97.3%	97.8%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.2%	97.2%	93.7%	1.04×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.8%	86.7%	84.9%	1.02×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	68.1%	67.3%	66.7%	1.01×	1.49
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	62.5%	62.1%	66.6%	0.93×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	37.5%	37.9%	33.4%	1.13×	2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	31.9%	32.7%	33.3%	0.98×	3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.2%	13.3%	15.1%	0.88×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.8%	2.8%	6.3%	0.44×	36.30
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.6%	2.7%	2.2%	1.24×	36.40

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.4%	92.9%	90.1%	1.03×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	76.6%	78.6%	71.0%	1.11×	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	60.0%	63.6%	67.9%	0.94×	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	40.0%	36.4%	32.1%	1.13×	2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half	23.4%	21.4%	29.0%	0.74×	4.68
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.6%	7.1%	10.0%	0.71×	14.14

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.2%	82.9%	81.7%	1.01×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.8%	79.9%	79.8%	1.00×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.9%	53.0%	53.8%	0.99×	1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.1%	47.0%	46.2%	1.02×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.2%	20.1%	20.2%	1.00×	4.99
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.8%	17.1%	18.3%	0.94×	5.83

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna not to score in both halves	86.0%	85.8%	81.6%	1.05×	1.17
Alaves not to score in both halves	73.2%	74.3%	73.7%	1.01×	1.35
Alaves to score in both halves	26.8%	25.7%	26.3%	0.98×	3.89
Osasuna to score in both halves	14.0%	14.2%	18.4%	0.77×	7.04

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	50.1%	53.9%	55.1%	0.98×	1.85
Only Alaves scores	27.7%	26.2%	25.5%	1.02×	3.82
Only Osasuna scores	14.3%	11.0%	14.6%	0.75×	9.13
Neither team scores	7.9%	7.2%	5.0%	1.43×	13.94

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.5%	25.0%	25.7%	0.97×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	21.5%	22.6%	24.5%	0.92×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	20.1%	22.6%	20.0%	1.13×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	13.7%	12.1%	12.0%	1.01×	8.29
Exactly 0 goals	7.9%	7.6%	5.0%	1.51×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	6.9%	7.6%	7.7%	0.99×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.5%	4.4%	5.8%	0.76×	22.60

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.1%	44.8%	46.2%	0.97×	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	32.1%	33.8%	35.6%	0.95×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	19.8%	17.0%	18.3%	0.93×	5.89

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna not to win both halves	95.5%	97.1%	94.7%	1.03×	1.03
Alaves not to win both halves	86.5%	88.0%	88.2%	1.00×	1.14
Alaves to win both halves	13.5%	12.0%	11.8%	1.01×	8.35
Osasuna to win both halves	4.5%	2.9%	5.3%	0.54×	34.87

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna to win neither half	60.9%	65.3%	56.2%	1.16×	1.53
Alaves to win either half	60.1%	65.2%	63.1%	1.03×	1.53
Alaves to win neither half	39.9%	34.8%	36.9%	0.94×	2.88
Osasuna to win either half	39.1%	34.7%	43.8%	0.79×	2.88

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Osasuna not to win to nil	85.7%	88.2%	85.4%	1.03×	1.13
Alaves not to win to nil	72.3%	75.3%	74.5%	1.01×	1.33
Alaves to win to nil	27.7%	24.7%	25.5%	0.97×	4.04
Osasuna to win to nil	14.3%	11.8%	14.6%	0.81×	8.47

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.9%	27.8%	25.0%	1.11×	3.59
Alaves by 1	23.9%	24.1%	26.3%	0.92×	4.14
Osasuna by 1	16.4%	16.9%	17.6%	0.96×	5.90
Alaves by 2	14.6%	11.8%	11.1%	1.07×	8.46
Alaves by 3+	9.7%	7.3%	9.9%	0.73×	13.79
Osasuna by 2	6.9%	7.2%	6.9%	1.05×	13.81
Osasuna by 3+	2.7%	2.7%	3.8%	0.72×	36.98