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Angers v Brest — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 5 January 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

2–0
1.90 – 0.61 xG
Shots
7 – 12
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.27 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.43
Goals − xG
+0.10 – -0.62
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.11.62.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Esteban Lepaul 5' — goalIbrahima Niane 94' — goal
Angers 1.90 xGBrest 0.62 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Mahdi Camara 1' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jordan Lefort 3' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Esteban Lepaul 5' — Goal (0.53 xG, Open Play)Abdallah Sima 21' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jim Allevinah 24' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Edimilson Fernandes 26' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Abdallah Sima 38' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Niakhate Ndiaye 39' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Set Piece)Esteban Lepaul 42' — Missed Shot (0.54 xG, Open Play)Edimilson Fernandes 46' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Mahdi Camara 46' — Saved Shot (0.14 xG, Set Piece)Massadio Haidara 46' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Jim Allevinah 47' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Ludovic Ajorque 57' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Mahdi Camara 74' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Massadio Haidara 77' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Ibrahima Niane 78' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Brendan Chardonnet 80' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Ibrahima Niane 94' — Goal (0.60 xG, Open Play)
Angers attacking right Brest attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Brest Mahdi Camara 0.07 Open Play Saved Shot Ludovic Ajorque
3' Angers Jordan Lefort 0.03 From Corner Missed Shot Farid El Melali
5' Angers Esteban Lepaul 0.53 Open Play Right Foot Goal Carlens Arcus
21' Brest Abdallah Sima 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
24' Angers Jim Allevinah 0.01 From Corner Missed Shot Farid El Melali
26' Brest Edimilson Fernandes 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Niakhate Ndiaye
38' Brest Abdallah Sima 0.09 Open Play Missed Shot Kenny Lala
39' Brest Niakhate Ndiaye 0.08 Set Piece Left Foot Saved Shot Ludovic Ajorque
42' Angers Esteban Lepaul 0.54 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
46' Brest Edimilson Fernandes 0.06 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot
46' Brest Mahdi Camara 0.14 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot Edimilson Fernandes
46' Brest Massadio Haidara 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot
47' Angers Jim Allevinah 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Esteban Lepaul
57' Brest Ludovic Ajorque 0.06 Set Piece Missed Shot Romain Del Castillo
74' Brest Mahdi Camara 0.03 From Corner Missed Shot Kamory Doumbia
77' Brest Massadio Haidara 0.02 From Corner Missed Shot Kamory Doumbia
78' Angers Ibrahima Niane 0.07 Open Play Missed Shot Lilian Raolisoa
80' Brest Brendan Chardonnet 0.01 Set Piece Blocked Shot Kamory Doumbia
94' Angers Ibrahima Niane 0.60 Open Play Right Foot Goal Lilian Raolisoa

Players

Brest

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Niakhate Ndiaye DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.08 0.01 0.01
Edimilson Fernandes MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.08 0.14 0.01
Massadio Haidara DL 90 0 0 2 0 0.04 0.00 0.01
Brendan Chardonnet DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.00
Marco Bizot GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kenny Lala DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.17
Mahdi Camara MC 86 0 0 3 0 0.23 0.00 0.17
Ludovic Ajorque FW 77 0 0 1 2 0.06 0.15 0.07
Romain Del Castillo FWR 76 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.01
Abdallah Sima FWL 66 0 0 2 0 0.11 0.00 0.13
Hugo Magnetti MC 66 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kamory Doumbia Sub 24 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.06 0.00
Mama Baldé Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Romain Faivre Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ibrahim Salah Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pereira Lage Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Angers

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jordan Lefort DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.11
Haris Belkebla DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.60
Florent Hanin DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carlens Arcus DR 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.53 0.65
Emmanuel Biumla DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yahia Fofana GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Himad Abdelli AMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Esteban Lepaul FW 79 1 0 2 1 1.07 0.11 1.19
Jean Eudes Aholou DMC 79 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.07
Farid El Melali AML 79 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.05 0.53
Jim Allevinah AMR 69 0 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.65
Zinedine Ferhat Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ibrahima Niane Sub 11 1 0 2 0 0.67 0.00 0.67
Lilian Raolisoa Sub 11 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.67 0.67
Pierrick Capelle Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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