Aston Villa v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 26 October 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 11
On target
8 – 3
Shots in box
13 – 5
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.72 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.97 – +0.67
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Aston Villa win
46.7%
Draw
22.1%
Bournemouth win
31.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.92–1.54 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Aston Villa 1.97 xGBournemouth 0.33 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Aston Villa attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ezri Konsa Ngoyo |
| 6' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ollie Watkins |
| 13' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 14' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 19' |
 Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 22' |
Aston Villa |
Amadou Onana | 0.38 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 22' |
Aston Villa |
Amadou Onana | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 25' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 32' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 37' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 39' |
Aston Villa |
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | John McGinn |
| 39' |
Aston Villa |
Pau Torres | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 42' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 45' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 46' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
| 46' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Smith |
| 49' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 61' |
Aston Villa |
Pau Torres | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 63' |
Aston Villa |
Jhon Durán | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
| 65' |
Aston Villa |
Jhon Durán | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 73' |
Aston Villa |
Jhon Durán | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ollie Watkins |
| 75' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Leon Bailey |
| 77' |
Bournemouth |
Milos Kerkez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 83' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 86' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Marcus Tavernier |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Dango Ouattara AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Mark Travers GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Enes Ünal FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Adam Smith Sub | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Julián Araujo DR | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Marcus Tavernier Sub | 22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Evanilson Sub | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| David Brooks Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyler Adams Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youri Tielemans MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 1.10 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 1.00 |
| Pau Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Jacob Ramsey ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.91 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 1.08 |
| John McGinn MR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.18 |
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Amadou Onana MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ross Barkley Sub | 40 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Jhon Durán Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Leon Bailey Sub | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Boubacar Kamara Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |