Aston Villa v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 19 February 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 17
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
5 – 14
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.54 – 0.08
Goals − xG
+0.95 – -0.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Aston Villa win
17.8%
Draw
21.7%
Liverpool win
60.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.10–2.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.24–2.21 | 1-2 10% | 67% | 63% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Aston Villa 1.05 xGLiverpool 2.04 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Aston Villa attacking right
Liverpool attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 4' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 5' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 17' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahima Konaté |
| 25' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 26' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 28' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Diogo Jota |
| 36' |
 Aston Villa |
Tyrone Mings | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | John McGinn |
| 37' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.40 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 38' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 39' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 47' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Goal | Lucas Digne |
| 48' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 49' |
Aston Villa |
Marcus Rashford | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 56' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 59' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 60' |
Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mohamed Salah |
| 62' |
Liverpool |
Andrew Robertson | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 62' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 68' |
Liverpool |
Darwin Núñez | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 78' |
Aston Villa |
Donyell Malen | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 92' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
| 93' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 94' |
Aston Villa |
Donyell Malen | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Tyrone Mings DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Morgan Rogers AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Axel Disasi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| John McGinn DMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.34 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 81 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| Marcus Rashford AML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Andrés García DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Marco Asensio AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Donyell Malen Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Matthew Cash Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Jacob Ramsey Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lamare Bogarde Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.57 | 0.14 | 0.72 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.52 | 0.78 |
| Andrew Robertson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.00 |
| Curtis Jones AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Diogo Jota FW | 69 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 1.05 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold DR | 69 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 0.65 |
| Darwin Núñez Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Conor Bradley Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Luis Díaz Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jarell Quansah Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |