Arsenal v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 23 April 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 15
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 11
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
1.46 – 1.60
Goals − xG
-0.32 – -0.51
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
57.4%
Draw
23.6%
Crystal Palace win
19.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.78–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.01–0.91 | 2-0 11% | 56% | 52% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 2.32 xGCrystal Palace 2.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Crystal Palace attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Arsenal |
Jakub Kiwior | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Martin Odegaard |
| 6' |
 Crystal Palace |
Daichi Kamada | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 6' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 7' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.50 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 9' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 22' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raheem Sterling |
| 26' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Adam Wharton |
| 29' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 30' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jurriën Timber |
| 44' |
Crystal Palace |
Marc Guehi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Daichi Kamada |
| 46' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 46' |
Crystal Palace |
Adam Wharton | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.76 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Arsenal |
William Saliba | 0.52 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
Crystal Palace |
Justin Devenny | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 64' |
Crystal Palace |
Marc Guehi | 0.40 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Daichi Kamada |
| 66' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.66 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 69' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Myles Lewis-Skelly |
| 78' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 79' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 80' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 81' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 82' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 90' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
| 91' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kieran Tierney |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Trossard FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Jakub Kiwior DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.57 |
| Gabriel Martinelli FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.42 | 0.57 |
| Thomas Partey MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Jurriën Timber DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.62 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Martin Odegaard MC | 88 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly DL | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Raheem Sterling FWR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Bukayo Saka Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.03 | 0.46 |
| Kieran Tierney Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Ethan Nwaneri Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Daichi Kamada MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.43 | 0.09 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.81 | 0.25 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.42 |
| Jefferson Lerma DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Eddie Nketiah FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Justin Devenny AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Eberechi Eze AMC | 65 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 65 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.52 | 0.07 |
| Ismaila Sarr Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.33 | 0.48 |
| Will Hughes Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta Sub | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Romain Esse Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |