Athletic Club v Osasuna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 21 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 8
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
5 – 6
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.97
Goals − xG
+0.50 – -1.40
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Athletic Club win
42.6%
Draw
26.7%
Osasuna win
30.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Athletic Club are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLLWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.7 xG
conceded 18
from 14.5 xG
Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLDWWL last 10
scored 12
from 15.1 xG
conceded 17
from 12.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.38–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.66–0.98 | 1-0 12% | 49% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Athletic Club 0.50 xGOsasuna 1.40 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Athletic Club attacking right
Osasuna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nico Williams |
| 15' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 15' |
Athletic Club |
Nico Williams | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alex Berenguer |
| 22' |
Athletic Club |
Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gorka Guruzeta |
| 24' |
Athletic Club |
Yuri | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mikel Jauregizar |
| 38' |
Athletic Club |
Alex Berenguer | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gorka Guruzeta |
| 52' |
 Osasuna |
Enzo Boyomo | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Víctor Muñoz |
| 56' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.74 | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 62' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rubén García |
| 63' |
Osasuna |
Lucas Torró | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Rubén García |
| 68' |
Athletic Club |
Roberto Navarro | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Aimar Oroz |
| 91' |
Osasuna |
Valentin Rosier | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 97' |
Osasuna |
Raul Moro | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Víctor Muñoz |
Players
Athletic Club
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gorka Guruzeta FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| Mikel Jauregizar DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Unai Simón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iñaki Williams AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Yeray Álvarez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Andoni Gorosabel DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Yuri DL | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Aymeric Laporte DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Alex Berenguer AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| Nico Williams AML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Roberto Navarro Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Oihan Sancet Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Rego Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dani Vivian Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adama Boiro Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ante Budimir FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Enzo Boyomo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Víctor Muñoz AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| Valentin Rosier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Javi Galán DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Sergio Herrera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Jon Moncayola DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Jorge Herrando DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Aimar Oroz AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Lucas Torró DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rubén García AMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| Raul Moro Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Iker Muñoz Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Kike Barja Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Raul García Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Moi Gómez Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |