Alaves v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 September 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 9
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
4 – 5
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.76 – 0.10
Goals − xG
+0.09 – +1.11
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Alaves win
42.5%
Draw
25.2%
Sevilla win
32.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Alaves are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDWWLWDWW last 10
scored 18
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.8 xG
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWLLWWLD last 10
scored 14
from 10.1 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.20–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–0.94 | 1-0 14% | 40% | 45% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Alaves 0.91 xGSevilla 0.89 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Alaves attacking right
Sevilla attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Sevilla |
Alfon | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Isaac Romero |
| 8' |
Sevilla |
Nianzou Kouassi | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 9' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 16' |
 Alaves |
Carlos Vicente | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 18' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 19' |
Alaves |
Facundo Garcés | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Carles Aleñá |
| 20' |
Sevilla |
Marcão | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Lucien Agoume |
| 36' |
Alaves |
Antonio Blanco | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Sevilla |
Batista Mendy | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucien Agoume |
| 46' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Sevilla |
José Ángel Carmona | 0.22 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ruben Vargas |
| 61' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 66' |
Sevilla |
Alexis Sánchez | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | José Ángel Carmona |
| 72' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nahuel Tenaglia |
| 79' |
Alaves |
Nahuel Tenaglia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Abderrahmane Rebbach |
| 92' |
Alaves |
Facundo Garcés | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Antonio Blanco |
Players
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Vicente FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Facundo Garcés DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Antonio Blanco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonny DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Moussa Diarra DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Denis Suárez MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Boyé FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jon Guridi MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Carles Aleñá FWL | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Martínez Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Pablo Ibáñez Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mariano Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Youssef Lekhedim Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Abderrahmane Rebbach Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batista Mendy MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Marcão DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Lucien Agoume MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.24 |
| César Azpilicueta DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Gabriel Suazo DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| José Ángel Carmona DMR | 88 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.33 |
| Isaac Romero FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Ruben Vargas AMC | 77 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 0.79 |
| Alexis Sánchez Sub | 77 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nianzou Kouassi DC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Alfon AMC | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Nemanja Gudelj Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Akor Adams Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juanlu Sanchez Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Peque Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |