Aston Villa v Manchester City — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 26 October 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 18
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 14
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.30 – 0.48
Goals − xG
+0.12 – -1.38
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Aston Villa win
25.9%
Draw
26.9%
Manchester City win
47.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.05–1.51 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.29–1.70 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 59% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Aston Villa 0.88 xGManchester City 1.38 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Aston Villa attacking right
Manchester City attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
 Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oscar Bobb |
| 16' |
Aston Villa |
Lucas Digne | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ollie Watkins |
| 18' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Emiliano Buendía |
| 21' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 29' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Boubacar Kamara |
| 30' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 30' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.11 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 47' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | John Stones |
| 47' |
Manchester City |
Rúben Dias | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Phil Foden |
| 48' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Phil Foden |
| 52' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 59' |
Manchester City |
Rúben Dias | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Phil Foden |
| 59' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.31 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Phil Foden |
| 67' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Phil Foden |
| 68' |
Aston Villa |
Jadon Sancho | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 68' |
Aston Villa |
Jadon Sancho | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 70' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Phil Foden |
| 71' |
Manchester City |
Nico González | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Phil Foden |
| 79' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 82' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico O'Reilly |
| 86' |
Manchester City |
Mathis Cherki | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Manchester City |
Nico González | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Manchester City |
Matheus Nunes | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rúben Dias |
| 95' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Mathis Cherki |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Phil Foden MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 0.43 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.55 |
| Josko Gvardiol DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Matheus Nunes DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Sávio ML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Tijjani Reijnders DMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| John Stones DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.44 |
| Oscar Bobb MR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Bernardo Silva MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| Nico O'Reilly Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| Nico González Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Jéremy Doku Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.29 |
| Mathis Cherki Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Omar Marmoush Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Amadou Onana DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Boubacar Kamara DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Pau Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| John McGinn AMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Emiliano Buendía AML | 28 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Evann Guessand Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ross Barkley Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Donyell Malen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |