Angers v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 23
On target
3 – 11
Shots in box
6 – 14
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.02
Goals − xG
+0.96 – +1.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Angers win
21.2%
Draw
19.5%
Marseille win
59.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Angers are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLDLLDDLW last 10
scored 9
from 12.3 xG
conceded 19
from 20.3 xG
Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLWLDLWWWL last 10
scored 14
from 22.5 xG
conceded 14
from 14.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.01–1.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.12–1.85 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 57% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Angers 1.04 xGMarseille 3.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Angers attacking right
Marseille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 3' |
Marseille |
Emerson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 3' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 3' |
Marseille |
Timothy Weah | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 5' |
Marseille |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 9' |
Marseille |
Bilal Nadir | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.78 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Amir Murillo |
| 22' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hamed Junior Traore |
| 23' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Emerson |
| 33' |
Marseille |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Emerson |
| 35' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 39' |
Marseille |
Timothy Weah | 0.49 | Open Play | — | Goal | Hamed Junior Traore |
| 44' |
 Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 46' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hamed Junior Traore |
| 46' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 52' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Amine Gouiri |
| 54' |
Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Facundo Medina |
| 60' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 66' |
Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 73' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Marseille |
Matt O'Riley | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 89' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 91' |
Angers |
Jim Allevinah | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Djibirin Harouna |
| 93' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 94' |
Angers |
Djibirin Harouna | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Weah DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.35 | 2.65 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.03 | 0.88 | 1.89 |
| Emerson DML | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.49 | 1.39 |
| Amir Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.78 | 3.11 |
| Facundo Medina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.88 |
| Gerónimo Rulli GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Leonardo Balerdi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.44 |
| Bilal Nadir MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1.61 |
| Mason Greenwood AMC | 66 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Amine Gouiri FW | 65 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 1.40 | 0.53 | 1.98 |
| Hamed Junior Traore AMC | 65 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.51 | 0.63 | 1.66 |
| Igor Paixão Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Matt O'Riley Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Angel Gomes Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Vermeeren Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yassin Belkhdim AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Kouakou Herve Koffi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Haris Belkebla DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlens Arcus DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Jacques Ekomie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amine Sbaï AML | 80 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Louis Mouton AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Courcoul DMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Prosper Peter FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djibirin Harouna Sub | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| Sidiki Chérif Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Jim Allevinah Sub | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Pierrick Capelle Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Louãr Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |