Arsenal v West Ham United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 October 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 4
On target
5 – 0
Shots in box
16 – 4
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.22
Set-piece xG
1.15 – 0.79
Goals − xG
-1.12 – -0.86
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
69.9%
Draw
19.2%
West Ham United win
11.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.18–0.74 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.44–0.81 | 2-0 12% | 63% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 3.12 xGWest Ham United 0.86 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
West Ham United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 West Ham United |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.56 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 4' |
 Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 4' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 7' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 9' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 12' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.79 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 32' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 34' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jurriën Timber |
| 34' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 37' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Martín Zubimendi |
| 46' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 46' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | El Hadji Malick Diouf |
| 49' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 50' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 66' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 81' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 91' |
West Ham United |
Callum Marshall | 0.23 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 95' |
Arsenal |
Ethan Nwaneri | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Gyokeres FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 1.14 |
| Bukayo Saka FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.82 | 0.92 | 1.13 |
| Jurriën Timber DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 1.18 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Declan Rice MC | 84 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.39 | 0.11 | 1.40 |
| Eberechi Eze MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Riccardo Calafiori DL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Leandro Trossard FWL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.29 |
| Martín Zubimendi Sub | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Martin Odegaard MC | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.98 |
| Ethan Nwaneri Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikel Merino Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Martinelli Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Paquetá MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.79 | 0.08 |
| Crysencio Summerville ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mateus Fernandes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jarrod Bowen MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Alphonse Areola GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niclas Füllkrug FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Soungoutou Magassa DMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Callum Marshall Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Freddie Potts Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |