Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 3 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 10
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
5 – 6
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+1.57 – +0.10
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Aston Villa win
59.2%
Draw
22.6%
Nottingham Forest win
18.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa have scored 16 from 16.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLLDWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 16.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.85–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.69–1.21 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Aston Villa 1.43 xGNottingham Forest 0.90 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Aston Villa attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 7' |
Aston Villa |
Ian Maatsen | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Boubacar Kamara |
| 16' |
Aston Villa |
Ian Maatsen | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ola Aina |
| 25' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Emiliano Buendía |
| 29' | Nottingham Forest | Omari Hutchinson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolás Domínguez |
| 30' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Morgan Rogers |
| 48' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Matthew Cash |
| 50' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Neco Williams |
| 51' | Nottingham Forest | Dilane Bakwa | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 53' | Nottingham Forest | Dilane Bakwa | 0.38 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 56' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.12 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dilane Bakwa |
| 63' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 65' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Aston Villa |
Jadon Sancho | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 72' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Youri Tielemans |
| 77' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 96' | Nottingham Forest | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Gibbs-White MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.02 | 0.36 |
| Omari Hutchinson MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Elliot Anderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Igor Jesus FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Nicolás Domínguez MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.45 |
| John Victor GK | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Dilane Bakwa ML | 71 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 0.69 |
| Ola Aina DR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.33 |
| Nicolò Savona Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James McAtee Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matz Sels Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Douglas Luiz Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 0.73 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.59 |
| Victor Lindelöf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Boubacar Kamara DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| John McGinn AMR | 85 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Emiliano Buendía AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Ian Maatsen DL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Lucas Digne Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.33 |
| Lamare Bogarde Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Donyell Malen Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrés García Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |