Athletic Club v Espanyol — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 22 December 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 10
On target
7 – 5
Shots in box
12 – 5
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-0.76 – +1.09
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Athletic Club win
44.2%
Draw
28.0%
Espanyol win
27.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Athletic Club are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLLWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.7 xG
conceded 18
from 14.5 xG
Espanyol are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWWDWLLD last 10
scored 12
from 12.1 xG
conceded 11
from 14.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.25–0.93 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.74–0.92 | 1-0 12% | 50% | 50% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Athletic Club 1.76 xGEspanyol 0.91 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Athletic Club attacking right
Espanyol attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Athletic Club |
Andoni Gorosabel | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
 Espanyol |
Fernando Calero | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 17' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 21' |
Athletic Club |
Alex Berenguer | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Athletic Club |
Nico Williams | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andoni Gorosabel |
| 21' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico Williams |
| 25' |
Athletic Club |
Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Athletic Club |
Alex Berenguer | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nico Williams |
| 30' |
Espanyol |
Tyrhys Dolan | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Athletic Club |
Alex Berenguer | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 37' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Berenguer |
| 39' |
Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 48' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikel Jauregizar |
| 48' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 51' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Tyrhys Dolan |
| 58' |
Athletic Club |
Mikel Jauregizar | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iñaki Williams |
| 64' |
Espanyol |
Jofre Carreras | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 77' |
Athletic Club |
Alejandro Rego | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aitor Paredes |
| 80' |
Athletic Club |
Alejandro Rego | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Roberto Navarro |
| 80' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 81' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 82' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 88' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Athletic Club |
Alex Berenguer | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jesús Areso |
| 91' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alex Berenguer |
| 92' |
Athletic Club |
Unai Gómez | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Athletic Club
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Berenguer AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.99 | 0.17 | 1.15 |
| Oihan Sancet AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Mikel Jauregizar DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Unai Simón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Íñigo Lekue DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Aitor Paredes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Iñaki Williams FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| Andoni Gorosabel DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.27 |
| Adama Boiro DL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta DMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nico Williams AML | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Alejandro Rego Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Gorka Guruzeta Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Unai Gómez Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jesús Areso Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Roberto Navarro Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Fernández FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Fernando Calero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Urko Gonzalez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 86 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Edu Expósito AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| Tyrhys Dolan AMR | 85 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Pol Lozano DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Pere Milla AML | 59 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Jofre Carreras Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Kike García Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| José Salinas Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clemens Riedel Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rubén Sánchez Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |