Atalanta v AC Milan — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 28 October 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 6
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
11 – 4
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.58 – 0.54
Goals − xG
-0.28 – +0.37
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atalanta win
45.6%
Draw
27.1%
AC Milan win
27.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDWLDWWL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 12
from 17.3 xG
AC Milan are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLWLWWD last 10
scored 11
from 14.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.56–1.16 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.76–1.21 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 58% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atalanta 1.28 xGAC Milan 0.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atalanta attacking right
AC Milan attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 AC Milan |
Samuele Ricci | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 5' |
 Atalanta |
Isak Hien | 0.36 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 9' |
Atalanta |
Honest Ahanor | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 10' |
Atalanta |
Ademola Lookman | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 10' |
Atalanta |
Marten de Roon | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 22' |
Atalanta |
Honest Ahanor | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 25' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Atalanta |
Honest Ahanor | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 33' |
AC Milan |
Youssouf Fofana | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Atalanta |
Ademola Lookman | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mario Pasalic |
| 41' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ademola Lookman |
| 46' |
AC Milan |
Santiago Giménez | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Samuele Ricci |
| 55' |
Atalanta |
Lorenzo Bernasconi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ademola Lookman |
| 56' |
Atalanta |
Lorenzo Bernasconi | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
AC Milan |
Alexis Saelemaekers | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
AC Milan |
Ruben Loftus-Cheek | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Strahinja Pavlovic |
| 67' |
AC Milan |
Youssouf Fofana | 0.40 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Davide Bartesaghi |
| 80' |
Atalanta |
Isak Hien | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Marco Brescianini |
| 84' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ademola Lookman |
| 85' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 87' |
Atalanta |
Yunus Musah | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Berat Gjimshiti |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youssouf Fofana MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Samuele Ricci MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Matteo Gabbia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Luka Modric MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fikayo Tomori DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davide Bartesaghi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Strahinja Pavlovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Giménez FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Rafael Leão FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christopher Nkunku Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zachary Athekame Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isak Hien DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davide Zappacosta MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 0.42 |
| Éderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Ademola Lookman FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 0.40 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Odilon Kossounou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mario Pasalic AMC | 84 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| Charles De Ketelaere FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| Honest Ahanor DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi ML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.37 | 0.14 |
| Marco Brescianini Sub | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raoul Bellanova Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Berat Gjimshiti Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Yunus Musah Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Lazar Samardzic Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.14 |