América v Guadalajara — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · MEX-Liga MX · 2627

MEX-Liga MX results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

América

23:00

Guadalajara

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 307h before kick-off

América win

44.6%

model 44.6%

Draw

27.7%

model 27.6%

Guadalajara win

27.7%

model 27.8%

452828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.2%
1-0 9.4%
2-1 9.2%
2-0 8.0%
0-0 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.0%	Under 2.5	50.0%
BTTS yes	54.5%	BTTS no	45.5%
América 1+	78.1%	América 2+	44.9%
Guadalajara 1+	68.5%	Guadalajara 2+	32.1%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.15. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

39/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

1-4 goals

Multi goal · usually 76%

78.9% fair odds 1.27

moderate signal · 2095 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1227 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

América have an estimated 44.6% win probability, against 27.7% for Guadalajara and 27.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.52 for América and 1.15 for Guadalajara.

Why América

Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.7%. Draws run at 24% in this competition.

Why Guadalajara can win

Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for América, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Guadalajara, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

América: 56% possession, 20.6 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Guadalajara: 64% possession, 16.6 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

América are the model's most likely outcome at 44.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.2%. Confidence 39/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	452828	1.52–1.15	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	433027	1.29–0.98	1-1 14%	40%	46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América to win	42.6%	43.0%	47.1%	0.91×	2.32
Draw	30.4%	30.3%	23.8%	1.27×	3.30
Guadalajara to win	27.0%	27.9%	29.3%	0.95×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América & not both score	26.2%	25.2%	22.7%	1.11×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	18.9%	17.9%	17.4%	1.03×	5.58
América & both teams score	16.4%	17.9%	24.5%	0.73×	5.58
Guadalajara & not both score	16.0%	17.9%	11.7%	1.53×	5.58
Draw & not both score	11.5%	13.3%	6.6%	2.02×	7.55
Guadalajara & both teams score	11.0%	13.3%	17.8%	0.75×	7.55

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América & under 3.5	33.0%	30.9%	30.9%	1.00×	3.24
América & over 1.5	30.3%	30.9%	37.3%	0.83×	3.24
Draw & under 2.5	25.7%	26.0%	17.9%	1.45×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	25.7%	26.0%	17.9%	1.45×	3.84
América & over 2.5	21.7%	21.7%	30.4%	0.71×	4.62
Guadalajara & under 3.5	21.9%	21.7%	19.7%	1.10×	4.62
América & under 2.5	20.9%	21.7%	16.9%	1.28×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	18.9%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.56
Guadalajara & over 1.5	18.0%	18.0%	23.4%	0.77×	5.56
Guadalajara & under 2.5	13.9%	12.9%	9.6%	1.34×	7.77
Guadalajara & over 2.5	13.1%	12.9%	19.9%	0.65×	7.77
América & under 1.5	12.2%	12.9%	9.9%	1.29×	7.77
Draw & under 1.5	11.5%	12.9%	6.6%	1.96×	7.77
América & over 3.5	9.6%	7.9%	16.3%	0.48×	12.69
Guadalajara & under 1.5	9.0%	7.9%	6.0%	1.30×	12.69
Guadalajara & over 3.5	5.1%	7.9%	9.8%	0.81×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	4.7%	4.8%	6.0%	0.79×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	4.7%	4.8%	6.0%	0.79×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América (1UP)	56.6%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Guadalajara (1UP)	42.7%	39.4%	—	—	2.54

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América (2UP)	42.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Guadalajara (2UP)	27.0%	24.8%	—	—	4.03

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	40.2%	40.9%	—	—	2.44
América to win 2nd half	34.5%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Guadalajara to win 2nd half	25.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara (+2.5)	92.9%	92.1%	90.9%	1.01×	1.09
Guadalajara (+1.5)	80.1%	82.4%	77.1%	1.07×	1.21
América (+0.5)	73.0%	73.7%	70.7%	1.04×	1.36
Guadalajara (+0.5)	57.4%	57.0%	52.9%	1.08×	1.75
América (-0.5)	42.6%	43.0%	47.1%	0.91×	2.33
Guadalajara (-0.5)	27.0%	26.3%	29.3%	0.90×	3.80
América (-1.5)	19.9%	17.6%	22.9%	0.77×	5.68
América (-2.5)	7.1%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.64

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara to concede	72.5%	76.5%	81.9%	0.93×	1.31
Guadalajara clean sheet	27.5%	23.5%	18.1%	1.30×	4.25

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara clean sheet in 1st half	57.4%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Guadalajara to concede in 1st half	42.6%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara over 2.5 corners	81.5%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Guadalajara under 6.5 corners	72.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Guadalajara over 3.5 corners	67.7%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Guadalajara under 5.5 corners	60.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Guadalajara over 4.5 corners	53.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Guadalajara under 4.5 corners	47.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Guadalajara over 5.5 corners	39.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Guadalajara under 3.5 corners	32.3%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Guadalajara over 6.5 corners	27.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Guadalajara under 2.5 corners	18.5%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara under 3.5 goals	98.2%	97.5%	95.9%	1.02×	1.03
Guadalajara under 2.5 goals	92.4%	92.3%	86.7%	1.07×	1.08
Guadalajara under 1.5 goals	74.4%	72.0%	64.8%	1.11×	1.39
Guadalajara over 0.5 goals	62.4%	63.0%	70.9%	0.89×	1.59
Guadalajara under 0.5 goals	37.6%	37.0%	29.1%	1.27×	2.70
Guadalajara over 1.5 goals	25.6%	28.0%	35.2%	0.80×	3.57
Guadalajara over 2.5 goals	7.6%	7.7%	13.3%	0.58×	13.04
Guadalajara over 3.5 goals	1.8%	2.5%	4.1%	0.60×	40.79

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara under 1.5 in 1st half	94.1%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Guadalajara under 0.5 in 1st half	67.7%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Guadalajara over 0.5 in 1st half	32.3%	31.7%	—	—	3.16
Guadalajara over 1.5 in 1st half	5.9%	5.8%	—	—	17.36

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América (away no bet)	58.3%	57.5%	66.4%	0.87×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	41.7%	42.5%	33.6%	1.27×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara even goals	57.1%	56.9%	54.4%	1.05×	1.76
Guadalajara odd goals	42.9%	43.1%	45.6%	0.94×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	90.7%	92.2%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	9.3%	7.8%	—	—	12.82

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	53.8%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Both halves under 1.5 goals	46.2%	49.7%	—	—	2.01

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	46.4%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
América to score 2+ in a row	30.7%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Guadalajara to score 2+ in a row	19.5%	16.4%	—	—	6.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row	14.2%	12.2%	—	—	8.18
América to score 3+ in a row	9.8%	5.7%	—	—	17.50
Guadalajara to score 3+ in a row	4.6%	2.6%	—	—	37.78

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara corners (+3.5)	84.5%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
América corners (+3.5)	79.5%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Guadalajara corners (+2.5)	77.6%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
América corners (+2.5)	71.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Guadalajara corners (+1.5)	69.0%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
América corners (+1.5)	62.0%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Guadalajara corners (-1.5)	38.0%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
América corners (-1.5)	31.0%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Guadalajara corners (-2.5)	28.5%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
América corners (-2.5)	22.4%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Guadalajara corners (-3.5)	20.5%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
América corners (-3.5)	15.5%	20.3%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	40.4%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
12+ corners	30.7%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	28.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	76.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	69.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	69.3%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	60.5%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	59.6%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	50.7%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	49.3%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	40.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	39.5%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 11.5 corners	30.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	30.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 12.5 corners	23.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.2%	11.5%	11.5%	0.99×	8.73
1-0	12.2%	11.5%	9.9%	1.15×	8.73
0-0	11.5%	11.5%	6.6%	1.74×	8.73
0-1	9.0%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.48
2-0	8.6%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.48
2-1	8.4%	7.4%	10.7%	0.70×	13.48
1-2	6.4%	7.4%	8.9%	0.84×	13.48
0-2	4.9%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.46
0-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.48
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.49
1-3	2.1%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.48
1-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.49
2-2	4.1%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.47
2-3	1.3%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.48
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.49
3-0	3.7%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.47
3-1	3.6%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.47
3-2	1.8%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.48
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.49
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.49
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.48
4-1	1.2%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.48
4-2	0.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.49
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.41×	58.49
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.4%	4.81×	58.49
Any other score	1.4%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América leading at HT (DNB)	60.8%	65.6%	—	—	1.52
Guadalajara leading at HT (DNB)	39.2%	34.4%	—	—	2.91

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América or draw (1X)	73.0%	72.1%	70.7%	1.02×	1.39
América or Guadalajara (12)	69.6%	69.7%	76.2%	0.91×	1.44
Guadalajara or draw (X2)	57.4%	57.0%	52.9%	1.08×	1.76

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América or draw at HT	79.7%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Guadalajara or draw at HT	68.4%	66.5%	—	—	1.51
América or Guadalajara at HT	51.9%	47.5%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América or draw (1UP)	73.0%	80.2%	—	—	1.25
Guadalajara or draw (1UP)	57.4%	62.7%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América or draw in 2nd half	74.7%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Guadalajara or draw in 2nd half	65.5%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
América or Guadalajara in 2nd half	59.8%	59.1%	—	—	1.69

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	67.8%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Neither half drawn	32.2%	30.5%	—	—	3.28

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América (DNB)	61.2%	62.8%	61.6%	1.02×	1.59
Guadalajara (DNB)	38.8%	37.2%	38.4%	0.97×	2.69

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América to score first	50.4%	53.7%	—	—	1.86
Guadalajara to score first	38.1%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	11.5%	9.9%	—	—	10.14

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	53.7%	51.4%	40.7%	1.26×	1.95
Both teams to score	46.3%	48.6%	59.3%	0.82×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	46.3%	44.3%	32.7%	1.36×	2.26
Both score & over 2.5	32.2%	34.3%	48.0%	0.71×	2.92
Both score & under 2.5	14.2%	12.3%	11.5%	1.07×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	7.4%	8.4%	8.2%	1.02×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.5%	89.1%	82.6%	1.08×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.5%	10.9%	17.4%	0.63×	9.17

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	76.5%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	23.5%	24.8%	—	—	4.03

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	65.7%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Both score 2nd half only	20.3%	20.7%	—	—	4.82
Both score 1st half only	10.8%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	3.2%	5.0%	—	—	20.07

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	86.0%	85.9%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	14.0%	14.1%	—	—	7.08

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	54.6%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
A goal in each half	45.4%	46.5%	—	—	2.15

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.9%	47.4%	46.2%	1.03×	2.11
0-1 goals	32.7%	30.8%	22.2%	1.39×	3.25
4-6 goals	18.5%	20.2%	29.1%	0.69×	4.95
7+ goals	0.9%	1.8%	2.8%	0.64×	54.72

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara to score exactly 0	37.6%	36.0%	29.1%	1.24×	2.78
Guadalajara to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	35.9%	1.00×	2.78
Guadalajara to score exactly 2	18.0%	19.6%	22.0%	0.89×	5.11
Guadalajara to score 3+	7.6%	8.5%	13.3%	0.63×	11.82

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América to score exactly 1	35.5%	35.6%	33.4%	1.07×	2.81
América to score exactly 0	27.5%	26.5%	18.1%	1.46×	3.77
América to score exactly 2	22.9%	23.2%	26.6%	0.87×	4.30
América to score 3+	14.1%	14.3%	22.2%	0.65×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	48.1%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
América leading at HT	31.6%	33.5%	—	—	2.98
Guadalajara leading at HT	20.3%	20.0%	—	—	4.99

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América -1: 2	57.4%	56.7%	—	—	1.77
América -1: X	22.6%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
América -1: 1	19.9%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara (0:1)	57.4%	55.8%	52.9%	1.05×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	22.6%	24.3%	24.3%	1.00×	4.12
América (0:1)	19.9%	17.8%	22.9%	0.78×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara (0:2)	80.1%	82.7%	77.1%	1.07×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	12.9%	11.0%	14.0%	0.78×	9.12
América (0:2)	7.1%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.95

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara (0:3)	92.9%	92.6%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.0%	5.8%	6.0%	0.96×	17.20
América (0:3)	2.0%	2.4%	3.2%	0.74×	42.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara (0:4)	98.0%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	1.8%	0.67×	83.50
América (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	1.6%	0.75×	83.63

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América (1:0)	73.0%	72.6%	70.7%	1.03×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	16.8%	17.0%	19.0%	0.90×	5.87
Guadalajara (1:0)	10.2%	12.8%	10.5%	1.22×	7.82

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América (2:0)	89.8%	88.4%	89.5%	0.99×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.4%	6.5%	7.3%	0.89×	15.49
Guadalajara (2:0)	2.8%	2.3%	3.4%	0.67×	44.19

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.4%	49.8%	—	—	2.01
Halves equal	29.6%	26.6%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	26.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América to concede	62.4%	63.4%	70.9%	0.89×	1.58
América clean sheet	37.6%	36.6%	29.1%	1.26×	2.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América clean sheet in 1st half	67.7%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
América to concede in 1st half	32.3%	31.4%	—	—	3.19

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América over 2.5 corners	78.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
América under 6.5 corners	77.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
América under 5.5 corners	66.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
América over 3.5 corners	63.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
América under 4.5 corners	52.3%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
América over 4.5 corners	47.7%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
América under 3.5 corners	37.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
América over 5.5 corners	34.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
América over 6.5 corners	23.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
América under 2.5 corners	21.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América under 3.5 goals	95.8%	96.4%	92.4%	1.04×	1.04
América under 2.5 goals	85.9%	87.2%	77.8%	1.12×	1.15
América over 0.5 goals	72.5%	74.2%	81.9%	0.91×	1.35
América under 1.5 goals	63.0%	63.5%	51.3%	1.24×	1.58
América over 1.5 goals	37.0%	36.5%	48.7%	0.75×	2.74
América under 0.5 goals	27.5%	25.8%	18.1%	1.43×	3.87
América over 2.5 goals	14.1%	12.8%	22.2%	0.57×	7.84
América over 3.5 goals	4.2%	3.6%	7.6%	0.48×	27.42

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América under 1.5 in 1st half	89.3%	89.8%	—	—	1.11
América under 0.5 in 1st half	57.4%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
América over 0.5 in 1st half	42.6%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
América over 1.5 in 1st half	10.7%	10.2%	—	—	9.84

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.0%	51.6%	44.8%	1.15×	1.94
Guadalajara (home no bet)	47.0%	48.4%	55.2%	0.88×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América even goals	53.8%	50.6%	49.9%	1.01×	1.98
América odd goals	46.2%	49.4%	50.1%	0.99×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	39.0%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
HT 1-0	21.4%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
HT 0-1	15.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 1-1	8.6%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
HT 2-0	6.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.07
HT 0-2	3.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.39
Any other HT score	2.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.42
HT 2-1	2.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.44
HT 1-2	1.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.58

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América at HT / América at FT	24.7%	21.9%	—	—	4.57
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	20.6%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Draw at HT / América at FT	16.0%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Guadalajara at HT / Guadalajara at FT	13.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Guadalajara at FT	11.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
América at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
Guadalajara at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.78
Guadalajara at HT / América at FT	1.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
América at HT / Guadalajara at FT	1.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América to score last	50.5%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Guadalajara to score last	38.1%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	11.5%	9.2%	—	—	10.81

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	88.5%	90.8%	—	—	1.10
América to lead by 1 at any time	56.6%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Guadalajara to lead by 1 at any time	42.7%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	38.9%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
América to lead by 2 at any time	24.8%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
Guadalajara to lead by 2 at any time	14.2%	10.5%	—	—	9.51
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	12.1%	10.5%	—	—	9.55
América to lead by 3 at any time	8.5%	6.7%	—	—	15.01
Guadalajara to lead by 3 at any time	3.7%	1.6%	—	—	60.69

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara most corners	48.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
América most corners	40.9%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	10.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.7%	87.4%	86.5%	1.01×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.5%	83.5%	75.8%	1.10×	1.20
1-3 goals	69.1%	69.0%	61.8%	1.12×	1.45
2-6 goals	66.4%	68.9%	75.1%	0.92×	1.45
2-5 goals	64.5%	63.4%	70.9%	0.89×	1.58
2-4 goals	59.3%	59.2%	60.2%	0.98×	1.69
1-2 goals	49.0%	48.7%	37.7%	1.29×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.9%	48.7%	46.2%	1.05×	2.06
3-6 goals	38.7%	39.2%	53.3%	0.73×	2.55
3-5 goals	36.7%	39.1%	49.0%	0.80×	2.55
3-4 goals	31.5%	35.4%	38.4%	0.92×	2.83
4-6 goals	18.5%	18.6%	29.1%	0.64×	5.37
4-5 goals	16.6%	18.6%	24.9%	0.75×	5.37
5-6 goals	7.1%	8.7%	15.1%	0.58×	11.45
7+ goals	0.9%	2.5%	2.8%	0.90×	39.30

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
América never behind	45.8%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Guadalajara never behind	31.9%	35.6%	—	—	2.81

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.2%	50.8%	52.6%	0.97×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.8%	49.2%	47.4%	1.04×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	42.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.3%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.7%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.2%	95.5%	92.9%	1.03×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	82.2%	1.12×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	88.5%	87.7%	93.4%	0.94×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	80.6%	82.4%	68.2%	1.21×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	67.3%	66.2%	77.8%	0.85×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	60.5%	61.7%	44.1%	1.40×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	39.5%	38.3%	56.0%	0.68×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	32.7%	33.8%	22.2%	1.52×	2.96
Over 3.5 goals	19.4%	17.6%	31.8%	0.55×	5.67
Under 0.5 goals	11.5%	12.4%	6.6%	1.88×	8.10
Over 4.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	17.8%	0.44×	12.92
Over 5.5 goals	2.8%	4.5%	7.1%	0.63×	22.22

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.1%	97.2%	97.0%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.0%	97.2%	92.0%	1.06×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	91.0%	92.5%	79.3%	1.17×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	75.7%	75.9%	58.1%	1.31×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	54.7%	51.8%	71.6%	0.72×	1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	45.3%	48.2%	28.4%	1.70×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	24.3%	24.1%	41.9%	0.57×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	9.0%	7.5%	20.7%	0.37×	13.25
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.0%	2.8%	8.0%	0.35×	36.13
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.9%	2.8%	3.0%	0.93×	36.20

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.9%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	75.4%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	61.0%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	39.0%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half	24.6%	21.3%	—	—	4.69
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.1%	7.3%	—	—	13.76

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	85.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	73.0%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	61.5%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	38.5%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	27.0%	22.3%	—	—	4.49
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	14.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara not to score in both halves	85.7%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
América not to score in both halves	77.8%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
América to score in both halves	22.2%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Guadalajara to score in both halves	14.3%	14.3%	—	—	6.97

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	46.3%	50.5%	59.3%	0.85×	1.98
Only América scores	26.2%	26.1%	22.7%	1.15×	3.83
Only Guadalajara scores	16.0%	16.1%	11.7%	1.37×	6.22
Neither team scores	11.5%	10.9%	6.6%	1.66×	9.15

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.8%	25.0%	22.0%	1.13×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	21.2%	22.6%	15.8%	1.43×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	20.1%	22.6%	24.3%	0.93×	4.42
Exactly 0 goals	11.5%	12.1%	6.6%	1.84×	8.28
Exactly 4 goals	11.4%	12.1%	14.2%	0.85×	8.28
Exactly 5 goals	5.2%	7.6%	10.8%	0.70×	13.09
6 or more goals	2.8%	4.4%	7.1%	0.62×	22.68

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	38.5%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
1 goal in 2nd half	34.5%	33.5%	—	—	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	27.0%	29.8%	—	—	3.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara not to win both halves	94.7%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
América not to win both halves	88.9%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
América to win both halves	11.1%	12.0%	—	—	8.30
Guadalajara to win both halves	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.68

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara to win neither half	59.7%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
América to win either half	55.0%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
América to win neither half	45.0%	45.0%	—	—	2.23
Guadalajara to win either half	40.3%	40.5%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Guadalajara not to win to nil	84.0%	83.0%	88.3%	0.94×	1.20
América not to win to nil	73.8%	75.3%	77.3%	0.97×	1.33
América to win to nil	26.2%	24.7%	22.7%	1.09×	4.05
Guadalajara to win to nil	16.0%	17.0%	11.7%	1.45×	5.89

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	30.4%	27.6%	23.8%	1.16×	3.63
América by 1	22.6%	24.1%	24.3%	0.99×	4.14
Guadalajara by 1	16.8%	16.9%	19.0%	0.89×	5.91
América by 2	12.9%	11.8%	14.0%	0.84×	8.47
Guadalajara by 2	7.4%	7.3%	7.3%	1.00×	13.78
América by 3+	7.1%	7.3%	9.1%	0.80×	13.78
Guadalajara by 3+	2.8%	2.7%	3.4%	0.80×	36.99