Arsenal v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 4 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 5
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
13 – 3
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
2.08 – 0.24
Goals − xG
-0.99 – -0.26
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
76.3%
Draw
14.8%
Manchester United win
8.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.59–0.78 | 2-0 12% | 65% | 50% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 2.99 xGManchester United 0.26 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21' |
 Arsenal |
Thomas Partey | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 24' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.47 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Arsenal |
Oleksandr Zinchenko | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
 Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Declan Rice |
| 48' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 53' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.32 | From Corner | — | Goal | Declan Rice |
| 57' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 57' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Manuel Ugarte |
| 66' |
Manchester United |
Matthijs de Ligt | 0.13 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 71' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Arsenal |
William Saliba | 0.96 | From Corner | — | Goal | Thomas Partey |
| 74' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 76' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.19 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 82' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Manchester United |
Antony | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 88' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jakub Kiwior |
| 89' |
Arsenal |
Thomas Partey | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Declan Rice |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.96 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Kai Havertz FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Jurriën Timber DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Bukayo Saka FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| Martin Odegaard MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.66 | 0.79 |
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.42 | 0.22 |
| Thomas Partey MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.96 | 0.28 |
| Jakub Kiwior DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Martinelli FWL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko DL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Mikel Merino Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Leandro Trossard Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Jorginho Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthijs de Ligt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diogo Dalot DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Bruno Fernandes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.00 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| André Onana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Manuel Ugarte MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mason Mount AMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Alejandro Garnacho AMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyrell Malacia DML | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amad Diallo Traore Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcus Rashford Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leny Yoro Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joshua Zirkzee Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antony Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |