Atalanta v Sassuolo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 August 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 22
On target
7 – 8
Shots in box
8 – 12
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.59
Goals − xG
+1.08 – -1.70
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atalanta win
53.6%
Draw
25.1%
Sassuolo win
21.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDWLDWWL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 12
from 17.3 xG
Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWDWLLLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 18.0 xG
conceded 14
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.57–0.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.29–1.15 | 2-1 10% | 67% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atalanta 0.92 xGSassuolo 2.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atalanta attacking right
Sassuolo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Gianluca Gaetano |
| 9' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 9' |
 Sassuolo |
Kieron Bowie | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Josh Doig |
| 17' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gianluca Scamacca |
| 18' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 24' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Nicola Zalewski |
| 24' |
Sassuolo |
Darryl Bakola | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Simone Cinquegrano |
| 26' |
Sassuolo |
Josh Doig | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vasilije Adzic |
| 26' |
Sassuolo |
Vasilije Adzic | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 28' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Josh Doig |
| 29' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cas Odenthal |
| 30' |
Sassuolo |
Vasilije Adzic | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 31' |
Sassuolo |
Kieron Bowie | 0.51 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 35' |
Sassuolo |
Vasilije Adzic | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kieron Bowie |
| 39' |
Sassuolo |
Vasilije Adzic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 41' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Sassuolo |
Cristian Volpato | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 44' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Gaetano | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 49' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vasilije Adzic |
| 51' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Éderson |
| 54' |
Sassuolo |
Cas Odenthal | 0.52 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 59' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kieron Bowie |
| 63' |
Sassuolo |
Nemanja Matic | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 64' |
Sassuolo |
Cristian Volpato | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 68' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 69' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kieron Bowie |
| 72' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 77' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 81' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 89' |
Sassuolo |
Benjamín Domínguez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josh Doig |
| 91' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
| 91' |
Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 93' |
Sassuolo |
Simone Cinquegrano | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davide Zappacosta DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Éderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Gianluca Gaetano MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Odilon Kossounou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Giacomo Raspadori FWL | 83 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi DL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nicola Zalewski FWR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.35 |
| Mario Pasalic MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Gianluca Scamacca FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.29 |
| Nikola Krstovic Sub | 29 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.02 | 0.42 |
| Lazar Samardzic Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| Charles De Ketelaere Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Sead Kolasinac Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eljif Elmas Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 1.27 |
| Cas Odenthal DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.01 | 0.78 |
| Darryl Bakola MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Simone Cinquegrano DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.49 |
| Josh Doig DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.40 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Kieron Bowie FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.60 | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| Cristian Volpato FWR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.12 | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1.30 |
| Tommaso Macchioni DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Vasilije Adzic MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.66 | 0.07 | 0.90 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Benjamín Domínguez Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Fedde Leysen Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Riccardo Ciervo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Gabriel Kulla Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |