Asteras Tripoli v Iraklis — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 7 September 2026 · GRE-Super League · 2627
GRE-Super League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 14.9%
- 0-0 12.1%
- 1-0 11.5%
- 2-0 9.6%
- 2-1 8.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 40.9% | Under 2.5 | 59.1% |
| BTTS yes | 47.6% | BTTS no | 52.4% |
| Asteras Tripoli 1+ | 75.4% | Asteras Tripoli 2+ | 40.9% |
| Iraklis 1+ | 60.1% | Iraklis 2+ | 23.4% |
Expected goals 1.40 – 0.92. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Asteras Tripoli.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 40/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Iraklis have only 2 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Asteras Tripoli have an estimated 45.9% win probability, against 31.7% for the draw and 22.4% for Iraklis. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.40 for Asteras Tripoli and 0.92 for Iraklis.
Why Asteras Tripoli
Nothing in the data singles out Asteras Tripoli.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 31.7%. A combined 2.32 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Iraklis can win
Iraklis carry the stronger rating, 1490 Elo against 1416.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Asteras Tripoli, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Iraklis, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Asteras Tripoli: 51% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Iraklis: 37% possession, 10.0 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Asteras Tripoli are the model's most likely outcome at 45.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.9%. Confidence 60/100, data quality 40/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.40–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.55–0.88 | 1-1 14% | 44% | 48% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.