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Arsenal v West Ham United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 28 December 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Arsenal
0–2
2.79 – 1.60 xG
West Ham United
Shots
30 – 6
On target
8 – 3
Shots in box
18 – 4
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.27
Set-piece xG
0.38 – 0.82
Goals − xG
-2.92 – +0.40
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.62.53.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Tomas Soucek 12' — goalKonstantinos Mavropanos 54' — goal
Arsenal 2.92 xGWest Ham United 1.60 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

James Ward-Prowse 0' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Bukayo Saka 3' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Leandro Trossard 10' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Tomas Soucek 12' — Goal (0.62 xG, Open Play)Bukayo Saka 27' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Bukayo Saka 29' — Saved Shot (0.27 xG, Open Play)Ben White 34' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Gabriel Martinelli 36' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Bukayo Saka 41' — Shot On Post (0.29 xG, Open Play)Leandro Trossard 41' — Missed Shot (0.46 xG, Open Play)Mohammed Kudus 42' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Leandro Trossard 48' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Leandro Trossard 49' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Declan Rice 52' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Konstantinos Mavropanos 54' — Goal (0.06 xG, From Corner)Gabriel Jesus 57' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Bukayo Saka 61' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Bukayo Saka 63' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Jesus 64' — Saved Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Jesus 65' — Missed Shot (0.36 xG, Open Play)Declan Rice 71' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Said Benrahma 72' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Bukayo Saka 73' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Leandro Trossard 73' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Gabriel 74' — Missed Shot (0.14 xG, From Corner)Martin Odegaard 74' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Bukayo Saka 77' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Emile Smith-Rowe 85' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Martin Odegaard 86' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Eddie Nketiah 88' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Martin Odegaard 89' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Reiss Nelson 90' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Bukayo Saka 91' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)William Saliba 91' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Eddie Nketiah 92' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Said Benrahma 95' — Saved Shot (0.76 xG, )
Arsenal attacking right West Ham United attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' West Ham United James Ward-Prowse 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
3' Arsenal Bukayo Saka 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Martin Odegaard
10' Arsenal Leandro Trossard 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Gabriel Martinelli
12' West Ham United Tomas Soucek 0.62 Open Play Right Foot Goal Jarrod Bowen
27' Arsenal Bukayo Saka 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Declan Rice
29' Arsenal Bukayo Saka 0.27 Open Play — Saved Shot Gabriel Jesus
34' Arsenal Ben White 0.06 From Corner — Missed Shot Oleksandr Zinchenko
36' Arsenal Gabriel Martinelli 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Gabriel Jesus
41' Arsenal Bukayo Saka 0.29 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Martin Odegaard
41' Arsenal Leandro Trossard 0.46 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
42' West Ham United Mohammed Kudus 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
48' Arsenal Leandro Trossard 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
49' Arsenal Leandro Trossard 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Declan Rice
52' Arsenal Declan Rice 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Leandro Trossard
54' West Ham United Konstantinos Mavropanos 0.06 From Corner — Goal James Ward-Prowse
57' Arsenal Gabriel Jesus 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Oleksandr Zinchenko
61' Arsenal Bukayo Saka 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Gabriel Jesus
63' Arsenal Bukayo Saka 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Martin Odegaard
64' Arsenal Gabriel Jesus 0.35 Open Play — Saved Shot Bukayo Saka
65' Arsenal Gabriel Jesus 0.36 Open Play — Missed Shot Ben White
71' Arsenal Declan Rice 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Bukayo Saka
72' West Ham United Said Benrahma 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
73' Arsenal Bukayo Saka 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
73' Arsenal Leandro Trossard 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Martin Odegaard
74' Arsenal Gabriel 0.14 From Corner — Missed Shot Martin Odegaard
74' Arsenal Martin Odegaard 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot William Saliba
77' Arsenal Bukayo Saka 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot William Saliba
85' Arsenal Emile Smith-Rowe 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
86' Arsenal Martin Odegaard 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Gabriel Jesus
88' Arsenal Eddie Nketiah 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot —
89' Arsenal Martin Odegaard 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Bukayo Saka
90' Arsenal Reiss Nelson 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot —
91' Arsenal Bukayo Saka 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
91' Arsenal William Saliba 0.05 From Corner — Blocked Shot Martin Odegaard
92' Arsenal Eddie Nketiah 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Bukayo Saka
95' West Ham United Said Benrahma 0.76 Right Foot Saved Shot —

Players

Arsenal

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Bukayo Saka FWR 90 0 0 9 4 0.84 0.49 1.88
Gabriel Jesus FW 90 0 0 3 4 0.74 0.43 1.35
Gabriel DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.14 0.00 0.81
Martin Odegaard MC 90 0 0 3 6 0.09 0.64 1.36
Ben White DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.36 0.83
William Saliba DC 90 0 0 1 2 0.05 0.07 0.49
Declan Rice MC 90 0 0 2 2 0.05 0.04 0.65
David Raya GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Leandro Trossard MC 84 0 0 5 1 0.64 0.02 1.09
Gabriel Martinelli FWL 69 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.04 0.44
Oleksandr Zinchenko DL 69 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.10 0.20
Eddie Nketiah Sub 21 0 0 2 0 0.16 0.00 0.14
Reiss Nelson Sub 21 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.44
Emile Smith-Rowe Sub 6 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.20

West Ham United

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Tomas Soucek DMC 90 1 0 1 0 0.62 0.00 0.62
Konstantinos Mavropanos DC 90 1 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.00
Mohammed Kudus AMR 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
James Ward-Prowse AMC 90 0 1 1 1 0.01 0.06 0.01
Jarrod Bowen FW 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.62 0.62
Emerson DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Edson Álvarez DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Angelo Ogbonna DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alphonse Areola GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vladimir Coufal DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Said Benrahma Sub 58 0 0 2 0 0.88 0.00 0.12
Lucas Paquetá AML 32 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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