Alaves v Rayo Vallecano — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 March 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 11
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
8 – 4
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
1.22 – 0.16
Goals − xG
-1.60 – +1.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Alaves win
32.8%
Draw
28.3%
Rayo Vallecano win
38.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Alaves have scored 14 from 15.5 expected and conceded 11 from 9.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWLDWWLWDW last 10
scored 14
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.6 xG
Rayo Vallecano are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWDDWWLDL last 10
scored 16
from 16.6 xG
conceded 14
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.11–1.23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Alaves 1.60 xGRayo Vallecano 0.68 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Alaves attacking right
Rayo Vallecano attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Pathé Ciss | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Goal | Unai López |
| 5' |
 Alaves |
Santiago Mouriño | 0.39 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Alaves |
Joan Jordán | 0.74 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 31' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 33' |
Alaves |
Pau Cabanes De La Torre | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kike García |
| 39' |
Alaves |
Kike García | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jon Guridi |
| 39' |
Alaves |
Nahuel Tenaglia | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pau Cabanes De La Torre |
| 42' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 51' |
Alaves |
Jon Guridi | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Manuel Sánchez |
| 52' |
Alaves |
Kike García | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Manuel Sánchez |
| 54' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álvaro García |
| 54' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 57' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 60' |
Alaves |
Kike García | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nahuel Tenaglia |
| 61' |
Alaves |
Santiago Mouriño | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joan Jordán |
| 71' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Adrián Embarba | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 72' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pep Chavarría | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Pedro Díaz |
| 76' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Joan Jordán |
| 80' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Aridane Hernández | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Unai López |
| 82' |
Alaves |
Kike García | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Vicente |
| 87' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pathé Ciss |
| 92' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tomás Conechny |
Players
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Mouriño DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kike García FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 0.30 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Manuel Sánchez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Abdelkabir Abqar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Blanco DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Joan Jordán DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.74 | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| Jon Guridi AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Carles Aleñá AML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Pau Cabanes De La Torre AMR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Carlos Vicente Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Antonio Martínez Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Carlos Martín Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tomás Conechny Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Asier Villalibre Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pep Chavarría DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Aridane Hernández DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pathé Ciss DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pelayo Fernández DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Unai López DMC | 88 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| Álvaro García AML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.02 | 0.24 |
| Jorge De Frutos AMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Randy Nteka FW | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Óscar Trejo AMC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Pedro Díaz Sub | 33 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 0.30 |
| Alfonso Espino Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrián Embarba Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iván Balliu Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Isi Palazón Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |