Arsenal v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 August 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 9
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
12 – 6
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.37 – -0.58
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
85.5%
Draw
10.1%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
4.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 3.01–0.58 | 3-0 13% | 69% | 42% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 1.63 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 0.58 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matt Doherty | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
 Arsenal |
Ben White | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thomas Partey |
| 13' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thomas Partey |
| 14' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Thomas Partey |
| 15' |
Arsenal |
Ben White | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 17' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kai Havertz |
| 18' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 24' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.38 | Open Play | — | Goal | Bukayo Saka |
| 28' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.25 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Hee-Chan Hwang |
| 36' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 39' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 43' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 49' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 54' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 58' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thomas Partey |
| 58' |
Arsenal |
Thomas Partey | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rayan Ait Nouri | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rodrigo Gomes | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yerson Mosquera |
| 67' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 69' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 70' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 73' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kai Havertz |
| 79' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 91' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matt Doherty | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Chiquinho |
| 93' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Pablo Sarabia | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 95' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Daniel Podence | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Havertz FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0.70 | 0.10 | 0.96 |
| Gabriel Martinelli FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.50 | 0.59 |
| Thomas Partey MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.49 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Ben White DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Martin Odegaard MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.79 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Declan Rice MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.40 |
| Bukayo Saka FWR | 81 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0.52 | 0.58 | 1.11 |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko DL | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Jurriën Timber Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leandro Trossard Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Jesus Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Doherty DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Toti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mario Lemina DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Yerson Mosquera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| João Gomes DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Rodrigo Gomes AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde AMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matheus Cunha Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Daniel Podence Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Pablo Sarabia Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Chiquinho Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Craig Dawson Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |