Atalanta v Venezia — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 1 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 8
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
16 – 4
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.55 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-3.36 – -0.36
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atalanta win
69.0%
Draw
21.1%
Venezia win
9.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDLDWLDWW last 10
scored 13
from 14.0 xG
conceded 10
from 14.2 xG
Venezia are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWDLDWLLLL last 10
scored 9
from 13.8 xG
conceded 17
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.27–0.80 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atalanta 3.36 xGVenezia 0.36 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atalanta attacking right
Venezia attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19' |
 Atalanta |
Ademola Lookman | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Éderson |
| 21' |
Atalanta |
Mateo Retegui | 0.57 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ademola Lookman |
| 24' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 24' |
 Venezia |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 26' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Cuadrado |
| 26' |
Atalanta |
Mateo Retegui | 0.38 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 36' |
Atalanta |
Ademola Lookman | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sead Kolasinac |
| 37' |
Venezia |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| 39' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 40' |
Atalanta |
Juan Cuadrado | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 45' |
Venezia |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Atalanta |
Ademola Lookman | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sead Kolasinac |
| 49' |
Atalanta |
Mateo Retegui | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Cuadrado |
| 50' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ademola Lookman |
| 52' |
Venezia |
Mirko Maric | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Venezia |
Mirko Maric | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Atalanta |
Ademola Lookman | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
Venezia |
John Yeboah | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Atalanta |
Daniel Maldini | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mateo Retegui |
| 76' |
Atalanta |
Mario Pasalic | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 82' |
Atalanta |
Ademola Lookman | 0.49 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sead Kolasinac |
| 82' |
Atalanta |
Sead Kolasinac | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Raoul Bellanova |
| 88' |
Atalanta |
Mario Pasalic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Venezia |
Issa Doumbia | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alfred Duncan |
| 94' |
Venezia |
Alfred Duncan | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cheick Conde |
Players
Venezia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio Zerbin DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikael Ellertsson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Kike Pérez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Fali Candé DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Mirko Maric FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Joël Schingtienne DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gianluca Busio MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gaetano Oristanio AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| John Yeboah Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Issa Doumbia Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Alfred Duncan Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cheick Conde Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ademola Lookman AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.76 | 1.12 | 1.52 |
| Sead Kolasinac DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.58 | 0.22 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Éderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.89 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Davide Zappacosta DML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.41 | 0.96 |
| Mateo Retegui FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.37 | 0.04 | 1.59 |
| Stefan Posch DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Charles De Ketelaere AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.03 | 1.19 |
| Juan Cuadrado DMR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| Raoul Bellanova Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Maldini Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mario Pasalic Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Lazar Samardzic Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Ruggeri Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |